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senior NFL national reporter- Jeremy Fowler is a senior national NFL writer for ESPN, covering the entire league including breaking news. Jeremy also contributes to SportsCenter both as a studio analyst and a sideline reporter covering for NFL games. He is an Orlando, Florida native who joined ESPN in 2014 after covering college football for CBSSports.com.
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senior NFL national reporter- Dan Graziano is a senior NFL national reporter for ESPN, covering the entire league and breaking news. Dan also contributes to Get Up, NFL Live, SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, Sunday NFL Countdown and Fantasy Football Now. He is a New Jersey native who joined ESPN in 2011, and he is also the author of two published novels.
Week 17 of the 2023 NFL season is here, and league insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano are breaking down the biggest questions, latest news and notable buzz of the week.
What are our boldest playoff race predictions with two weeks remaining? Which players have the most to prove before the end of the regular season? How many coaching jobs will be open come the offseason? And which teams are on upset watch this weekend? It's all here, as Dan and Jeremy answer big questions and empty their notebooks with everything they've heard heading into Week 17.
Jump to a topic:
Bold playoff race predictions
Most to prove | Open coaching gigs
Upset picks | Latest buzz, notes
What is your boldest playoff race prediction?
Graziano: The Jaguars will miss the playoffs. They were 8-3 at one point but have lost their past four in a row and are in a three-way tie with Houston and Indianapolis for first place in the AFC South. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is being held together with wire and duct tape, and receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones are out with injuries. The offensive line was never a strength. And the defense hasn't stopped anybody all season. We thought this team would coast to a division title, and it very much has not.
The Jaguars' last two games come against the Panthers and Titans: winnable games, and if they win them both, they win the division. But Jacksonville is running on fumes right now, the Panthers are playing better, and you know Mike Vrabel will have the Titans ready to go in Week 18. I don't think it would be a total shock to see the Jaguars slip up and lose one or even both of those games. Houston could get C.J. Stroud back from the concussion protocol as soon as this week, and the Colts and Texans play each other in Week 18, meaning one of them will get to at least nine wins. You asked for bold, and this qualifies. It would be an epic collapse for the Jags.
Fowler: The Packers will sneak into the playoffs -- and win a game. Their schedule is manageable, with the injury-ravaged Vikings -- another player in the wild-card hunt -- and the uneven (though surging) Bears on deck. If the Packers win both games, and the Rams lose to the 49ers in Week 18, Green Bay holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Los Angeles. And with the NFC South teams all playing each other over the next two weeks, they could cancel each other out, leaving just one of them -- the division winner -- in the final field.
Sure, the Packers' defense is underachieving, but the offense is trending positively, and Jordan Love appears built for the moment. They can match up admirably against, say, a second-seeded Eagles in the first round. What about the top of the AFC, Dan? Can Miami take the top seed from Baltimore?
Graziano: Oh, sure. These two teams will play this weekend, and the Ravens had to fly back across the country after what was clearly an emotional victory over the 49ers in San Francisco on Monday night. It's not out of the question that the Ravens could let down and the Dolphins could steal one before going home to beat the Bills in Week 18 to snatch the No. 1 seed. I wouldn't classify it as likely, but Miami is legitimate as a top contender and would relish the opportunity to prove it by taking down the conference's best team on the road.
People have started to talk about the Bills catching the Dolphins for the division title, but I still find that farfetched. Miami has something special going on. To be fair, that's also true for the Ravens, and I have no idea who I'm picking in that game this weekend.
Fowler: Even though I'm leaning Dolphins for Sunday's game, Baltimore's performance over San Francisco resonates in a big way. That Mike Macdonald-led defense looks built for the playoffs. It totally minimized San Francisco's attack and forced Brock Purdy to play from behind, which doesn't look like San Francisco's forte. While the Bills might be the most dangerous team in the AFC -- they are peaking at the right time, and back-dooring the playoffs as a non-favorite might be the fuel they need to actually break through -- Baltimore looks like the team that can put together complete performances most consistently.
Which player has the most on the line over the final two weeks of the regular season?
Fowler: Justin Fields. Barring a surprise, the Bears will secure the No. 1 overall draft pick via Carolina, giving them the entire field of draft-eligible quarterbacks. Many people around the league believe Chicago should just take USC's Caleb Williams and start over. But Fields has made this decision difficult with his toughness, work ethic and playmaking. He has shown some growth over the past five weeks, and he's very well liked in the locker room.
Could Fields use the final two games to show he's not a limited passer from the pocket? There's already a pretty big sample on that, but closing arguments are important, and Fields can make a compelling one over the final two weeks against the Falcons and Packers. Plus, the contractual implications loom large because he's eligible for the fifth-year option this offseason.
Graziano: Yes, I agree that Fields is the answer to this question for all of the reasons you outline there. But it'd be pretty boring if I just repeated what you wrote, so here are some other candidates ...
A few running backs -- Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler, etc. -- come to mind, but I just don't think there's any pot of gold waiting for these guys. Instead, the player who jumped out for me is Bengals receiver Tee Higgins, who didn't get the extension he wanted from the team last offseason and is eligible for free agency after this season ends. Cincinnati can franchise tag Higgins, and that might be the most likely outcome. But the Bengals are going to have to make some tough cap choices at some point soon, with Joe Burrow already signed and Ja'Marr Chase's extension on the horizon.
Higgins has an opportunity, for however long Chase is out because of his shoulder injury, to show teams he can function as a true No. 1 receiver. The second half of Saturday's loss to Pittsburgh made a pretty compelling case (117 yards and a touchdown). If he keeps it up, he could be a very desirable free agent in a very deep receiver class.
Fowler: Higgins is a good one, though enough teams probably already see him as a top-shelf receiver who will get paid. One QB I didn't expect to put in such a category: Lawrence. He's about to enter his third NFL offseason, which is when Burrow and Justin Herbert landed megadeals this past year. While I don't sense Jacksonville has been shaken in its belief that Lawrence is the franchise cornerstone for the next decade, he simply needs to play better. His penchant for turnovers is alarming -- he's averaging 1.3 per game this season, up from 1.0 last year. Eight of his 19 turnovers this season have come in the past three games.
This doesn't happen in a vacuum. Lawrence has battled several injuries over several weeks, and the entire offense misses Kirk. But cleaner play over the final two weeks in a playoff push could assuage any concerns, real or not, about giving Lawrence the equivalent of an NBA max deal after three seasons.
Graziano: Lawrence's team is leaking oil, and being without two of his top receivers will hurt him even if he does make it back from his shoulder injury to play this week. I'll throw one more in here, and it's a positive one. I'm curious to see how Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers finish this thing off. Mayfield is playing great for one of the hottest teams in the league, and if he musters a strong finishing kick and then wins a playoff game or two, he could be looking at a pretty big contract in the offseason. Imagine predicting that four or five months ago, when he was in a camp battle with Kyle Trask for the starting job!
What's your over/under on head-coaching jobs that will be open in the offseason?
Graziano: I put it at seven. Three are already open -- the Raiders, Panthers and Chargers -- and we expect an opening in Washington. I also think the Patriots are likely to move on from Bill Belichick, and people have had their eye on Chicago for a while, though the Bears are playing like a team that's trying to save its coach's job, so Matt Eberflus could potentially survive this.
That gets us to six right off the bat. Jets owner Woody Johnson just said Robert Saleh will be back, so that eliminates one of the teams I was watching. And I don't buy that Mike Tomlin is in trouble in Pittsburgh. So the remaining spots I'm looking at are all in the NFC South. Your thoughts there?
Fowler: I'm not buying the Tomlin smoke, either. Most of the vitriol is from people in Pittsburgh who have long wanted to move on. Contract extension talks could be telling, but an outright firing would greatly surprise me. And good call on Eberflus -- Chicago is 6-5 over its past 11 games and clearly playing hard for Eberflus. The questions there are more big picture, especially if the Bears opt to take a QB at No. 1 overall and want a new coach to shepherd him.
Working through this, I'm with you on seven as the over/under. At least one NFC South team and maybe one more surprise should get us there. It wouldn't shock me if Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Atlanta all kept their coaches -- but it also wouldn't surprise me if multiple spots from that group opened. The finish to the season will be crucial. But I'll say, for argument's sake, that one job opens there, leaving seven in total, with perhaps Dallas as a potential surprise. We can't determine the Cowboys' status yet, because Mike McCarthy's fate could hinge on the playoffs. And he has built a lot of goodwill at the star, and that can't be discounted.
Graziano: Dallas is interesting. You do hear people outside the organization speculating that McCarthy could be in trouble if the Cowboys don't make a playoff run, but I don't get that sense from the Cowboys themselves. Ownership seems impressed with the way McCarthy took control of the offense, altered it early in the season when things weren't going well and kept the team even-keeled all season. Could minds get changed if they go to Tampa Bay in Round 1 and get bounced? Sure, anything's possible. But minds would likely have to be changed -- I don't get the sense that Dallas is considering a change at this point.
Fowler: I know the Las Vegas job is open, but it almost doesn't seem like an opening at the moment. Interim coach Antonio Pierce has impressed owner Mark Davis with the team's discipline and physicality, and Vegas is playing inspired football. The interim coach dynamic is fascinating because the league has featured three impressive tenures in recent years -- Rich Bisaccia (Raiders, 2021), Steve Wilks (Panthers, 2022) and Pierce. That trio is a combined 17-14 in the interim roles, greatly improving the team's fortunes, yet Bisaccia and Wilks didn't get the permanent jobs, and now those franchises are looking for yet another coach. I wonder if Davis -- or Panthers owner David Tepper, for that matter -- looks at this coaching search through a different lens as a result.
Graziano: I expect Pierce to get a real look from the Raiders if they finish strong. He has proved the players will play hard for him, which is a huge part of this. Now, he'll have to sell Davis on the long-term vision for the franchise and his plan for implementing it. I don't know what Davis will do, two years after jettisoning a very popular interim coach in Bisaccia in favor of Josh McDaniels, but Pierce seems to have both a hunger and a knack for this. I wouldn't bet against him.
What's your top upset pick for Week 17?
Fowler: Dolphins (+3.5) over Ravens. We hit on this matchup earlier, and I'm going to steal all of your ideas, Dan. It seems like Miami is hitting its stride after a convincing win over Dallas. And several banged-up players along the Dolphins' offensive line should be getting healthier for the stretch run. Take away the flashy plays on offense, and the Dolphins still have the running game and the defense to win late in the year. Baltimore is capital-T tough right now, but I think the Dolphins will rise to the moment.
Graziano: Bengals (+7) over Chiefs. Remember when the schedule came out and this looked like one of the matchups of the year? Well, Burrow got hurt, and now it's Jake Browning (possibly without Chase) and a screen-happy Bengals offense that just doesn't look the same. That said, there wasn't much this past week that looked worse than the Chiefs. Cincinnati will have two more days of rest than the Chiefs will for this one. Burrow's not there, but the Bengals have a lot of players who have beaten the Chiefs before and take great pride in that. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense have enough issues right now that the Bengals can ugly this one up and steal it as they keep scrambling to make the playoffs.
What else are you hearing this week?
Graziano's notebook:
• The Commanders are a team to watch over the coming weeks for a number of reasons. With new ownership in place, changes are expected on the coaching staff and in the front office -- and potentially at quarterback. If the season ended right now, Washington would hold the No. 3 pick in the draft. If it loses its last two and Arizona wins one, it could get as high as No. 2.
There's some thought around the league that Washington is very interested in Caleb Williams, a Washington, D.C., native who's the strong favorite to be picked first overall. The Commanders, with a break here or there over the next couple of weeks, could find themselves in position to either draft Williams or trade up a spot or two to get him. Watch what they do with Sam Howell over the final two weeks. After he got pulled and replaced by Jacoby Brissett in the past two outings, there's a chance Howell sits the rest of the way.
• I mentioned that Mayfield could be in line for a big deal. He is on a one-year deal with the Buccaneers, who were so tight against the cap this season that they put void years even on their one-year deals. So Mayfield's contract technically runs through 2027, but it voids if he's still on the roster 23 days before the start of the 2024 league year. That void date precedes the franchise tag window, which means franchising Mayfield will be an option for the Bucs if they were to decide to go that way.
They'll have a $2.3 million dead-money cap charge on their books for Mayfield in 2024 regardless what they do, but that's nothing compared to the roughly $75 million in dead money they carried on their cap this season as a result of the Tom Brady contract and others (such as Donovan Smith). Tampa Bay should be out of cap hell in 2024, though it still has some big decisions to make on Mayfield and on star wide receiver Mike Evans, whose contract also voids at the end of this season. The Bucs have a $12.198 million 2024 cap charge for Evans regardless of whether they re-sign him.
• The Bucs and Rams are in very similar situations. Like the Bucs, the Rams elected to flood this year's cap with about $75 million in dead money charges so they could get clear of some old albatross contracts and be free to reset in 2024. Thanks to the way Matthew Stafford has played, as well as some helpful late-round draft picks (hello, Puka Nacua!), the Rams are also in position to make the playoffs in what was supposed to be their rebuild year. Both of these teams should be flush with cap space in 2024 and potentially very dangerous as playoff teams with the ability to spend to augment their rosters. It speaks highly of the Rams' and Bucs' front offices and coaching staffs that they've been able to field competitive teams in their big-pain salary cap seasons.
• I know Lawrence never misses games. I know he has bounced back in less than a week this season from knee injuries, ankle injuries and even concussion protocol. But the sprained AC joint in his right shoulder has him in real jeopardy of missing this week's game. Lawrence has never missed a game in high school, college or the NFL, but Jags coach Doug Pederson said he doubted Lawrence would be able to do much in practice Wednesday, and the team signed QB Matt Barkley off the Giants' practice squad -- a sign that they might expect to be shorthanded at the position this week.
Saints QB Derek Carr returned in week from an AC shoulder sprain earlier this season, but the severity of those isn't always the same. Watch the practice reports on Lawrence, who always seems to answer the bell but on whom the injuries are definitely piling up.
Fowler's notebook:
• At least five NFL teams will either switch quarterbacks or ride the hot hand with a backup this week, another example of this year's survival pool among teams with injured quarterbacks. Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell told reporters he's still deciding between Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall and Joshua Dobbs, who have all started at least one game this season. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is sticking with Mason Rudolph for a second week. In Washington, coach Ron Rivera is mulling Howell vs. Brissett and could come to a decision Wednesday. The same goes for the Giants on Tommy DeVito vs. Tyrod Taylor, and the Texans could opt for Davis Mills over Case Keenum to provide a spark if Stroud doesn't pass through concussion protocol (though he's trending positively).
Depleted teams are willing -- or even eager -- to try new options in impatient fashion, knowing that backups or third-stringers might give them one, maybe two good games before true colors show. Several teams I've talked to have been doing research on quarterback trends, trying to figure out if the past two years represent an anomaly or a new reality. One common thread: Consistent offensive line play is harder than ever to find, leading to more hits on quarterbacks.
• The biggest winners typically garner attention on the coaching and GM hiring circuit, and several figures could be poached from teams with double-digit wins so far. The Ravens will likely be a popular tree. Macdonald has done a bang-up job and will get heavy looks. Assistant coach Anthony Weaver has also done a strong job and has leadership qualities that might interest teams. It's hard to overlook what Todd Monken has done in his first year as playcaller there, too, and he has been close before, nearly landing the Green Bay job that went to Matt LaFleur five years ago. And on the personnel side, director of player personnel Joe Hortiz will be a key figure in searches; he has helped build one of the league's best rosters.
In Miami, OC Frank Smith should garner buzz as Mike McDaniel's top lieutenant. Co-director of player personnel Adam Engroff is among key figures for Chris Grier in Miami's impressive roster build in recent years and could get looks as a result. Former Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie is also on that staff. In San Francisco, assistant GM Adam Peters is widely considered one of the top candidates for a job, along with DC Steve Wilks. The 49ers' personnel pipeline also has Tariq Ahmad and Josh Williams from the league's accelerator program, which was proud to see former 49ers exec Ran Carthon get the GM job in Tennessee.
Detroit's Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn are well-known names in the mix, and Lions assistant GM Ray Agnew could finally get some credit as GM Brad Holmes' top evaluator. In Philly, OC Brian Johnson figures to get coaching looks, but the Eagles also have several emerging personnel/operations officials who have been featured in the league's accelerator programs, including Brandon Hunt, Charles Walls and Jeff Scott. They also have experienced execs, such as Jake Rosenberg (VP of football administration) and Dave Caldwell (former Jags GM). Most know Dan Quinn will be a hot coaching candidate out of Dallas, but not everyone knows personnel exec Will McClay, whom the Cowboys have worked hard to keep. And finally, watch for Cleveland executives Glenn Cook and Catherine Raiche on the interview circuit because of their quality work with the Browns.
• The Cowboys have sent information to the league office about Micah Parsons' struggles to draw offensive holding calls, a fact the player has highlighted with pictures on social media. Typically a team will send play sequences it might deem questionable to the league for review, and Dallas has done that here. Teams don't always get a detailed explanation on each call from the league, though. Parsons has 1.5 sacks in his past four games and clearly believes he should have more based on his ability.
• We've outlined many head-coaching candidates across the board, but let's add a new name to the fray: Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Dave Canales. Canales spent 13 seasons with Pete Carroll and has some Carroll-like qualities when it comes to optimism and energy. His track record with quarterbacks is strong, helping bring out the best in Russell Wilson, Geno Smith and now Mayfield. While some candidates like this might be a year or two away, this field is wide open, and sometimes teams want to get ahead on a skilled offensive guy before they reach full potential.