Not every compelling race has to include the best competitors. That is the case with the NHL's Atlantic Division this season.
Of the eight teams, only the Montreal Canadiens have a positive goal differential, and none of them have won more than half of their past 10 games. But the difference between second place and last is only eight points in the standings, which not only sets up for some excitement down the stretch, it also gives each team hope for a postseason berth.
One key injury or trade could swing the division, but if the teams remain mostly as they are in late December, how will it all play out? Let's have a look at which direction the stats are pointing us and project the order of finish for all eight teams:
Montreal Canadiens
Current place: 1
Projected finish: 1
Key stat: Carey Price's .936 save percentage
If it were any other goaltender, we might guess that a save percentage above .930 would be guaranteed to slip, but in the case of Carey Price, he has posted a .931 overall save percentage in his past 160 games dating back to 2013-14. It's not a fluke: He's simply the best goalie in the NHL. The Habs are also controlling the shot counter, which hasn't always been the case during Price's career. Montreal ranks eighth in the NHL in 5-on-5 Corsi for percentage, and second in even-strength goals per 60 minutes. Sustaining their offensive prowess is much more likely during the final few months this season than it was last season due to the addition of Alexander Radulov, who has 23 points in 29 games. However, the never-ending drama of the Habs has resulted in recent rumors about trading Max Pacioretty and in Price angrily storming off the ice after being pulled. Can they handle the pressure of high expectations?
Boston Bruins
Current place: 3
Projected finish: 2
Key stat: No. 1 in the NHL with a 54.4 Corsi for percentage
Claude Julien is making a bid for the Jack Adams award. The Bruins missed the playoffs last season, causing many to wonder if their window to compete for a Stanley Cup was over. In third place currently, it looks from the standings that they aren't much better, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. Boston is out-shooting teams by a wider margin than anyone else in the NHL, and goalie Tuukka Rask has bounced back from a down 2015-16, currently posting a .932 save percentage. While scoring and defensive depth continue to be concerns, the Bruins have maintained a decent record without Patrice Bergeron or David Krejci producing at their usual pace. If they get back on track, the Bruins will be dangerous.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Current place: 4
Projected finish: 3
Key stat: 78.2 penalty kill percentage
Losing superstar Steven Stamkos was a serious blow to Tampa Bay's chances of winning the Atlantic Division, but their current standing is partly product of a struggling penalty kill. The Lightning are the sixth-worst penalty-killing team in the NHL and have given up the third most goals against at 4-on-5. The shorthanded struggles are seriously dragging down goalie Ben Bishop's numbers. He currently has an awful .906 save percentage, but Bishop's 5-on-5 save percentage is only down .004 from his career mark. With a man in the box, Bishop's save percentage is .050 behind his career average. It is very likely Tampa Bay's netminder performs better on the penalty kill and gets the team back on track. The Lightning should still be concerned about their 5-on-5 play, as they are a shade below 50 percent in even-strength Corsi for percentage. But they are still second in the Atlantic in goals scored and have a good enough offensive attack to nab one of the guaranteed playoff spots.
Florida Panthers
Current place: 5
Projected finish: 4
Key stat: 28th in 5-on-5 goals per 60
The Panthers are giving the Canadiens a run for most dramatic team of the first half, firing their coach and seeing multiple, conflicting reports about the structure of their front office come to light. They wouldn't be in the news cycle as often if their start to the season had lived up to expectations. An injury to Jonathan Huberdeau forced the breakup of one of the league's best lines last season, but after spending big money on defensemen Jason Demers and Keith Yandle, the Panthers expected their offensive attack -- and 24th-ranked power play -- to be much more dangerous. With the league's fourth-best shot attempt differential, there are some signs that indicate Florida has been a little unlucky thus far.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Current place: 8
Projected finish: 5
Key stat: 29th in goals against per 60 at 5-on-5
If you like exciting hockey games, the 2016-17 Toronto Maple Leafs are for you. They allow the second-most goals against per 60 minutes but also score the fourth-most. Mike Babcock's young team has been on the right side of the shot attempt counter with a 51.2 Corsi for percentage and has three players under 21 years old who have 20 points or more. The Leafs' defense and goaltending may have put them in too much of a hole to recover and reach the postseason, though starting netminder Frederik Andersen has worked his way back from a tough start to generate a solid .919 save percentage for the season overall.
Buffalo Sabres
Current place: 7
Projected finish: 6
Key stat: Eight points in nine games for Jack Eichel
An injury to Jack Eichel before the season opener caused the Sabres to struggle offensively. Before Eichel returned, the Sabres averaged 1.9 goals per game. Since the former No. 2 overall pick returned, Buffalo has 3.0 goals per game. Of course, the dynamic 20-year-old does not solve all of the Sabres' issues. They have only one player with more than 10 even-strength points (Brian Gionta) and have relied far too much on goaltender Anders Nilsson, who has a career .906 save percentage but has managed a .933 percentage in 10 games so far this season. He can't sustain that mark. Buffalo can make a climb in the division with Eichel back, but making a run at the playoffs still seems like a long shot.
Ottawa Senators
Current place: 2
Projected finish: 7
Key stat: 24th in 5-on-5 goals for percentage
The Senators are the smoke-and-mirrors team of 2016-17. The Sens have been crushed at even strength with a minus-7 goal differential and 47.7 Corsi for percentage, yet they sit in second place. Ottawa isn't even being held up by great goaltending, as they are 13th in even-strength save percentage. Likewise, their power play (18th) and penalty kill (14th) have been mediocre. Basically, there is nothing statistically that indicates the Senators will remain toward the top of the Atlantic. In terms of the roster, the top-six forwards are decent, but Ottawa's depth is poor and Dion Phaneuf has given them very little in terms of defensive improvement.
Detroit Red Wings
Current place: 6
Projected finish: 8
Key stat: 30th in Corsi for per 60
This is finally the year that the Red Wings' playoff streak ends. Without any serious offensive attack, the Wings' only chance at being competitive is if their goaltending and special teams are otherworldly. With the 11th best even-strength save percentage, 29th power play and 12th penalty kill, it's hard to see that being the case. It has been a long time since Detroit was in a position to sell off parts at the trade deadline, but the Red Wings should consider looking at that path this season.