Pekka Rinne's first Stanley Cup Final game was flat-out bizarre.
In Monday night's contest, the Pittsburgh Penguins had the fewest number of shots Rinne has faced in any of his 65 playoff starts -- by five. It was only the sixth time he has seen fewer than 20 shots in a postseason start.
The Nashville Predators goaltender faced fewer total shots in Game 1 against the Penguins than he did in the first period of the clinching match in the Western Conference finals against the Anaheim Ducks.
And yet, he lost.
Any goalie, at any level, will tell you that that facing 11 shots, as Rinne did in Game 1, is not ideal. Netminders always say they would prefer to face a consistent number of shots to stay warm. If that's the case, then the Finnish goalie was ice cold by the time a 37-minute shotless streak was broken by a wrister from forward Jake Guentzel -- a shot that went past Rinne to give the Penguins a 4-3 lead, en route to a 5-3 Game 1 win after an empty-netter.
Regardless of the wacky nature of Rinne's first Stanley Cup Final game, the 34-year-old goalie will now face questions about whether he's up to the task of handling the Penguins. If he bounces back, Rinne has a chance at a historic playoff performance and the Conn Smythe Trophy for the MVP of the postseason.
Which will it be?
Flirting with history, fighting regression
Going into Monday night's game, Rinne had the 15th-best playoff save percentage in history for any goalie with more than five playoff games. In series victories over Chicago, St. Louis and Anaheim, he posted the same save percentage as Olaf Kolzig during his incredible 1998 performance, during which he dragged the Washington Capitals into the Stanley Cup Final, and was just ahead of Tim Thomas' magical 2011 performance that led the Bruins to a title.
After he gave up four goals on 11 shots, Rinne's save percentage sank from .941 to .934, driving him all the way down to 44th place. Still, his current mark is on par with Patrick Roy's Cup-winning performance in 2001. If he were to maintain his current save percentage, Rinne would very likely win the Conn Smythe.
Predicting whether the longtime Preds goalie will bounce back, get back on track or raise his play is nearly impossible in such a small sample, but you would probably bet against it based on his history and his opponent.
Prior to this year's playoffs, Rinne had been a mediocre regular-season and playoff goalie. During the past four seasons, his .914 save percentage is dead-on league average. In the postseason, he was basically the same, giving the Predators a .912 save percentage and a quality start (better than league average save percentage or fewer than three goals) in 26 of his 48 games (54.1 percent).
Now compare those numbers to this postseason. His save percentage is 22 points higher, and Rinne has 13 quality starts in 17 games (76.5 percent).
If a career .250-hitting baseball player took a .350 postseason batting average into the World Series, we would expect him to fall off. It is fair to wonder if Rinne will run into regression.
Think of the bad luck that he faced in the opening contest. Rinne is normally magnificent with his glove, but an Evgeni Malkin shot from outside glanced off his mitt into the goal. On Pittsburgh's second goal, the Predators had a rare defensive lapse, giving Conor Sheary a tap-in goal. Then a puck bounced in off of Nashville's most steady defender Mattias Ekholm. Those are the types of tough-luck goals Rinne hadn't allowed in the first three rounds.
He also hadn't gone up against a group of scorers like the Penguins boast. During the playoffs, Pittsburgh averages 3.15 goals per game, best of any team, despite averaging the 12th-most shots on goal per match. The Sidney Crosby-led power play has 15 goals in 59 attempts (25.4 percent), tops among teams that made it past the first round.
Flying high on offense is nothing new for the Penguins, who ranked No. 1 in the NHL in scoring during the regular season. Rinne's opponents in the first three rounds of the playoffs were significantly inferior, ranking ninth (Chicago), 12th (St. Louis) and 18th (Anaheim) in goal scoring.
Simply put: It will take better play against the Penguins for Rinne to keep up his playoff pace.
Help on defense
The Predators have the most impressive defense corps in the NHL, with four defensemen who would be considered top-pair talents on most teams. They certainly lived up to the hype in Game 1.
P.K. Subban was on the ice for 17 shot attempts for and just five against and Roman Josi was on ice for 15 Penguins attempts, but only five made it to Rinne and zero were in the "high danger" zone.
While allowing 11 shots against Rinne was an unusual result, puck dominance has been the norm for the Predators' defense during the entire postseason. According to the analytics website Natural Stat Trick, in 310 minutes together, Subban and Ekholm have taken 53.6 percent of shot attempts, and been on the ice for just six even-strength goals against. At 46.4 percent, the Josi-Ryan Ellis pair hasn't put up the Corsi numbers that Subban-Ekholm has, but they have been deployed for 132 defensive zone faceoffs compared to just 95 in the offensive zone.
We often don't hear much from third-pair defensemen in the playoffs, but Matt Irwin and Yannick Weber have managed a 53.3 Corsi for percentage in 167 minutes, and allowed just four goals.
While the Preds' defense is known best for its puck-moving talent rather than its lockdown ability, Nashville has allowed the second-fewest shots on goal per 60 minutes in the playoffs of any team that made it beyond the first round. Only the Blues allowed fewer high-danger shots per 60 minutes than the Predators.
The bottom line
The loss of Ryan Johansen has weakened the Predators' scoring attack, and they are matching up with a terrific opposing goalie in Pittsburgh's Matt Murray. Since returning from a hand injury, Murray has a .936 save percentage and four quality starts in five starts. Rinne will need to be on his game to match up with the Penguins' goalie phenom.
Can he do it? Even if Rinne was thrown off by a rough outing in Game 1, he can be confident that his defense will give him the opportunity to finish the series with a great performance. Making history will be up to him.