For NHL trade junkies, it’s a good sign. Teams are starting to have their pro scouting meetings, where NHL scouts gather together with management to share ideas and come up with a game plan before the March 1 trade deadline.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that all the planning in the world isn’t going to change the reality of the current NHL landscape. Nearly every team is still in a playoff hunt. Most teams are close to the salary cap max or internal budgets.
General managers, many of whom have gathered together to watch the IIHF World Junior Championships, are trying to have conversations, but it’s definitely slow going.
About the most optimistic assessment of the amount of trade talk came from one team executive on Wednesday when he said, “not a ton.”
He put it this way: If you somehow find a team that has the flexibility financially to make a move and they like one of your players, you’ve still got to have a fit coming back -- and hurdles one and two are hard to cross right now.
But we hear versions of this every season, and then every season these guys find a way as the trade deadline gets closer.
So in anticipation of talks heating up, here’s a preview to help get ready for one of the most entertaining parts of the NHL season: Trade Season. Starting with the Eastern Conference, here’s an early team-by-team look at needs and strategies:
Note: Teams are listed in order of place in the standings as of Jan. 5. Cap and draft pick info via capfriendly.com.
Deadline cap space (including long-term injured reserve relief): $12.5 million
2017 draft picks: They currently have all seven of their own picks but have the option to send a second-rounder to Vancouver for John Tortorella. The expectation is that a top finish means they’ll do that this year instead of next.
Game plan: Everything is going so well right now for Columbus that general manager Jarmo Kekalainen is not looking to do anything crazy. “Last year, I was the most popular guy in the league; this year, I’m not getting as many phone calls,” he joked recently.
The Blue Jackets still want to take a long-term approach to team building but could use a depth player with Stanley Cup experience. The perfect example of this kind of player is the guy coaching their AHL team, John Madden. This is a young roster exceeding expectations, and another veteran would help stabilize things when they eventually stop winning every game. The challenge is that anybody acquired would have to be better than the young players pushing for ice time -- and that isn’t easy.
One situation to watch is in goal, where the Blue Jackets have a lot of organizational depth. Goalie Anton Forsberg is 11-6-1 with a .927 save percentage for Cleveland. He could be a target for teams looking for a young goalie to add to their system, since Sergei Bobrovsky is locked in as a starter for the Blue Jackets.
Deadline cap space (including LTIR relief): $1.47 million
2017 draft picks: Eight picks (courtesy of two fifth-rounders, one from the Mike Condon trade)
Game plan: The Penguins are in the middle of their bye week right now, which has allowed extra time for goalie Matt Murray to heal, but his injury has again supported the theory that Marc-Andre Fleury is at his best when he’s playing regularly. When he started six games in November, he had a .889 save percentage. In nine games played in December, it was up to .924.
GM Jim Rutherford’s ability to deal Fleury will hinge on Murray’s health, with Murray expected to be re-evaluated after the bye week after suffering a lower-body injury in December.
The turn of the new year was the time when the Penguins were expected to get serious about moving Fleury, but the injury to Murray slows the urgency. Rutherford feels no pressure to do anything at the deadline this year, believing his team is as good as any as currently constructed. However, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Penguins add a veteran forward if the opportunity arises.
Deadline cap space (including LTIR relief): $7.5 million
2017 draft picks: The Rangers have six draft picks, including their first-round pick.
Game plan: That the Rangers have so many good young players in the lineup without the benefit of first-round picks in recent seasons is remarkable, but you have to think GM Jeff Gorton, a draft-and-develop guy, wants to keep the one he finally has after so many years of the club trading them away.
Still, with strong forward depth and goaltending, the Rangers are back in Stanley Cup contention, and we’re still living in the Henrik Lundqvist window so there is urgency to win.
Kevin Klein's struggles this season mean the Rangers could use another defenseman to shore things up there. Kevin Shattenkirk has long been connected to the Rangers, but if they think they can get him this summer in free agency, there might be reluctance to give up assets now to make it happen.
Deadline cap space (including LTIR relief): $3.1 million
2017 draft picks: Seven picks, including two-second rounders courtesy of the Lars Eller deal
Game plan: GM Marc Bergevin has shown he has guts in making the blockbuster deal, and also smarts in how he has quietly made deft moves at the deadline, like the Jeff Petry and Brian Flynn deals. He’s definitely someone to watch with the Canadiens in contention, but they don’t have a ton of young assets to offer up, aside from that extra second-round pick from the Capitals.
The target should be a left-handed defenseman, and the ideal scenario is adding another center, too.
Deadline cap space (including LTIR relief): $4.5 million
2017 draft picks: Five picks. The Capitals are missing their second- and third-round picks.
Game plan: GM Brian MacLellan is fairly conservative when it comes to deal-making.
“He doesn’t make big trades,” said one GM of MacLellan.
That may be because he hasn’t had to. The Capitals have been a powerhouse since he’s taken over and are expected to push for a Stanley Cup this spring.
This deadline might be different, because he has veterans on expiring contracts like T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams, along with a handful of younger players who are due raises. So this might be the best roster for the Capitals to make a real push.
The Capitals' area of need is on defense, where a top-four defenseman would push Dmitry Orlov down the lineup a little come playoff time. I like Orlov’s offensive mentality, but come playoff time, coaches tend to want to minimize risk.
Deadline cap space (including LTIR relief): $4.7 million
2017 draft picks: Nine picks, including a pair in each of the third and fourth rounds.
Game plan: GM Ron Hextall is in an interesting spot. He has a team very much in the thick of a playoff race and plenty of draft picks to be aggressive at the deadline. But he’s also a GM focused on the big picture, and one not eager to move young pieces as part of a rebuilding process. Their time isn’t just yet.
They could use another winger, and that’s usually an easy request as the deadline comes, with the highest premiums paid instead for defensemen and centers. So it’s possible Hextall can bring in help without giving up too much in return.
The interesting situation to watch is in goal, where the Flyers have two pending unrestricted free agents in Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth. General managers looking to shore up their goaltending might give the Flyers a look.
Deadline cap space (including LTIR relief): $25 million
2017 draft picks: Five; the Senators are missing their second- and fifth-round picks.
Game plan: As highlighted by this story from Bruce Garrioch in the Ottawa Citizen, GM Pierre Dorion is on the prowl for a forward to help with a group that’s been hampered by injuries this season. Dorion has made it clear that he’s been aggressive in his pursuit to pick up a forward but is finding the trade market as restricting as his counterparts in the NHL. It’s likely going to take more separation in the standings to loosen things up to make a trade.
It doesn’t help that the Senators are short on draft picks and typically a budget team, so Dorion has to be careful what he gives up in a potential deal.
Deadline cap space (including LTIR relief): $15 million
2017 draft picks: Six picks, including a second-round pick acquired from the Oilers in exchange for GM Peter Chiarelli.
Game plan: GM Don Sweeney gave us a glimpse of his philosophy last year when he aggressively added at the trade deadline rather than trade pending UFA Loui Eriksson. The Bruins have stocked up on young players the past couple of years, and they have ammunition if they want to be aggressive at the deadline again for a team that certainly has some of the necessary pieces to win in the spring.
The emergence of Brandon Carlo has slowed the urgency to add a defenseman, but adding a top defenseman with offensive capabilities would help spark a team averaging just 2.33 goals per game and slot everyone down a notch on that defense. If that’s not realistic or possible, the Bruins could look for scoring on the wing.
Deadline cap space (including LTIR relief): $5.75 million
2017 draft picks: As many as eight, depending on conditions met.
Game plan: This is another fascinating team to watch at the deadline. Toronto has been a bit of a playoff-challenging surprise led by the big rookie season from Auston Matthews. They’ve been collecting young assets for the long term, and now is probably not the time to start shipping them out for short-term gain.
The Maple Leafs also have a forward in James van Riemsdyk who would be attractive to contending teams looking for help on the wing.
GM Lou Lamoriello’s approach could be dictated on how this team plays in the next month. They could definitely use a veteran defenseman, and if they’re in a playoff spot, you’d like to reward your young team for its efforts. At the very least, they don’t want to subtract pieces while the team is playing meaningful games.
Deadline cap space (including LTIR relief): $7.7 million
2017 draft picks: Seven, all their own.
Game plan: GM Steve Yzerman would love to add a right-handed offensive defenseman to plug into his top four and has the forward depth to pull it off, especially if they believe they’re going to lose a talented forward in the expansion draft. This isn’t a new need for the Lightning, and that they haven’t been able to pull it off before shows just how hard a deal this is to make.
Jonathan Drouin has been productive this season for the Lightning, with 23 points in 31 games, but you can’t help but wonder if he’s the kind of player who might have to be moved in order to bolster the defense. He’s a restricted free agent after this season -- as are Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat -- and at some point the cap space is going to disappear. It would have to be the right deal for a defenseman of the same pedigree as Drouin, but it might make sense to do that trade now if it’s out there.
Deadline cap space (including LTIR relief): $38.8 million
2017 draft picks: Six picks
Game plan: The Panthers have been a bit of a disappointment this season after high expectations coming off a division title, although the underlying numbers suggest it’s a team due for a surge. Internally, they’d like to see what they look like completely healthy before making any major decisions on the trade front, with injuries having hit the team hard this season.
They also intentionally left themselves plenty of cap flexibility to make moves if they present themselves, a smart strategy for a team where cap space is at an absolute premium.
Team president Dale Tallon has been aggressive at trade deadlines past, and considering the pressure to win coming from ownership, he may be again this year if the Panthers right the ship. The Panthers could use additional scoring up front if he wades into those waters.
Deadline cap space (including LTIR relief): $66.8 million
2017 draft picks: Nine picks, with a source confirming that the conditions were met for the third-rounder from New Jersey to kick in.
Game plan: No shortage of cap space in Carolina! They have picks and space and an interesting young team that continues to play on the fringes of playoff contention. The Hurricanes' biggest need is a young center to go with their strong group of young defensemen that Ron Francis has been collecting since taking over as GM.
The problem is that there just aren’t many teams with good, young centers available. From the outside, it looks like there’s an organizational match with the Colorado Avalanche if the Hurricanes have the appetite to go after one of the Avs' young forwards like Matt Duchene or Gabriel Landeskog. Carolina is one of the few teams with the young defensemen that might entice Colorado.
If I’m Francis, I’m also calling Yzerman to see whether Drouin is a possibility.
Deadline cap space (including LTIR relief): $39.6 million
2017 draft picks: Seven picks, including two second-rounders, one courtesy of the Lee Stempniak trade with Boston last season.
Game plan: The Devils are another young team that continues to battle just outside a playoff spot. When I checked in with GM Ray Shero, he hadn’t formulated a game plan yet.
“I haven’t at this point,” he said. “We’re a ways from the deadline.”
A rough December might have created too large a hole for the Devils to emerge from. Even if they do, they’re not at the point where they want to be aggressive in trading futures for help now.
If the Devils fall out of contention, they have a couple of expiring contracts in P.A. Parenteau and Kyle Quincey who might appeal to contenders looking to add depth.
Deadline cap space (including LTIR relief): $1.7 million
2017 draft picks: Eight picks, including Toronto’s third-round pick acquired for Mike Babcock.
Game plan: For as hard as GM Ken Holland has worked to keep winning in Detroit and extend the franchise’s incredible playoff streak, he’s also a realist. If the Red Wings continue to struggle, the expectation is that they would be sellers at the deadline, to help bring more young talent into the organization in a year they might also have a lottery pick. That wouldn’t be the worst thing for this franchise. They have rental options like Thomas Vanek, Steve Ott, Drew Miller and Brendan Smith who would have value, especially if there are limited sellers.
Before it gets to that point, the expectation from his colleagues is that Holland would make a trade right now if it helped address the teams needs on defense.
Deadline cap space (including LTIR relief): $8.4 million
2017 draft picks: Five. No picks in the fourth and sixth rounds, although GM Garth Snow always seems to find a way to get his picks back.
Game plan: Normally when a team struggles the way the Islanders have this season, we’d suggest they punt and move on. They have defensemen like Thomas Hickey and Calvin de Haan who could be interesting options if they decide to sell at the deadline. But this Islanders team isn’t normal. They have a John Tavares situation that is brewing, with their captain playing with a contract that expires prior to 2018-19. In theory, he could sign an extension with the Islanders on July 1.
If the Islanders start selling off parts and continue the slide backwards, it gives Tavares little reason to commit long-term, even for someone who has been as loyal as Tavares has been to the team that drafted him.
Keeping Tavares has to be the priority, and Snow has to give him a reason to stay. Instead of selling, the better strategy would be to aggressively pursue another cornerstone to add to Tavares long term.
Deadline cap space (including LTIR relief): $6.3 million
2017 draft picks: Eight. Remember when the Wild sent a second-round pick way off in the future to acquire Chris Stewart? That pick is for this year’s draft.
Game plan: The Sabres have done a nice job treading water while battling through injuries all season. It makes them a hard team to evaluate, because we haven’t gotten a good look at a healthy Sabres team for a long stretch. GM Tim Murray should give his team every opportunity to keep fighting, but if they’re still in last place at the deadline, the right move is to stay the course, pick up assets for expiring contracts, and then use those assets to fill out the roster in the summer.
Defenseman Dmitry Kulikov, an unrestricted free agent in July, would be a particularly attractive player at the deadline if the Sabres decide to sell.