Organization Ranking: 4
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects for 2015. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Mets prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2015, one or two prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year, and a sleeper prospect who I think can jump into the main top-100 list for 2016.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Tampa Bay Rays top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects
1. Noah Syndergaard, RHP
2. Michael Conforto, LF
3. Kevin Plawecki, C
4. Dominic Smith, 1B
5. Amed Rosario, SS
6. Brandon Nimmo, OF
7. Dilson Herrera, 2B
8. Steven Matz, LHP
9. Rafael Montero, RHP
10. Gavin Cecchini, SS
Overview
This system continues to improve each year thanks to strong drafts, an influx of international talent, and a patient front office that hasn't dealt any prospects for major-league help ... although the time has probably come for the latter. (I'd rather see that than to have them cough up a first-round pick for the embers of Michael Cuddyer's career.) As much as the system is loaded with arms -- three potential starters in the top ten, plus Gabriel Ynoa (12), Matt Bowman (13), the injured Michael Fulmer (15), and Casey Meisner (16), as well as a slew of reliever candidates -- the top tier is now dominated by bats, most of whom will play skill positions on defense.
Herrera just missed the top 100, a potential above-average regular at second base who has great bat speed and is an above-average runner, athletic enough to be a plus defender at second but more erratic there in the majors than I expected, given his history at shortstop and play at second in double-A. He should be ready to take over the position by midyear. Matz' comeback the last two years has been a great story, as he missed three years after he was drafted due to Tommy John surgery and other injuries; he's got plus velocity and an above-average to plus changeup, but the delivery's a bit mechanical and he's more control than command, probably a good-quality No. 4 starter in the end if he can stay healthy. Montero reached the majors last summer and seemed to forget who he was, overthrowing and defaulting to his slider, his third-best pitch, rather than his changeup, which will show plus. He's a command guy who has to stay within his stuff, rather than trying to pitch like a power guy; he might start 2015 in the Mets' bullpen but I still prefer him as a fourth starter type, even if he's a slower-developing prospect. Cecchini improved significantly in the last two months of 2014, once he got out of the graveyard of Savannah, showing a little more raw power than ever before and improving his plate discipline even against better competition. He's an average to above-average defender at short right now, so the glove will play, but the added strength has to result in better-quality contact or he'll end up a utility infielder.
Bowman's been a bit under the radar because he has four pitches, all 50s or 55s but nothing plus; he's not likely to maintain his strikeout rates in the majors, but as a strike-throwing groundball guy should have a nice career as a fifth or even fourth starter. Ynoa's fastball keeps climbing, now 91-95, with the secondary stuff still lagging behind, and control well over command, perhaps throwing strikes to his own detriment and giving up more contact than he has to. Fulmer is the mystery man of the system, missing the beginning and end of the year with knee injuries; he'll show three present above-average pitches in the fastball (up to 97), slider, and change, and can even spin a curveball. There's some effort to the delivery, and if the knee issues don't stop he would profile very well as a power reliever who might pitch with a 70 fastball and 70 slider. Meisner struggled early in the summer -- I got his worst outing of 2014 -- but by late August he was touching 94 with a much sharper curveball, and he has the size and angle of a Chris Young to give hitters an uncomfortable at bat even if he's not consistently getting to the mid-90s. He could be primed for a breakout year in Savannah. Their collection of relief prospects includes potential triple-A starter Cory Mazzoni, Virgin Islands native Akeel Morris (94-96 with a swing-and-miss changeup), Hansel Robles (93-96 with an inconsistent but hard slider), and Domingo Tapia.
They also have their own Jack and Mrs. Sprat with Champ Stuart, a Bahamian-born 80 runner with a decent idea at the plate and improving defense in center; and catcher Brandon Brosher, who has as much power as Stuart has speed, but whose season ended after seven games (with four homers) when he slipped in the Kingsport dugout and broke his leg.
2015 impact
The Mets could see a lot of help from within this year, as Syndergaard, Plawecki and Herrera should all be in the big leagues to stay by August, while Matz and Montero could also get the call to help in the back of the rotation. Hansel Robles should end up in the bullpen this summer as long as he throws strikes in Triple-A this spring. Matt Reynolds (14) could get some big league time at shortstop if and when the Mets tire of watching Wilmer Flores struggle there; Reynolds is just average at the position but will make the routine plays -- a better, more reliable version of Ruben Tejada who just doesn't have the power to play semi-regularly at any other spot.
The fallen
Cesar Puello was ninth in the system last year after a half-season breakout that ended with a suspension for his connection to the Biogenesis clinic; he was awful in a good hitters' park in Las Vegas and doesn't appear to have the defense or speed to play center or the power to play a corner.
Sleeper
Third baseman Jhoan Urena (11) hit only five home runs for Brooklyn this summer, but there's a lot more raw power in there, and he's going to be pretty good at third base given some more instruction. He makes a lot of loud contact and the Mets rave about his makeup, especially his enthusiasm for learning. Meisner is the breakout pitching candidate, as he finished very strongly, gradually picking up velocity and finding the feel for his curveball that was absent early in Brooklyn's season.