Detroit Lions general manager Bob Quinn has laid out his goals for his NFL draft picks many times: His hope is that they contribute in some way as a rookie, and if not, by their second year at the latest. It’s how he judges his picks.
And using that metric, it’s been an interesting guide to Quinn’s first four drafts. In his fifth draft with the Lions, he’ll have a higher pick than ever before -- No. 3 overall -- and four picks in the top 100. In Mel Kiper Jr.'s latest mock draft, he has the Lions taking Ohio State defensive back Jeff Okudah.
Looking at Quinn's previous drafts could tell us what might happen next week.
The first round
Quinn has never been flashy in the first round. He has twice gone with offensive linemen -- Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow -- and he took linebacker Jarrad Davis in 2017 and tight end T.J. Hockenson last season.
While it’s too early to judge Hockenson, Ragnow is probably the best of the bunch. Ragnow has been extremely effective over his first two seasons, and he could develop into a Pro Bowl-caliber player before long. He likely will man the middle of Detroit’s offensive line for a long time and be a piece the Lions can build around. Ragnow was absolutely, in retrospect, the right call.
Decker has been mostly good throughout his first four seasons, although he missed the first half of the 2017 season with a shoulder injury. The Lions will soon have a decision to make on whether to give him an extension as he enters the last year of his contract, but Decker has been good enough that as long as the demands aren’t outrageous, they should be considered.
Was Decker the right pick looking at it now? The two players taken after him -- safety Keanu Neal and center Ryan Kelly -- both made the Pro Bowl. But offensive tackle was a massive need at the time, and Germain Ifedi was the next tackle taken at No. 31. So yes, the Lions made the right call then, even with the benefit of hindsight.
Davis has been average. How the Lions choose to use him this season after the additions of Jamie Collins Sr. and Reggie Ragland could give a glimpse to his future. Linebacker was a clear need then, but in hindsight, Detroit could have gone with T.J. Watt in that case or looked at cornerback Tre'Davious White or running back Dalvin Cook, all of whom would have filled needs and ended up in Pro Bowls.
Overall, Quinn has been consistent in taking high-character, high-floor players who maybe don’t have incredibly high ceilings. He also has gone about filling needs in the first round.
The second round
Like his predecessor, Martin Mayhew, Quinn has struggled here. If his tenure ends up in failure, the second-round misses will be a big part of that.
Defensive tackle A'Shawn Robinson never materialized into what Detroit hoped he would be. He became a one-dimensional run-stopper who rarely made an impact on a game with 16 career tackles for loss and five sacks. He had become adept at batting down passes during his first two seasons, but the skill disappeared once he went to Matt Patricia’s defense. Robinson left this offseason in free agency for the Los Angeles Rams. Taken in the 10 picks after Robinson: New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas, Atlanta Falcons linebacker Deion Jones and Cincinnati Bengals wideout Tyler Boyd.
Teez Tabor never found a role as a corner, and his speed was a continuous issue. Considering Quinn said he watched more film of Tabor than any prospect he could remember to that time, it is his worst selection. Detroit could have gone many different ways and made a better selection, including defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson.
Kerryon Johnson has shown promise when healthy, but he has been limited to 18 games in two seasons and 1,044 career yards. This year will be huge for him and his future in Detroit. Linebacker Jahlani Tavai was a surprising pick at the time, but he has ended up working out so far and should have a bigger defensive role in 2020.
Third round
Quinn is a dynamic third-round drafter.
Graham Glasgow was a solid four-year starter for Detroit on the interior of the offensive line. The Lions inexplicably let him go to the Denver Broncos in free agency last month, but Glasgow was the team’s most reliable offensive lineman in Quinn’s tenure with 58 games started, and he ended up being the right pick.
The following season, Quinn grabbed Kenny Golladay, who has become one of three Pro Bowl receivers from this class. He has topped 1,000 yards over the past two seasons, and he led the NFL in touchdowns with 11 last year. Golladay is in line for a massive extension this offseason and is Quinn’s best overall pick.
At the time, Quinn's pick of defensive back Tracy Walker was a reach to everyone -- including Walker, who thought he was going in the fifth round -- but it has made Quinn look good thus far. Walker slid into a starting role last season and responded with 103 tackles, eight passes defensed and an interception. Two Pro Bowlers went pretty soon after him (Orlando Brown Jr. and Mark Andrews to the Baltimore Ravens), but Walker is expected to be a key piece for Detroit over the next few years. Last season’s pick, Will Harris, ended up as a part-time starter, but he is a player who is expected to have a bigger role in 2020, either in three-safety looks or as a starter.
Day 3 picks
The depth of good teams can be built here, and Quinn has found some strong picks on the final day of the draft.
Snagging defensive lineman Da'Shawn Hand at No. 114 in 2018 might end up being a steal if Hand can return from an injury-plagued 2019 to find his rookie form. Jamal Agnew ended up an All-Pro returner as a rookie in 2017 at No. 165, but he hasn’t been a key defender.
Joe Dahl, who was a project offensive lineman at No. 151 in 2016, turned into a starter last season and signed a contract extension. Tyrell Crosby, the No. 153 pick in 2018, started games at left and right tackle last season, and he has found a role as Detroit’s swing lineman. If cornerback Amani Oruwariye (No. 146, 2019) builds off a decent rookie season, he could end up being Quinn's best Day 3 pick, especially if he wins a starting job this year. Miles Killebrew (No. 111, 2016) and Jalen Reeves-Maybin (No. 124, 2017) ended up as core special-teams players who filled reserve roles -- with Killebrew earning a second contract this offseason.
Among the misses: Long-snapper Jimmy Landes (No. 210, 2016) never played a game, and he is out of the league. Antwione Williams (No. 169, 2016) never panned out. Anthony Zettel (No. 202, 2016) had potential, but a scheme switch after the coaching change made him expendable.
Quinn has shown ability to find talent on the third day, just not high-impact players. Hand, Oruwariye and last year’s fourth-round pick, Austin Bryant have potential.
Overall analysis
Quinn has been a decent drafter. He has found some average to above-average NFL starters but only one potential star in Golladay. This year, he has a chance to change that with a top 5 pick.
Three players from his first class remain on the roster (Decker, Killebrew, Dahl), and eight are still in the league overall. Detroit has four players from his 2017 class (Davis, Golladay, Reeves-Maybin, Agnew) and his entire 2018 draft. All but seventh-round pick PJ Johnson are on the team still from last year, and Detroit needs improved seasons from its top five picks in 2019 (Hockenson, Tavai, Harris, Bryant, Oruwariye) to take a leap in 2020.
Quinn has selected offensive linemen well. Three of his expected 2020 starting line are his picks. He has been good at evaluating safeties (Walker, Harris and Killebrew). Defensive linemen have been a struggle. Only Hand remains on the roster as a true defensive lineman, with Jeremiah Ledbetter, Patrick O'Connor, Zettel, Robinson and Johnson all elsewhere.
The GM also been OK at finding undrafted rookies. None has gone on to become surefire starters, but Charles Washington, Mike Ford, C.J. Moore and Kevin Strong all have brought value over the years.
What does it mean for 2020? Quinn needs to hit at a bit better rate than he has in the past, while also finally finding the elusive immediate impact star he has been unable to uncover through his first four seasons of running the Lions.