CHICAGO -- Chicago Bears ownership is faced with difficult questions surrounding general manager Ryan Pace and coach Matt Nagy in the aftermath of Sunday’s 34-30 defeat to the Detroit Lions; a team that, ironically, jettisoned their head coach and GM little over one week ago.
Pace and Nagy are two years removed from an unexpected 12-win season that garnered both men offseason accolades -- Pace the NFL’s Executive of the Year and Nagy the NFL's Coach of the Year.
The issue at hand is the Bears appear to be working in reverse.
After Nagy -- with an extreme assist from Pace, who traded for former NFL Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack, led Chicago in his first year to its first NFC North crown in seven seasons, the Bears took a step backwards in 2019 and finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs.
The regression was unfortunate, but deemed correctable as the Bears raced out of the gates at 5-1 and appeared destined to make a return trip to the playoffs in the NFL’s 2020 COVID-19 expanded postseason field.
The bottom has since fallen out. The Bears, losers of six straight, sit with a record of 5-7 after quarterback Mitchell Trubisky’s fumble with under 2:00 left spoiled a respectable outing by the offense and essentially gift-wrapped an improbable come-from-behind victory to the Lions.
Bears fans -- numb from enduring the disastrous Marc Trestman and John Fox eras -- certainly would have understood Nagy’s team being two games below .500 in December of 2018, Year 1 of Nagy tenure in Chicago.
However in Year 3, the trajectory is supposed to be upward. And that is the quandary for ownership. Where is it all going with Pace and Nagy? Can they establish any sustained success, something that has eluded the Bears since the glory days of Mike Ditka?
Nagy is 25-20, including the postseason. Fox went 14-34 from 2015-17. Trestman lasted two years and won 13 games.
From a record perspective, Nagy is well ahead of what Fox or Trestman accomplished -- or failed to accomplish -- in Chicago.
Nagy is young, energetic, well liked by most players and coaches and a disciple of one of the game’s most successful head coaches, Andy Reid.
The Reid association, however, has turned out to be a blessing and curse.
Nagy landed the Bears job primarily because of the exposure he received, in Philadelphia and Kansas City, to Reid’s offense. Nagy is a head coach because of his offensive background.
The 42-year-old correctly left the defense to seasoned coordinators Vic Fangio and Chuck Pagano and hired respected special teams coordinator Chris Tabor, but the offense was Nagy’s baby.
But the offense has been bad. Really bad. The Bears, who played a good game on offense relatively speaking versus the Lions, entered Week 13 ranked 31st in total offense. Chicago has struggled in every area. Points scored. Running the ball. Quarterback efficiency. Third-down conversions. You name it. It reached the point where Nagy handed off playcalling duties to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor.
There have been plenty of successful NFL head coaches that don't call plays; it is just hard to think of many that were hired mainly because of their perceived playcalling abilities, only to relinquish that duty down the road.
Again, the question in front of ownership is whether Nagy can fix the offense next year, and whether he can coax better results out of veteran quarterback Nick Foles (if he returns) and/or groom and develop a young quarterback the Bears might draft.
For Pace, the debate is whether -- after six seasons -- he has done enough to overcome the mistake of trading up to draft Trubisky ahead of Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson.
There can be no argument here: The Bears blew it. Pace properly recognized the need for a franchise quarterback in Chicago, but picked the wrong guy. Still, following a three-year stint in the NFC North during Pace’s opening three seasons on the job, the Bears certainly have been much more competitive since Pace hired Nagy.
Pace -- under contract through 2021 -- is responsible, along with this staff, for quality roster additions such as Mack, safety Eddie Jackson, defensive tackle Akiem Hicks, linebackers Roquan Smith and Danny Trevathan, center/guard Cody Whitehair, wide receiver Allen Robinson, running back/returner Tarik Cohen, nose tackle Eddie Goldman, safety Adrian Amos (Packers) and rookie cornerback Jaylon Johnson.
The list of misses is equally robust: Trubisky, quarterback Mike Glennon, wide receiver Kevin White, linebacker Leonard Floyd, tight end Adam Shaheen, defensive tackle Jonathan Bullard, center Hroniss Grasu, linebacker Pernell McPhee, wide receiver Eddie Royal, safety Antrel Rolle, tight end Trey Burton, tight end Dion Sims and recently acquired pass-rusher Robert Quinn, who signed for $30 million guaranteed but has one sack in 11 games.
It is an unenviable position for the McCaskey family. Pace and Nagy both have time left on their contracts, so firing the two men -- plus the rest of the staff and assistant coaches -- would be costly in a year when NFL revenues are at an all-time low because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Bears also just went through a painful rebuild in the Fox years when they flipped the league's oldest roster to the youngest. Do the Bears want to suffer through that again?
If the Bears do fire Pace, who hires the replacement general manager? The Bears used longtime general manager turned consultant Ernie Accorsi to help them land Pace. The last time the Bears used in-house employees to hire the GM, the pick was Phil Emery, who lasted three seasons and is famously remembered for hiring Trestman and extending Jay Cutler’s contract.
Many have opined the Bears need to hire a president of football operations capable of hiring and firing general managers. That’s the sensible thing to do, in theory. However, that kind of move has proven less the Bears' style or modus operandi and more wishful thinking on the part of fans and others in around the league.
Things are not always cut and dry. It is easy to scream “fire everybody” from the mountaintop, but the point of change is to make situations better. Would the the Bears be better without Pace and Nagy? Can they find better candidates?
The Bears are in trouble, no doubt. Nagy's team is on the verge of missing the playoffs despite the 5-1 start to the season. For far too long, the Bears have been running place. Franchises do not miss the postseason eight of nine years in a row by accident. However, the Bears are -- believe it or not -- in their most competitive stretch since the Lovie Smith era.
Anyone can tear down. The best organizations have the wherewithal to build it back up. But the Bears have never proven they possess that trait. Proceed with caution.