When superstar winger Steven Stamkos suffered a knee injury in mid-November, it shouldn't have ended the Tampa Bay Lightning's season.
After all, the Lightning were just coming off a run to the Eastern Conference finals, and the only game in which Stamkos played for the entire playoff stretch was Game 7 of the conference finals.
The same stars have been in place this regular season, but this time around they fell apart, with the team dropping all the way to last place in the Atlantic Division as recently as Feb. 8.
What happened? Why couldn't Tampa Bay overcome the loss of Stamkos as they did in the past? Can they bounce back quickly, or are they in big trouble as teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs and Buffalo Sabres become contenders in the Atlantic Division during the next few years?
Here are four factors that led to their demise this season and four big moves they should make to get back on top in 2017-18.
What went wrong?
Goaltending
Heading into the 2016-17 season, the Lightning thought they were in a "good problem to have" situation with two very talented goalies. Veteran Ben Bishop finished second in the Vezina Trophy voting last season, sporting a terrific .926 save percentage and providing a quality start (higher than .915 save percentage or fewer than two goals) in 61.7 percent of his starts. Considering his history as a starter, Tampa Bay couldn't have expected his save percentage would drop to .910, its lowest mark since 2011-12, or that his quality start percentage would dip to 48.3.
When Bishop went down with a knee injury during the playoffs last spring, youngster Andrei Vasilevskiy stepped in and performed brilliantly, but he has not carried that performance over to 2016-17. Tampa Bay's 21-year-old goalie has won just 11 of 27 starts and has produced quality starts in only 14 of those games.
In terms of actual goals, the seasonal difference between the goalies' performances is significant. Last season, Tampa Bay finished with a .917 team save percentage (seventh in the NHL), but this season they sit at .907 (19th), which equates to a 16.7 goal difference on the 1,671 shots the Lightning have faced this season.
Tyler Johnson's slide
Expectations might have been set too high after Johnson's brilliant 2014-15 season in which he totaled 29 goals and 43 assists in 77 games. Not only did he produce a high point total, but Johnson did the majority of his damage at 5-on-5, leading the NHL at 3 points per 60 even-strength minutes, just ahead of Jamie Benn and Rick Nash. But those numbers have sunk like a rock the past two seasons, suggesting that his huge 2014-15 season was the outlier rather than the norm:
When Stamkos went down, the Lightning hoped that Johnson would carry the load along with Nikita Kucherov, but all of Johnson's underlying numbers have continued to slide. Here is a look at how far his goals for percentage, shots for percentage and Corsi for percentage have all dropped:
His personal shot rate has been cut nearly in half, from 10 per 60 minutes in 2014-15 to just 5.4 this season. If the 26-year-old center had been putting shots on net at the same rate at his career 13.0 shooting percentage, he would have around seven more goals this season.
Not only have the Lightning been let down by Johnson's performance, but barring a bounce-back, they are left in a difficult position concerning his future contract. Johnson is one of three foundational players hitting restricted free agency after this season. Tampa Bay will have to decide whether they want to invest long term in a player whose production has drifted so far down.
Lack of depth production
Johnson is hardly the only Lightning player having a disappointing season. Last season, J.T. Brown scored 1.28 points per 60 minutes at even strength, a decent mark for a bottom-six forward. In 2016-17, he has just one goal and three assists in 405 minutes, good for a 0.59 per 60 rate, the 13th-worst in the NHL among forwards with 300 or more minutes played.
Tampa Bay put their pucks in Brayden Point's basket instead of re-signing Jonathan Marchessault, and that decision has not worked out. A former third-round pick, Point lit up the WHL last season to the tune of 88 points in 48 games, but his offensive skills have not yet translated to the NHL, as he's potted just three 5-on-5 goals. And Marchessault? He's scored 33 points in 47 games for the Florida Panthers this season.
Winger Erik Condra did not work out as planned, either. He went scoreless in 13 games before being waived. None of the AHL call-ups like Matthew Peca, Cory Conacher or Gabriel Dumont have added more than a single goal.
In the past, a lack of scoring at the bottom of the lineup wouldn't have been much of an issue, but in trying to make up for losing Stamkos, who had 20 points in 17 games, the Lightning needed much more from their third and fourth lines.
Injuries
Stamkos has hardly been the only Tampa Bay player to miss time. According to ManGamesLost, the Lightning have lost the sixth-most minutes in average ice time to injuries. Ryan Callahan has missed 37 games, and while he has underperformed since signing a long-term deal with Tampa Bay, he still scored 1.50 points per 60 minutes last season.
Tampa Bay's other injuries have mostly been short term, but have come in waves. Point has been out for 14 games, young star Jonathan Drouin eight, Anton Stralman nine, and Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat both were dinged up for seven contests.
The accumulation of missed time has added up to a lack of continuity in the lineup, which the Lightning couldn't afford with their superstar out.
How they get back on track
Trade Brian Boyle and Ben Bishop at the deadline
While the race isn't over for the Atlantic Division, the Lightning's odds of making a Cup run are extremely slim. So that means they should sell at the trade deadline rather than either buying or sticking with the current squad in hopes of a hot streak.
Bishop's struggles this season may limit GM Steve Yzerman's options to make a deal, but if there is a buyer, the Lightning need to get draft picks or prospects in return rather than hoping to re-sign the veteran goalie, who currently carries a $5.95 million cap hit, to a long-term contract.
Who would have expected Brian Boyle to be one of the top targets at the trade deadline? But Tampa Bay's defensive specialist is having a solid campaign offensively with 13 goals and has turned into one of the most sought-after players on the market. Without a huge name on the trade market, there is even a chance Boyle could even snag an early-round pick.
Buy out Ryan Callahan
While Callahan has been a good defensive forward, hard worker and leader during his career, his scoring capability is nowhere close to justifying a $5.8 million cap hit. In the first season of his deal, Callahan posted 24 goals and 30 assists, but his scoring was nearly cut in half in 2015-16. This season he has been injured, but in 18 games, the 31-year-old has scored just two goals and averaged only 1.22 shots per game.
According to CapFriendly, the cap hit next season for buying out the former Ranger would only be $1.06 million. With Johnson, Palat and Drouin's contracts coming up, the Lightning need all the space they can make.
Trade for Kevin Shattenkirk
With superstar defenseman Victor Hedman's cap hit jumping from $4.0 million to $7.9 million next year, the Lightning will have a great deal of cap space invested in their blue line. But Tampa Bay has been severely lacking in a quality second-fiddle defenseman who can produce behind Hedman. Jason Garrison was supposed to be the solution to that problem, but his play has dropped off since his days in Vancouver, and he has just one goal in 52 games this season.
Shattenkirk's defensive prowess has been questioned during his years with the St. Louis Blues, but he has a plus-2.2 relative Corsi since 2014-15, meaning the Blues' shot differentials are improved with him on the ice, and St. Louis is 1.6 percentage points better in goals for percentage with their offensive-minded defenseman playing.
Shattenkirk also has the best points per 60 minute rate (6.96 per 60) of any blueliner in the NHL during the past three seasons. Putting him alongside Stamkos on the power play going forward would strike terror throughout the Eastern Conference.
Find a "just-in-case" goalie
If the Lightning choose to move on from Bishop, they will turn to Vasilevskiy, who is just 22 and largely unproven so far. A .919 even-strength save percentage in 70 regular season games is hardly impressive, but Yzerman would be betting on the future potential rather than the small sample of his career thus far.
Finding a proven backup will be an essential part of the offseason plan, because the Lightning cannot afford to be hurt by goaltending as much as they have been this season. The good news is that there are quite a few seasoned veteran netminders poised to hit free agency this summer, including Ryan Miller, Jonathan Bernier, Steve Mason, Brian Elliott, Chad Johnson and Michal Neuvirth.