If one had only looked at the regular season standings, the Nashville Predators' 2-0 lead over the Chicago Blackhawks would be pretty surprising.
A strong second half led the Blackhawks to a Central Division title with 109 points, while the Predators managed just 94 points, which was tied for the fewest of any team to make the Stanley Cup playoffs.
But the standings lie to us in hockey. The last three teams to represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup finals all finished third in their division during the regular season.
One thing the 2013-14 Kings, 2014-15 Blackhawks and 2015-16 Sharks all had in common: A deeper analysis of their statistics revealed they were more dangerous than the regular season standings suggested.
The same goes for the Predators this year.
A close series by the numbers
Not only do the Predators' numbers point to a team that was better than a fourth-place finish, they indicate that it was predictable that they would be a tough matchup for Chicago, because the two teams were nearly identical in key statistical areas.
When playing even-strength hockey this season, Chicago potted 164 goals to Nashville's 159, a difference of 0.01 per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time.
The Blackhawks received slightly better even-strength goaltending -- ranking best in the West to the Predators' fourth -- but Nashville had a better shot attempt differential, posting the Western Conference's second best Corsi for percentage. The gap wasn't huge, though, as Chicago finished just 1.0 percentage point behind and had the fifth best Corsi for percentage in the West:
Nashville also had the slight advantage during the regular season on special teams. They ranked 16th in the NHL in power-play percentage and 15th on the penalty kill, while the Blackhawks were 19th and 24th, respectively.
The Predators were even the hotter team heading into the playoffs. Since March 1, the underdogs in this series had a plus-13 even-strength goal differential to the Blackhawks' minus-4, and Chicago was out-attempted by a small margin (49.4 Corsi for percentage) by its opponents over the final 22 games.
The goalie comparison wasn't close during the final month or so. Pekka Rinne came into the playoffs blazing hot, with a .958 even-strength save percentage in March and April, while Corey Crawford was below his usual numbers, with a .917 even-strength save percentage since the beginning of March. So it shouldn't be stunning that Rinne has kept Chicago's offense in check.
Dominant defensemen
But goaltending is hardly the only reason Nashville has slowed down the Blackhawks' scorers in the first two games. The Predators have a good case for boasting the NHL's best blue line. Instead of having one top pairing that is forced to handle all the tough minutes, Nashville has two pairs that would be the best set of defensemen on many teams.
The top pair of P.K. Subban and Mattias Ekholm complement each other's skill sets nicely. Subban, a former Canadien, is often very aggressive offensively, using his powerful skating and skill to step up into the offensive rush and make plays, while Ekholm is a solid defender whose length and smarts give Subban a chance to take risks or lock down top opponents, depending on the situation.
Ryan Ellis and Roman Josi are two of the most underappreciated blueliners in the league. Each has offensive skill, combining for 87 points, and successfully took just as many defensive zone faceoffs as the Subban-Ekholm pair. They also matched up against the same quality of competition in terms of opponents' goals for per 60 minutes.
Having two great pairs of defensemen is absolutely necessary to slow down Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane, who play on separate lines. Nashville coach Peter Laviolette sent Subban out against Toews for 9:25 of "Captain Serious'" 16:46 total time on ice in Game 1, and Josi played 10:16 against Kane.
Chicago was the better team across the board in Game 1 with more shot attempts, scoring chances and close shots, but in Game 2, the Preds' defenders were dominant. Ryan Ellis came out plus-11 in shot attempts, while the Subban-Ekholm pair were plus-5.
An improved forward group
In the past, Nashville has lacked players with high-end offensive gifts to match up with a team like Chicago. This time around, Viktor Arvidsson has emerged as an explosive offensive player. His 2.37 points per 60 minutes at even strength ranked 14th in the NHL this season, and he was seventh in relative Corsi. When Arvidsson was on the ice, the Predators created 12 more shot attempts per 60 minutes than when he was off, a rate similar to Sidney Crosby's and Brad Marchand's.
By those metrics, the former fourth-round pick had a better season than Patrick Kane, who notched 2.28 points per 60 minutes at even strength, and a 4.57 relative Corsi.
Depth has also become an issue for Chicago during the past two seasons. In the past, if Toews and Kane's lines were slowed, players like Kris Versteeg, Andrew Shaw and Bryan Bickell -- who combined for 42 goals in 2014-15 -- could step up against opponents' lower lines. But the days of Chicago having quality scoring depth have gone by the wayside. This gives the Predators an advantage, as Nashville had 12 players score in double digits this season, compared to only seven for the Blackhawks.
Looking ahead
Despite some areas of their game that are equal or better to Chicago, the Predators are hardly in the clear. Chicago's top-end talent can still get hot and take the series over.
Kane, for example, has 121 points in 125 career playoff games, and hasn't shown any signs of his regular season production slipping. His linemate Artemi Panarin was one of the NHL's best players this season, not only scoring 74 points but improving the Blackhawks' shot attempt differential by 10.7 percent while on the ice, the best percentage in the league. Kane, Panarin and center Artem Anisimov have the capability to take over the series.
Crawford does, too. He's stopped 43 of 49 shots thus far, but he has a .919 career playoff save percentage and two Stanley Cups. Rinne's résumé isn't quite as impressive. He's put up just one above-average postseason out of five trips before this year.
So we can expect some fight out of the Blackhawks before the series is over. But, this Predators group is clearly one that the rest of the West needs to take just as seriously as the Blackhawks; whoever comes out of this series has a real shot at being the West's representative in the Stanley Cup finals.