Wild-card weekend seemed like an inflection point in the big picture of NFL teams contending for a Super Bowl. On a weekend in which recent Super Bowl attendees -- the Eagles and Rams -- were sent packing, a series of teams with young quarterbacks advanced.
After a three-season stretch in which they posted a record of 11-38-1, the Texans, led by C.J. Stroud, notched a blowout win over the Browns. The Packers, who were 3-6 at one point this season and wondering whether they had made the right choice at quarterback, saw Jordan Love light up the Cowboys in a 48-32 victory in Arlington, Texas.
My original article on the value of a quarterback on a rookie deal dates back to 2013. The four quarterbacks I highlighted in that piece were 2012 breakouts Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson, the latter of whom is the only one remaining in the NFL. Wilson, Patrick Mahomes and Carson Wentz have won Super Bowls as their team's primary quarterback on a rookie deal since then, and nearly half of the remaining playoff field is quarterbacked by a player on his first contract.
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Which of the teams with quarterbacks on rookie deals is best positioned to win a Super Bowl over the next three seasons? The teams in this year's playoff bracket have a leg up on the competition, of course, but Houston's sudden turnaround is a reminder of just how quickly the right quarterback (and a few key players around him) can change the complexion of a franchise and its ceiling.
Right now, there are 14 teams that have starting quarterbacks on a rookie deal who haven't yet earned a multiyear extension. (Love took a small pay cut in 2024 to have his fifth-year option picked up by the Packers.) Let's sort through them and their chances of winning a Super Bowl before 2026, after which most of these quarterbacks will either be eligible for a second deal, already on one or playing somewhere else.
I'll start with the teams further away from contention before hitting the top six:
Jump to a team:
ATL | CAR | CHI | GB
HOU | IND | JAX | LV | MIA
NE | PIT | SF | TEN | WSH
Group I: When rookie quarterback contracts go wrong
There's a series of teams with rookie quarterbacks under contract that will likely look to replace or challenge those quarterbacks this offseason. I'm not sure they're gaining a meaningful advantage by having that passer under center. These teams are listed below in alphabetical order, and they're in relatively different phases of contention, but they're linked by the holes they have at the position.
The Atlanta Falcons are a team that could make a quick leap. A new-look defense with six new starters imported from other teams finished 12th in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed. The offensive line is sound, and you don't need me to tell you about their playmakers after they have used three top-10 draft picks on skill-position players in recent years. All of that led to a 7-10 record in 2023, but much of the blame for that has been placed on coach Arthur Smith, who was fired after Week 18.
All that's left for the Falcons to do is land difference-makers at the two most important positions in any organization: coach and quarterback. Desmond Ridder was benched multiple times this season, and third-round picks who disappoint in their crack at the starting job typically don't get another year to prove whether they can do it. Ridder would be the incumbent by default if Atlanta doesn't add anybody, but the new coach seems likely to bring in at least one passer to serve as the presumptive starter in 2024.
The Las Vegas Raiders also need to make a decision about their coach, with the status of Antonio Pierce, who posted a 5-4 record as the interim coach, in question. Pierce has the support of his players -- and team owner Mark Davis will remember what happened in 2022, when he went against the locker room's wishes to bring back Rich Bisaccia and hired Josh McDaniels -- but the Raiders had one win against a team with a winning record in Pierce's nine games, when they beat the Chiefs on Christmas Day.
Pierce has done enough to earn the job, especially if he can repeat the feat with a defense that ranked second in points allowed per possession after he was promoted to the head job in November. Las Vegas had the league's 11th-oldest roster, though, with plenty of snaps from free agents who were brought in to supplement all the missing draft picks that went south during the Jon Gruden era. Some of those players, including wideout Davante Adams, linebacker Robert Spillane and guard Greg Van Roten, were positive difference-makers, but the Raiders are older and missing talent at so many core positions. Rookie top-10 pick Tyree Wilson was also a major disappointment, as the edge rusher had 3.5 sacks.
Rookie fourth-rounder Aidan O'Connell took over the starting quarterback job from Jimmy Garoppolo and enjoyed a four-touchdown day in the Raiders' blowout victory over the Chargers, but he finished 25th in QBR, throwing 12 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. He should be back on the roster in 2024, but handing him the starting job by default would be a lot like what the Texans did with Davis Mills in 2022 and the Falcons with Ridder this season. With Garoppolo on his way out, the Raiders will need a new veteran backup, preferably one who can push O'Connell.
The New England Patriots already have their new coach after they promoted Jerod Mayo. And like the Raiders, they have a defense that got hot in the second half; they led the league in points allowed per possession, even without their best pass-rusher (Matthew Judon) and most promising young cornerback (rookie first-round pick Christian Gonzalez). It remains to be seen whether Mayo can keep up that level of play on defense without his legendary former boss, but the Pats will count on the defense as the strength of the team.
That's good, because the offense ... well, you saw them play. The Patriots cycled between Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe at quarterback, never seemed settled along the offensive line and had what was arguably the league's worst group of playmakers. It seems impossible to believe they would run things back without making a change at quarterback, but with the No. 3 overall pick, they are likely out of the running for one of the top two passers. They also need building blocks at wide receiver and left tackle, which could lead them to Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State) or Joe Alt (Notre Dame). Mayo & Co. can't satisfy all of their needs on draft day, though. A move for Garoppolo would seem to make sense, even if it serves as a relatively unsatisfying short-term solution. New England is more than a year away.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, after being eliminated by the Bills in the wild-card round, face an uncertain path forward. Reports have suggested coach Mike Tomlin will return, which resolves one major concern. They fielded the league's oldest defense by snap-weighted age, so while they landed on a pair of future standouts in cornerback Joey Porter Jr. and defensive tackle Keeanu Benton in the 2023 draft, their defense probably won't be as good in 2024.
On the other hand, the Steelers have the league's third-youngest offense, and we saw signs of life from running back Najee Harris and wide receiver George Pickens at the end of the season. The only problem is those signs of life came with longtime backup Mason Rudolph in the fold after a disappointing season from Kenny Pickett, who entered the regular season with breakout hype, only to post the league's No. 27 QBR before suffering an ankle injury. He reportedly was healthy by the end of the season, but Tomlin decided against going back to the 2022 first-rounder down the stretch.
Pickett is about to enter a critical third season, but do the Steelers really have time to let him develop? Their core on defense is getting older, and with Tomlin entering the final year of his contract, the time to win is now. Pittsburgh hasn't won a playoff game since the 2016 season, and the only player left on the roster who played in that game is kicker Chris Boswell. (Defensive end Cam Heyward was on injured reserve.) First-round picks have a longer leash than others, but it would be a major disappointment if general manager Omar Khan didn't import a veteran to replace Mitch Trubisky and challenge Pickett in 2024. If the Steelers can acquire a Geno Smith type of QB (and enjoy the same kind of offensive boost the Seahawks got when they signed Smith), they could have the potential to make a much deeper playoff run.
Group II: Is this the right quarterback?
These teams aren't any closer to the top six, but they're facing a different sort of conundrum. The teams in Group I can be pretty confident they don't have the right guy. The teams in this tier have no idea whether their quarterback is a franchise player, most often because they haven't seen very much of him so far. If their quarterback turns out to be a star, watch out -- but it's too early to draw any conclusions.
The Carolina Panthers probably envisioned their season turning out like Houston's. Instead, they went 2-15, fired Frank Reich and appeared to set rookie No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young backward in the process. Young produced a 67 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A+), a measure that adjusts for era. The only quarterbacks who threw 200 or more attempts in their debut seasons with a worse ANY/A+ produced a mixed bag of future success: two hits (Terry Bradshaw and Jared Goff) and three failures (DeShone Kizer, Ryan Leaf and Josh Rosen).
Depending on how you view it, the excuses you might make for Young are either promising or discouraging. He was stuck behind the NFL's worst offensive line, threw to the league's least imposing group of wide receivers and didn't seem to have a coaching staff capable of creating solutions for him. The Panthers need to address all of those areas this offseason to get Young back on track. Carolina has a few young stars on defense in edge rusher Brian Burns, defensive tackle Derrick Brown and cornerback Jaycee Horn (although Horn hasn't been able to stay healthy). Hiring the right coach could get more out of recent top draft picks Ikem Ekwonu at left tackle and Jonathan Mingo at receiver, but the Panthers would have to hit a five-decision parlay to solve all of their problems in one offseason.
Shane Steichen appears to be the correct coaching hire for the Indianapolis Colts, who came within one drive of advancing to the postseason despite getting just 173 snaps from rookie No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson. The young quarterback got off to an exciting start, but he was able to complete only one game across his four starts without leaving injured. Missing close to a full season after undergoing shoulder surgery was a real setback.
The good news for the Colts is so many of the players around their quarterback look better than they did a year ago. Wideout Michael Pittman Jr., a likely franchise tag candidate, returned to form with an excellent season. Receiver Josh Downs looks exciting. The offensive line took a step in the right direction, with Bernhard Raimann holding up at left tackle. The pass rush finally rounded into form and helped spur a midseason turnaround, albeit one that came up just short. With more than $66 million in cap space, the Colts can be aggressive if they want to add a player or two for Richardson this offseason.
The Tennessee Titans were the kings of the AFC South as recently as November 2022; they've gone 6-18 over their past 24 games, leading to the firing of well-respected coach Mike Vrabel. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill struggled before getting hurt and giving way to rookie second-rounder Will Levis, who started his career with a four-touchdown game before throwing four touchdown passes across his eight remaining starts. Levis completed 58.4% of his passes and took sacks on nearly 10% of his dropbacks, perhaps a product of playing behind a porous offensive line.
The Titans are projected to have nearly $74 million in cap space this offseason, but that's before re-signing their own free agents, including running back Derrick Henry, defensive lineman Denico Autry, linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair or cornerback Kristian Fulton. General manager Ran Carthon's first foray into free agency was a disaster last year, as offensive tackle Andre Dillard was benched after five and a half games, played only 56% of the snaps on the season and still allowed 14.5 sacks, which was the second most of any player in the league, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
The first rounders the Titans have taken in recent years are either out of football (offensive tackle Isaiah Wilson), injured (cornerback Caleb Farley) or some combination of injured and ineffective (wideout Treylon Burks and offensive lineman Peter Skoronski). The Titans look closer to landing the No. 1 overall pick than competing for a playoff spot in 2024.
The wild-card team might be the Washington Commanders, who might be about to embark on a rebuild after trading away edge rushers Montez Sweat and Chase Young and going 4-13. They lost their final eight games under Ron Rivera, who was fired after the season. They have yet to replace him, although they did hire former 49ers executive Adam Peters to take over as general manager.
Those 13 losses landed the Commanders the No. 2 overall pick, where they're expected to draft a quarterback in the same spot in which the Texans drafted Stroud a year ago. Obviously, if they strike the same level of player by taking Drake Maye (North Carolina) or Caleb Williams (USC), it should help accelerate their rebuild. Washington has playmakers on offense, but it will need to invest in its offensive line and find edge-rushing talent after trading away two starters at the deadline. Peters will also need to hire a new coach, which might lead him to follow in Houston's footsteps and look toward another current or former member of the 49ers' organization as a candidate.
The top six teams
That leaves us with the six teams that have quarterbacks on rookie deals and seem closest to winning a title. From how things currently sit on the way to free agency and the draft, there's a clear divide in terms of likelihood between these top six and the teams we discussed earlier. I'll order these from least likely to most likely:
6. Chicago Bears
The great unknowns. One of the most fascinating offseasons in recent league history is ahead of us, as the Bears have pick Nos. 1 and 9 in April's draft and a quarterback they're at least moderately fond of in Justin Fields. General manager Ryan Poles hasn't gotten everything right since being hired in 2022, but the trade down with the Panthers a year ago is a potential masterstroke and could set this franchise on a championship trajectory (though drafting Stroud might have been the better solution).
All Poles has to do now is nail the landing. After the Bears confirmed they intend to bring back coach Matt Eberflus, Poles needs to decide what to do under center. If he wants to keep Fields, he should trade the top pick for multiple first-rounders. It might be tempting to just use the pick on a star wide receiver, such as Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State), but even an elite pass-catcher isn't worth three first-round picks, which would be the bare minimum in a trade. The Bears could still draft a wide receiver at No. 9 or with the first-round pick they get in 2024 as part of a potential trade.
More likely, the Bears will use the No. 1 overall pick on a quarterback and trade Fields to another team in need of a starter. I'll write about Chicago's options and what makes the most sense later on this winter, but the range of opinions I've heard on him from across the league has been fascinating, with a first-round pick on the high end and a third-rounder on the lower side. I would expect him to land a second-rounder and maybe a conditional pick if he sticks around with his new team down the line, but it takes only two teams to start a bidding war and one team to win.
If the Bears hit by drafting Caleb Williams (USC) at No. 1, add a left tackle at No. 9 and bring in extra pass-rushing help behind Montez Sweat in free agency or elsewhere in the draft, they should be in great shape to contend. Chicago ranked second in points allowed per drive over the second half of the season, so Eberflus appeared to have built a successful defense. Getting cornerback Jaylon Johnson to return would seem to be mandatory, either on the franchise tag or with a long-term deal.
Alternately, surrounding Fields with multiple first-rounders could work. He ranked 15th in QBR after returning from a thumb injury in Week 11, but the Bears could import another wide receiver, a left tackle and an offensive coordinator who can unlock the most out of Fields' ability to attack downfield, as he averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt this season. Either path could lead to sudden improvement, but the most likely route to a title would involve a sharp improvement in quarterback play.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
A year ago, the Jaguars seemed to be on the rise. A 6-1 stretch after their bye helped propel them to an unlikely division title, while a comeback from being down 27-0 to beat the Chargers in the wild-card round gave them just their second trip to the divisional round in 15 years. With quarterback Trevor Lawrence posting Pro Bowl-caliber numbers down the stretch and the other teams in the AFC South with a combined 14-35-2 record, it seemed like Jacksonville was about to take over the division for years to come.
Well, collapses can go both ways. This season, the Jags were 8-3 and in position to land the top seed in the AFC with a win over a Joe Burrow-less Bengals team on "Monday Night Football" in Week 13. Lawrence sustained an ankle injury, and the Jaguars lost and then dove into freefall. They lost five of their final six, with their lone win coming against the Panthers. With a win-and-in opportunity against a Titans team with nothing to play for in Week 18, the Jaguars fell behind 28-13 in the second half before losing 28-20. Lawrence and the Jags went from home-field advantage to staying home for the postseason in six weeks.
The recriminations began quickly. The Jags fired their entire defensive staff, although much-criticized offensive coordinator Press Taylor retained his role. There are questions about whether they will bring back free agent wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who seemed to fade in and out of games from week to week and had a potential season-saving score go off his hands in the fourth quarter of the Titans game. Nobody with credibility is suggesting Lawrence is the problem with the Jaguars, but three years in, there are questions about whether he'll become the MVP candidate many expected when he was taken with the No. 1 overall pick in 2020.
Lawrence is eligible for an extension this offseason, meaning his contract is about to get significantly more expensive. The Jags will need to make cutbacks elsewhere on the roster in the years to come, although they still have two years of runway with the fifth-year option included. Market-setting investments in players who aren't at key positions, such as guard Brandon Scherff and linebacker Foyesade Oluokun, are a lot easier to make when your quarterback is making $9 million per year than they are when he's making $60 million.
As disappointing as Jacksonville's season was, the more worrying thing might be the developments elsewhere in the division. It seemed like the Jags had the potential to enjoy a multiseason moat with favorable odds to win the AFC South, the sort of thing that makes it easier to feel good about getting guaranteed shots to win a Super Bowl every year. (Ask the Patriots how nice it was to be in the AFC East during the Tom Brady era!)
Now, the Colts and Texans look like contenders, and neither appears to be going away anytime soon. Stroud just had a better season as a rookie than any of Lawrence's three campaigns. Edge rusher Josh Allen had a career year, but Houston's Will Anderson Jr. was better by advanced metrics, and the Jags are about to pay Allen a lot of money. They are going to have to spend less in free agency over the next few years, while the Texans can go on a spending spree if so inclined. Their 8-3 start tells us the Jags have top-seed upside, but they seemed to be in a better situation a year ago than they are now.
4. Miami Dolphins
I wrote at length Monday about the conundrum facing the Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa, who will get a bump up to $23.2 million for his fifth-year option for 2024 before potentially becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2025. The team said all the right things about Tagovailoa and his future with the organization this week after being eliminated from the postseason, but we'll see whether Miami puts its money where its mouth is in the weeks to come.
This season seemed like the Dolphins' best chance of making a deep playoff run. Tagovailoa was on a cheap contract and healthy all season. The Dolphins had stocked up with veterans on expensive contracts, adding wideout Tyreek Hill, edge rusher Bradley Chubb and cornerback Jalen Ramsey via trade before giving them extensions. The bevy of first-rounders Miami enjoyed from 2019 to 2021 as part of the Laremy Tunsil and Trey Lance deals were rounding into form and entering their peak years while still remaining on rookie contracts. With no first rounders in the past two drafts, this was the best roster the Dolphins were likely to field over the next few years.
Instead, the Dolphins were shredded by injuries at the end of the season, missed out on both the top seed in the conference and the AFC East title with consecutive losses and then lost in frigid conditions to the Chiefs. Now, with the team nearly $43 million over the projected 2024 cap, general manager Chris Grier will need to make some tough decisions.
That $43 million figure is before franchising or re-signing defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, and the Dolphins could lose outside linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel, who stood out with his versatility and ability to rush the quarterback. Offensive linemen Connor Williams and Robert Hunt are free agents. Wideout Jaylen Waddle, edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and safety Jevon Holland are all now eligible for significant extensions. There's just no way to keep all of these guys while retaining Tagovailoa without making cutbacks elsewhere.
The Dolphins will clear out some space with restructures for Hill, Tagovailoa and Chubb, even though the latter is coming off a torn ACL. Pass-rusher Emmanuel Ogbah will be cut to free up about $15 million. There will be questions about bringing back cornerback Xavien Howard, who missed most of the season-ending losing streak because of a foot injury, and linebacker Jerome Baker, who has a $14.8 million cap hit in 2024. Miami is also without its third-round pick as part of its tampering punishment and sent its fourth-rounder to the Broncos in the Chubb deal.
There's still plenty to be excited about in Miami, but what looked to be a banner season quickly fizzled out. Hill, coming of one of the best wide receiver seasons in league history, turns 30 in May. Ramsey was an All-Pro when healthy, but he missed half the season after undergoing knee surgery and will be 30 in October. The Dolphins transitioned from rebuild to win-now quickly, but their moves weren't enough to win a playoff game. Now, they're transitioning from adding as many key players as possible to doing what they can to keep as many of those players on the roster.
3. Houston Texans
The Texans are the toughest team to rank in the top six. I could see arguments for them at No. 1 and arguments for them at No. 6, depending on which elements of their roster and rebuild you want to focus on. They're a unique team in terms of roster construction, as both a product of general manager Nick Caserio's philosophy over the past few seasons and what looks to have been the best draft of 2023. They've made major strides and still, in some ways, have a lot to do.
Let's start with the obvious positives. In addition to being a wildly entertaining and poised quarterback, C.J. Stroud now has the most valuable contract in all of football. He's owed a total of $12.1 million over the next three years, will have a fifth-year option available after that and isn't even eligible for an extension until 2026. He's going to make less per season than the top quarterbacks are making per game in 2025. You'd probably take Patrick Mahomes over Stroud, but given the contract and his precocious performance as a 22-year-old, Stroud is probably the No. 2 overall pick in a leaguewide roster redraft.
There's a core of young players around Stroud who are all on rookie deals, too. Edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. was my pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Wideout Tank Dell would have been in the Offensive Rookie of the Year discussion behind Stroud if he hadn't fractured his left fibula in early December. Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., the No. 3 overall pick in the 2022 draft, has missed 14 games over the past two season, but after returning from a hamstring injury in November, he allowed a 41.3 passer rating in coverage. Wideout Nico Collins ranked second in the league in yards per route run and is still one year away from free agency. Pass-rusher Jonathan Greenard is finishing up his rookie deal after a breakout season -- and Laremy Tunsil is settled in as one of the NFL's highest-paid left tackles -- but so much of Houston's core is still on remarkably cheap contracts over the next couple of seasons.
On the other hand: Did you know the Texans are one of the oldest teams in football? It's true. By snap-weighted age, they are actually the league's fourth-oldest team, with a league-average offense and the fifth-oldest defense. They're essentially identical to the Bills, whose contending window most believe to be shutting because of the age of their roster.
Does snap-weighted age not tell the entire story of how young and valuable Houston's players are at several key positions? Of course. Does it also tell us the players around them are older than you would expect? Yes. Caserio's philosophy over the past few lean years has been to invest heavily in veterans signed to short-term deals, allowing the Texans to fill out their roster with players who won't damage the team's flexibility in the long term.
The problem with doing that now is that a lot of those players need to be replaced, and the Texans don't necessarily have young players ready to step in. They had 26 players line up for at least 40% of the offensive or defensive snaps this season, and 10 of them are free agents this offseason. Many of those players were stopgaps, but stopgaps exist for a reason -- because there's nothing else to take their place. Houston is more ambitious now, and it won't be able to make it to the next level by relying on veterans on low-cost, short-term deals to fill out half of its starting lineup.
In the big picture, a lot of teams would love to be the Texans right now. They don't have their own first- or third-round picks in this year's draft as part of the Anderson trade, but they have picks coming to them from the Browns as the last selections from the Deshaun Watson heist. The Texans might have the league's most exciting core of players on rookie deals and a possible Coach of the Year in DeMeco Ryans. If they can add to that this offseason, they'll be in great shape. After three years of toiling in relative obscurity, though, the stakes for building this roster and taking advantage of Stroud's rookie deal are a lot higher.
2. Green Bay Packers
It's good to be a Packers fan right now. After the drama that surrounded the end of Aaron Rodgers' tenure in Green Bay and a 3-6 start to the season, the Packers are the toast of the league. Jordan Love ranked second in QBR over the second half of the season. The guy one point ahead of him was Dak Prescott, who was picked off twice by the Green Bay defense in Sunday's 48-32 victory. All Love did in that game was post the best QBR by any quarterback in a playoff game in the history of the metric, which dates back to 2007. (Yes, better than any playoff game from Rodgers.)
Going 9-8 and claiming the seventh seed in the NFC isn't always proof a team is on the fast track to Super Bowl contention, however. The Bears were 8-8 in 2020, eked into the playoffs as the 7-seed and were quickly dispatched by the Saints. They fired their coach and general manager a year later. A year ago, the Giants went 9-8, won a playoff game as the 6-seed, were blown out in the divisional round and fell in love with a flawed team. Having some perspective on what the Packers have accomplished is important.
Why might they potentially be different than those Giants and Bears teams? Their youth. Green Bay was the NFL's youngest team by snap-weighted age this season, coming in just ahead, coincidentally, of the Giants and Bears. It has the youngest offense by a full year per player per snap versus the 31st-ranked Colts, with its average player coming in at 25.1 years old. The defense is the eighth youngest.
The Giants were also a young team in 2022, as quarterback Daniel Jones got hot in December and led the league in QBR over the final month of the season, but they were young because they were cycling through replacement-level players. The Packers are young by design, having drafted 33 players over the past three seasons.
Many are making significant contributions, but nowhere is that being felt more acutely than the passing attack. Before the season, using what we knew about the quarterback room and Mike Clay's projections for who would catch passes, I estimated the Packers would have the second-youngest target-weighted receiving corps of wide receivers and tight ends since 1990, trailing only the 0-16 Browns from 2017. Love's average pass to a wide receiver or tight end was projected to go to a player 23.4 years old.
Our estimate skewed too old. Christian Watson missed chunks of the season because of hamstring injuries, which opened up opportunities for Jayden Reed. Luke Musgrave made an immediate impact, and Tucker Kraft stepped right in when Musgrave went down. The average age of a targeted Packers wide receiver or tight end was 23.2, which put them just ahead of those 2017 Browns. Love was officially throwing to the youngest group of wide receivers and tight ends we've seen in 32 years, if not longer.
Five different Green Bay receivers had 90 receiving yards in a game, a number topped only by the Chargers. While that hints at the injuries the team dealt with and the fact that nobody has emerged as a true No. 1 receiver, it also speaks to Love's ability to form a connection with just about anybody from week to week and the depth Green Bay has assembled at the position. With an offensive line with only one starter (Elgton Jenkins) older than 26, the Packers have been very good for two months and have the potential to be great as their players improve this offseason.
Joe Barry's defense is usually what gets the blame when things go wrong for Green Bay, and while it did a great job stifling Prescott and the Cowboys to set up an unassailable lead last week, the Packers rank in the bottom half of the league in EPA per play and points allowed per possession this season. This is the same defense that just last month allowed 30 points to the Panthers and 34 to the Bucs, and allowed Tommy DeVito to go 17-of-21 for 158 yards with a touchdown in a 24-22 loss to the Giants.
Packers fans have agitated for a change at coordinator for a few years now, and it's understandable. This team has seven first-round picks on that side of the ball to go along with veterans such as linebacker De'Vondre Campbell and edge rusher Preston Smith. Cornerback Rasul Douglas had been in the lineup before being traded to the Bills in October. On paper, the Packers should have a reliably impactful defense. That hasn't always played out accordingly.
With the win over the Cowboys, it would be a surprise if there were any major changes to Matt LaFleur's coaching staff this offseason. (Maybe there will be questions if the 49ers drop 40 on their longtime rivals this weekend.) Firing Barry might not solve Green Bay's problems -- and I believe this team can keep winning without making a change at coordinator -- but the offense has leaned into change and exhibited a championship-caliber ceiling over the past month. If the Packers are willing to take a shot on improving the defensive side of the ball, it could make them Super Bowl contenders next season.
1. San Francisco 49ers
As exciting as the Packers' future appears to be, I still have to put their divisional-round opponents in the top spot. The Niners have home-field advantage throughout the NFC bracket, are coming off a 12-5 season and have a quarterback posting MVP-caliber numbers while he makes less per season than Joe Burrow made per quarter in 2023. If C.J. Stroud doesn't have the most valuable contract in football, Brock Purdy's four-year, $3.7 million deal with the 49ers would qualify.
Stroud is seen as the straw stirring the drink, while Purdy is instead portrayed as a product of the brilliant talents surrounding the former Mr. Irrelevant, something that might either look prescient or unfair with a few more years of perspective. As it stands, Purdy has been wildly productive since taking over as the starter in San Francisco, and there's little reason to believe the 49ers would be held back from winning a Super Bowl with him on the field.
Around Purdy on offense and defense is a core of players with the ability to make the All-Pro team every season if they stay healthy and live up to expectations. I'm not sure anybody can compete with San Francisco's inner core of stars in running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle, offensive tackle Trent Williams, defensive linemen Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave, linebacker Fred Warner and defensive backs Charvarius Ward and Talanoa Hufanga. Outside of Hufanga, who tore an ACL in November, all of those players are present and accounted for heading into this postseason, which is a huge boon given the injury issues that have impacted many of them in the past.
While the 49ers will still have a great shot of winning the Super Bowl with that core over the next couple of years, this is likely going to be their best chance over the three-year window we're analyzing. They're already the 1-seed, which is a huge competitive advantage and tough to guarantee for any team heading into the season, even with perennial contenders such as the Chiefs.
That core is getting older and more expensive. The only players in that group we listed who are still on rookie deals are Aiyuk, Hufanga and Purdy. The former two are eligible for extensions this offseason, while Purdy will be able to sign a new contract after 2024. There's a conversation to be had about whether the Niners will pursue a plan I laid out in 2018 and consider changing the quarterback for another option on a cost-controlled contract while paying heavily to keep stars around him, but I don't think that's likely. A massive raise for Purdy would mean cutbacks elsewhere, especially in a group in which Hargrave, Williams and Kittle are already over 30. San Francisco has the league's third-oldest team by snap-weighted age.
The 49ers will also be feeling the squeeze of missing out on the first-round picks they sent to the Dolphins as part of the trade that landed them quarterback Trey Lance. Those picks were the best chance they had at landing starting-caliber talent on cost-controlled contracts at positions, and general manager John Lynch will either need to sign free agents (squeezing the cap further) or plug in Day 2 or Day 3 selections to replace those missing pieces. They have enjoyed a bounty of compensatory picks as teams have signed away their coaches and executives, which helps, but even the best compensatory pick doesn't compare to a first-rounder.
Right now, the 49ers are one of the NFL's two best teams, alongside the Ravens. This is both the best team they're likely to field over the next three years and their best chance at a title over that time frame. It's too dramatic to say they're on the way down while the Packers and Texans are on their way up, but it's not wrong, either. Thankfully for Kyle Shanahan & Co., they're only three wins away from ending this contest before 2024 even begins.