The Washington Capitals and Vegas Golden Knights are far from the teams anyone would have guessed would represent the Eastern and Western Conferences in the Stanley Cup Final when the regular season began. But you would be hard-pressed to find a more entertaining combination of teams. Washington has reversed its trend of postseason meltdowns, while Vegas is playing for history.
How could each team end up raising the Stanley Cup? Let's have a look.
Washington Capitals
Three key stats:
52.2 percent shots for percentage
16 power-play goals in 19 playoff games
Braden Holtby .930 career playoff save percentage
Why the Capitals could win:
The Washington Capitals team that we have seen in the playoffs is not the same Capitals team we watched for 82 regular-season games. Despite winning the Metropolitan Division, the Caps had some significant flaws between October and April. They had the fifth-worst shots for percentage of any team in the league, ranking just behind the Arizona Coyotes. Goalie Braden Holtby had his worst regular season, posting a .909 save percentage. He struggled so much that coach Barry Trotz went with backup Philipp Grubauer in the first game of the playoffs. In the regular season, defenseman Dmitry Orlov was on the ice for 38 more high-danger chances against his team than for the Capitals.
All of those things have flipped in the postseason. Washington has outshot opponents 472-432 during its run to the Cup Final. Holtby has a .924 save percentage, including two Game 7 shutouts. Orlov has been on the ice for 74 high-danger chances for and just 58 against while posting a tremendous 54.8 percent shots for percentage. He and Matt Niskanen have not only been as dominant as any pair in the playoffs, they have done so while being deployed heavily in defensive-zone situations (143 D-zone faceoffs for Orlov to 104 O-zone).
The one area where the Capitals were similar from the regular season to playoffs was on the man advantage. During the regular season, they ranked seventh in the NHL in power-play production, scoring on 22.5 percent of opportunities. This postseason, that number has gone up to 28.8 percent.
Much of that success on the power play is driven by Washington's top-heavy lineup of scorers. Four players have at least nine 5-on-4 points this postseason. Evgeny Kuznetsov leads the team in total points with 24, Alex Ovechkin has 22 and Nicklas Backstrom has 16 in 15 playoff games. The Capitals do not have a down-the-lineup player who has risen to the occasion. Their stars have been stars for three straight rounds.
So while Ovechkin is -- and deserves to be -- a main storyline because of his exceptional performance, the biggest difference between failed Ovechkin teams and this successful group is that the superstar winger has been part of a complete team effort. Ovechkin has almost always done his job in the playoffs. He's up to 112 points in 116 total postseason games. This is the sixth season he has averaged at least a point per game in the playoffs.
Washington can win because many of the players the Capitals have relied upon have track records of success -- even if it isn't in the form of Cup appearances.
Holtby has generally been one of the league's elite goalies, producing the second-highest percentage of quality starts in the NHL over the past four years, behind only Corey Crawford. Kuznetsov has quietly emerged as a top-notch scorer, producing 83 points in 79 games this season. Orlov has long been underrated as a puck mover. Ovechkin has been the NHL's best goal scorer over the past decade.
The only question is whether Washington's key players can put it together for one more series. If not, the Caps are too short on quality depth producers to survive a slump.
Vegas Golden Knights
Three key stats:
Marc-Andre Fleury has a .956 even-strength save percentage
William Karlsson has a 14-4 playoff scoring advantage at even strength
Vegas has 27.8 scoring chances per 60 minutes, No. 1 in the playoffs among teams with at least 10 games
Why the Golden Knights could win:
The Golden Knights are different from the Capitals in this way: In the playoffs, the Golden Knights have continued to play at the high level they established during the regular season, but because they are an expansion team, we simply couldn't believe they would keep it up.
Overall, they finished fifth in scoring, eighth in goals allowed and tied for 10th in power-play percentage and penalty killing. The goals allowed category likely would have been even better had Fleury played the entire regular season. Injuries limited him to just 46 games, but he finished with a .932 even-strength save percentage, the highest of his career.
Between the 2009-10 and 2012-13 seasons, Marc-Andre Fleury struggled in the playoffs with the Pittsburgh Penguins, failing to top a .900 save percentage in four straight postseasons. But in recent years, he has been more reliable, including nine wins in 15 starts with a .924 save percentage last year. Since 2013-14, Fleury has appeared in 50 playoff games and has a .929 playoff save percentage. It would be an all-time great performance if Fleury kept up his .947 mark, but it isn't stunning that he has performed exceptionally well considering his regular season and recent postseason.
Offensively, Vegas' top point producer during the regular season, William Karlsson, set career highs way above the norm with his new top-six and power-play roles, so it was reasonable to question whether he could continue to ride his high shooting percentages. The former Shark and Blue Jacket scored 43 goals (his previous career high was nine) and had the NHL's highest regular-season shooting percentage at 23.4 percent. That number has dipped to 13.6 percent in the playoffs, but he has still been highly effective with 13 points in 15 games.
Other players who were gifted to Vegas by the other 30 teams were more established. Playoff point leader Jonathan Marchessault tallied 30 goals in 2016-17. His follow-up act has been 27 regular-season goals and eight more in 15 playoff games.
The Golden Knights' top scorers have been supported by a deep lineup. They have 11 players who have scored at least five points in their 15 playoff games. During the regular season, Vegas had nine players post more than 30 points.
If there is one unexpected development in the playoffs, it's that a potential weakness now looks like a strength. The Golden Knights do not have a Drew Doughty-level defenseman, but their blueliners are proving to be better than expected. Dynamic young defender Shea Theodore has been on the ice for 142 scoring chances for his team and only 108 against during the playoffs. Former Capital Nate Schmidt and Brayden McNabb take on the tougher minutes, as both have been on the ice for nearly 40 more D-zone faceoffs than O-zone.
Forget the expansion angle, and you see a team in Vegas with elite goaltending, two of the league's top scorers and two top pairs who can be scary offensively and handle tough defensive minutes. The Knights are backed by a terrific coach in Gerard Gallant. While teams like Nashville and Winnipeg may have been a little better during the regular season in some categories, it's hard to find any "fluke" about the Golden Knights' Stanley Cup appearance.
The pick: Washington in seven
The Capitals have a slight edge in elite talent. If Fleury stumbles at all, Washington will take the series, but it appears to be a very close matchup on paper.