In Game 4 of their first-round series, the New York Rangers defeated the Montreal Canadiens 2-1, tying the series at two games apiece and ultimately turning it into a best-of-three.
Each of the final three games could boil down to one of five key individual matchups, such as which goalie plays better, which top forward scores when it matters most, which No. 1 defenseman shuts down those top forwards in key defensive situations or which coach implements the best strategy.
In the majority of these cases, Montreal has a slight advantage, which means this remaining best-of-three series is tilting in its direction. Let's dive into the numbers behind each of these five key individual matchups:
Carey Price vs. Henrik Lundqvist
If any individual determines the outcome of this series, it's most likely to be one of the goalies.
Both goalies are among the best in the world. Lundqvist won the Vezina Trophy in 2011-12 and was a finalist on four other occasions, and Price won the Vezina and Hart Trophy in 2014-15. Both goalies have risen to the challenge so far this series, where they have nearly identical save percentages of .944 and .942, respectively.
Looking back to the regular season allows us to break the tie in Price's favor. Lundqvist had the first below-average season of his career, which dates to 2005-06, and he even surrendered the No. 1 job to backup Antti Raanta for a time. As for Price, he started very strong, then struggled to a low point in mid-January before coming back and finishing strong.
Both goalies have the same ability to deliver consistent goaltending, but Price has surpassed Lundqvist in the ability to steal games. To illustrate that point statistically, consider that during the past three seasons combined Price and Lundqvist have nearly identical quality start percentages of 60.7 and 60.6 percent, respectively, but Price leads all goalies with a .929 save percentage, compared with .917 for Lundqvist. At this stage of their careers, Price is more likely to steal a series.
Edge: Canadiens
Shea Weber vs. Ryan McDonagh
When Montreal GM Marc Bergevin traded P.K. Subban to acquire Shea Weber, it was largely to get an edge in this key category at the expense of long-term contractual difficulties.
In his 12-season career, Weber has established himself as the very epitome of what it means to play tough minutes. He takes on the toughest opponents, in any zone, at any score and any manpower situation. That's a big reason why Weber is a three-time Norris Trophy finalist and a four-time first- or second-team All-Star.
Though McDonagh hasn't received nearly that much recognition, he closely matches Weber in these regards. During the past four seasons, his most frequent opponents in terms of ice time against are John Tavares (164:10), Alex Ovechkin (153:52) and Nicklas Backstrom (132:44), according to Hockey Analysis, and his offensive zone start percentage of 45.2 percent is even lower than Weber's, at 46.8 percent.
If Weber has an edge, it's largely because his teams have relied on him to a greater extent and because of his greater scoring, as illustrated in the table below.
Weber also has the edge in this series. According to the data at Natural Stat Trick, scoring chances are 32-20 in Montreal's favor when Weber has been on the ice, whereas the Rangers are down 45-28 with McDonagh. In terms of points, Weber is outscoring McDonagh 3-1. So, although the comparison is closer than most people might realize, Weber is the stronger No. 1 defenseman.
Edge: Canadiens
Alexander Radulov vs. Mats Zuccarello
While Radulov is outscoring Zuccarello six points to one so far this series, which player would most teams prefer to have on the ice when the team desperately needs a goal?
It's difficult to accurately measure Radulov's true scoring level. After dominating the KHL for the past eight seasons (and a brief return for Nashville in 2011-12), Radulov returned to the NHL at age 30 and scored roughly as many points as he did when he left it. He scored 58 points in 81 games for Nashville in 2007-08 and 54 points in 76 games for Montreal this season. In the interim, he scored 492 points in 391 games in the KHL, which we statistically estimate would have been roughly a point-per-game level in the NHL. Which set of numbers of most reflective of his true abilities?
We can be more certain about Zuccarello's scoring acumen. He scored 59 points in 80 games this season, which led the Rangers for the third time in his four full NHL seasons. In those seasons combined, his 228 points in 316 games ranks 35th in the league.
In the 2016-17 regular season, Zuccarello edged Radulov 59-58 in points, but the gap widens to 45-38 at even strength, which leads to a scoring rate of 2.00 points per 60 minutes for Zuccarello and 1.67 for Radulov.
In terms of shot-based metrics, Zuccarello boosted New York's share of all on-ice shot attempts from 46.5 percent to 51.4 percent, whereas Radulov boosted Montreal from 52.3 to 54.0.
In addition, Radulov took 31 penalties and drew 19, whereas Zuccarello took 12 penalties and drew 21. The diminutive Zuccarello even threw more hits, 85-76. The more numbers that are examined, the more the picture tilts toward Zuccarello.
Radulov might have the edge so far in this series, but that might be more of a testament to how effectively Weber has shut down Zuccarello, sharing that credit with the forward line of Paul Byron, Tomas Plekanec and Brendan Gallagher. But when desperate for a goal, Zuccarello is probably the player most teams would want on the ice.
Edge: Rangers
Max Pacioretty vs. Derek Stepan
The series could boil down to the play of Montreal's captain and most important forward, Max Pacioretty, who scored a career-high 67 points in the regular season and led the team in scoring for the sixth straight season.
Unlike Radulov, Pacioretty is relied upon to do more than score. He is a key two-way forward who is trusted to take on top opponents, kill penalties and defend leads. In these regards, his closest counterpart on the Rangers is Derek Stepan, the team's third-highest-paid player.
Stepan doesn't measure up to Pacioretty offensively, but he has consistently scored between 44 and 57 points in each of his seven NHL seasons. During that time, he ranks 41st in the NHL with 360 points in 515 games, whereas Pacioretty ranks 17th in his six full seasons, with 362 points in 439 games.
Defensively, Stepan is certainly Pacioretty's equal, and arguably is superior. In the past four seasons, his most frequent opponents are Alex Ovechkin (118:44), Nicklas Backstrom (106:18), Travis Zajac (94:55), Sidney Crosby (87:37) and John Tavares (81:39). And yet, he's tied with Marian Hossa for 12th with a plus-62 in that span.
With a single point apiece in the playoffs so far, this is a key matchup that could fall either way, but Pacioretty's superior goal-scoring ability gives the Canadiens a slight advantage.
Edge: Canadiens
Claude Julien vs. Alain Vigneault
When the Boston Bruins hastily dismissed Claude Julien on Feb. 7, Montreal wasted no time hiring him. And why not? Julien is one of the most accomplished coaches in the game today.
The primary coaching metric compares a team's actual points in the standings with the team's preseason expectations. In this regard, Julien has added 48.6 points to his teams over the years, which ranks third among active coaches. Rangers coach Alain Vigneault ranks fourth with 46.6.
Since that's so close, we have to look into each coach's pre-NHL careers. In Julien's case, he added 28.3 points to the Hamilton Bulldogs in two and a half seasons in the AHL and won the championship in his long season coaching in the QMJHL, with the Hull Olympiques in 1996-97. Vigneault also led the Olympiques to a championship, but his numbers in his full 10 seasons in the QMJHL were around league average. That might break the tie in Julien's favor.
Even if it were still too close to call, perhaps the ultimate way to break the tie was with their head-to-head matchup in the 2011 Stanley Cup when Vigneault was bench boss in Vancouver -- we all know who won that one.
Edge: Canadiens
Final outlook
The margins are small, but Montreal has the edge in four of the five most important individual matchups.
While each team is blessed with a strong goalie, a top shutdown defenseman, solid top-line forwards and an exceptional coach, the numbers suggest the Canadiens have the slightly better option in each case.
Anything can happen in what amounts to a best-of-three series, but if it boils down to one of these five matchups, then Montreal is favored to advance.