NFL playoff overreactions can feel a little extraneous. After all, playoff games have real consequences. One team's season ends, the other's continues. We aren't overreacting to these results -- they are massively important on their own without our help.
That said, there's nothing wrong with taking a big-picture look at these results as they come in. What we see in wild-card weekend can have repercussions on the rest of this postseason and maybe even next season. So join us in judging potential overreactions to the first round of playoff games, including one for each team in action.
Jump to a team:
TB | PHI | BUF | PIT | DET | LAR
GB | DAL | KC | MIA | HOU | CLE
The Buccaneers are a legitimate threat to win the NFC and go to the Super Bowl
We tend to write off the NFC South, and you can understand why. Last season, Tampa Bay won it with an 8-9 record. This season, it won it with a 9-8 record. It's a pretty hilariously poor division right now, and to dismiss its champion when we talk about legitimate contenders is understandable.
But regardless of the competition, this is a team that has now won six of its past seven games. It has a rejuvenated, tough veteran quarterback in Baker Mayfield who has recovered beautifully from his disappointing 2022 season in Carolina. Tampa Bay has superstars at wide receiver and reliable producers at key positions on both sides of the ball. The Bucs started hot and then just about disappeared from our radar, losing six of seven during a brutal midseason stretch. But they got it together for a late-season run, easily beat the Eagles and now head to Detroit for a divisional round matchup Sunday afternoon with the Lions.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Detroit played the closest game of any of the winning teams on wild-card weekend, but I don't hold that against the Lions. I was in Cincinnati a couple of years ago when the Bengals won their first home playoff game in forever, and I remember it was a tough one. They needed a late Derek Carr interception to lock down their wild-card win at home that season, and the end result was a massive, citywide exhale. They went on to win their next two games and advance to the Super Bowl.
I can totally see the Lions doing something similar, having finally broken their own decades-long playoff drought, and their personnel are drastically superior to Tampa Bay's group. With an extra day of rest and without the pressure of having not won a playoff game in the 21-year history of their own stadium, the Lions have more than enough to beat the Bucs. Tampa Bay deserves a ton of credit for the season it had, and Mayfield deserves a contract extension. But I don't see how this team belongs in the same conversation as the 49ers and Lions at this point.
The Eagles need to rethink everything -- coach, quarterback, everything
I mean ... even the Jaguars are sitting home watching the Eagles and thinking, "Wow! What a collapse!" Seven weeks ago, the Eagles were a 10-1 defending NFC champion, on track for the top seed in the conference and on the road back to the Super Bowl. Today, they are first-round playoff losers, having dropped six of their final seven games to end a season that carried so much promise.
The offense didn't click the way it did last season. The defense completely cratered under two different coordinators. Receiver A.J. Brown wasn't healthy enough to play in the playoff game, and quarterback Jalen Hurts couldn't replicate his 2022 magic. Coach Nick Sirianni never seemed to have any answers. Everything that went right for the Eagles in 2022 seemed to go wrong over the past two months, starting with that Dec. 3 loss to the 49ers. And now they head into the offseason with a lot more questions than we ever thought they would.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Before that 49ers loss, this was a team that had won 25 of its previous 31 games. That's on Sirianni's and Hurts' résumés just as much as the past seven games. I do think there's something to the idea that there was dysfunction in the building that needs to be addressed. The Eagles obviously felt the losses of offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon to head-coaching jobs last offseason, and it's fair to say they should and likely will be in the market for a couple of new coordinators.
But all of that said, Sirianni and Hurts are still a pairing that has done a lot more good than bad since they've been together, and they deserve a chance to try to fix what went wrong in Philadelphia this season. I'd rather, at this point, try to rebuild around those guys than without one of them.
The Bills' defensive injuries will doom them in the divisional round
Buffalo has already been playing without defensive stalwarts Matt Milano and Tre'Davious White. It also went into Monday's game without linebacker Tyrel Dodson and cornerback Rasul Douglas because of injuries. And during Monday's game against the Steelers, the Bills lost middle linebacker Terrel Bernard to an ankle injury. Cornerback Christian Benford and linebacker Baylon Spector also got hurt in that game.
If it weren't for veteran linebacker A.J. Klein, whom the Bills signed this past week right before he and his family had packed up their RV for a planned vacation to Key West (true story!), the Bills might not have had enough to hold off the Steelers. But next week's opposing quarterback isn't Mason Rudolph, and it's hard to know how many of these players can make it back on a short week to play Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
It's funny. This divisional round matchup between Kansas City and Buffalo -- teams that have been AFC powerhouses for a half-decade or more now -- feels a little weird this season. Neither has been as dominant as we're accustomed to. Kansas City's offense hasn't found its groove all season, and the game will be in Buffalo this time instead of Kansas City, so you'd think the Bills would have an advantage. But the Chiefs' defense is opportunistic, and it's probably a lot to ask for the Bills to play a turnover-free game for the second week in a row.
If the Bills' defense is as shredded Sunday night as it was by the end of Monday night, Mahomes should be able to do enough to get Kansas City back to the AFC Championship Game.
Mike Tomlin just coached his final game for the Steelers
Let's make one thing clear: I do not believe there is a world in which the Steelers fire Tomlin after he won 10 games with this roster. They might want to think about offering him a lifetime contract. But when ESPN's Brooke Pryor tried to ask Tomlin about his contract -- which has one year left on it -- after Monday's game, Tomlin walked away from the lectern before she finished the question. Clearly, there's something going on there.
There have been rumblings in recent weeks that Tomlin could consider taking a year off, the same way Sean Payton did a few years ago, and then resurface to coach someone else in 2025. Monday's non-answer will do little to quell that talk.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
I still think the most likely outcome here is a Tomlin contract extension in Pittsburgh. Maybe I'm naive. And yes, I know he's not going to coach there forever. But this was the kind of trying season that could lead a coach to rethink things, and if Kenny Pickett isn't the long-term answer at quarterback, Tomlin confronts the possibility of having to start over at that position, which is daunting.
So yeah, I'm not dismissing the talk or the idea that Tomlin could end up stepping away. This offseason has already had more than its share of earth-rattling coaching news, and there could well be more to come. I'm just betting this one, with the most coaching-stable franchise in the NFL, doesn't add to the chaos.
The Lions' quarterback of the future is officially Jared Goff
When the Lions dealt Matthew Stafford to the Rams in January 2021, Goff felt like a throw-in -- a guy who could bridge the time it would take for Detroit to rebuild under new coach Dan Campbell and GM Brad Holmes. Instead, Goff and the Lions have grown together into the team that just knocked Stafford and the Rams out of the postseason Sunday night.
Goff has one year and just under $27 million left on his contract with a Detroit team that still has its eye on this Super Bowl and more to come. So the Lions will either be looking to extend him or looking for someone to replace him. And after Sunday -- when Goff completed 22 of 27 passes for 277 yards and a touchdown pass in Detroit's first playoff win in 32 years -- it's hard to imagine it won't be the former.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Goff won't even turn 30 until October, and he has many years left on a career that has been a lot more successful than it's often given credit for. And he sure seems to fit in Detroit. As long as Campbell is there, managing this program the way he is, Goff can get done what the Lions need. The team believes in him, and this team's belief in itself is one of the great stories in the league over the past couple of years.
At this point, no matter how this season ends, it feels like something is building in Detroit toward better and better things. Extending the quarterback and keeping that going feels like the clear and obvious way to go. Expect a massive extension for Goff this offseason.
The Rams are a real threat to the 49ers in the NFC West next season
The flip side of Detroit's emotional win was the end of a somewhat magical second-half run by the very young Rams. Not much was expected of this team coming into 2023; it was saddled with massive dead salary cap charges in what looked to be a rebuilding season. But Sean McVay's group made it to the playoffs and gave the Lions a heck of a game.
After the game, Stafford said he planned to be back. McVay has already promised he'll be back. I guess we're waiting to hear from defensive tackle Aaron Donald on that, but he doesn't look like a player close to the end. If this was the rebuilding year, then next year the Rams have a chance to be dangerous, no?
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Rams currently project to have more than $40 million in cap space for 2024, having absorbed so much dead money this season for the purpose of turning things around as quickly as possible in 2024 and beyond. Stafford had what might have been the best regular season of his career (63.6 QBR was sixth), and the Rams look to be refreshing at key positions around him, with good young players who developed as this season went along. Receiver Puka Nacua was a revelation at wide receiver -- he caught nine passes for 181 yards and a score Sunday -- and Kyren Williams has been reliable at running back. And this group looks like it can stay good for a while.
The Niners, as awesome as they are, have some tough cap decisions to make as they work to keep their excellent core together. The Rams didn't stay down for long, and they look ready to give San Francisco a real push for the division title in 2024.
Jordan Love's extension will be bigger than Dak Prescott's next deal
Love and the Packers' offense were awesome Sunday, beating Dallas 48-32 on the road against a defense that spent much of the season as the best in the league. But really, it was a continuation of what Love and coach Matt LaFleur have been doing throughout the past month or so. There were ups and downs in Love's first season as a starting quarterback, but he absolutely got better as the season went along, and there's no downgrading what he just did in his first playoff game.
Love -- who threw for 272 yards and three touchdown passes Sunday -- has one year left on his contract. As of now, he's scheduled to make about $11 million next year, but that could increase if the Packers keep winning and he triggers more escalators in his contract. Something will have to be done in terms of an extension. He has earned it.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Prescott's starting point is higher, which matters in these situations. And the "extension" Love did last offseason gives the Packers all the leverage. They don't have to extend him. He's a bargain for them next season at that price, and that likely means he'll have to take a little bit less in a compromise. Prescott also has a clause in his contract that prohibits the Cowboys from using the franchise or transition tags on him, which gives him even more leverage.
So while I think Love's deal could -- and probably should -- pay him more than the $40 million per year that Daniel Jones got from the Giants, I'm not sure it happens. And even if it does, I think Prescott tops him. Both of these guys are going to get PAID this offseason, and just because one beat the other in the playoffs doesn't necessarily mean that QB will get more.
Bill Belichick will be the Cowboys' coach in 2024
Oh, the rumblings have been out there for weeks. They intensified last week, when Belichick and the Patriots announced they were going their separate ways. I've heard external speculation along the lines of: "If the Cowboys flop in the playoffs, I wouldn't put it past Jerry Jones to fire Mike McCarthy." Well, the Cowboys flopped.
Belichick clearly wants to keep coaching, and he'd love to go somewhere that has a quarterback in place. Prescott has only one year left on his contract, but he's likely to get the aforementioned extension this offseason. Considering the Cowboys have won 12 regular-season games each of the past three seasons, Dallas might be the best place for Belichick to get the 15 wins he needs to pass Don Shula's 347 (including playoffs) as quickly as possible. And if Jones thinks McCarthy is the reason his very good teams can't get over the playoff hump, who knows?
Verdict: OVERREACTION
It's an overreaction for a number of reasons. First, we don't have any reason to believe, other than those outside rumblings, that Jones would even consider firing McCarthy. Again, he has won 12 games in each of the past three seasons. This season, he took over the offense, and both that unit and Prescott got better. Everything I've heard from inside the Dallas building is that the team is very happy with the job McCarthy is doing. Could something like Sunday change that? Sure. But we don't need to assume it will.
The second reason is the question of whether Belichick would want to coach the Cowboys. The Dallas head coach has to be someone who's comfortable with the very active and public role that Jones plays. The Cowboys are as public with their business as any team in the league, and Belichick famously wants to never reveal anything about what his team is doing. He and Jones might not be able to work together. I still think that if they move on from McCarthy, the most likely 2024 Cowboys coach would be Dan Quinn. But we shall see.
The Chiefs' wide receiver issues are overblown
Rookie receiver Rashee Rice was an absolute superstar in Kansas City's frozen 26-7 victory over the Dolphins on Saturday night. He caught eight passes for 130 yards and a touchdown, as Patrick Mahomes authored a vintage postseason effort. It was the most receiving yards in a playoff game by a rookie in team history, per ESPN Stats & Information. Tight end Travis Kelce chipped in with seven catches for 71 yards, and running back Isiah Pacheco had 89 tough rushing yards and a touchdown on 24 carries.
The Chiefs had more than enough offense to handle a beat-up Dolphins team and will now play in Buffalo in the divisional round as they continue their Super Bowl title defense.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Yes, Rice was amazing, but only one other Chiefs wide receiver had more than one catch Saturday. That was Justin Watson, who had two for 20 yards. It's not hard to imagine a defense figuring out that it should key on Rice and make someone like Marquez Valdes-Scantling beat them, and if that happens, I still worry about this Chiefs offense.
Kansas City has been kicking an awful lot of field goals lately, including four Saturday, two in Week 18 and six in Week 17. In that same three-game stretch, the offense has scored just three touchdowns. The Chiefs scored touchdowns on two of six red zone drives Saturday (and were 1-for-3 in their Week 17 victory over Cincinnati). Issues remain here for this offense, and the competition is only going to get tougher.
It's no lock that the Dolphins will extend Tua Tagovailoa this offseason
Tagovailoa was a flop Saturday night in the way-below-freezing cold, completing 20 of 39 passes for 199 yards, one TD pass and one interception. His minus-18% completion percentage over expectation was the third worst in a postseason game since NFL Next Gen Stats began tracking it in 2016. While it might be easy to blame the weather, the fact is the Dolphins' offense didn't look like itself for the final month of the season. They fell short of their scoring average in five of their final six games, and Tagovailoa didn't clear 300 yards passing in a game after Nov. 19.
The Dolphins picked up Tagovailoa's fifth-year option last spring, so he's already under contract for 2024. But they have to decide whether to commit long-term, let him play out a lame-duck year or even, I guess, replace him.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Dolphins' lousy finish can be attributed to a lot of things, not the least of which are injuries to top wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and a complete injury decimation of the defense. And it's pretty important to remember that Tagovailoa did answer the biggest preseason question we had about him by staying healthy and playing in every game. There are for sure reasons to extend him.
But the way this season ended should have Miami questioning which parts of its plan are sustainable for long-term success. And if Tagovailoa is one of those question marks, then the Dolphins have to think about the correct price for a potential extension. They don't want to find themselves in a Jones/Giants situation here.
The Texans -- not the Bills or Chiefs -- are actually the biggest threat to the Ravens in the AFC
What an impressive playoff debut for C.J. Stroud and his Texans on Saturday. Stroud threw three first-half touchdown passes, and the Houston defense returned a pair of Joe Flacco interceptions for touchdowns in the second half as Houston rolled into the divisional round with a 45-14 win. Per ESPN Stats & Information, the Texans' 31-point victory is the largest winning margin by any team with a rookie starting QB in NFL postseason history -- and Stroud's 98.4 QBR was the second-highest mark for any QB in a playoff game since 2006.
As has been the case all season, Stroud looked completely unfazed by the pressure of his first playoff game. Nico Collins looks the part of a No. 1 receiver, going for 96 yards and a touchdown Saturday afternoon, and coach DeMeco Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik continue to push all the right buttons. The Texans are set up for a second-round matchup in Baltimore.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Full respect to Stroud and this story, but Cleveland was a badly flawed, badly injured team being quarterbacked by a guy who was on his couch two months ago. Lamar Jackson isn't as interception-prone as this version of Flacco. And while Cleveland did have one of the league's best defenses in the first half of the season, it slowed down significantly in the second half. Myles Garrett had a grand total of one sack over his final six games of the season. This Browns team was out of gas.
Houston's next game will be on the road against a rested top-seed Ravens team. Can it beat them? Sure. But the defense in Baltimore seems set up much better to take advantage of the Texans' shortcomings than these Browns were by the end.
A healthy Browns team will be a real Super Bowl contender next season
If Ryans isn't going to win Coach of the Year, the award is probably going to Cleveland's Kevin Stefanski, who managed his team through all kinds of problems and into the playoffs in 2023.
Flacco was the fourth different starting quarterback the Browns used this season, following a shoulder injury to starter Deshaun Watson and disappointing fill-in efforts by PJ Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Browns also lost both of their starting tackles to season-ending injuries during the season, as well as their top backup at that position. Oh, and remember way, way back at the beginning of the season when running back Nick Chubb hurt his knee?
Cleveland went 11-6 in spite of all of this, and you have to believe the Browns will be healthier in 2024.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Browns may not be as flush with cap space as we've grown accustomed to them being, so they'll have to make a cut here or there. But if Watson can come back healthy and play the way they're paying him to play, if Chubb is back and ready to roll and if the offensive line is whole again, then the Browns showed this season they have the players and coaching to make life miserable for opponents. A second year in Jim Schwartz's system would make that defense even more formidable. Cleveland is here to stay for a while as a legit AFC contender.