The Stanley Cup finals are familiar territory for the Pittsburgh Penguins, who have qualified for the fourth time in 10 seasons, but it's brand new territory for the Nashville Predators, who had only three playoff series wins in franchise history prior to this season.
To defeat the Penguins, opponents need to find a way to shut down Sidney Crosby, with enough defensive focus leftover to contain Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel. The Predators are the rare team with two elite defensive pairings capable of doing just that.
In fact, P.K. Subban and the rest of Nashville's defensemen's threat of scoring can place the Penguins in an uncharacteristically defensive mode.
If all of these big names cancel each other out, then it could come down to which team can produce the most credible secondary threat. From that perspective, players like James Neal and Patric Hornqvist could be the difference-makers in who ultimately hoists the Stanley Cup.
Let's take a closer look at each individual of these critical matchups to determine which team has the edge in each case:
Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Roman Josi, Nashville Predators
The most important head-to-head matchup is the one intended to shut down Crosby. He is Pittsburgh's captain, a finalist for the Hart Trophy, last year's Conn Smythe winner and still the world's best hockey player.
The task of containing Crosby will mostly fall on the shoulders of Josi and his partner, Ryan Ellis. As shown in the following player usage chart, Nashville coach Peter Laviolette leans heavily on his top four defensemen against top opponents (the vertical axis) with a slight preference for deploying Josi and Ellis in the defensive zone (the horizontal axis).
Note: Data used to generate the charts is from Corsica Hockey. The charts are of my own design, with elements developed by Gabriel Desjardins and Timothy Barnes.
The big white circles on the player-usage chart reveal a potential weakness for Crosby to exploit. These circles are based on each player's shot-based metrics, and Nashville has been outshot 338-315 with Josi on the ice at 5-on-5, while allowing a team-high 13 goals.
Edge: Pittsburgh
Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins vs. P.K. Subban, Nashville Predators
The trick about shutting down Pittsburgh is that Malkin and Kessel can run up the score if too much attention is focused on Crosby. And that's exactly what has happened so far in the playoffs, where Malkin leads the NHL with 24 points in 19 games, and Kessel is tied for third with 19 points.
The Predators may be the one team who has the perfect counter-strategy to this situation. Not only do they have a second pairing that is just as capable as taking on top opponents as their first, but Subban has the skills to threaten a quick transition, and to exploit any of his competition's defensive weaknesses.
Subban's offensive prowess forces opponents to forecheck more carefully, or risk allowing even more goals than they can produce. That's why Subban and his defensive-minded partner Mattias Ekholm were the perfect pairing for Laviolette to deploy against Vladimir Tarasenko of the Blues, and Ryan Getzlaf of the Anaheim Ducks.
Given that the charismatic Subban is a prime source of energy and motivation for both the team and its fans, this matchup could be the most crucial.
Edge: Nashville
Filip Forsberg, Nashville Predators vs. Brian Dumoulin, Pittsburgh Penguins
Due to a leg injury sustained by the team's No. 1 center Ryan Johansen in the series against the Anaheim Ducks, Nashville was forced to break up one of the league's most effective top lines. Viktor Arvidsson was moved to a line with Calle Jarnkrok and James Neal, and Forsberg was given the more ambitious assignment of playing with Colton Sissons and rookie Pontus Aberg.
With a team-leading 15 points in 16 games in the playoffs, Forsberg has already scored more points than his two new linemates did in the regular season, 14. In just two games, Forsberg has helped Sissons and Aberg score four and three points, respectively. In total, the Predators have outscored opponents 17-4 with Forsberg on the ice at 5-on-5. Obviously, shutting down Forsberg will be the key to neutralizing this hot new line.
As revealed by the following player-usage chart, Pittsburgh coach Mike Sullivan hasn't really worried about line matching or zone matching with his defensemen. With the possible exception of keeping Justin Schultz and Ian Cole focused on scoring, he tends to roll his defensemen equally, even when someone like Chad Ruhwedel is filling in due to injury.
In key situations, Brian Dumoulin and Ron Hainsey tend to draw the tough assignments, both at even strength and when shorthanded. They were the ones who faced Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom of the Washington Capitals, for example, and they also got ample time against Ottawa's Erik Karlsson.
This was also the case in the regular season, where Dumoulin's most frequent opponents on Pittsburgh's other divisional rivals included Mats Zuccarello of the New York Rangers, Claude Giroux of the Philadelphia Flyers and John Tavares of the New York Islanders.
Dumoulin may not be one of Pittsburgh's big names, nor does he have one of its big contracts, but the underrated 25-year-old has been one of the team's most valuable defensive specialists and penalty killers all season, and will be relied upon to shut Forsberg's new line down before it gains any more momentum. However, the edge goes to the young Swede.
Edge: Nashville
James Neal, Nashville Predators vs. Patric Hornqvist, Pittsburgh Penguins
In a trade that worked out well for both teams, Nashville acquired Neal from Pittsburgh in exchange for Hornqvist and Nick Spaling at the 2014 draft. Since then, both Neal and Hornqvist have been reliable sources of secondary scoring, with 136 points in 219 games for Neal, and 146 points in 216 games for Hornqvist. If the top players cancel each other out, then the series may be decided by which team can generate the strongest secondary scoring threat. That's where Neal and Hornqvist come in.
Since Johansen's injury, Neal has been playing on a line with Arvidsson and Jarnkrok. Though scoreless in their two games together, they have taken 32 shot attempts with Neal on the ice, which leads the team's forwards.
As for Hornqvist, he missed all but the first game of the Eastern Conference finals against the Ottawa Senators with an upper-body injury, but is expected back for Game 1.
The question is whether he'll have the opportunity to play in the top six, and potentially face Neal head to head. So far in the playoffs, Hornqvist has played 48:28 on the top line with Crosby, and 63:25 on Nick Bonino's checking line, according to the data compiled at Natural Stat Trick.
Regardless of where they play, Neal and Hornqvist share a common style that is about putting a high volume of shots on net. Since Hornqvist's first full season in 2009-10, he has taken 1,805 shots in 551 games, which is almost exactly the same as Neal, who has taken 1,806 in 555. On a per-game basis, the two players rank 17th and 19th in the NHL in that span, respectively.
Edge: Too close to call