Here’s a look at the Super Bowl prospects of the Detroit Lions, who finished the regular season 9-7 before losing in the wild-card round:
Detroit Lions Super Bowl barometer: Middle of the pack
Assessing the foundation: It’s tough to gauge the true foundation, as Bob Quinn just completed his first season as the team’s general manager. Many of Quinn’s moves during his first year, though, would indicate he has a clear plan. He knew he would have to build depth on the roster, and he made a bunch of moves to accomplish that. In doing so, he also improved the Lions’ special teams, often a key to overall team success. He had a strong first draft, something the Lions can feel good about with their front office as a whole. The coaching situation is a little bit murkier. Yes, Jim Caldwell has reached a Super Bowl before as a head coach (and won two as an assistant coach), but it’s not clear yet whether he can get Detroit close to that. The foundation of the franchise, of course, will have the albatross of one playoff win in 60 seasons and no division titles since 1993 until they change that. The most telling thing -- and some of it is coachspeak -- is how far they are from winning a Super Bowl. Caldwell said in his season-ending news conference that the Lions were “a ways away” from winning a Super Bowl. They aren’t quite that far away -- there are strong pieces there -- but the window right now is starting to shrink, particularly with some of the defensive players the Lions have. This is a huge offseason for Quinn if he wants to build Detroit into a contender. Finding a run game and upgrades in the offensive line and on defense would be a start.
Judging the quarterback: The Lions should sign Matthew Stafford to a long-term extension at some point this offseason. He has all of the physical tools to lead a team to a Super Bowl, and this season his decision-making improved. His finger injury might cloud how people view him in the short term, but his development this season should give the Lions confidence they have a signal-caller who can carry them when necessary. As long as Stafford is Detroit’s quarterback, the Lions will have a shot at being a playoff team, and therefore a Super Bowl contender. Stafford should be Detroit’s quarterback for the foreseeable future -- perhaps the next seven to 10 years -- so that’s a stable, settled situation. Those behind him are a little bit of a question. Jake Rudock is going to have a chance to win the No. 2 quarterback job, but not much is known about the former Michigan and Iowa quarterback. Detroit will probably bring in a quarterback to compete with Rudock for the backup job in hopes of stabilizing the position. There’s always a chance Detroit brings Dan Orlovsky back for another season, but if that happens, it would probably be an open competition with Rudock for the No. 2 gig. But the Lions aren’t looking to unseat Stafford anytime soon.
Realistic ways the Lions can improve their chances to contend for a Super Bowl:
1. Pick up more consistent pass-rushers to complement Ezekiel Ansah and Kerry Hyder. The Lions need more in the front four besides those two and tackle A'Shawn Robinson. Haloti Ngata is in the final years of his career, and the 2016 season showed how deficient the pass rush was. Yes, some of that is scheme-related, but Detroit had a pass rush in 2014 and 2015 in essentially the same defense.
2. Decide if Caldwell is really the right coach for the job. He’ll be back in 2017, but after that, the Lions need to determine whether he is a guy the franchise can see taking them to the Super Bowl -- and winning it. If they don't, it’s time to move on, no matter what his record is next season; if they do, then continue building toward what he wants, which the Lions have been doing the past three seasons.
3. Stabilize the run game. This kind of runs counter to what Caldwell has done throughout his head-coaching career and what the Lions have mostly been about since Barry Sanders retired. But this is a way for Detroit to take some pressure off Stafford and add another dimension to the offense. The 2017 season will be critical for evaluating whether Ameer Abdullah or Zach Zenner can be a lead running back -- or if a combination of both can be successful. If the answer is yes, that could make the Lions true contenders in 2017. If not, they’ll likely be in a similar spot -- or worse -- next offseason.