Sunday’s Week 15 matchup between the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars, the two 2-11 teams at the bottom of the AFC South, will make history that neither team wants to be part of.
Sunday’s game (1 p.m. ET, CBS) will be just the third divisional matchup between teams with two or fewer wins in Week 15 since 2000, according to ESPN Stats & Information. The Jaguars were also involved in a similar matchup in Week 16 of the 2014 season.
The way the teams struggled made ESPN wonder if they are better or worse than each franchise’s first ever team. Here’s a look back at those expansion seasons -- 1995 for the Jaguars and 2002 for the Texans -- with a comparison to where things stand now.
Jaguars
Best pick: In their inaugural draft, the Jaguars took offensive tackle Tony Boselli second overall, and he would go on to become the greatest player in franchise history. He made five Pro Bowls, was a three-time All-Pro, and was a member of the league’s All-1990s team. Boselli’s career was cut short by a shoulder injury, but he was so dominant for a six-year stretch that he has been a finalist for the Pro Football Hall of Fame five years in a row. The top part of the 1995 class was pretty productive. The first five picks all played at least 46 games for the Jaguars, and the team eventually traded fourth-round pick Rob Johnson to the Buffalo Bills for a pick that became running back Fred Taylor, who would become the franchise’s all-time leading rusher.
Worst pick: Hard to really label a sixth-round pick as the worst, but offensive tackle Marcus Price was the only player in the 1995 draft class who didn’t play at least one game for the Jaguars. He missed his rookie season after suffering torn ligaments in his left ankle in the third preseason game, was cut in August 1996, re-signed in February 1997 and then was cut again in August 1997. He would go on to play 77 games in the NFL for Buffalo, the New Orleans Saints and the San Diego Chargers.
Best player: Boselli was very good as a rookie, but quarterback Mark Brunell, whom the Jaguars acquired from the Green Bay Packers for third- and sixth-round picks before the 1995 draft, was a pleasant surprise. He played in the first two games in relief of Steve Beuerlein before taking over as the starter in Week 3. Brunell started 10 games, completed 58% of his passes for 2,168 yards and 15 touchdowns with seven interceptions. He was also third on the team in rushing (480 yards). He would go on to join Boselli, Taylor, and receiver Jimmy Smith in the Pride of the Jaguars.
Record: 4-12
What went wrong in 1995? The Jaguars had a small group of players who would go on to carry the team to the AFC title game in 1996 and again in 1999, but they were young and needed time to develop. The Jaguars had a hard time scoring points (27th in the NFL) and moving the ball (28th) and were one of the league’s most undisciplined teams (committed the third-most penalties). The offense would take off the following season, but it had to find its way first.
What went wrong in 2021? It wouldn’t be hyperbole to say everything, but by far the biggest issue was coach Urban Meyer, who was fired late on Wednesday. He didn’t know which players were on the field or why they weren’t, was the subject of a continuous stream of reports of dysfunction or tension between him and players and assistant coaches, and embarrassed the franchise when viral videos emerged of him behaving inappropriately in a restaurant/bar with a woman who is not his wife. Couple all that with an offense, even with taking generational quarterback Trevor Lawrence No. 1 in the 2021 draft, that peaked in Week 6 and has eroded steadily since (averaging just 9.1 points per game in their last seven games). Also, the offensive line has been up and down, there's been 24 dropped passes and the receivers have been struggling to gain separation. All of that equals disaster. Frankly, it’s amazing the Jaguars have somehow managed to win two games.
Which was the better team? By the end of the inaugural season the Jaguars knew they had their quarterback, which is obviously the most important piece, and he had shown flashes that he could become a Pro Bowl-caliber player. And while the 1995 Jaguars weren’t very good, they were playing close games: eight of their 12 losses were by 10 or fewer points. This year’s team is on pace to have the worst scoring offense in franchise history, the quarterback’s development has been stunted by the offensive scheme and a lack of weapons, and only three of its 11 losses have been by 10 or fewer points. Take the 1995 Jaguars.
Reason for optimism: The play of Brunell, Boselli, running back James Stewart and a few other players gave the fan base hope that there were building blocks in place, and with a few more pieces, the team could eventually win games and compete for the playoffs. That should be the case this year with Lawrence, running back James Robinson, defensive end Josh Allen, linebacker Myles Jack and cornerbacks Shaquill Griffin and Tyson Campbell, but the biggest reason is that Meyer and the toxic atmosphere he created is gone. With the right hire and savvy moves in free agency and the draft, the team can quickly put pieces in place for Lawrence to begin to flourish. He’s the most physically gifted QB the franchise has ever had, and his poise and unshaken confidence throughout the mess of 2021 makes you believe he’s going to eventually become the player everyone envisioned.
Texans
Best pick: There were actually a few strong contenders to pick from, but the best might have been cornerback Aaron Glenn. Glenn was Houston's third pick in the expansion draft after spending his first eight seasons with the New York Jets. The cornerback was one of two players to make a Pro Bowl with his expansion team. The Texans' next pick, defensive tackle Gary Walker, was the other. Glenn spent three seasons in Houston and had 11 interceptions.
Worst pick: The aforementioned Tony Boselli. Boselli, Houston’s first pick of the expansion draft, was supposed to be a key player on this team, eventually protecting quarterback David Carr’s blindside. But the left tackle, who made five Pro Bowls in his seven seasons in Jacksonville, retired before ever playing for Houston because of the shoulder injury.
Best player: The best player on the 2002 team may have been Jeff Posey, a linebacker who signed with Houston in 2002 and fit well in coach Dom Capers’ 3-4 scheme. He played only one season for the Texans, but he led the team with eight sacks. In 16 games, Posey had 60 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, 1 interception and 6 passes defensed. The 2002 season was a career campaign for Posey, who signed a four-year contract with the Bills the next offseason.
Record: 4-12
What went wrong in 2002? Because Boselli never played for Houston, the Texans couldn’t protect Carr. Houston used its second pick in the expansion draft on right tackle Ryan Young, who tore a groin muscle during training camp and missed the first five games of the season. That season, Carr was sacked 76 times and had 12 fumble recoveries, both still NFL single-season records. Carr played five seasons for Houston, but it’s not hard to wonder what his career could have looked like had he been playing behind a competent offensive line.
What went wrong in 2021? There’s a laundry list of issues that need to be corrected in Houston, but that’s something that comes when you’re in the middle of a team rebuild. After an offseason in which quarterback Deshaun Watson asked to be traded and then was accused of sexual assault and inappropriate behavior in 22 civil lawsuits, the Texans’ offense took a huge step back. Because Watson does not want to play for the team, the Texans went from Tyrod Taylor to 2021 third-round pick Davis Mills, and through 14 weeks, Houston is averaging a league-low 13.6 points per game.
Which was the better team? The 2002 team. The two teams were built differently, and right now, the Texans don’t have many veteran playmakers on the roster. General manager Nick Caserio has had only one draft in Houston, so it’s too early to know how his draft picks will pan out. But while the Texans’ expansion team mostly struggled because they couldn’t protect Carr, the 2021 team has quite a few more holes to fill this offseason. It took 10 seasons before the franchise won its first division title. Team CEO and chairman Cal McNair hopes it won’t be quite as long before Houston is back atop the AFC South.
Reason for optimism: For just the second time since 2017, the Texans will have a first-round pick. And for the first time since Houston drafted Jadeveon Clowney with the No. 1 pick in 2014, the Texans will have a top-10 pick. Of course, a high draft pick doesn’t guarantee finding a star player, but Caserio may have quite a few shots at it. Caserio has been building up the Texans’ draft capital through trades since he took over, and he may make the biggest move of his career this offseason -- trading Watson. While there’s no timeline for a Watson trade because of his legal situation, if the Texans can find a trade partner, it would make sense for a deal to get done before the draft.