Judging biggest overreactions for NFL Week 16

'Twas the night before Christmas, and all through the house, NFL fans were obsessing ... "Who's in? Who's out?"

As Week 16 of the 2023 season winds to a close, some playoff races look like they'll be won by a nose.

The Dolphins and Ravens and Lions are in, but for others, the margins look impossibly thin.

So enjoy, if you will, this week's overreactions, before you embark on your holiday distractions.

Jump to:
Bills over Dolphins in the AFC East?
Nacua over Stroud as OROY?
Pickett out in Pittsburgh?
Howell out in Washington?
Jaguars missing the playoffs?

The Bills are going to win the AFC East

Honestly, this could have gone either way. Had the Bills not come back to beat the Chargers on Saturday night, we probably would have found a way to bury them in this space. But come back and beat the Chargers they did, and now the Bills are 9-6 and still in the hunt for their fourth straight division title. They finish with a Week 18 game in Miami against the Dolphins -- a team they beat 48-20 back in Week 4. And while Buffalo gets what appears to be a layup against the Patriots in Week 17, the Dolphins have a tough matchup against the Ravens in Baltimore.

If the Dolphins -- who held on for a huge win Sunday against the Cowboys in Miami -- lose to the Ravens, and the Bills beat the Patriots, the Week 18 matchup in Miami will determine the division champ.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Miami has something special going on this season and could make a deep playoff run -- and I think there's a good chance it holds on in the division. All of that said, the Bills have won the division three years in a row, and the Dolphins went into the tank at the end of the 2022 season before backing into the playoffs. Buffalo knows what it takes to win the big games during this time of year, and the Dolphins are still learning.

Sunday was a strong sign that they're ready for this, but they still have to finish off the division race. The Dolphins are so much better at home than on the road that I have to think the Week 18 game still tilts in their favor, even though Buffalo won the first one. The Bills' defense is still missing a lot of key players and is still suspect overall. Heck, they almost lost to the Giff Smith/Easton Stick Chargers! But if it's a division title game in Week 18, then I don't think it's at all farfetched for the Bills to find a way.

Puka Nacua -- not C.J. Stroud -- will win Offensive Rookie of the Year

Nacua's 164 receiving yards in Thursday night's victory over the Saints were a season high (by 1 yard), and it was the fourth time this season that the Rams receiver has had more than 150 yards from scrimmage. The rookie fifth-round pick from BYU has 1,327 receiving yards on 96 catches. And now he needs 147 receiving yards over the final two regular-season games to have the most by a rookie in NFL history.

Nacua helped the Rams' offense weather the early-season injury absence of Super Bowl LVI MVP Cooper Kupp, and neither his role nor his production have suffered since Kupp's return. He is a huge part of the reason the Rams find themselves in playoff position with one of the youngest rosters in the league, in a season that many had pegged as a rebuilding year for L.A.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Stroud has missed the Texans' past two games while dealing with concussion symptoms. If he also misses the final two games of the season, then yes, I think Nacua has a chance. But there's no reason to believe that will be the case, and Stroud is in position to lead the Texans to the playoffs as a rookie quarterback.

It's very difficult to take this award away from a qualified QB. The example I always go back to is 2016, when Ezekiel Elliott should have been the Offensive Rookie of the Year, but the award instead went to his quarterback teammate Dak Prescott. It's not to the same extent it is in MVP voting, but quarterbacks do seem to have a leg up on other positions for this honor. And if Stroud -- who has delivered clutch comebacks and big-time numbers all season (3,631 passing yards, 20 TD throws and 5 interceptions) for the Texans -- comes back and finishes strong, he should hold off all challengers.

Someone other than Kenny Pickett will be the Steelers' starting QB next season

The Steelers kept their hopes of avoiding coach Mike Tomlin's first-ever losing season alive Saturday with a resounding victory over the Bengals. Pittsburgh's quarterback in that game was Mason Rudolph, who got the start only because Pickett is hurt (ankle) and backup Mitch Trubisky didn't play well enough to keep the job. Rudolph had 290 passing yards and a couple of long touchdown throws to George Pickens, while the Steelers racked up 397 total yards of offense -- a massive number for a team that has reached 400 yards in a game only once in the past three seasons.

It remains to be seen when Pickett can come back and whether he's still the starter when he does, but there's no doubt the offense under Rudolph on Saturday looked as good as it has all season. They scored their most points in a game (34) since 2021 and averaged their most yards per play in a game (6.8) since 2018.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

The Steelers are one of the most patient organizations in the entire league. They used a first-round pick on Pickett last season, and they'll have a new offensive coordinator and new system in place in 2024. So as Pickett heads into his third NFL season, I think they give him a shot and see if he can pick up and thrive in a new scheme.

The Steelers might look around for a veteran backup in case Pickett flops -- maybe one with a connection to whomever they bring in to run the offense. But I'd be surprised if they cut bait on a first-round quarterback after just two seasons.

Sam Howell has started his last game for the Commanders

For the second week in a row, Howell got benched in the second half with the Commanders way behind. And for the second week in a row, Jacoby Brissett replaced him and looked fantastic. Brissett was so good on Sunday that the Commanders wiped out a 27-7 Jets lead and took the lead themselves late in the fourth quarter. They lost on a 54-yard field goal, but it has been clear the past two weeks that the Washington offense is functioning better with Brissett at quarterback than it has with Howell. Brissett has played six drives the past two weeks, and the Commanders have scored touchdowns on five of them.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

So many changes are expected in Washington this offseason. We expect a new coach and maybe a new GM and front office structure. Without knowing who the new people in charge will be come March and April, it's impossible to know what they'll think of Howell as an NFL starting quarterback. The Commanders have a good chance to be picking in the top four or five of next year's draft, which could give them an opportunity to draft someone they consider a franchise QB of the future. If they did that, the rookie would likely start over Howell or anyone else who's still there next season.

As for the final two games of this season? Brissett is playing better, so as long as they're trying to win the games, he might be the better option. And it might even benefit Howell to sit for a couple of games and study the way Brissett operates the offense.

The Jaguars will miss the playoffs

At one point, the Jags were 8-3 and looked to be just about a lock for a second straight AFC South title. But after Sunday's 30-12 drubbing at the hands of the Buccaneers, Jacksonville has lost four games in a row to drop to 8-7.

Sure, the Jaguars remain in a three-way tie for first place in the division with the Texans and Colts, both of whom also lost Sunday. And yes, they have the tiebreaker over both and would win the division if they win their final two games. But quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who missed the past week of practice while in concussion protocol, left Sunday's game with a shoulder injury and might be too banged up to deliver what the Jags need the rest of the way. And that's especially true with an already questionable offensive line and wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones out with injuries.