Here’s a look at the Super Bowl prospects of the Buffalo Bills, who finished the season 7-9:
Super Bowl barometer: The Buffalo Bills have lots of work to do.
Assessing the foundation: The Bills have a choice to make this offseason: try to build on what is a shaky foundation, or tear the whole house down and start fresh. General manager Doug Whaley has given mixed signals about what he intends to do, insisting the day after the season ended with a disappointing 7-9 record that his team was "close" to making a playoff appearance. However, in a team-produced video after the Bills hired coach Sean McDermott, Whaley said, "We're not looking to just make the playoffs. We were looking for a coach that agreed with us that we want to build a team from the foundation up, a team that can consistently compete for championships. ... It's not going to be a quick fix. [McDermott] knows that, we know that. Anything that is going to be sustainable for a long time, it's hard to do. ... I can't give you a time frame, Year 1 or Year 2."
Whaley's comments seem to suggest that the Bills could take a step back before they take a step forward. The ouster of coach Rex Ryan was the first domino to fall, but releasing quarterback Tyrod Taylor would further rip apart the Bills' base built over the past few years. Drafting a young quarterback and attempting to build around him could be the right move, but it will shift the Bills' focus to long-term rather than immediate success. If that is the approach Whaley takes, it is a repudiation of the job he has done building the team over the past four years. Owners Terry and Kim Pegula seem to have extensive patience with Whaley, but there is reason to doubt whether he is the best choice to lead a rebuild of what he did not adequately construct in the first place.
Judging the quarterback: In August, the Bills faced a decision on Taylor: They could either let him play out of the final season of his contract and assign him the franchise tag before he hit free agency, or they could sign him to an extension that gave the team long-term protection if he became a star. The Bills chose the extension, but Taylor has not become a star. Playing without Sammy Watkins for eight games, Taylor's passing statistics were down almost across the board and his performance raised questions about whether he was capable of raising his level of play in future seasons. Taylor contributed a franchise-record 580 rushing yards for a quarterback, but he was sacked more than any other NFL QB (42 times) and was often inaccurate, indecisive and ineffective in situations when the Bills needed him to win a game.
Had the Bills not extended Taylor, they would have faced a February decision on whether to assign Taylor the franchise tag (expected to be around $21 million for quarterbacks) or attempt to re-sign him to a market-value deal. But because the Bills extended Taylor early, they now must decide by March 11 whether to guarantee $30.75 million of his contract. The decision whether to cut Taylor is pivotal to the franchise's direction in the coming years and creates perhaps the most intriguing quarterback dilemma in the league this spring.
Realistic ways the Bills can improve their chances to contend for a Super Bowl:
1. Keep taking swings at finding a quarterback. The Bills decided to double down on 2013 first-round pick EJ Manuel when they traded up for Watkins in the 2014 draft, and they did not select another quarterback until Cardale Jones in the fourth round in 2016. The Bills cannot develop a franchise quarterback unless they give themselves a chance in the draft. As Derek Carr, Dak Prescott and potentially Jimmy Garoppolo have proved in recent years, there are good quarterbacks available after the first round.
2. Fix the culture around the team. This was a talking point for McDermott in his introductory news conference, and with good reason. On and off the field, the Bills lacked focus under Ryan and, in some cases, under previous coaches during a playoff drought that stretches back to 1999. Whether it is the Bills not having 11 defenders on the field for a crucial play in a game or players being late to meetings, the day-to-day lapses added up to bigger problems. McDermott must translate his reputation for being disciplined and detail-oriented to his players and entire football staff.
3. Get everyone on the same page with the vision for how the team will win. Constant coaching changes have not helped, but the Bills have not stuck to a consistent plan on how their roster will be shaped and where to direct their financial and draft resources. Consider the Bills' decision to trade two first-round picks for Watkins, a dynamic receiver, in the 2014 draft. That move might work for the Falcons and a quarterback such as Matt Ryan, but Buffalo has not found the quarterback to pair with Watkins and create a top-tier passing attack. Instead, the Bills have been one of the NFL's most run-heavy teams of the past two seasons and Watkins' value is diminished.