The following is my final mock draft for the 2015 NHL entry draft. This differs from my personal evaluation of the prospects or who I would pick if I were the teams.
Rather, the selections are based on a combination of factors, all which will be reflected in the player profiles:
• Rumors I've heard from throughout my travels and conversations this season
• The teams' selection histories and preferences
• Where I believe the NHL scouting industry has pegged particular prospects
The NHL draft is the hardest to project of the four major sports. Major League Baseball requires a player-signing hurdle that lends to info leaks, while the NBA and NFL drafts have major positional need factors. The NHL has neither of those, which lends itself to extreme secrecy among NHL teams. Still, I am able to extract enough information to make reasonable projections as to what will happen.
Thanks for reading along all season, and enjoy the 2015 NHL draft.
1. Edmonton Oilers
Connor McDavid, C, Erie (OHL)
Age: 18 | GP: 42 | G: 40 | A: 69 (2014-15)
If McDavid is not the first selection for this team, the collective rage of Oilers fans will swallow the city of Edmonton whole into a new dimension. McDavid is the best prospect since Sidney Crosby, in the same tier of prospects as Sid, John Tavares and Eric Lindros. His skating, skill, hockey sense and determination are all world-class.
2. Buffalo Sabres
Jack Eichel, C, Boston University (Hockey East)
Age: 18 | GP: 32 | G: 18 | A: 37
See No. 1 in regard to fans, but replace Oilers with Sabres and Edmonton with Buffalo. Eichel's season at BU was one for the record books, with one of the best freshmen campaigns of all time. He has elite skill, elite hockey IQ, skates very well and also was the first man over the boards to kill a penalty.
3. Arizona Coyotes
Dylan Strome, C, Erie (OHL)
Age: 18 | GP: 62 | G: 39 | A: 77
I'd say this one is 65/35 between Dylan Strome and Noah Hanifin. Arizona has been fielding offers for the third pick, taking the placeholder as the shoot-for-the-stars trade-up pick, as the top two are practically untouchable.
4. Toronto Maple Leafs
Mitch Marner, C, London (OHL)
Age: 17 | GP: 59 | G: 44 | A: 79
Various sources throughout the year have made me bounce between Marner and Strome at this slot. In January I projected Marner here, in March it was Strome. If Strome goes to the Coyotes at No. 3 though, I believe this pick will be Marner.
5. Carolina Hurricanes
Noah Hanifin, D, Boston College (Hockey East)
Age: 18 | GP: 33 | G: 4 | A: 17
Carolina is in the "easy" spot in the draft, because Carolina will very likely pick whichever of these top five players has not been picked yet. Hanifin is a dominant two-way defenseman. His skating is fantastic, he moves the puck well, and has the hockey IQ, mobility and size to be pretty effective in making defensive stops.
6. New Jersey Devils
Pavel Zacha, C, Sarnia (OHL)
Age: 17 | GP: 34 | G: 16 | A: 16
For as long as one can remember, the Devils have been nearly impossible to project. For many years, members of the team's staff wouldn't know which prospect would be selected until the day of the draft, if not hours before. My understanding is they've realistically considered about 10-12 names at the six slot. Zacha has been the most common name mentioned by NHL people as a player who could usurp the current top-five tier.
7. Philadelphia Flyers
Ivan Provorov, D, Brandon (WHL)
Age: 18 | GP: 55 | G: 14 | A: 43
The rumor I've been hearing for a few weeks has been Provorov to the Flyers if he's available at No. 7, which would be interesting given the strong group of defensive prospects the Flyers already have. Otherwise, I think they'll choose between Zacha, Mathew Barzal or Lawson Crouse.
8. Columbus Blue Jackets
Zach Werenski, D, University of Michigan (Big Ten)
Age: 17 | GP: 30 | G: 8 | A: 15
It's moderately well-known now that the Blue Jackets, who have an elite group of young forwards in their system, are trying hard to add blueliners to the organization. If Provorov got to this slot, I'd imagine he could very well be the pick ahead of Werenski.
9. San Jose Sharks
Mathew Barzal, C, Seattle (WHL)
Age: 17 | GP: 38 | G: 12 | A: 36
Barzal fits into the mold of recent high Sharks picks: high skill, high IQ. Scouts across the industry have been buzzing about Barzal since his dominant under-18 performance, and this seems like the lowest he could go on draft day. However, if Crouse goes at six, I could very well see this pick being Zacha.
10. Colorado Avalanche
Lawson Crouse, LW, Kingston (OHL)
Age: 17 | GP: 50 | G: 25 | A: 17
I believe Colorado will take whomever among Barzal, Crouse or Zacha is remaining. Provorov or Werenski could be in the discussion here, but I don't see either of them falling to 10.
11. Florida Panthers
Mikko Rantanen, RW, TPS (Liiga)
Age: 18 | GP: 54 | G: 7 | A: 17
Rantanen is a fit for the Panthers on organizational need (wingers) and is the best player available according to the NHL industry. I've heard him pegged by some scouts as going anywhere between Nos. 6 and 15. If Crouse slips a little, I have to imagine Florida is his floor.
12. Dallas Stars
Travis Konecny, C, Ottawa (OHL)
Age: 18 | GP: 60 | G: 29 | A: 39
The new Dallas regime tends to target high skill/upside kind of players, which is why I could see them target a player like Konency, with Timo Meier or Evgeni Svechnikov as other potential options here. Some might point to Dallas being strong at center in the organization, but Konency has shown recently that he can play the wing well.
13. Los Angeles Kings
Kyle Connor, LW, Youngstown (USHL)
Age: 18 | GP: 45 | G: 25 | A: 36
The Kings like their prospects to play a tough two-way game, and they've had success with that at the NHL level. Connor or Meier are the projected options at this slot, with Connor being a little bit more of a high-upside type of prospect.
14. Boston Bruins
Timo Meier, RW, Halifax (QMJHL)
Age: 18 | GP: 56 | G: 42 | A: 44
Based on my discussions, the scouting industry views a bit of a drop-off after these 13 players, so for Boston it's all about plugging in the name that is left from the 13 mentioned above. Whether it's Meier, Rantanen or Connor, my bet is the Bruins walk away on Day 1 with a scoring winger.
15. Calgary Flames
Thomas Chabot, D, Saint John (QMJHL)
Age: 18 | GP: 61 | G: 10 | A: 25
Calgary's organizational weakness is at defense in terms of U23 players, and whether it's Chabot, Jakub Zboril, Oliver Kylington or Jeremy Roy, I believe a blueliner will be going at this spot.
16. Edmonton Oilers
Colin White, C, USA under-18 (USHL)
Age: 18 | GP: 39 | G: 14 | A: 23
White was a projected top-15 pick earlier in the season, if not a top 10. He slid midyear due to ailments, but with a strong finish to the season, the two-way center has his name buzzing again. Even with the drafting of McDavid, the Oilers' forward depth -- particularly at center -- needs a boost.
17. Winnipeg Jets
Nick Merkley, C, Kelowna (WHL)
Age: 17 | GP: 66 | G: 18 | A: 67
Merkley fits into the mold of what Winnipeg has been drafting lately, which is a high-skill player with great hockey sense. He could play either center or right wing well, depending on how the Jets' depth chart plays out over the next few years.
18. Ottawa Senators
Jakub Zboril, D, Saint John (QMJHL)
Age: 18 | GP: 39 | G: 9 | A: 17
If the Senators' system could speak, it would be yelling "PLEASE PICK A DEFENSEMAN!" I've heard different teams say different things about Zboril; some lean top 15, some more top 30-35. His strong U18 tournament affirmed his first-round projection, in my opinion.
19. Detroit Red Wings
Yevgeni Svechnikov, LW, Cape Breton (QMJHL)
Age: 18 | GP: 50 | G: 27 | A: 39
As there are with most cases this late in the first round, there are a number of players I can see going here. Svechnikov, Oliver Kylington or Merkley, if he falls to 19, are potential options. It's hard for me to see Svechnikov getting further than 20.
20. Minnesota Wild
Joel Eriksson Ek, C, Farjestad (SHL)
Age: 18 | GP: 34 | G: 4 | A: 2
The Wild added Alex Tuch last year in the first round, complementing their highly-skilled, yet small young forward group with a big winger. I think one could argue their system needs a two-way center or a defenseman just as much right now, so I could see this selection being defenders like Oliver Kylington or Jeremy Roy, too.
21. Buffalo Sabres
Paul Bittner, LW, Portland (WHL)
Age: 18 | GP: 58 | G: 32 | A: 31
There are a range of views on Bittner within the industry. Some see him as a clear top-15 guy, while others more toward the 30-spot. Buffalo will be taking the best player available here. Bittner is highly-regarded, and could be the best player available at 21.
22. Washington Capitals
Oliver Kylington, D, Farjestad (SHL)
Age: 17 | GP: 17 | G: 4 | A: 3
Kylington is an exact fit as the kind of player the Capitals have targeted in the first round: highly-skilled players with upside, even if they carry some warts. Kylington would also fill a much-needed organizational need for prospects at defense. The Caps haven't taken a defenseman in the first round in nearly 10 years.
23. Vancouver Canucks
Jeremy Roy, D, Sherbrooke (QMJHL)
Age: 17 | GP: 46 | G: 5 | A: 38
Whether it's Roy, Brandon Carlo or Jonas Siegenthaler, I suspect the Canucks are looking for a defenseman, but Roy fits more toward what they've been targeting, which is a real puck-mover. Take a look at the Canucks' prospect pipeline predraft -- if they churn out even one regular NHLer from their group of defensemen, that's a win.
24. Toronto Maple Leafs
Denis Guryanov, RW, Togliatti (MHL)
Age: 18 | GP: 23 | G: 15 | A: 10
Everyone is expecting the Leafs to take a swing-for-the-fences type of prospect with this second first-round pick. I could see Daniel Sprong as a candidate here, but overall I expect the Leafs to be aggressive with a Russian like Guryanov.
25. Winnipeg Jets
Brock Boeser, RW, Waterloo (USHL)
Age: 18 | GP: 46 | G: 28 | A: 23
Boeser is a guy I know several teams have firmly in their top 20, so it is very possible he never gets close to 25. He would be a complementary prospect to what the Jets have drafted, as he's skilled, but big, strong and tough to knock off the puck. If he's gone I could see Jake DeBrusk or Sprong as candidates here.
26. Montreal Canadiens
Jake DeBrusk, LW, Swift Current (WHL)
Age: 18 | GP: 72 | G: 42 | A: 39
DeBrusk really impressed this season and ticked his way up boards as the season went along. He checks off boxes the Habs target in terms of having skill, hockey IQ and character. I could see Jansen Harkins as an option here too if the organization prefers to add to their center depth.
27. Anaheim Ducks
Erik Cernak, D, HC Kosice (Slovakia)
Age: 17 | GP: 43 | G: 5 | A: 8
Anaheim's pick is really hard to peg in this slot. The kind of prospects they typically target in terms of skill and hockey sense are few and far between around this range, as I expect several two-way centers, defensemen and goalies to go around the 25-45 range. Cernak is a guy who has shown well internationally and in professional games. He's a big, mobile, skilled defenseman.
28. Tampa Bay Lightning
Daniel Sprong, RW, Charlottetown (QMJHL)
Age: 17 | GP: 63 | G: 35 | A: 43
This is a typical Tampa Bay pick under Yzerman, being a high-upside player who has been dogged by the industry for one reason or another. That high-risk approach, though, hasn't worked out on a few occasions. But in some cases it has paid dividends.
29. Philadelphia Flyers
Jansen Harkins, C, Prince George (WHL)
Age: 17 | GP: 64 | G: 20 | A: 58
I have to think the Flyers will look to add to their forwards at this pick, where they are light in prospect depth, especially if they end up with Provorov or another defenseman at No. 7.
30. Arizona Coyotes
Brandon Carlo, D, Tri-City (WHL)
Age: 18 | GP: 57 | G: 3 | A: 20
All the predraft chatter I've heard is about Arizona adding forwards and skill, but the organization has done a lot of that over the past few drafts and by acquiring Anthony Duclair via trade. The team still highly values defense, and this would be the highest they've picked a defenseman in several years, assuming Hanifin does not go at No. 3, which is a real possibility.