By the NHL All-Star break, one would think that any good or bad luck from the beginning of the season would have evened out. However, late-season runs to the postseason and second-half collapses tell us that not everything has been decided by the unofficial midpoint of the season.
So how can we figure out which teams might slide or make noise down the stretch? One way is to look at a team's PDO. PDO is determined by the combination of shooting percentage and save percentage at even strength. If PDO is extraordinarily high, there's a chance the team could slide back in the second half; if PDO is low, we could see a surge.
But, sometimes high or low PDO simply means a team is excellent -- or poor. Figuring out which direction a club will go takes further examination, including looking at whether they are controlling play and other factors.
Let's have a closer look at the top five highest and lowest PDO teams, and analyze whether their current level of play -- good or bad -- will continue.
Best PDO
Tampa Bay Lightning (34-12-3, 1st in Atlantic)
PDO rank: 1
Even-strength shooting percentage: 8.9 percent
Even-strength save percentage: .938
Even-strength Corsi for percentage: 51.9 percent
The Lightning have been the far and away best team in the NHL during the first half of the season, receiving dominant performances from superstar scorers Nikita Kucherov (63 points in 49 games) and Steven Stamkos (58 points in 49 games). Stamkos should continue to streak as he ranks 12th in on-ice scoring chances per 60 minutes, according to Natural Stat Trick. But Kucherov's torrid pace may slow to some extent. He ranks sixth in the league in individual shooting percentage.
Several depth players on the Lightning could see their percentages drop in the second half. Yanni Gourde (33 points) is 16th in the NHL in shooting percentage (20.2) and Brayden Point (44 points in 49 points) is at 16.4.
Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has a .938 even-strength save percentage, which is well above his .927 career mark. Even if he hits some bumps in the road, the 23-year-old goalie has a shot at the Vezina Trophy.
Looking ahead: The Lightning might see some more struggles in the second half than the first, but overall they are out-shooting and out-chancing opponents consistently, and their uber-talented roster is capable of remaining the best team in the NHL.
Washington Capitals (29-15-5, 1st in Metro)
PDO rank: 2
Even-strength shooting percentage: 8.9 percent
Even-strength save percentage: .930
Even-strength Corsi for percentage: 48.4 percent
The Capitals continue to be a contender in the Alex Ovechkin era, but there are some red flags this time around. According to Natural Stat Trick, Washington has been significantly out-shot and has given up 499 high-danger shots against, compared to only 382 high-danger shots for.
Historically speaking, we know it's plausible for Alex Ovechkin to continue his scoring streak, but he's currently sporting the third highest shooting percentage (14.4) of his career, and his highest since the shortened 2012-13 season. Winger Brett Connolly, who has 13 goals, has scored on an absurd 30.7 percent of his shots, which is extremely unlikely to continue.
And while starting goalie Braden Holtby's numbers are a shade below his career averages, backup Philipp Grubauer has a tremendous -- and likely unsustainable -- .938 even-strength save percentage.
Looking ahead: The Caps have a strong roster, but they will need to control play more often during the next three months to keep their spot at the top of the Metropolitan division.
Boston Bruins (29-10-8, 2nd in Atlantic)
PDO rank: 3
Even-strength shooting percentage: 8.6 percent
Even-strength save percentage: .931
Even-strength Corsi for percentage: 53.2 percent
Boston hasn't always been a high PDO team during their successful seasons. The last time its PDO ranked at the top of the league was 2010-11, when the team brought home a Stanley Cup. The B's weren't expected to be a Cup contender this season, but an influx of young, gifted players like defenseman Charlie McAvoy and forwards Danton Heinen and Jake DeBrusk has many believing they'll stay in the mix.
While some of the individuals have shooting percentages that are likely to drift back -- like Brad Marchand, who is currently shooting 20.2 percent -- Boston's key players are crushing opponents on the shot counter. Center Patrice Bergeron has the third highest Corsi for percentage in the NHL (58.4) and McAvoy leads all Bruins defensemen, at 54.7 percent.
Boston goalie Tuukka Rask has struggled at times during the past two seasons, but he appears to be back in his groove. His even-strength save percentage of .930 is on par with his career average, and the B's have given up the fewest high-danger shots in the NHL.
Looking ahead: Except for possible injury, there's nothing that indicates the Bruins will slide back. Even if their goaltending slips or they hit a cold streak, Boston's ability to keep opponents away from its net will keep them in contention.
Colorado Avalanche (27-18-3, 5th in Central)
PDO rank: 4
Even-strength shooting percentage: 8.9 percent
Even-strength save percentage: .927
Even-strength Corsi for percentage: 48.3 percent
The Avs have a chance to rise up from dead last in 2016-17 to the playoffs this season. They went into the All-Star break as winners of eight of their past 10 games and currently sit in a wild-card spot.
With a Corsi for percentage, scoring chance percentage and high-danger shot percentage all below 50 -- meaning that opponents are outperforming the Avs in all three -- it's a tough sell that Colorado will stay in the race, but they overcame a very poor stretch earlier this season to become a competitive team. Since they are built on the foundation of young players like the blazing hot Nathan MacKinnon (60 points in 48 games) and rising star Mikko Rantanen (47 points in 48 games), they could continue to score at a high rate even if there are more rough patches.
If the Avs' No. 2-ranked penalty kill hits the skids or if goalie Jonathan Bernier, whose even-strength save percentage is its highest since 2013-14, comes down from his recent hot streak, the Avs could be in trouble.
Looking ahead: Maybe Colorado isn't quite ready to be a true Cup contender, especially in a very difficult division, but it has the offensive firepower to keep scoring at a high rate and make the playoffs.
Toronto Maple Leafs (28-18-15, 3rd in Atlantic)
PDO rank: 5
Even-strength shooting percentage: 8.8 percent
Even-strength save percentage: .928
Even-strength Corsi for percentage: 49.6
Toronto went through some tough times when star center Auston Matthews was out of the lineup, but the team appears to be back on track now. With Matthews on the ice, the Leafs have a 56.4 percent high-danger shot percentage, and have outscored opponents 39-17.
Even with a high PDO, Toronto has several players who could explode in the second half, including Mitch Marner. The second-year forward ranks third on the Leafs in points despite a 6.4 percent shooting percentage that's well down from his 10.8 last season. Veteran Leo Komarov has only scored on 5.1 percent of his shots, after converting on 12.3 percent in 2016-17.
The Leafs could still use some help on defense and appear likely to make a move at the trade deadline, which could help boost their overall Corsi for percentage.
In goal, it appears they made the right move last offseason in trading for Frederik Andersen, who has a .920 save percentage. Andersen's .925 even-strength save percentage and .890 shorthanded save percentage are on par with his career marks, indicating that his success is sustainable.
Looking ahead: Despite its high percentages, Toronto might not have peaked yet. If they add at the deadline and continue to receive spectacular play from Matthews and good goaltending, they can easily overcome a run of bad puck luck.
Worst PDO
Pittsburgh Penguins (27-21-3, 3rd in Metro)
PDO rank: 31st
Even-strength shooting percentage: 5.8 percent
Even-strength save percentage: .906
Even-strength Corsi for percentage: 52.4 percent
The Penguins entered the All-Star break winning seven of their past 10, and they may finally be starting to get some breaks (and goaltending).
Superstar Sidney Crosby had an incredible run of bad luck in the Penguins' first 51 games. Sid has never finished a season with under an even-strength shooting percentage under 10.0, but this season just 5.6 percent of his shots in that situation have ended up in the back of the net. The Pens have completely mauled opponents with him on the ice, putting 118 more shots on goal with Crosby playing, yet Pittsburgh has been out-scored 25-35 during his minutes. To put it mildly, that trend is unlikely to continue.
Another area that should improve: Goaltending. Matt Murray, who has been between the pipes for each of Pittsburgh's past two Stanley Cups, has just a .903 overall save percentage this season. Even after that tough start, he still has a .918 career save percentage. In other words, he should get back on track.
Looking ahead: Watch out for the Penguins.
Arizona Coyotes (12-29-9, 8th in Pacific)
PDO rank: 30th
Even-strength shooting percentage: 6.4 percent
Even-strength save percentage: .914
Even-strength Corsi for percentage: 47.8 percent
Arizona was a hot pick to take strides forward this season, but instead it is the league's worst team. The Yotes have just three players who have scored double-digit goals, and only two players with more than 30 points. That isn't likely to change in the coming weeks, as they look to sell off parts for assets at the deadline.
However, solid goaltending and a hot streak from Max Domi could make Arizona a little more competitive. Netminder Antti Raanta has a solid .919 save percentage and Domi has scored on just 2.9 percent of his shots this season, compared to 10.2 percent in his past two NHL seasons. Center Derek Stepan also has an incredibly low 6.5 percent shooting percentage that should also go up.
Looking ahead: The Coyotes are in line to score a top draft pick to continue their rebuild. While they might show signs of life, tracking down teams like Buffalo and Ottawa frankly won't do much good in the long term.
Carolina Hurricanes (22-19-8, 8th in Metro)
PDO rank: 29th
Even-strength shooting percentage: 6.8 percent
Even-strength save percentage: .910
Even-strength Corsi for percentage: 53.6 percent
Something just isn't adding up with the Hurricanes. For the past four seasons, they have ranked in the top 11 in the NHL in Corsi for percentage -- and are No. 1 this season -- but haven't even come close to contending. Last season, they ranked sixth in Corsi for percentage, and were still outscored at 5-on-5 by 25 goals. This season, they added Justin Williams to a roster with young talent in Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen and Elias Lindholm, but still sit 17th in even-strength goals.
In net, the Canes hoped Scott Darling was the answer to their struggles, but he's managed just a .892 save percentage. His story is turning out to be similar to that of Eddie Lack, who was acquired by Carolina and fell on tough times. Cam Ward hasn't done much to pick up the slack, posting a .904 save percentage.
Looking ahead: Carolina has been stuck in the mud for years despite improving the roster. They should be more competitive than they are this season. It might be time for the organization -- under new ownership -- to ask whether they need a significant change in system.
Buffalo Sabres (14-26-9, 8th in Atlantic)
PDO rank: 28th
Even-strength shooting percentage: 6.2 percent
Even-strength save percentage: .920
Even-strength Corsi for percentage: 47.2 percent
While the Sabres might not have figured in the Cup conversation this season, it's safe to say Sabres fans expected a lot more out of their squad in 2017-18. It's stunning that Jack Eichel has 49 points in 49 games and the Sabres are still dead last in goals per game.
Certainly a lack of skill down the lineup has played a role, but the struggles of forwards Kyle Okposo and Sam Reinhart have come as a surprise. Reinhart, the No. 2 overall pick in 2014, is only playing 15:50 in ice time per game, and Okposo has his lowest shot rate since 2012-13. Overall, Buffalo has the fewest high-danger shot attempts in the league.
The Sabres were also hoping for more out of goalies Chad Johnson and Robin Lehner. During the past two seasons, Johnson had a .916 save percentage. This season, he's been one of the league's worst goalies, with an .884 save percentage.
Looking ahead: The only hope the Sabres have for second-half progress is that the team comes together behind coach Phil Housley. But with Evander Kane potentially on the move via trade, it's hard to see them taking a big stride forward.
Montreal Canadiens (20-23-6, 5th in Atlantic)
PDO rank: 27th
Even-strength shooting percentage:6.4 percent
Even-strength save percentage: .919
Even-strength Corsi for percentage: 51.2 percent
Here's something we didn't expect from the Habs: A .905 save percentage from star goalie Carey Price.
Since 2013-14, Price has a .928 save percentage and has given Montreal a quality start in 62 percent of his starts. Based on his past, we'd expect a hot streak should be on its way. But the fact that Price's numbers have sunk this low -- and stayed this low all season -- should be cause for concern about his future as an elite goalie.
The Canadiens' scoring struggles are due in part to Shea Weber's absence. He's played in just 26 games this season. But the fact that the Habs haven't gotten much out of super-skilled forwards Jonathan Drouin (the No. 3 pick in 2013) and Alex Galchenyuk (the No. 3 pick in 2012) could mean more changes are on the way. The two have combined for just 19 goals this season.
Looking ahead: Unless everything falls into place fast, Montreal may be looking to blow things up at the deadline.