It seems like every year there is one division in the NHL that runs away from the rest. Each of the last two seasons, that division has been the Central, which sent five teams to the playoffs in 2014-15 and 2015-16. This year, the Metropolitan is top dog and it isn't close.
The Metro sports four of the best five records in the Eastern Conference and the four best goal differentials. The team with the worst record in the Metro, the New York Islanders, has a better goal differential than five teams in the Atlantic.
At the top of the Metro there are four teams within shouting distance of each other. The Washington Capitals, Columbus Blue Jackets, Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Rangers are close in record, regulation wins and goal differential.
But which of the four teams has the best case to represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup finals?
In order to figure out which team has the best shot, we have to answer this question first: What does a Stanley Cup contender look like on paper?
Washington Capitals
The case for the Capitals
After a 58-18-8 regular season in 2015-16, the Capitals seemed bound for some regression, but instead they are even stronger by many metrics this year. They have moved up from 14th in team Corsi For Percentage last year to sixth in the NHL this season and are allowing the league's fewest goals against per 60 minutes at even strength.
It shouldn't come as any surprise that star winger Alex Ovechkin is leading the Capitals in scoring, but his production is coming largely at 5-on-5, which it hasn't always in the past. He is fifth in the NHL in even-strength scoring rate at 2.68 points per 60 minutes (among skaters with more than 500 minutes), whereas last season Ovie was 42nd. Increased 5-on-5 scoring from the top line bodes well for the Caps, not just in the regular season, but especially in the playoffs. Teams that rely on special teams rarely see Stanley Cup runs.
Even if Washington was mediocre in other areas instead of top notch, goaltending would make them a contender. Netminder Braden Holtby is having a career-best season with a .929 save percentage in all situations.
The case against the Capitals
As far as team statistics go, there isn't a good case against the Caps for the division or a run at the Cup. They are the best in the Metro in four of the five categories and better than the average Cup winner over the last five years. However, if there is a concern, it's the Capitals' defensive corps. While Dmitry Orlov, John Carlson and Matt Niskanen are strong puck-moving defensemen, Washington does not have a defenseman who is playing at Norris Trophy level as Pittsburgh had with Kris Letang, Chicago with Duncan Keith, Los Angeles with Drew Doughty and Boston with Zdeno Chara.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The case for the Penguins
There has been no Stanley cup hangover for the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Pens lead the league in 5-on-5 Goals For Per 60 minutes. Sidney Crosby has followed up his Conn Smythe Trophy performance in the Cup finals by leading the NHL in goals scored. Forwards Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel aren't far behind Sid, ranking second and 11th in the NHL in points.
While the Penguins have been without Letang, defenseman Justin Schultz has emerged from a third-pair defender, becoming one of the top blueline scorers with 33 points in 46 games. Pittsburgh's deep scoring attack makes for a nightmarish matchup for even the best defensive teams in the East.
The case against the Penguins
If there is anything that could undo another deep run in the playoffs, it's the health of Letang. He is currently out of the lineup with a knee injury and has missed at least 10 games in every season since 2010-11. When Letang is in the lineup, he is a dynamic puck mover and point producer and can handle the East's best lines defensively. If Letang misses time in the playoffs, Pittsburgh could struggle.
The Penguins have a below-Cup-level save percentage, but that largely has been due to Marc-Andre Fleury's struggles. Playoff starter Matt Murray has followed up his Cup victory with a solid .923 all-situation save percentage.
Columbus Blue Jackets
The case for the Blue Jackets
Head coach John Tortorella was once known for his focus on defense as a coach, but this year he is leading a top-notch scoring attack in Columbus. The Blue Jackets have the best power play in the NHL and it doesn't look like a slump is coming any time soon. Columbus' deep forward group is helped significantly by two of the NHL's best young defensemen in Seth Jones and Zach Werenski. Make no mistake, Torts' crew can still play defense. They have one of the NHL's best two-way wingers in the game in Brandon Saad, who leads the team with an outstanding 55.0 Corsi For Percentage.
The emergence of Columbus as a legitimate contender hasn't just been driven by scoring. Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has managed a .932 save percentage this season, returning to Vezina Trophy form.
The case against the Blue Jackets
If you go back through Stanley Cup winners of the past, it's hard to find an example of a team that won without an All-Star-level top center. The past five have been Crosby, Jonathan Toews, Anze Kopitar and Patrice Bergeron. It is also still yet to be seen if inexperienced defenders Jones and Werenski will be up to the task of facing those top centers.
New York Rangers
The case for the Rangers
One of these things is not like the others. The Rangers are below the Cup average in every category except penalty kill. However, their numbers have been skewed by a tough January for goalie Henrik Lundqvist. The Blue Shirts are still fourth in the league in Goals For Per 60 Minutes. In the offseason, they added scoring depth to create a four-line attack and have reaped the rewards with 16 even-strength goals from Michael Grabner. Scorer Rick Nash has bounced back offensively with a solid 2.19 points per 60 minutes and Chris Kreider is playing the best hockey of his career, leading the team in scoring rate and Corsi For Percentage.
The case against the Rangers
Notice that only one team has made the Cup finals with a sub-50 Corsi For Percentage. We saw the Rangers struggle mightily against the Penguins in the playoffs last year in part because they were not controlling play as much as their competitors. New York's defense is improved, but still isn't top end past Ryan McDonagh, and if Lundqvist is anything short of brilliant, the Rangers don't have much of a chance at a trip deep into the playoffs.