Offensive tackle Rick Wagner is expected to be the first of the Baltimore Ravens' free agents to land big money elsewhere and sign with the Detroit Lions, which should sound eerily familiar.
It was exactly at this time last year -- one day before the official start of free agency -- that the Ravens learned that Kelechi Osemele was joining the Oakland Raiders and becoming the NFL's highest-paid guard.
Other teams have historically pursed Ravens' free agents. But other teams must really like Baltimore's offensive linemen.
Wagner is expected to sign a deal that averages over $9 million per season, according to the NFL Network. That's over $2 million per season more than every right tackle not named Lane Johnson.
The expectation was that Wagner would become the league's second highest-paid right tackle. But this premium price for Wagner shows there were a lot of desperate teams looking to upgrade at that spot, which drove his market value way beyond his actual value.
It's understandable that the Raiders invested $11.7 million per season in Osemele. He was already on the verge of being a Pro Bowl player and developed into one of the top guards in the NFL in 2016.
Wagner is nowhere close to being at the same level as Osemele. He was the ninth-best right tackle last season, according to Pro Football Focus. Wagner had an excellent season in 2014, struggled in 2015 coming off foot surgery and bounced back for a decent season last year. What you're going to get from Wagner is solid pass protection and adequate run blocking. You're not getting an All-Pro offensive tackle.
Criticism would be warranted if the Ravens refused to pay Wagner around $7 million per season. In this case, the criticism would be warranted if Baltimore decided to pay him $9 million per year.
There is a frustration that the Ravens couldn't hold on to a prospect who went from a fifth-round pick to a three-year starter. There is some concern that Baltimore doesn't have anyone on the roster who can immediately be pulled into Wagner's starting spot (Alex Lewis could play right tackle but Baltimore likes him more at left guard).
The Ravens' best option to replace Wagner is Riley Reiff, the Lions' starting right tackle last season. But he could be looking to go somehwere to play left tackle.
Other potential candidates include D.J. Fluker or Sebastian Vollmer. Baltimore could potentially draft a right tackle. Lewis started immediately last season after being a fourth-round pick.
The contingency plans aren't ideal. But the Ravens would find themselves in a worse position if they overpaid Wagner and didn't have enough cap space to address more pressing issues at cornerback and wide receiver.