Organization Ranking: 3
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects for 2015. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Astros prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2015, one or two prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year, and a sleeper prospect who I think can jump into the main top-100 list for 2016.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Tampa Bay Rays top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects
1. Carlos Correa, SS
2. Mark Appel, RHP
3. Vincent Velazquez, RHP
4. Colin Moran, 3B
5. Brett Phillips, OF
6. Lance McCullers, Jr., RHP
7. Michael Feliz, RHP
8. Derek Fisher, OF
9. Josh Hader, LHP
10. JD Davis, 3B/1B
Overview
The Astros have lost as many players from their 2014 top 10 -- six -- to trades and graduations as the Detroit Tigers, who are ranked last of all MLB farm systems, did for 2015, but Houston's system was so strong already that they backfilled with enough talent to remain a top-three system. Correa is the one clear future star, while the outlook on Appel dimmed somewhat after his struggles in the California League and delivery issues with men on base, but the surge of Phillips and a solid group of college players added in the 2014 draft helped as well. McCullers is a future closer, starting with mid-90s stuff and a plus breaking ball, but he has a cross-body delivery with a long arm stroke that will probably never produce command. Feliz might also end up in the pen, in part because he's already on the 40-man roster and might run out of options before he's ready to join a big league rotation; his fastball is 94-96 mph and he's built like a starter, with a slider and changeup that are around average but wildly inconsistent. Fisher was the best player they signed from the 2014 draft -- they failed to come to an agreement with first overall pick Brady Aiken and will pick second this year -- a very athletic outfielder from Virginia who has plus raw power, a good approach and is a 70-grade runner, but who has never put it all together on the field for one full season. Hader is a future power lefty out of the bullpen, coming from near sidearm at 93-95 mph with 70-grade life, but the slider is inconsistent because he gets on the side of it and can't turn over a good changeup from that slot. Left on left, once per game, he could make some pretty good hitters flinch. Davis tied for 25th in the Midwest League in homers even though he was there for only 43 games; he's a big kid who moves around OK at third base, with the arm for right field if necessary, and he'll go as far as his hit and contact tools take him. I preferred him in the draft to A.J. Reed (14), even though the Astros took Reed a round earlier; Reed is first base-only, and he's power before hit with average bat speed at best.
Teoscar Hernandez (11) has three, maybe four above-average or plus tools, but not the one that matters: the hit tool. He swings early and often -- without discretion -- and it's going to make him an extra outfielder rather than a potential All-Star. Nolan Fontana (12) continues playing average defense at short with great on-base skills, but I do worry about the lack of power limiting him when he's facing major league fastballs all the time.
Domingo Santana (13) has been a huge disappointment -- going 0-for-18 with 14 strikeouts in your MLB debut doesn't help -- and there's real concern that he's just a 5 o'clock hitter without the aptitude to make adjustments when the games start. Max Stassi (16) had a mediocre year in Triple-A at age 23, but at least he was healthy all season; he's probably just a backup at this point, but there's enough power in there that he might have a year or two when he's good enough to be someone's regular. Osvaldo Duarte (17) is a shortstop for now but has played some center field because of his speed; his stateside debut was cut short due to a broken finger, but he has bat speed and a line-drive stroke that should produce a lot of contact. Lefty Reymin Guduan sits 95-98 mph as a starter, but he's also about to turn 23 and hasn't really gotten out of short-season ball yet; things will get interesting once the Astros stick him in the bullpen and let him go.
2015 impact
Appel should see the majors this summer, although, given his rough 2014, I wouldn't blame the Astros for taking it slow with him. I'm not a big Preston Tucker fan, but he's hit reasonably well up through Triple-A and would play better defense in left than Evan Gattis.
The fallen
Delino DeShields Jr., was the eighth overall pick in the 2010 draft, a two-time top-100 prospect and was so bad and disinterested in 2014 that the Astros left him exposed to the Rule 5 draft, in which he was selected by the Texas Rangers. Even if he comes back to Houston, it's not clear he has much of a future in the organization as a left fielder whose work ethic and effort level are seriously underwhelming.
Sleeper
Daniel Mengden (15), their fourth-round pick in 2014, pitched most of the spring with a stress fracture in his back (from spondylolysis) but should be fully healed for the spring. He pitched a little bit in their system after some time off to let his back recover, working from 92-94 mph with an above-average change and breaking ball in short stints.