From regular-season conference leaders such as Green Bay, Iona and Vermont, to long shots with slingshots such as Denver and St. Mary's, we have already seen all kinds of Giant Killers swallowed by the gaping maw of championship week. What potential remains for upsets, and which Cinderellas are stepping forward? Glad you asked.
Here are the top 10 potential Giant Killers, according to our statistical model. We have limited ourselves to looking only at teams that could face Giants in the Round of 64, meaning they could plausibly earn 11-seeds or below. And we've ranked them by their Giant Killer rating, which measures the estimated likelihood they could beat a typical Giant, on a scale from zero to 100.
Pittsburgh Panthers (GK rating: 40.8)
Pitt falls squarely into a category we call "wounded assassins" -- teams, usually from power conferences, that have failed so thoroughly to meet expectations that they fall to a low seed but retain the talent to knock off a Giant. The Panthers got off to an 18-2 start, then stumbled and won just four of their next 10 games as they faced tougher competition. And last weekend, when one more loss might have pushed them out of NCAA tournament contention entirely, they barely eked out an overtime victory against Clemson to close their regular season. At this point, Pittsburgh is running fifth in a conference that most fans and analysts believe has four good-to-great teams. But the numbers don't match that public perception.
Our statistical model still sees Pitt as a top-20 team, with a highly efficient offense (115.5 points per 100 possessions, ranking 17th in the country) keyed by outstanding offensive rebounding. And we're not alone; the Panthers rank 15th in BPI and 21st on KenPom.com. Now consider: North Carolina has the same record as Pitt (23-8), is seeded one spot higher in the ACC tournament and beat Pitt by all of four points last month (in Chapel Hill), yet somehow UNC is now in line for a seed six or seven slots higher in the NCAA tournament. Yes, Carolina has more wins over strong teams. But if Pitt falls to an 11-seed, they'll be in line to pull off a new, quality win of their own: a Giant killing.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (GK rating: 40.4) or Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (GK rating: 27.8)
By a hideous twist of fate, these teams -- two of the best Giant Killers in the country -- both play in Conference USA, where there's no guarantee a second bid will make it to the NCAA tournament. Making things even worse, they, along with Tulsa and Middle Tennessee, each finished the regular season with a 13-3 conference record -- and C-USA resolved the four-way tie by seeding Louisiana Tech first and Southern Miss fourth in the conference tournament. This means its two best teams will likely meet in the semifinals, really burying the loser. So the next three days are even more boom or bust than usual for Southern Miss, one of the most entertaining high-risk/high-reward squads in the country.
The Golden Eagles press and trap constantly, forcing turnovers on nearly a quarter of opponent possessions (24 percent, ranking sixth in the country). They run a high-low motion offense with lots of screens and shoot effectively from all over the place. They crash the boards and position for an amazing share of offensive rebounds (38.6 percent, ranking 11th), given their severe lack of size (Effective Height: minus-3.3 inches). They're sloppy -- they like to chuck the ball -- and below average from the free-throw line. But they're built to generate extra possessions. And as an underdog, they would bring a heck of a lot more to the NCAA tournament than the seventh team from the Atlantic 10 or Pac-12.
Louisiana Tech's case is even stronger: Limiting opponents to shooting just 29.6 percent from behind the arc (ranking ninth) and grabbing turnovers on 23 percent of opponent possessions (ranking 10th), the Bulldogs yield only 94.8 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for strength of opponents, the 23rd best rate in the country. Overall, they're No. 35 in our basic power rankings, between Harvard and New Mexico. And in junior point guard Kenneth "Speedy" Smith, they've got a steals-and-assists machine. Smith could be an early-round star of the NCAA tournament -- but first, Louisiana Tech needs to get in.
Tennessee Volunteers (GK rating: 36.5)
Absurdly enough, Tennessee appears to be just on the right side of the bubble, though they are the No. 20 team in the country, according to our basic power rankings. The Vols have had their ups and downs, but many of the ups have been blowout wins -- which are hard to rack up when you average just 65 possessions per game -- while most of the downs have been close losses to good teams, and silly RPI, which doesn't incorporate margin of victory, punishes them as a result. Jeronne Maymon and Jarnell Stokes each grab a huge 15 percent of possible offensive rebounds while they're on the floor, tied for 15th among all NCAA players. And Tennessee's team rate of 40.3 percent (fourth-best in the nation) will keep them in games against anyone.
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (GK rating: 28.1)
Here's why you read Giant Killers: to see whether, among all the bottom-feeding conferences with confusingly similar names (such as Big South, Southland, Southern and Southwestern Athletic), some unheralded team might be primed to rocket through your brackets. Well, this is the one. Stephen F. Austin, out of Nacogdoches, Texas, has played a schedule that ranks a lowly 325th in the country, according to our basic power rankings.
But the Lumberjacks, who have won 29 straight games, have destroyed their opponents. More importantly, they play like classic, successful Killers of the past: They generate turnovers (24.7 percent of opponent possessions, ranking third in the NCAA) while protecting the ball, they shoot a lot of 3-pointers and they position well for loads of offensive rebounds (38.7 percent of missed shots). We have sung Stephen F. Austin's praises here and here; now, it just need an NCAA matchup where its extreme lack of size isn't a crushing disadvantage.
Minnesota Golden Gophers (GK rating: 27.0)
They're playing a very different style from last season under Tubby Smith, when Minnesota led the nation in offensive rebounding percentage (43.8 percent) and did our model proud by knocking off 6-seed UCLA in the NCAA tournament. But under Richard Pitino, the Gophers still have Killer traits: They shoot a lot of 3-pointers, are above average at hitting them and remain effective on the offensive glass. Most importantly, they've got half a dozen players who steal the ball on more than two percent of opponent possessions apiece (11.4 percent as a team, ranking 23rd in the NCAA).
But Minnesota needs to do some damage in the Big Ten tournament to secure its dance card; at the moment, Joe Lunardi has them listed among his "first four out."
Oklahoma State Cowboys (GK rating: 23.1)
The thing is, Oklahoma State doesn't play much like successful Giant Killers of the past. The Cowboys grab just 28 percent of missed shots (ranking 279th in the country), and they're heavily reliant on free throws (25.2 percent of points, ranking 35th). But with an offense that shoots well from anywhere and protects the ball, and a defense that stops opponents inside and outside and generates turnovers, they're simply a better team than most Killers. In fact, they're a better team than half of Giants, ranking 14th in the country according to our basic power rankings (and 18th in BPI, and 20th on KenPom.com).
Oklahoma State is an object lesson in the reasons why poll voters and selection committees underrate teams: recent losses, close losses, negative publicity. But especially now that Marcus Smart is back, none of those negatives should dent the fact that the Cowboys are stronger, by a substantial margin of 3.6 points, than the best 11-seed in our database (Minnesota in 2013).
Boise State Broncos (GK rating: 20.7)
They've got the hardest road to get a bid of any team on this list: The Broncos have essentially zero chance to make the NCAA tournament unless they beat each of the top three teams in the Mountain West Conference over the next three days. But there's hope, because as a Killer, Boise State is as good as, or better than, any team in the MWC. You can find its interior defense diagrammed on the side of milk cartons these days, but its 3-point shooting and avoidance of turnovers generates 113.7 points per 100 possessions, ranking 28th in the NCAA.
Inspirational quote, from commenter Nathan Morais: "We started the season as a borderline top 25 team and now we may not even make the NIT. This season has been a nightmare...That really sucks since I'm sure this team is one of the 64 best teams in the country...Well, go Broncos. The season is not over yet."
Harvard Crimson (GK rating: 20.0)
The best and deepest of Tommy Amaker's Crimson teams, Harvard would be a worthy NCAA entrant even if it hadn't won its third straight Ivy League title last week. Indeed, our model might underestimate the Crimson for two reasons. Historically, most successful Killers have been good at defending 2-point attempts or 3-point attempts; Harvard is effective at both, and gives up just 96.2 points per 100 possessions (ranking: 32nd in the NCAA). And while Harvard is terrific from the outside (39 percent on 3-pointers, ranking 22nd), our model sees that they take only 23.7 percent of their shots from downtown. It doesn't know the Crimson successfully jacked up that percentage against New Mexico in the NCAA tournament last season, increasing the variability and efficiency of their scoring. If they can do that again, they'll be a dangerous Killer.
On the other hand, our model also doesn't know how to account for how Ivy Leaguers might succumb to the bright lights of big-time athletic success. This story, for example, makes the incendiary claim that since Amaker came to town, the Crimson have been seen in photographs with "former Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell...[Harvard] President [Drew] Faust; and Michael Dukakis, the 1988 Democratic nominee for president." How could there be a more dangerous distraction than having Mike Dukakis as a groupie?
Dayton Flyers (GK rating: 18.6)
Just the fifth-best team in the Atlantic 10, but the second-best Killer, thanks to strong offensive rebounding (35.9 percent of missed shots, ranking 39th in the NCAA) and excellent 3-point shooting (37.5 percent, ranking 64th), which amps their offensive efficiency to a top-30 113.6 points per possession. Watch out for shooting guard Jordan Sibert, who left Ohio State after riding the bench as a sophomore in 2011-12, and after sitting out a year, hit 44 percent of his bombs (73-165) for Dayton this season. That includes 65 percent (11-for-17) in the Flyers' three straight wins over tough conference opponents this month -- the kind of performance that can land a guy on our All-Giant Killers team. "Where is Ohio State's shooting?" the Cleveland Plain Dealer asked, and answered: "It transferred to Dayton."
Eastern Kentucky Colonels (GK rating: 18.6)
We've had this statistically nutty team on our radar since last year, and this time around, they've made the NCAA tournament, beating Murray State and upsetting Belmont in the Ohio Valley tourney to get to the big dance. Eastern Kentucky is just 3.7 points better than an average NCAA team after adjusting for its weak strength of schedule. But coach Jeff Neubauer, who played for La Salle from 1989 to 1993 during its Lionel Simmons heydey, credits former Explorers coach Speedy Morris with teaching him about the need to play high-risk/high-reward ball. And Neubauer has installed a frenetic, guard-centric system, heavy on defensive pressure and 3-point bombs on offense. Nearly 44 percent of the Colonels' shots are from downtown, and they hit on 38.6 percent of them -- and on 56.2 percent of their 2-point attempts, second-best in the country, because they pass so often to open men.
They don't hit the boards on either end, and with an Effective Height of minus-3.0 inches (ranking 325th), they are highly vulnerable to blocks and to inside shooting. But by playing like successful Killers of the past, Eastern Kentucky adds nearly a dozen points to its strength against Giants. And they're a ton of fun to watch.
Honorable Mention: Georgia State Panthers (GK rating: 16.0)
They don't rebound, at all, but they've got playmakers. They force steals on more than 12 percent of opponent possessions, protect the ball better than any team in the country and can shoot from anywhere. And as word gets out -- and as inferior teams lucky to win conference tournaments fill in the 16- and 15-seeds, Georgia State bumps up to a 14 or even a 13. If our model could affect an unassuming shrug, it would remark, "I'm just sayin'."