One key matchup could make the difference in a tightly matched Stanley Cup Final between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Washington Capitals. Each team seeks to win the first Stanley Cup in franchise history, though the Capitals had a 42-season head start.
For Vegas, top defensive players like Brayden McNabb will have to find a way to shut down the postseason's top scorers, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Alex Ovechkin. The Capitals' shutdown defenseman Matt Niskanen and top two-way forwards Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie will try to contend with Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, James Neal and other key members of the Golden Knights.
Who will prevail? Let's shed some light on this question by looking at the underlying numbers behind five pivotal matchups.
Alex Ovechkin vs. Reilly Smith
The most important matchup will involve Ovechkin, whose seventh career Rocket Richard Trophy marks him as the greatest goal scorer in the game today and one of the best of all time. So far this postseason, Ovechkin's 12 goals rank second to Winnipeg's Mark Scheifele (14) and his 22 points rank second to his linemate Kuznetsov (24).
According to the following player usage chart, Smith is the Vegas forward most likely to be assigned the difficult task of shutting down Ovechkin. Based on a weighted average of the past three seasons, Smith's position at the top of the chart reflects the fact that he takes on top opponents like Ovechkin; his position slightly to the left indicates his balanced usage with a tendency to the defensive zone; and his blue circle demonstrates how well his teams have performed with him in that role, from a shot-based perspective.
While this chart is based on even-strength play, the same assignments will hold when Washington has the man advantage. The Capitals rely almost exclusively on their top unit, which features Ovechkin and John Carlson on the point and Kuznetsov, Backstrom and Oshie up front. All five players have at least nine power-play points in the postseason.
Smith is a seasoned penalty killer whose total of 436:22 minutes killing penalties over the past three seasons ranks 33rd among forwards. He ranks eighth with 31:22 in the playoffs, during which time opponents have scored just three goals.
While aiming to shut down Ovechkin, Smith also poses an offensive threat of his own. He scored 60 points in 67 games in the regular season, and his 14 assists in the postseason are tied with Boston Bruins forward David Pastrnak for second behind Winnipeg's Blake Wheeler (18).
Advantage: Even
William Karlsson vs. Nicklas Backstrom
By getting more points than Washington in the regular season, the Golden Knights have earned home-ice advantage for Games 1 and 2 (and also for Games 5 and 7, if they are necessary). They will use that critical advantage to match their top line of Smith, Karlsson and Marchessault to shut down Washington's top scoring line of Ovechkin, Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson, while avoiding the Capitals' top defensive line in order to maximize their own scoring.
During the regular season, Karlsson led the Golden Knights with 43 goals and 78 points in 82 games; he is tied for second in the playoffs with six goals and is third with 13 points.
Based on the following player usage chart, it's obvious which matchup the Capitals would prefer instead. In Games 3 and 4 -- and, if necessary, 6 -- expect Washington to deploy Backstrom's line against Karlsson and company.
Like Smith, Backstrom is at the top of the chart because he's accustomed to taking on top opponents and is to the left of players like Ovechkin because he is used in both the offensive and defensive zone. His great shot-based metrics give his symbol a notably blue color, especially in relation to Kuznetsov's pale yellow in a less difficult assignment. He also poses a scoring threat of his own, with a career-high 16 points in 15 games in the postseason, after joining Sidney Crosby and Tyler Seguin as the only players to score at least 70 points in each of the past five regular seasons.
Advantage: Washington
Evgeny Kuznetsov vs. Brayden McNabb
Whether it's someone like Duncan Keith of the Chicago Blackhawks, Drew Doughty of the Los Angeles Kings or Zdeno Chara of the Bruins, most Stanley Cup finalists have a Norris-caliber defenseman at their disposal to shut down top opposition scorers. Can the Golden Knights prevail with someone like McNabb instead?
Shutting down the Capitals is a tall order. Their top scorer is Kuznetsov, who has 11 goals and a league-leading 24 points in 19 postseason games. In the regular season, his 219 points in 243 games over the past three seasons ranks 17th.
Prior to this season, McNabb was never relied upon as the team's top shutdown defenseman, and his only stint in the top four facing players like Kuznetsov was alongside Doughty in 2015-16.
McNabb relies on a rugged playing style, but it comes at the risk of taking additional penalties. In the regular season, he ranked 12th with 225 hits, sixth with 176 blocks and was tied for 63rd with 23 penalties. In the playoffs, he ranks fourth with 64 hits, is tied for fourth with 38 blocked shots and is tied for third with eight penalties.
That means that every 8.0 hits has resulted in one penalty, which is down from 9.8 in the regular season. With a power-play percentage of 28.8 in the postseason, Kuznetsov and the Capitals could make the Golden Knights pay for any lack of discipline.
Advantage: Washington
Jonathan Marchessault vs. Matt Niskanen
Though he has received Norris consideration only once, finishing 11th in 2013-14, Niskanen is an established top-pair defenseman with many years of experience shutting down top opponents. In the case of the Golden Knights, that's their leading scorer, Marchessault, who ranks eighth overall with 18 points in 15 games.
In each series, Niskanen has faced off against the team's top opponents, and with generally good results. Against the Columbus Blue Jackets, his most frequent opposing forward at 5-on-5 was Artemi Panarin (83:25), during which time the Capitals outscored the Blue Jackets 4-1, according to the data at Natural Stat Trick. Niskanen stumbled a bit against Crosby of the Pittsburgh Penguins, who outscored the Capitals 5-3 in the 64:22 they faced each other, but Niskanen outscored the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-2 in the 56:27 minutes spent facing Nikita Kucherov. That Tampa Bay series ended with the Lightning going scoreless for 159:27 minutes.
If home ice is Vegas's key advantage, then Niskanen could be Washington's.
Advantage: Washington
James Neal vs. T.J. Oshie
When the top players cancel each other, then the series can be decided by key secondary players like Neal and Oshie.
Other than goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, Neal is Vegas' most experienced playoff performer. Though he wasn't in town for any of Pittsburgh's Stanley Cup victories, he has accumulated 95 games of playoff experience, during which he has scored 53 points. In these categories, his closest teammates are David Perron with 53 games and Smith with 29 points.
Neal's primary contribution has been getting the puck on net, where he ranks seventh in the league with 56 shots. He has also rediscovered the more physical game with which he began his career a decade ago. His 37 hits in the playoffs almost match his regular-season total of 44.
At home, Neal will usually be matched up against Oshie, who plays on the right wing of Backstrom's top two-way line. During the difficult contractual decisions facing the Capitals last summer, Oshie was retained because he's the kind of versatile, do-it-all player who's perfect for situations exactly like this. He can score, shut down top opponents, draw penalties, contribute on the top power-play unit, kill penalties and take faceoffs if required. He ranks seventh among forwards with 50 hits, tied for third with 17 shots, second with 16 takeaways and ninth with 47 shots.
Advantage: Even