Thanks to the return of the world's greatest goalie, the Montreal Canadiens are among last season's nonplayoff teams that could take the NHL by storm this season. When setting the new season's expectations, teams who were previously stung by injuries or bad luck are often underrated, as are the potential impacts of hot goalies, rookies and new coaches.
In fairness, it is incredibly difficult to predict the NHL standings, and which teams will be playoff-bound on April 9, 2017. In fact, a projection based purely on ranking teams by their previous season goal differentials has been shown to be just as accurate as the informed opinions of expert pundits.
Making these predictions more difficult are the handful of teams that dramatically defy expectations every season, like last season's Arizona Coyotes, Washington Capitals, Dallas Stars and Carolina Hurricanes, who improved by between 15 and 22 points each.
Drawing on the experience of these four examples, and many more since 2005-06, the following "surprise team index" was crafted to provide at least some indication of which today's teams possess the factors that have led to unexpectedly strong seasons in the past; put another way, stash these team names away as your potential dark-horse contenders.
The surprise team index
It might not be completely scientific, but assigning zero, five, or 10 points to each team for each of the 10 categories results in a score between 0 and 100 that will provide a rough idea of which teams possess most of the historical indications of an unexpectedly strong season.
Let's examine the six teams to score 40 or greater:
Montreal Canadiens, 60 points
Last season, Montreal got off to an outstanding start, until Carey Price was put on injured reserve, triggering a tailspin from which the Canadiens could not escape.
On Dec. 1, one week after Price's final game of the season, the Canadiens led the NHL with a 19-4-3 record. From that point forward, they posted the league's worst record, 19-34-3.
In the absence of Price and several other top players who lost significant time because of injuries, the Canadiens were plagued by even more bad luck and poor performance. Their shooting and save percentages collapsed, their winning percentage in one-goal games fell from league average to 25th, and they took only 14 games to overtime and/or the shootout last season, ahead of only the Colorado Avalanche, with 10.
Fresh off an amazing performance at the World Cup of Hockey, can Price's return instantly put the Canadiens back on track? Potentially fueling that possibility even further, GM Marc Bergevin spent the summer shaking things up by trading 2013 Norris Trophy winner P.K. Subban to the Nashville Predators for Shea Weber, and signing KHL superstar Alex Radulov. Something big is bound to happen in Montreal this season -- one way or the other.
Toronto Maple Leafs, 60 points
The Maple Leafs improved by only one point in the standings last season, but they were actually a far better team than they were in 2014-15, and are poised for a great leap forward.
Everything that could possibly go wrong for Toronto last season, did go wrong. The Maple Leafs had a league-worst 3-16 record in one-goal regulation time games, and no team was struck by injuries to a greater extent among forwards, including issues for Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk and Joffrey Lupul.
Toronto was stung by bad puck luck, too. The Leafs actually outshot their opponents but were outscored by 48 goals because of a league-low 7.6 percent shooting percentage, while opponents scored on 9.1 percent of their shots on goal, the fifth-highest mark.
For 2016-17, Toronto has overhauled its goaltending, replacing the tandem of Jonathan Bernier and James Reimer with Frederik Andersen and Jhonas Enroth, and has introduced more rookies into its lineup than any other team, including Mitchell Marner, William Nylander, Nikita Soshnikov Nikita Zaitsev and No. 1 overall draft pick Auston Matthews.
Toronto's 50-year Stanley Cup drought might not be threatened next spring, but the three-year playoff absence very well could be.
Edmonton Oilers, 55 points
In 2006-07, the Pittsburgh Penguins vaulted up the standings by 47 points in Sidney Crosby's sophomore season. It might not be part of the surprise team index, but don't overlook the impact of a potential franchise player like Connor McDavid.
Otherwise, Edmonton's story is similar to Toronto's. They were tied with the Leafs with a 3-16 record in one-goal games decided in regulation, were stung by injuries to players such as McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Oscar Klefbom, and were outscored by 42 goals despite being outshot by less than two shots per game.
Like the Leafs, the Oilers shook up the roster this summer, signing Milan Lucic and acquiring Adam Larsson from the New Jersey Devils in exchange for the team's scoring leader in three of the past four seasons, Taylor Hall. If the Oilers don't finally take off this season, it's tough to fathom what else they will have to try next.
Buffalo Sabres, 45 points
One of the most underreported stories of the 2015-16 season was Buffalo's incredible improvement by 27 points last season, and a goal differential that improved from minus-113 in 2014-15 to just minus-21 in 2015-16.
Beyond signing free agent Kyle Okposo, Buffalo earned a place near the top of the surprise team index not on any particularly decisive point, but by receiving a check in eight of the 10 categories. Like last season, they still have a solid new coaching staff, developing young players like Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart, and a breakout is certainly possible if a healthy Robin Lehner gets hot in the crease.
Minnesota Wild, 40 points
Among last season's playoff teams, Minnesota is one of the two teams to watch for a dramatic surge.
Here, the key factor is the new coaching staff. Bruce Boudreau has a proven track record of boosting teams in the standings, and it could be magnified by assistant John Anderson, one of the most accomplished AHL coaches in modern history.
This isn't intended as a knock on last season's coaches, Mike Yeo and John Torchetti, who are now assistants in St. Louis and Detroit respectively, but even a slight upgrade in coaching could have made a huge difference in 2015-16. They ranked seventh with a .568 record in games decided by at least two goals, right behind the Stanley Cup finalists Pittsburgh (.600) and San Jose (.569), but were No. 22 with a .433 record in one-goal regulation-time games, between Winnipeg (.438), and Buffalo (.417). They also had the league's worst record in overtime and the shootout at 4-11.
Rather than scrape into the postseason as a wild card due to the weakness of the Pacific Division, the Boudreau-coached Wild could be a force to be reckoned with near the top of the Central this season.
Anaheim Ducks, 40 points
For years, the Anaheim Ducks have been a team that has experienced wild swings in luck, and the pendulum swung from one extreme to the other in 2015-16.
Due to incredibly poor shooting percentages, the Ducks began the season 1-7-2, and were 17-17-7 at the season's halfway mark. Past that point, they led the league with a record of 29-8-4, and their goal differential improved from minus-30 to plus-47. In the end, their .651 record in games decided by more than one goal was second only to the mighty Washington Capitals, at .707.
If new coach Randy Carlyle can find a way to inspire that peak performance throughout the entire season, and if the new goaltending tandem of John Gibson and Jonathan Bernier catches fire, then the Ducks could mark the 10th anniversary of their Stanley Cup victory with another.
Honorable mentions (all with 35 points): Arizona Coyotes, Calgary Flames, Columbus Blue Jackets.