As some teams prepare for the Stanley Cup playoffs, others are setting their sites on the NHL draft lottery on April 28 -- and the possibility of drafting Rasmus Dahlin. Where is he likely to go, and where would he be the best fit?
Dahlin is a 17-year-old Swedish defenseman who is ranked No. 1 by ESPN's Chris Peters, and also tops the list (among European skaters) for NHL Central Scouting, McKeen's Hockey, Future Considerations, ISS Hockey and HockeyProspect.com. Considered a complete defenseman, Dahlin represented Sweden at the 2018 Winter Olympics and in several other international tournaments.
This season, he scored 20 points in 41 games playing with Frolunda, which is the equivalent of 25 points in a full 82-game season in the NHL, based on the historical performance of players who came from the SHL.
That may not sound like many points, but there's a strong precedent for that estimate. For example, Victor Hedman scored 21 points in 43 games in the SHL in 2008-09 and was drafted second overall by the Tampa Bay Lightning, with whom he scored 20 points in 74 games the following season.
Hedman by no means was a first-year underachiever. The average rookie scoring performance for him and the seven other defensemen who were drafted in the top five and moved immediately to the NHL since 2005-06 is 23 points in 72 games. In fact, there were 10 other defensemen drafted in the top five in this time frame who didn't play in the NHL at all in the season after they were drafted.
Even if Dahlin has just a 50-50 chance of being a top-four defenseman who scores 25 points in 2018-19, that is still a hot commodity. Last summer, free agents such as Kris Russell, Brendan Smith, Dmitry Orlov, Michael Stone, Justin Schultz, Karl Alzner, Dmitry Kulikov and Trevor Daley signed long-term contracts with an average cap hit of over $4.3 million, and were slotted in at roughly No. 4 on each team's blue-line depth chart. During the season, Erik Gudbranson signed a three-year contract extension with the Canucks with an annual cap hit of $4 million.
In the salary cap era, getting someone with Dahlin's upside on a low-cost, entry-level contract is of tremendous value. Let's consider the impact he would have on each of the teams with the greatest chance of winning the draft lottery, according to the calculations at Hockey Viz.
Buffalo Sabres
Chances of winning the draft lottery: 18 percent
Dahlin's fit: Excellent
It's hard to decide who would be happiest about Dahlin's arrival in Buffalo: their coach, Hall-of-fame defenseman Phil Housley, or their overworked No. 1 defenseman, Rasmus Ristolainen.
Due to a combination of injuries and poor play, the Sabres have been forced to lean far too heavily on Ristolainen -- and it shows. Since his debut in 2013-14, the Sabres have been outshot 6,473-4,931 in 5-on-5 shot attempts with Ristolainen on the ice, for a Corsi differential of minus-1,542 that is 365 shots worse than the next-lowest player, Kris Russell, minus-1,177.
At the minimum, Dahlin would be an immediate depth upgrade over the various journeymen Housley has tried, such as Justin Falk, Taylor Fedun, Matt Tennyson and Zach Redmond. In the best-case scenario, Dahlin would slot in behind Ristolainen on the power play, and at even strength on the second pair with veteran Zach Bogosian, who is out with a hip injury, or with fellow top prospect Brendan Guhle.
While Buffalo has more problems than Dahlin can solve by himself, adding some offensive spark and taking pressure off of Ristolainen and Marco Scandella would be a giant stride in the right direction.
Ottawa Senators
Chances of winning the draft lottery: 14 percent
Dahlin's fit: Questionable
With captain and franchise defenseman Erik Karlsson rumored to be on his way out of town, there could be some giant skates in Ottawa for Dahlin to try to fill.
With Karlsson already out of the lineup for personal reasons, the final few games will be a chance to look at what Ottawa's options are without him, and it isn't pretty. Though Thomas Chabot has potential, there is nobody left with even a passing resemblance to an effective top-four defenseman. For example, their new No. 1 is Cody Ceci, who has a career high of 26 points, and whose career Corsi differential of minus-848 is the 12th lowest of any player since his debut in 2013-14.
Without more support, this may be too challenging a situation for Dahlin in his first season. Even if Ottawa drafts him, they still will need at least one more solid top-four option if they do trade Karlsson, and will need to get involved in the bidding war for this summer's leading free-agent defenseman, John Carlson. But without Carlson or Karlsson, Dahlin's talents may go to waste.
Montreal Canadiens
Chances of winning the draft lottery: 11 percent
Dahlin's fit: Potentially ideal
Montreal drafting Dahlin could be a win-win situation. The Canadiens have too much cap space invested in their top three defensemen Shea Weber, Jeff Petry and Karl Alzner (around $18 million), and need the cap relief afforded by entry-level contracts -- especially with Carey Price's $10.5 million contract kicking in next season.
In exchange, these veterans can handle the tough minutes and offer shelter and guidance to Dahlin, who would be one of three solid prospects who could be brought along gradually next season, if you include Victor Mete and Noah Juulsen. The Habs also have valuable role players such as David Schlemko and Jordie Benn to fill in any blue-line gaps while they all develop.
Arizona Coyotes
Chances of winning the draft lottery: 10 percent
Dahlin's fit: Non-optimal
Of the top draft lottery teams, the Coyotes have arguably the most well-stocked top four. If anything, Dahlin's arrival could help prompt the infamous Auston Matthews trade that I keep speculating about.
Arizona has come on strong lately in part because of its blue line. Jason Demers has developed into an effective top-pairing partner for Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who spent several seasons on the periphery of the Norris Trophy debate, and could get there again. Alex Goligoski is a proven two-way defender, Jakob Chychrun has demonstrated the potential of establishing himself in the top four next season, and a healthy Niklas Hjalmarsson would add a quality shut-down defenseman.
While it never hurts to add a player like Dahlin, he wouldn't have the same impact in Arizona that he would somewhere else.
Vancouver Canucks
Chances of winning the draft lottery: 9 percent
Dahlin's fit: Solid
Vancouver can definitely use Dahlin, but you don't have to trust me. Signing a big but otherwise mediocre depth player like Gudbranson to a rich, long-term contract demonstrates how desperately the team's own management feels that the Canucks need defensemen.
Dahlin could be the glue that helps bind Vancouver's various pieces together. Alexander Edler has been performing capably as the team's No. 1, Chris Tanev is among the league's most underrated shutdown defensemen when he's healthy, and role players such as Troy Stecher, Ben Hutton and Derrick Pouliot provide a lot of depth. What the Canucks need is a versatile two-way player for the middle of the lineup, and that's exactly what Dahlin can provide.
New York Islanders
Chances of winning the draft lottery: 8 percent
Dahlin's fit: Promising
The Islanders have been a quietly effective foundation for several young defensemen recently. Just this season, we have seen Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech develop into effective top-four defensemen and Sebastian Aho demonstrate the potential to be next. Given the possible departure of free agents Calvin de Haan and Thomas Hickey, there's plenty of room for Dahlin, too.
Winning the draft lottery couldn't come at a better time for the Islanders. For starters, there's the status of captain John Tavares, who is set to become a free agent on July 1, and Dahlin's arrival could serve as enticement for him to stay, or to help them quickly adjust to life without him.
Dahlin also would give the Islanders another valuable option on the top pair, where they have a combined $11.5 million invested in Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk for four more seasons after this. Given that the former has a league-worst minus-42, and the latter is 34 years old, splitting them up next season is worth exploring.
Detroit Red Wings
Chances of winning the draft lottery: 8 percent
Dahlin's fit: Potential lifesaver
Nicklas Lidstrom retired on May 31, 2012, which has given Detroit plenty of time to rebuild its blue line. Instead, it invested $20 million long term in a mediocre top four of Mike Green, Danny DeKeyser, Niklas Kronwall and Jonathan Ericsson -- to which they even added Trevor Daley for another $3.167 million last summer. More than any other factor, it was these risky blue-line investments that have kept them out of the playoffs for two seasons.
It's difficult to see how Detroit could quickly change course without adding a player like Dahlin. Given Detroit's strength up front, it may also be Dahlin's quickest path to playoff hockey.
Even with Dahlin, it will take a lot of work to fix Detroit's blue line. DeKeyser is a decent shutdown defenseman, and the Red Wings have found a good depth defenseman in Nick Jensen, but they'll need to replace Green (who will hit free agency this summer) and will have almost no cap space to maneuver once they re-sign a handful of restricted free-agent forwards. It won't be easy, but without Dahlin, it might not even be possible.
Other possibilities
There is a 22 percent chance that the first overall pick will land elsewhere. Most notably, there's a 6 percent chance Dahlin could be headed for Edmonton or Chicago, 4 percent for the New York Rangers, 3 percent for the Carolina Hurricanes and 2 percent for the Dallas Stars.
Of these, the least-effective destinations would be Carolina and Dallas, both of which already have an abundance of solid young defensemen both in their NHL lineup and in their pipeline. If they win the draft lottery, they might even pick someone else, or trade down.
As much as it might anger some fans, the most exciting possibility is if Edmonton drafts first overall for the fifth time in nine seasons, and Dahlin gets to play with Connor McDavid. There are certainly those who think the team is in some way cursed, but adding an effective top-four defenseman on an entry-level contract would go a long way to helping the Oilers manage their cap when McDavid's $12.5 million cap hit kicks in next season.