Here’s a look at the Super Bowl prospects of the Dallas Cowboys, who finished the regular season 13-3 before losing in the divisional round:
Super Bowl barometer: The Dallas Cowboys are on the cusp of a Super Bowl appearance.
Assessing the foundation: The Cowboys came within a stop on third-and-20 in the final minute against Aaron Rodgers of advancing to the NFC Championship Game. They easily could be representing the NFC in Super Bowl LI. Owner Jerry Jones has done a good job of listening to his football people, including Stephen Jones and Will McClay, and coach Jason Garrett found ways to push buttons to keep the team emotionally ready. Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan should be praised for his work with quarterback Dak Prescott, and defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli found ways to come up with key plays with a unit that had several questions. The Cowboys have a young team with cornerstone players such as Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, Ezekiel Elliott, Prescott and Dez Bryant. They have excellent veterans in Jason Witten and Sean Lee, plus a core of solid role players who could develop into front-end starters, like Maliek Collins. The Cowboys are close, but they can't think they are one player away and make risky signings that can upset the balance in the locker room (see Greg Hardy, 2015). They need to continue to build through the draft while making smart free-agent decisions. But the key pieces are in place for the Cowboys to contend in 2017 and beyond.
Judging the quarterback: At around this time last year the Cowboys introduced themselves to Dak Prescott at the Senior Bowl and came away impressed. All he did was have what Jones called the best season by a rookie quarterback in NFL history. It's hard to argue when you look at Prescott's numbers, most notably the 13 wins. But he also had 23 touchdown passes and just four interceptions. He ran for six touchdowns, a team record by a quarterback. He was sound with his decisions and made plays at key moments. He has plenty to work on, such as footwork and anticipation that should improve the more he plays and gets comfortable. He is helped by having the best offensive line in football and Elliott, who led the NFL in rushing in 2016 with 1,631 yards. In 2006, the Cowboys stumbled into Tony Romo, an undrafted rookie in 2003, and saw him set team records for touchdown passes, passing yards and 300-yard games. In many ways Romo carried the Cowboys when they did not have great offensive line play or a running game. Prescott won't have to carry the Cowboys in the same way, but he will need to progress in the passing game as he goes on. There's no reason to think he can't do it.
Realistic ways the Cowboys can improve their chances to contend for a Super Bowl:
Help the defense. The Cowboys know they will be strong offensively with the tools at their disposal but they need to make commitments to the pass-rush and secondary. It doesn't have to be pricey signings. They can do it through the draft or with smart free-agent moves.
Hope Jaylon Smith is a player. He would have been a top-five pick if not for his serious knee injury. If he can perform close to his Notre Dame level, the Cowboys will have a tremendous linebacker duo with Lee and Smith. He might be as athletically gifted as any Cowboys defender since DeMarcus Ware.
Ride Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys never got the chance to see what DeMarco Murray could do after his 1,845-yard season in 2014. With Elliott, they know they have a back who can alter defenses, impact their passing game and affect their defense in a positive way. Teams have de-emphasized running backs in recent years, but Elliott is a difference-maker on par with Adrian Peterson.