George McPhee, general manager for Las Vegas' NHL team, has a lot of choices to make during the next 11 months, one of which is whom to select as the franchise's first coach.
Coaches come in many different styles. Some are motivators, some are teachers, and others are all about managing the bench. It mightr be hard for McPhee to select the perfect coach without knowing the team's roster, but it might also be difficult to pick the team without having some idea of who will coach them.
So far, a lot of the speculation has been grounded in traditional analysis but given the team's commitment to hockey analytics, it makes sense to consider this question from a purely statistical perspective.
Using modern coaching metrics to estimate experience and success, the net was cast far and wide to include all recent former NHL coaches, current NHL assistants with head coaching experience at any level, AHL head coaches, and additional coaches of prominence in the U.S. college ranks, Canadian major junior leagues and the ECHL. In the end, 185 coaches were placed on the following chart, where a few interesting names have pulled away from the pack.
The success/experience matrix
Each coach's experience is on the horizontal axis, in terms of the number of games served behind the bench. One game in the NHL is weighted as equivalent to two in the AHL, and four in any other league, and serving as a head coach is equivalent to four games as an assistant or associate coach. The most experienced coaches are on the far right.
A coach's previous success is on the vertical axis, in terms of the total number of points in the standings that his teams have exceeded expectations, applying the same weights mentioned previously. The coaches whose teams have had the most success are at the top of the chart.
In this case, a team's expectations are based on the previous season's point totals but regressed to the league average by 35 percent. That means that an effective coach keeps good teams good, helps bad teams improve faster than expected, and helps average teams take a stride forward.
This isn't being put forward as a perfect model for evaluating coaches, since the results could vary with different weightings or with a different system for setting a team's expectations. Here, it's intended as a high-level perspective of which coaches warrant a closer look by the Las Vegas management team.
Choosing the right head coach
Clearly, not all of the inclusions on this list would return McPhee's phone call. For example, it doesn't make any sense for 76-year-old legend Red Berenson to leave his 33-year relationship with the University of Michigan to coach an NHL expansion team.
Even though some of the bigger names on the chart might no longer be interested and/or suitable for the role, historic examples like Pittsburgh's assistant coach Jacques Martin, Toronto's special assignment coach Jacques Lemaire, and the KHL's Mike Keenan can help put the experience and previous success of plausible candidates into perspective.
Among the more realistic options, the all-time numbers might be flattering to Terry Murray and Marc Crawford, but their best seasons were long ago, and it doesn't make sense to pry them loose from their current assignments as assistant and/or associate coaches in Buffalo and Ottawa, respectively.
Crawford won the Jack Adams Award with the Quebec Nordiques in 1994-95, and the Stanley Cup with Colorado Avalanche in 1995-96 but hasn't made the Stanley Cup playoffs since he coached the Vancouver Canucks in 2003-04. As for Murray, he has made the playoffs as a head coach only twice since the turn of the century.
The remaining six outliers on the chart can be broken down into those whose primary appeal is experience, or past results. In the former case, the three options include Ron Wilson, Bob Hartley and Andy Murray.
Given his experience with the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim from 1993-94 to 1996-97, Wilson knows what it's like to coach an expansion team. He might have struggled in his last assignment in Toronto, but he coached Washington to its only appearance in the Stanley Cup finals in 1997-98, San Jose to its first appearance in the conference finals in 2003-04, and Team USA to a silver medal at the 2010 Winter Olympics.
As for Hartley, he won championships in four different leagues, including a Stanley Cup with the Colorado Avalanche in 2000-01. In 2006-07, he guided the Atlanta Thrashers to their only appearance in the playoffs, and he won the Jack Adams by guiding the Calgary Flames back into the playoffs in 2014-15.
The most underrated coach on this list is Andy Murray, who won three gold medals at IIHF World Championships and six more at the Spengler Cup, was the runner-up for the Jack Adams in 2008-09, coached the Western Michigan Broncos to the CCHA tournament championship in 2012, and was inducted into the IIHF Hall of Fame in 2011.
On the other hand, McPhee might be saving an experienced coach for when the team becomes more competitive, and might initially focus more on development. If so, the three coaches who stand out statistically are Kevin Constantine, Lorne Molleken and Mark Morris.
If McPhee ultimately chooses to name the team the Golden Knights, then there might not be a better fit than Morris, who is best known as the long-time and highly decorated coach of the Clarkson University Golden Knights. He is currently coaching at St. Lawrence University after a decade of coaching in the AHL, complemented by the occasional NHL assistant coaching assignment.
Otherwise, Constantine might be a perfect fit for a building expansion team, given how he helped the young San Jose Sharks vault up the standings by 58 points in 1993-94, and how he is best known for pulling off two of the greatest first-round upsets in playoff history; that 1993-94 season and in 1998-99 with the Penguins.
Since then, Constantine has spent most of his time in the WHL, where he and Molleken share reputations as two of the league's finest coaches. Though he would primarily be a development coach, Molleken does have five seasons of NHL experience. At the very least, hiring him would give McPhee a chance to apologize for the black eye he gave Molleken in the 1999-2000 preseason.
Rounding out the coaching staff
What about all the other names that have been tossed around by mainstream pundits, like Ralph Krueger, Travis Green, Kevin Dineen, Craig Berube, John Stevens, Tony Granato, Joe Sacco, Bruce Cassidy, Adam Oates, Dale Hunter, Sheldon Keefe, Paul MacLean, John Torchetti and Mike Kitchen?
While none of them stand out statistically as top candidates for the head coaching position based on the chart above, there are positions on the rest of the staff to consider. Of these 14 possibilities, Hunter and Keefe might be the best fits to serve as assistant and/or associate coaches.
Hunter is potentially the most successful OHL coach of modern times, leading the London Knights to championships in 2004-05, 2012-13, and 2015-16. Last season, the Sharks proved how well coaching success in the OHL translates at the NHL level, and the Flames were sufficiently intrigued to hire former OHL coaching sensation Dave Cameron as their assistant coach this summer. It's fair to point out, however, that Hunter did once quit on McPhee, so that may influence his prospects for a job.
Keefe is the least experienced coach on the list but has a jaw-dropping record of 204-90-25 with the OHL's Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds and the AHL's Toronto Marlies, through the end of last season. He is definitely a coach worth watching.
McPhee should also consider U.S. collegiate hockey, which is the greatest untapped market for coaches. Given the immediate success of Dave Hakstol of the Philadelphia Flyers, it's surprising that more teams haven't gone this route to address their coaching needs.
McPhee could get ahead of the curve by pursuing someone like former Chicago assistant Mike Haviland of the struggling Colorado College Tigers, former Islanders assistant Jeff Jackson of the University of Notre Dame, or former Lightning assistant coach George Gwozdecky. There's also Rand Pecknold of the Quinnipiac Bobcats, Dean Blais of the Omaha Mavericks, and Don Lucia of the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
The ECHL is another untapped market. McPhee could be the first to take a chance on Steve Martinson, who has won 10 championships in 21 seasons in related leagues, missing the playoffs only once. And there's Derek Laxdal, whose teams have always been juggernauts, whether it was the Wichita Thunder of the CHL, the Idaho Steelheads of the ECHL, the Edmonton Oil Kings of the WHL or his current assignment with the AHL's Texas Stars.
Finally, there's always an abundance of coaching talent in the Canadian major juniors, like former Bruins associate coach Marc Habscheid of the WHL's Prince Albert Raiders, former Flames assistant Dave Lowry of the WHL's Victoria Royals, Mario Durocher of the Val d'Ors Foreurs, and Benoit Groulx, long-time coach of the Gatineau Olympiques who is now coaching the AHL's Syracuse Crunch.
Whom should McPhee hire?
Obviously, it would be ridiculous to select a coaching staff based entirely on coaching metrics; the "human aspect" of being a leader of men is vital. However, it would also be ridiculous to select a coaching staff without considering their past record in an objective fashion.
Even if statistics are only a secondary perspective, it still makes sense to identify coaches who might have been overlooked by traditional analysis, and therefore deserve greater consideration. In fact, these are the two situations in which statistical analysis is at its best -- serving as a sober second thought to traditional analysis, and finding opportunities that might have been missed.
Judging from the numbers, Wilson, Hartley or Andy Murray would be good options if value is being placed on experience, while someone like Constantine, Molleken or Morris would be a good pick if the immediate emphasis is on development. Regardless of which direction is chosen, there are a lot of great choices to round out the staff, especially in the relatively untapped market of U.S. collegiate hockey.