The ripple effects of the 2024 NFL offseason are just beginning.
With 25% of the league's head-coaching jobs changing hands -- and only three of the eight vacant positions filled as of Wednesday morning -- the crystal ball of big offseason questions remains extremely foggy. To use yet another metaphor, the league's dominoes could still topple in any number of ways.
Where Bill Belichick, Jim Harbaugh and the other hot candidates land will have a major impact on the offseason quarterback carousel, for starters. The market for free agent quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield, and the presumably exiled Russell Wilson, could be closely tied to which coaches are hired by which teams.
But all of the unknown hasn't stopped the chatter in league circles. The NFL team executives, scouts and personnel figures ESPN spoke to in recent days have thoughts about the biggest storylines, from quarterbacks and coaches changing addresses to which teams could rise and fall once the dust settles from the offseason.
We tackled eight of the biggest storylines and assessed some of the early buzz:
Russell Wilson will end up with the Raiders
After coach Sean Payton's Week 17 benching of Wilson and because of the constraints of the quarterback's contract, Wilson will most likely cook up deep balls for the third team of his NFL career. As we outlined previously, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh and Minnesota are among teams on the radar. But one NFC executive sees another outlet.
"[The Raiders] need a vet, and they are one of Wilson's original teams he wanted to go to," said the exec, referring to Wilson's wish list in 2021. "He'd stay in the [AFC West], West Coast, and [Wilson's wife] Ciara can do a [Las Vegas] residency [as a live performer]."
In fact, the Raiders are the only team from that wish list that has a quarterback need. Rookie Aidan O'Connell performed admirably, but coach Antonio Pierce will be in win-now mode after earning the job on the basis of a 5-4 interim stint.
The 49ers' roster will take a (slight) step back
No NFL team has more star power than the 49ers, who have built a perennial winner under head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch.
But as multiple league execs have pointed out, the organization has experienced some brainpower attrition. Personnel execs have left for general manager jobs in back-to-back-to-back years -- Kwesi Adofo-Mensah (Vikings, 2021), Ran Carthon (Titans, 2022) and Adam Peters (Commanders, 2023). Executive Ethan Waugh also left in 2022 to become the Jaguars' assistant general manager.
"That's a lot for Lynch to overcome," an NFC executive said. "They could get exposed in free agency and the draft."
The Packers will win Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans on Feb. 9, 2025
Yes, people are going there. Jordan Love proved a legitimate franchise quarterback, and the skill positions are loaded with first- and second-year players.
[Green Bay has] a young nucleus to build from -- and the offensive line was playing really well," a veteran AFC scout said. "The defense was up and down but finished the year much better. They've always had talent on that side of the ball. Can they be consistent?"
The Cardinals will make a playoff run
Arizona is trending up despite its 4-13 clip in 2023. As one NFL offensive coach said, "That's the best four-win team I've seen in a while. They make you earn everything."
GM Monti Ossenfort has six picks in the first three rounds of the draft to improve the roster.
"[Head coach Jonathan Gannon] seems legit, and they can kill it in the draft," an AFC scout said. "If they add some vet pieces in free agency, they can surprise some people. Kyler Murray will be better with a full year coming off the ACL [tear]."
C.J. Stroud will finish top three in MVP voting
Stroud's rookie year for the ages caught everyone's attention. The Texans QB threw for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns and 5 interceptions despite missing two games and dealing with several injuries at wide receiver and on the offensive line, earning him much respect in league circles.
"Poise is so underrated in our league, especially at quarterback, and he clearly has it," an NFC executive said. "Throws the ball very well at all levels. Arrow definitely pointing out. And he's got talent around him."
Baker Mayfield will re-sign with the Bucs
Mayfield appeared destined for a career as a bridge QB/journeyman before rewriting the script in Tampa Bay. Not only did Mayfield guide the Bucs to the playoffs, but he threw for 686 yards in two playoff games, the league high through the divisional round.
Teams are only as good as their options at any given position, and Mayfield looks like Tampa's best.
"I'm not sure it makes sense to go after someone else like Russell Wilson or Justin Fields when I'm not sure that's a substantial upgrade," an NFC personnel evaluator said. "Mayfield isn't perfect, but you can win games with him. He's streaky, but when he gets hot, he can produce like a top-10 guy."
Chase Young will reunite with Montez Sweat in Chicago
Washington traded its star defensive line bookends at the 2023 trade deadline, with Sweat then thriving as the Chicago Bears' lead rusher and Young now competing for a Super Bowl with the San Francisco 49ers.
Chicago, in its efforts to bolster its pass rush, evaluated both Young and Sweat in the months leading up to the deadline. Sweat landed a four-year, $98 million extension with the Bears, who could spend more money in free agency to sign a pass-rusher such as Young.
Kirk Cousins and Bill Belichick will be Falcons ... and win the NFC South
The feeling out of New England was that Belichick planned to target an established veteran quarterback for the Patriots in 2024. If he gets the Atlanta job, as some expect, he can follow a similar blueprint.
Cousins might very well re-sign with Minnesota, but if not, the Falcons offer several high-end skill players on offense and an improving defense -- they're the proverbial quarterback away. "[Belichick] can help a talented yet underachieving team, and Atlanta is that," an AFC executive said. "Cousins would be a great fit there."