The Buffalo Bills' final act in the 2015 free-agent signing period could come soon.
Will it be signing safety Dawan Landry, who visited the team Tuesday? Or could linebacker Brandon Spikes agree to return on a cheap deal? Could the Bills manage to squeeze both moves under their salary cap?
Here are some important considerations as we await answers to those questions:
Compensatory picks come into play. The Bills are currently in a spot to receive a 2016 compensatory draft selection, as they have lost more unrestricted free agents (4) than they have gained (3). The latest projection from OverTheCap.com, one of the credible sources for compensatory pick analysis, has the Bills netting a 2016 sixth-round choice for C.J. Spiller. If the Bills signed Landry before May 12 -- which has replaced June 1 as the NFL's cut-off date for free agency -- then they would have an even balance sheet of free agents, almost certainly taking them out of the running for compensatory draft picks. The wisest move for the Bills to keep their 2016 compensatory choice would be either to wait until after May 12 to sign Landry, or hold off until one of their remaining unrestricted free agents (Spikes, Larry Dean or Stevenson Sylvester) signs elsewhere, ensuring they maintain a net loss of free agents.
Could Bills wait until May 12 for Landry? Unless there is stiff competition for Landry's services -- which doesn't seem likely considering he's been on the market for a month -- the Bills could get away with waiting until after May 12 to sign him. Landry played the past two seasons in Rex Ryan's defense and would be ahead of his teammates in learning the playbook even if he arrives in mid-May. However, the Bills will have to consider if there is another team waiting to pounce on Landry after the draft. Even though this is considered a weak draft for safeties, there might be a team wanting to consider its options in the draft at safety before turning to a veteran like Landry.
What can Bills afford to pay Landry? Not much. The Bills currently have $7.3 million in cap room, with roughly $2 million of that space devoted to draft picks and at least another $2-3 million budgeted for in-season signings and potential carryover into 2016. It would be surprising if the Bills offered Landry a deal worth more than $1.5 million this season. They also need to be careful about spreading money into future years, as they did with their Percy Harvin deal. The Bills have $130 million in 2016 cap commitments (second-most in the NFL) and $103 million in 2017 cap commitments (also second-most in the NFL) -- and that's before potential extensions for Marcell Dareus, Stephon Gilmore, Nigel Bradham and Cordy Glenn.
Weighing Landry versus Spikes. If the Bills had to choose between adding either Landry or Spikes -- assuming Spikes would be open to returning to Buffalo on a small-money deal -- then Landry would be my choice. The Bills have a greater need at safety than linebacker and in Ryan's defense, depth at safety is more important than depth at linebacker. Landry could step in Day 1 and be a full-time starter in the back end, while Spikes would be limited to an early-down, run-stuffing role. While Duke Williams made strides last season from his underwhelming rookie campaign, he had his moments -- especially in a Week 6 loss to the New England Patriots. If the Bills are relying on a ball-control offense and strong defense, they can't afford a weak link in their defense.