<
>

Bounce-backs to believe in: Hot starts that will continue

A resurgent Jason Spezza has had much to celebrate this season. Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

When an NHL player has a season below their norm, their road to redemption becomes a storyline early in the following season. Will they bounce back? What went wrong the year before? How will their resurgence or continued struggles impact the team?

There are a number of players this season who are showing signs of having bounce-back campaigns, and others who were hoping to bounce back but haven't yet.

Will the current trends continue or is there a chance the comeback stories will turn sour? Let's have a look.


Jason Spezza, C, Dallas Stars

Key stat from 2017-18: 4.1 percent even-strength shooting percentage

2018-19 comparison: 14.3 percent even-strength shooting percentage

Following a brutal 26-point season, it appeared Spezza's days as an impact player might have been over, but he has shown signs of life over the Stars' first 18 games, scoring 11 points while bouncing around to different spots in the Dallas lineup. He has played 15:04 per game, which is more than two minutes per game more than last year. One concerning sign going forward is Spezza's shot rate, which is at a career-low 1.72 per game. If the 35-year-old doesn't find a way to get more pucks on net, his quick start could fade as the season goes on.

Max Domi, C, Montreal Canadiens

Key stat from 2017-18: Four even-strength goals on 103 shots

2018-19 comparison: Seven even-strength goals on 27 shots

A change of scenery has done Domi plenty of good. The 23-year-old has already cleared goal totals from 2016-17 and 2017-18 and produced more even-strength goals in 18 games than in 82 games last season. While it's clear that Domi's surroundings have helped him find the offensive potential he flashed as a rookie in 2015-16, he is also scoring on 26.3 percent of shots, which is three times his career mark, so we can expect his 1.22 points per game pace to slow down soon.

Jeff Skinner, LW, Buffalo Sabres

Key stat from 2017-18: Outscored 42-60 while on ice at even strength

2018-19 comparison: Outscoring opponents 19-7 while on ice at even strength

After seeing a dip in scoring from 63 points in 2016-17 to 49 last season, the long-time Carolina Hurricane found a cozy new home in Buffalo, and has played a significant role in the Sabres' strong start. Skinner has a league-leading 11 even-strength goals, many of which have been set up by his gifted linemate Jack Eichel. Certainly, a 21.6 shooting percentage will be hard to sustain considering Skinner scored on only 8.7 percent of his shots last season, but with an improved supporting cast, we may see him notch 40 goals this season.

Travis Zajac, C, New Jersey Devils

Key stat from 2017-18: 47.1 Corsi for percentage

2018-19 comparison: 51.4 Corsi for percentage, his highest since 2013-14

In his 12th season as a Devil, Zajac is holding down the "shutdown center" role. Only 18 percent of his faceoffs have been taken in the offensive zone, yet New Jersey has come out on the plus side of the shot counter with Zajac on the ice. That's an improvement from last season in which he was given a similar role. New Jersey also has a 12-6 goals advantage with their veteran forward on the ice, a big jump from 2017-18's 41.9 goals for percentage.

Zach Parise, LW, Minnesota Wild

Key stat from 2017-18: 17:05 ice time per game, lowest since rookie season

2018-19 comparison: 18:34 ice time per game

Zajac's former teammate was slowed by back surgery at the beginning of the 2017-18 season and was limited to just 42 games. When he did play, it was with lesser workload than the veteran has normally had during his career. However, during the final 21 games, the two-way winger scored 12 goals and appeared to be back to his old self. Parise has carried over his late-season performance and currently his highest point-per-game average since 2009-10. If his health holds up, the star winger will have a chance to prove he still has a lot of hockey left.

San Jose Sharks, C, Joe Thornton

Key stat from 2017-18: 42.6 goals for percentage, second time in his career below 50 percent

2018-19 comparison: 56.3 goals for percentage

After scoring just 23 points in 47 games -- a mark well below the usual standard for Jumbo Joe -- it was questionable whether Thornton would return for another season at age 39. While he's scored only five points in 10 games, there are signs that he can be more effective compared to the ice time he's asked to play. Thornton's Corsi for percentage is terrific, at 63.4 percent, and his individual shot rate has nearly doubled from last season at even strength. With skill abound on the San Jose roster, the future Hall of Famer still has a lot to offer as a role player.

Derrick Pouliot, D, Vancouver Canucks

Key stat from 2017-18: On ice for 51 goals against in just 1,097 minutes

2018-19 comparison: On ice for 20 goals for the Canucks, third in the NHL among defensemen

The eighth overall pick from 2012 (by the Penguins) has not posted impressive scoring totals for the resurgent Canucks, but some of the underlying numbers could point to him finally catching on as a top-four defenseman on a competing team. Pouliot is averaging 19:55 per game, more than two minutes more than last season, and has played as much as 26:01 in a single game. The Canucks' Corsi for percentage jumps 6.9 percentage points and they produce 1.7 more goals per 60 minutes at even strength with him on the ice. Of course, Pouliot will have to prove he can sustain this level of play for a full season.

Kevin Shattenkirk, D, New York Rangers

Key stat from 2017-18: On ice for 25 goals for, 36 against in 46 games

2018-19 comparison: On ice for 10 goals for, 6 against in 17 games

Rangers fans who had their hopes on a 50-plus point season for Shattenkirk might end up being disappointed, but his underlying statistics are much better than his first campaign as a Blueshirt. When Shattenkirk has been on the ice this season, the Rangers' Corsi for percentage is 8.8 percentage points higher and goals for percentage 15.9 percentage points higher. Last season, the Rangers' goals for percentage dropped with Shattenkirk on the ice. Interestingly, new head coach David Quinn has reduced the veteran's even-strength ice time from 16:06 to 14:37 per game, which may help him stay fresh throughout the season. Now the Rangers will need more from Shattenkirk on the power play, where he has just two points so far.

Thomas Greiss, G, New York Islanders

Key stat from 2017-18: 36 percent quality start percentage

2018-19 comparison: 75 percent quality start percentage

It's been a wild ride recently for the journeyman netminder. In 2015-16, he put together a remarkable stretch of .925 save percentage in 41 regular-season games and .925 save percentage in 11 postseason games. In the next two seasons as an Islander, he put together just a .905 save percentage in 74 starts. Under Barry Trotz and goalie guru Mitch Korn, the 32-year-old is back on track in his first eight starts. It's extremely unlikely Greiss will keep up a .938 save percentage, but he could enjoy some more defensive help with the Islanders' new regime in place.

Jaroslav Halak, G, Boston Bruins

Key stat from 2017-18: .918 even-strength save percentage

2018-19 comparison: .943 even-strength save percentage

Greiss's co-starter on the Island from recent seasons has moved on to greener pastures, playing in the goalie-friendly Bruins' crease; so far, he is reaping the benefits. Halak has looked like the 2009-10 playoff version through 11 starts. If the well-traveled goalie continues to shut down opponents, he could end up owning a share of the net for the rest of the season, even with Tuukka Rask returning to action.


Players who have not bounced back

Erik Karlsson, D, San Jose Sharks

Key stat from 2017-18: 0.87 points per game, lowest since 2010-11

2018-19 comparison: Eight points in 19 games

The Karlsson era in San Jose hasn't quite had the fireworks that everyone expected when he was dealt to the Sharks, but they have been a dominant team with the former Norris Trophy winner on the ice, taking 59.9 percent of total shots. Given time, Karlsson's point totals are likely to rise.

Milan Lucic, LW, Edmonton Oilers

Key stat from 2017-18: 10 goals in 82 games

2018-19 comparison: One goal in 18 games

The Lucic situation in Edmonton has become untenable. Originally signed to play with Connor McDavid, he is now skating under 15 minutes per game while taking up $6 million in cap space.

Max Pacioretty, LW, Vegas Golden Knights

Key stat from 2017-18: Six even-strength goals

2018-19 comparison: One even-strength goal

On paper, Pacioretty made perfect sense in Vegas as a scoring winger who could replace the production of James Neal and add some two-way talent to the club. That has not been the case so far. But there is still hope. The veteran winger has a 4.9 percent shooting percentage; his career mark is 10.9. He's likely to see some better puck luck soon.

Dion Phaneuf, D, Los Angeles Kings

Key stat from 2017-18: Minus-4.3 percent Relative Corsi

2018-19 comparison: Minus-5.3 percent Relative Corsi

The Kings' long-shot trade for Phaneuf has blown up in their faces, and he's gotten even worse from an underwhelming stint last season. He should be at the top of the list of players from whom to move on as they look to retool the roster for the future.

Jake Allen, G, St. Louis Blues

Key stat from 2017-18: .906 save percentage

2018-19 comparison: .883 save percentage

Once considered the next franchise goalie in St. Louis, Allen's save percentage has dropped each season since 2015-16. If he doesn't turn things around soon, it may be Chad Johnson's net the rest of the way.