The Calgary Flames entered this season with hopes of returning to the postseason and proving that 2015-16 was a blip on their rebuild radar. Outside of a solid shootout victory against the Chicago Blackhawks on Monday night, the results have been much the same for the Flames thus far, as they've given up 29 goals in their first seven games -- the most in the NHL.
It may be extremely early in the season, but considering the disappointment of last season, it's worth asking: Are the Flames in for another round of poor goaltending and leaky defense, or can they become a legitimate contender in the Pacific Division?
Offseason fixes
After finishing the 2015-16 season ranked dead last in the NHL in 5-on-5 save percentage with a .911 mark, the Flames sought out help between the pipes. Not only did they add former St. Louis Blues netminder Brian Elliott (the leader in save percentage last season), they also acquired former Buffalo Sabres backup Chad Johnson. In 2015-16, Elliott and Johnson combined to face 2,383 shots and stopped 2,203 of them, which adds up to a spectacular .924 save percentage. To put that in context, the NHL's best team save percentage last season belonged to the Blues, who managed a .920 mark between Elliott and Jake Allen.
The Flames also scored the 10th most goals in the NHL last season. So the logic this offseason was pretty simple: If Elliott and Johnson performed even close to what they did in 2015-16 and the Flames' offense could repeat its scoring, they wouldn't just be a playoff team but a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. To wit, if last season's Flames had the same save percentage as the team that ranked 15th (Vancouver) they would have saved 41 goals, so instead of a minus-29 goal differential, they would have outscored opponents by 12 goals. Using the 3-1-1 rule (where three goals improvement gets you one standings point), that's nearly a 14-point swing, which would've put the Flames squarely in the wild-card hunt.
So far, it isn't quite working out the way the Flames envisioned it. After Monday's game, Elliott has given up 16 goals in four games and Johnson nine in three contests. How can we figure out whether the Flames' issues can be attributed to the goalies, the team's defense or small sample size?
Identifying the specific problem
One of the most debated topics in the hockey analytics community is whether a team's shot attempt differential impacts its goaltending. For years, the Blues have had very good goaltending numbers and exceptional Corsi stats. Is that a product of good goalies or the Ken Hitchcock system? The same can be asked about the Boston Bruins and Los Angeles Kings. Conversely, the Flames and Edmonton Oilers have had poor save percentages year after year, along with poor Corsi stats.
With the 2016-17 Flames, we can at least eliminate the possibility that the poor save percentages are because the goalie is getting peppered. Calgary has made a major turnaround in both shot differential and the total number of shot attempts against this season, taking 51.3 percent of the shots in their first six contests. Last season's Dallas Stars were also a dominant Corsi team, but gave up a high number of shot attempts and goals. That is not the case with the Flames, who are in the middle of the league in shot attempts against per 60 minutes.
That's not to say that defense isn't the issue. The Flames have two defensemen out of their regular six who are close to "liability" status -- and they are giving them both huge roles. Dennis Wideman's best days are behind him. Last season, he was the worst defenseman in terms of Corsi for percentage among all Calgary blueliners, at a putrid 44.4. And yet, he's currently playing on the top pairing with star Mark Giordano. Deryk Engelland wasn't far ahead of Wideman, at 45.3 percent in 2015-16, and yet Monday night, he was paired with one of the better puck movers in the league in T.J. Brodie. All the while, Dougie Hamilton, a former first-round pick with size and offensive skill, was skating on the third pair.
Even if the team has been solid in terms of overall Corsi, playing Wideman and Engelland in big roles in the long term is going to hurt. For visual evidence of the argument for loading up the top line with Giordano and Brodie, see the following chart, which shows how much more effective Giordano is when playing with Brodie (data from the past three seasons):
Another issue with the defensive effort is that the team relies heavily on a group of young forwards who are bound to make defensive mistakes. The fourth overall selection in 2014, Sam Bennett is in just his second full season and is expected to play a bigger role in 2016-17, while 18-year-old Matthew Tkachuk has received regular ice time.
Hope for a turnaround
Despite this, most of the numbers point to a likely return to the mean in terms of goal prevention. While opponents have lit the lamp with regularity against the Flames, their overall save percentage is weighed down significantly by an .818 rate on the penalty kill. To put that in context, the league's lowest short-handed save percentage last season was .830. The bad news is that this .830 number belonged to the Flames, but a change in coach, better goalies and maybe a few better bounces should change that.
At even strength, which tends to be much more predictable than short-handed play, the Flames' goaltending isn't as putrid in its rank, but is still under .900, which should also go up significantly. Elliott has a career .921 5-on-5 save percentage and Johnson's is even better at .925. It seems that even if one of them falls off the map, there's a good chance the other picks up the slack.
Even if Calgary's defense and goaltending continue to be an issue, their forward group and set of offensively gifted defensemen are dangerous enough to mitigate some of the effects. Last season, Johnny Gaudreau added his name to the list of the best scorers in the league, tallying 76 points, while young center Sean Monahan wasn't far behind, with 63 points. Improvements to the team's depth with the additions of Kris Versteeg and Troy Brouwer should act as a nice add-on to a group that was productive at even strength last season. However, the Flames will have to improve on the power play in order to cancel out penalty killing shortcomings. Despite all the skill up front, they only ranked 22nd in the NHL last season.
So there isn't much reason for panic yet. But the strength of the Central Division may only allow for the top three teams in the Pacific to get into the playoffs, so even a moderate stretch of bad defense and goaltending may prove costly. The Flames should consider playing Giordano and Brodie together, and upping Hamilton's minutes to reduce the amount of time that Engelland and Wideman spend on the ice. Otherwise, the problems could continue and they'll spend another spring on the golf course instead of in the playoffs.