The Chicago Bears have landed the top pick in the 2024 NFL draft. The Bears received their selection from the Carolina Panthers in an offseason trade that gave the Panthers the first pick in the 2023 draft. And the Panthers lost their 14th game of the season in Week 17, giving Chicago the No. 1 spot for April.
But how will the rest of the order shake out? We projected all 32 slots with ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games and each team's average draft position in the simulations.
There already have been three trades involving first-round picks for April's draft. The Houston Texans own the Cleveland Browns' pick, while the Arizona Cardinals are also in line to have two selections in Round 1. The 2024 pick the Green Bay Packers received from the New York Jets in their offseason trade for Aaron Rodgers will be a second-round selection, not a first-rounder, because Rodgers (who is out with a torn Achilles) will not play 65% of the team's snaps this season.
Check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2024 NFL draft (updated Jan. 1):
1. Chicago Bears (via 2-14 CAR)
Average draft position: 1.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 100%
2. Washington Commanders (4-12)
Average draft position: 2.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 99.9%
3. New England Patriots (4-12)
Average draft position: 3.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 99.9%
4. Arizona Cardinals (4-12)
Average draft position: 4.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 68.4%
5. New York Giants (5-11)
Average draft position: 4.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 85.1%
6. Los Angeles Chargers (5-11)
Average draft position: 6.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 28.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.9%
7. Tennessee Titans (5-11)
Average draft position: 6.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 17.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.9%
8. New York Jets (6-10)
Average draft position: 8.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 91.8%
9. Chicago Bears (7-9)
Average draft position: 10.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 62.3%
10. Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
Average draft position: 10.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 70.3%
11. Las Vegas Raiders (7-9)
Average draft position: 11.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 38.5%
12. Minnesota Vikings (7-9)
Average draft position: 11.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 30.8%
13. Denver Broncos (8-8)
Average draft position: 14.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%
14. New Orleans Saints (8-8)
Average draft position: 15.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.2%
15. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
Average draft position: 16.2
16. Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
Average draft position: 16.9
17. Green Bay Packers (8-8)
Average draft position: 18.0
18. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
Average draft position: 18.6
19. Arizona Cardinals (via 9-7 HOU)
Average draft position: 19.2
20. Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
Average draft position: 19.5
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)
Average draft position: 19.8
22. Los Angeles Rams (9-7)
Average draft position: 22.8
23. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7)
Average draft position: 23.4
24. Houston Texans (via 11-5 CLE)
Average draft position: 25.3
25. Miami Dolphins (11-5)
Average draft position: 25.4
26. Buffalo Bills (10-6)
Average draft position: 26.0
27. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
Average draft position: 26.0
28. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
Average draft position: 26.1
29. Detroit Lions (11-5)
Average draft position: 26.5
30. Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
Average draft position: 27.7
31. Baltimore Ravens (13-3)
Average draft position: 30.4
32. San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
Average draft position: 30.5