After coaching the New York Islanders to a 17-17-8 record and last place in the Metropolitan Division, Jack Capuano was fired Jan. 17. Meanwhile, the Boston Bruins' 23-21-6 record has fueled rumors that coach Claude Julien could be next.
A closer look at each coach's and team's underlying numbers reveals why the two situations are hardly comparable and why the Bruins should keep Julien.
First of all, the Islanders were believed to have a highly competitive roster but have been a profound disappointment, while the Bruins were seen as wild-card contenders at best and have merely been on the wrong side of some bounces.
As for their coaches, Julien has a long track record of success in three leagues and for three NHL teams, including a Jack Adams award in 2008-09 and the Stanley Cup in 2010-11. In contrast, last season was the first time that a Capuano-coached team won a playoff series at any level since he coached the ECHL's Pee Dee Pride in 2000-01.
Finally, when statistically comparing each coach to the field of readily available replacements, Julien stands out in terms of both experience and prior success, while Capuano blends into the pack.
Let's consider each of these points in detail.
Bad luck vs. bad performance
At first glance, the Islanders and Bruins appear to be in a similar statistical boat.
At the time of Capuano's dismissal, which coincidentally occurred after a 4-0 victory over Boston, the Islanders had a points percentage of .500 and had been outscored 125-119. As of Jan. 24, the Bruins have a points percentage of .520 and have been outscored 130-128.
However, a deeper dive into their shot-based metrics reveals just how different these two teams really are.
At even strength, the Bruins have outshot opponents 2,451 attempts to 1,963 this season, for the league's best shot attempt differential (SAT) of plus-488.
In sharp contrast, the Islanders had been outshot 2,146 to 1,853 at the time of Capuano's dismissal, for an SAT of minus-293 that ranked only two shot attempts ahead of the last-place Arizona Coyotes at minus-295.
The main reason both teams have similar goal-based results is that the Islanders had scored on 9.2 percent of their shots, the fourth-highest rate in the NHL, while the Bruins have scored on 5.9 percent of their shots, which ranks last.
Even those who aren't huge believers in shot-based metrics have to agree that's a notable difference that can't be fully explained by concepts such a heart, grit or shot quality.
Capuano vs. Julien
With all due respect to Capuano, who helped rebuild the Islanders from a team that missed the playoffs for five straight seasons into one that topped 100 points for the first time since the end of their dynasty in 1983-84, his career accomplishments don't measure up to Julien's.
When the Islanders defeated the Florida Panthers in last year's playoffs, it was the first time that a Capuano-coached team had advanced at any level since he coached the ECHL's Pee Dee Pride in 2000-01. In nine seasons coaching the Bridgeport Sound Tigers (the Isles' AHL affiliate) and the Islanders, he has a postseason series record of 1-5, with four playoff absences.
In contrast, Julien has won championships with both the QMJHL's Hull Olympiques in 1996-97 and the Boston Bruins in 2010-11. In 12 seasons as an NHL head coach, he has made the playoffs nine times and advanced to at least the second round all but twice. Filling his trophy cabinet further, Julien won the Jack Adams in 2008-09 and the AHL's former equivalent, the Louis A.R. Pieri Memorial Award, in 2002-03 with the Hamilton Bulldogs.
There is a way to compare coaches objectively, and the results agree that Julien is in a higher tier. The simple but trusted method compares how a coach's teams have fared in the standings relative to expectations, which is based on the team's record in the previous season regressed 35 percent toward the league average. The best coaches will keep the good teams good, will improve the bad teams by more than they would have recovered naturally and will boost the average teams.
From this perspective, Julien has added an extra 51.4 points in the standings during his NHL career, which ranks eighth among active coaches. Capuano has added a total of 7.5 extra points, which ranks 19th.
On a per-season basis, that works out to an extra 4.5 points per season for teams coached by Julien and an extra 1.4 for those coached by Capuano. Three points might not sound like much, but statistically, it's equivalent to the contributions of a superstar player such as, oh, John Tavares.
Looking for an upgrade
Early this season, we applied these metrics to all those who would be potentially available to serve as the first head coach for the Vegas Golden Knights.
The study included a total of 185 potentially available coaches, including current NHL assistants, recent former NHL coaches, AHL coaches and additional coaches of prominence in the U.S. college ranks, Canadian major junior leagues and the ECHL. To expand the pool to this size, we included a coach's record as an assistant and/or in other leagues but with lesser weight than results achieved as an NHL head coach.
The results, which can be seen in the following chart, revealed that there were a handful of coaches who separated themselves from the pack in terms of experience (on the horizontal axis), prior success (on the vertical axis) or both.
Although some of the most accomplished coaches in the top right corner of the chart are not realistically available, they are useful as a point of comparison:
While Julien can be easily identified as a coach with both the experience and prior success to separate himself from the pack, Capuano is within the dense collection of readily available coaches. Yes, Capuano is at the upper end of that group, but replacement coaches with his credentials can be found much more easily than those with résumés to match Julien's.
Specifically, Julien ranks eighth among the 185 potentially available coaches in terms of both experience and prior success, and only five coaches can best him on both accounts.
As for Capuano, he ranks 24th in terms of experience and 28th in terms of prior success, and 10 coaches best him on both counts. Statistically, that makes him a decent option but not one who would rank among the best available coaches at any given time.
What should happen
Julien signed a three-year extension on Nov. 2, 2014, and will have missed the playoffs in all three seasons if the Bruins fall short again in this final season of his contract.
Despite those disappointments, the real issue in Boston is the roster. Given Julien's experience and track record of success, it makes sense to sign him to another extension and focus on rebuilding the blue line instead of dismantling the coaching staff.
As for the Islanders, moving Capuano might have been the best decision. Ideally, they can find a new coach who can get the most out of Tavares, who currently ranks 40th in NHL scoring with just 36 points in 45 games.
In that respect, one option is Bob Hartley, who has prior experience coaching superstars such as Peter Forsberg and Joe Sakic in Colorado, Dany Heatley, Marian Hossa and Ilya Kovalchuk in Atlanta and most recently Johnny Gaudreau in Calgary.
Another alternative is Gerard Gallant, who was let go by the Florida Panthers earlier this season. He was the Islanders' assistant coach in 2007-08 and 2008-09, after which he coached the QMJHL's Saint John Sea Dogs to a ridiculous 161-34-9 record in three seasons, including two championships. That's why he might get snapped up quickly by either the Golden Knights or one of several teams that might change coaches at season's end.
Of all the options, the best one might be to wait until the end of the season and then snap up Julien -- if the Bruins are foolish enough to let him go.