Here’s a look at the Super Bowl prospects of the Kansas City Chiefs, who finished the regular season 12-4 before losing in the divisional round:
Chiefs Super Bowl barometer: Should contend, but there are question marks.
Assessing the foundation: There's nothing holding the Chiefs back from a front-office or coaching standpoint. General manager John Dorsey inherited a roster far better than the previous season's record of 2-14 would suggest when he arrived in 2013. There's little debate the Chiefs are better off now than they were when Dorsey first walked through the door. The Chiefs have built a well-stocked roster and that's allowed them to thrive even after losing players such as running back Jamaal Charles and outside linebacker Justin Houston the past two seasons for long stretches of time. Dorsey's drafts have been spotty in places, but he's found excellent value at various points in players such as cornerback Marcus Peters, defensive lineman Chris Jones, tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver/kick returner Tyreek Hill. Dorsey's philosophy of drafting in the first round at so-called premium positions has served the Chiefs well and delivered left tackle Eric Fisher, outside linebacker Dee Ford and Peters. Meanwhile, coach Andy Reid runs as solid a program as any of his colleagues. Players enjoy working with him, which is one reason the Chiefs hang on to so many of their key free agents, some at team-friendly prices. His game management is flawed at times and he deserves a share of the blame for the Chiefs' inability to move beyond the divisional round of the playoffs in each of the past two seasons. On the whole, though, the Chiefs are better positioned to make a Super Bowl run with Reid as their coach than by taking their chances with someone else.
Judging the quarterback: The Chiefs, for the first time since trading for Alex Smith in 2013 have the realistic option of moving on. They saw to that last summer when they signed veteran Nick Foles to a two-year contract. There's no indication they will make a switch, but the situation bears watching in part because Reid declined to endorse Smith as the 2017 starter. The Chiefs might decide they've gone as far as they can with Smith, who has guided the Chiefs to the playoffs in three of his four seasons in Kansas City but has a 1-3 record in those games. Smith's season was a typical one for him, though he did have a career low for a full season in touchdown passes with 15. He also had a career high with 3,502 yards and completed more than 67 percent of his passes. He led late-game comebacks against the Chargers and Broncos, the first time he's done that with the Chiefs. But with the Chiefs in easy field-goal range, he also threw end-zone interceptions against the Buccaneers and Titans, and Kansas City wound up losing each game by two points. Foles was drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles in 2012, when they were coached by Reid, and they worked together for one season before Reid moved on to Kansas City. He played better than Smith in a midseason game against the Colts in which Smith was injured. The passing game was more effective under Foles than Smith.
Realistic ways the Chiefs can improve their chances to contend for a Super Bowl:
Draft a fast, versatile running back. The Chiefs' deficiencies at running back without Charles were evident. Neither Spencer Ware nor Charcandrick West is fast enough to be an open-field threat. That's why Hill played on occasion out of the backfield late in the season.
Re-sign safety Eric Berry. He's too important both on and off the field for the Chiefs to lose him as a free agent, which he can be this year. Berry would cost the Chiefs about $13 million as their franchise player for a second straight season, but he would be worth the money. He's part of the solution, not part of the problem.
Don't stick with Smith just because he's the incumbent. The Chiefs should take the time to determine whether they are truly better off with Smith, Foles or another quarterback who might reasonably be available. Smith might well be the best choice. But the Chiefs need to be certain he's part of the solution and not part of the problem.