We have just about made it to the end. Twenty weeks of overreactions have led us to the NFL playoffs' conference championships, where our Super Bowl LVIII participants will be determined.
At this point in the overreactions season, we start to feel a little melancholy. There really isn't much overreacting left. At this point, drawing sweeping conclusions about the teams feels redundant. The game results are determining what these teams truly are and can be -- they don't need our help anymore. But it has been a fun weekly exercise, so of course we'll keep it going as long as we can. There are suddenly only three games left in the NFL season. It is not an overreaction to say we will miss it.
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A potential key loss for the 49ers?
Macdonald set for a head coach job?
Lions built to beat San Francisco?
Love set for multiple Super Bowls?
Stroud to win MVP next season?
Bills still can't get over playoff hump?
The 49ers are in trouble next week if Deebo Samuel can't play
San Francisco's do-it-all wideout left Saturday night's game against Green Bay in the first quarter with a shoulder injury and spent the second half on the sideline in street clothes. The Niners were able to eke out a comeback victory over the Packers without him, but generally when they've played without him this season, it hasn't gone well. The Niners' three-game October losing streak, sandwiched between winning streaks of five and six games, coincided with a three-game injury absence for Samuel (not to mention left tackle Trent Williams).
This team is obviously loaded with offensive playmakers and certainly can win without Samuel. But the 49ers are not the same without him -- according to ESPN Stats & Information, they averaged 7.1 yards per play with Samuel on the field during the regular season, but 5.7 without him. And the NFC Championship Game is no time to be playing without your most valuable players.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
This isn't as simple as just being down a starting wide receiver. Samuel is more than that to the Niners. Williams told me earlier this season that the team views Samuel and running back Christian McCaffrey as "Swiss Army knives" and that the offense operates differently when both of them are in the lineup because the 49ers treat them as interchangeable. They can line them both up in the backfield. They can line them both up at wide receiver. They can put either of them just about anywhere in the formation, and their ability to do any number of things from any number of spots increases the amount and caliber of plays that coach Kyle Shanahan can call.
Again, you could do worse than having McCaffrey and George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk as your skill position group. To some extent, these are champagne problems. But it's a fact that things change for the Niners without Samuel -- who had seven receiving TDs and five rushing TDs this season -- in the lineup, and it would be tougher for them to win without him.
Mike Macdonald will definitely get one of the open head coach jobs
The Baltimore defensive coordinator might be having the best season of any playcaller in the league on either side of the ball. The Ravens held the Texans without an offensive touchdown in Saturday's wild-card win -- the second time this season they've done that to Houston alone. The Texans didn't even run a play inside the Ravens' 25-yard line. Macdonald's group has also shut down the 49ers, Dolphins, Lions, Seahawks and Jaguars -- just to name a few -- en route to the AFC Championship Game.
Macdonald has drawn interest so far from the Falcons, Panthers, Chargers, Titans and Commanders, and all of those jobs are still open as of Sunday.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Macdonald is just 36 years old, but that number isn't the impediment to a head-coaching hire that it used to be. He has spent nine of the past 10 years on John Harbaugh's staff in Baltimore, and the one year he wasn't in Baltimore, he was Jim Harbaugh's defensive coordinator at Michigan. That 2021 season was a pivotal one for the Wolverines, and the changes Macdonald implemented while there helped lay the groundwork for Michigan's national championship performance this season.
Macdonald has had a similar impact in Baltimore since returning as coordinator in 2022. The Ravens allowed a league-low 16.5 points per game this season, and their 4.6 yards allowed per play tied for the lowest. Not only is Macdonald an outstanding playcaller and game-planner whose brain teams looking for a coach should want to pick; he has also shown an ability to get players to buy into his schemes. It wouldn't surprise anybody to see a team take a shot on him as an up-and-coming leader in this cycle.
The Lions are built to beat the 49ers in a playoff game
Detroit will take its act on the road to Santa Clara, California, next weekend and try to defeat the top-seeded Niners to advance to the Super Bowl. Neither one of its playoff wins so far has come easily, but this is a team that sticks to its very specific, very physical formula and is willing to wait for it to work.
The Lions have an outstanding offensive line and a run game that can help them control the game. When I spoke with Lions linebacker Alex Anzalone a few weeks back, he told me, "Not everybody likes to play our type of game. We embrace it. I mean, it's everybody. Like, our receivers block better than anybody else's receivers. You can just see guys are bought into this style of play."
The Lions are physical enough that the 49ers aren't going to be able to push them around. And after seeing the Packers rush for 136 yards on 28 carries against the San Francisco defense Saturday night, it's easy to imagine the Lions attacking the Niners that same way. Detroit just had 114 rushing yards against the Buccaneers on Sunday.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
I stand by what I said earlier about the Niners and how much tougher it will be for them if Samuel can't play. But it is a home game for the Niners, the weather forecast is much more encouraging for next week than it was this week and that Lions secondary is a significant weakness that Brock Purdy should be able to take advantage of -- if his line can keep him protected.
Detroit can absolutely win this game, but the 49ers have a number of different ways they can beat you. To say the Lions are set up to be a bad matchup for them is to underrate San Francisco's versatility. The Niners are -- and should be -- the favorites to win the NFC Championship Game.
Jordan Love will win more Super Bowls as a Packer than Aaron Rodgers did
Love's brilliant season ended with an interception that sealed Saturday night's playoff game for the 49ers, but that shouldn't take away from everything he did to get the Packers there. In the first season after the team traded Rodgers, Love validated the Packers' decision to move on from a future Hall of Famer to the controversial 2020 first-round pick. Sure, Love had his ups and downs this season, but he and his extremely young corps of pass-catchers jelled as the season went along, and the Green Bay offense was playing as well as any in the playoff field.
Rodgers won one Super Bowl with the Packers, so Love would need to win only two to make this one come true.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Winning the Super Bowl is hard! Winning it twice is even harder!! I'm not going to put those kinds of expectations on Love; I don't think it's fair.
The popular belief is that the Packers should have been able to win more than one Super Bowl with Rodgers, and that the same patient, methodical approach that results in one quarterback taking over seamlessly from his predecessor also keeps the Packers from making the bold, cherry-on-top moves that could elevate them from good to championship good. The current Packers have a lot of work to do to fix their defense, and they'll need continued development from Love and his receivers and tight ends.
Love has shown us enough to deserve the benefit of the doubt, and I expect the Packers to continue to be perennial contenders. But telling a 25-year-old who just completed his first season as a starter that he'll win more than one Super Bowl feels like a lot.
C.J. Stroud will win the MVP award in 2024
Stroud and the Texans bowed out Saturday, as the top-seeded Ravens ran all over them in the second half. It was a tough ending to a dream rookie season for the Houston quarterback, who was playing without a couple of key receivers and up against the best defense in the league. But this campaign -- 4,108 passing yards, 23 TD throws and 5 interceptions during the regular season -- was nothing but encouraging for the Texans' future, and Stroud absolutely looks like the real deal.
There were times this season when he was being talked about as an MVP candidate. It's not ridiculous to imagine him winning it next season. Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes jump to mind as guys who won MVP awards in their second seasons.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
If Stroud continues to develop and advance in 2024 as he did in 2023, nothing's off the table. The Texans have some cap space and should be able to tailor their roster around Stroud now that he has established himself as their guy. And they play in a weak division, which should boost their win/loss record.
Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik could get one of these head coach jobs and leave, which would lead to questions about sustainability. But DeMeco Ryans appears to have built a good, deep coaching staff, and Slowik isn't the only one there who had a hand in Stroud's big season. The young QB is set up for big things.
Josh Allen's Bills will never get over their playoff hump
I mean, this was it, right? This was the year the Bills got the Chiefs to come to them in the playoffs. This was the year the Chiefs and their drop-prone offense were beatable.
The Bills rolled into this matchup on a six-game win streak, Allen played his tail off and Buffalo traded haymakers all night with Kansas City in a back-and-forth classic. With 1:47 left in the game and down 3 points, the Bills' drive stalled and Tyler Bass lined up for a tying field goal. The crowd was figuring overtime at least (though 1:47 would have felt like a lot of time for Patrick Mahomes). But Bass' kick missed -- WIDE RIGHT, of all things for Buffalo -- and the Chiefs were able to run out the clock.
For the third year in a row, and the second in a row at home, the Bills lost in the divisional round. And for the third time in the past four years, they were eliminated by the Chiefs. Sean McDermott's team has made the playoffs in six of his seven seasons in Buffalo, an impressive accomplishment when you consider the Bills hadn't made it in 17 years before he got there. But they have yet to reach the Super Bowl. And I promise you, Bills fans leaving Highmark Stadium on Sunday night were asking themselves if they ever will.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
After two frigid weekends in a row in Buffalo, I choose optimism. Allen is only 27 years old and can do things other quarterbacks can't do. The Bills found something on offense in the second half of this season that helped cut down on mistakes and turnovers, and still allowed them to be effective. McDermott and GM Brandon Beane have built a sustainable winning culture in Buffalo, and as long as they keep the group around Allen strong, they should continue to contend.
I'm not about to write off a team this good -- with leadership this good and a quarterback this good. Heck, if their kicker makes a field goal, the Bills' season could still be going. Buffalo fans might not want to hear it right now, with the pain from Sunday still so raw, but the Bills will be back.