It has been roughly nine months since the Kansas City Chiefs edged the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII, with Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker knocking a 27-yard field goal through the uprights with eight seconds remaining. Today, both teams are atop their respective conferences coming off their bye weeks.
The Chiefs are 7-2, with one of the league's top defenses and quarterback Patrick Mahomes boasting the league's second-best Total QBR (72.9). The Eagles are 8-1, with one of the top scoring offenses in the NFL (27.0 points per game) and receiver A.J. Brown already over 1,000 receiving yards.
The Eagles and Chiefs will meet on "Monday Night Football" (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+) in arguably the biggest matchup of the 2023 NFL regular season. ("Monday Night Football with Peyton and Eli" will also be on ESPN2, and ESPN Deportes will have the Spanish-language telecast. ESPN+ will carry all of it.)
To set up Eagles-Chiefs, we asked our analysts, experts and reporters 15 questions about the matchup. Which quarterback and offensive line have the advantage? How will each defense game plan to slow the offensive playmakers? Which team has the better chance to get back to the Super Bowl in February? We even asked whether the Eagles or Chiefs have the better rookie class, for the latest buzz on pending free agents for each franchise and whether a sleeper player could put up big numbers on Monday. And to cap it all off, we closed it out with picks to win.
Jump to:
Mahomes vs. Hurts | Game plan keys
Receiver questions | O-line edge
Tush push | Chiefs defense | Pass rush edge
Turnovers | Latest FA buzz | Standout rookies
Matchup sleeper | Super Bowl paths | Picks
Which quarterback has the best chance to put up big numbers in this matchup?
Dan Orlovsky, NFL analyst: I'll go with Patrick Mahomes. Both quarterbacks are obviously elite, but I just think the Chiefs' defense might limit Jalen Hurts a little more than the Eagles' defense will limit Mahomes. That's especially true for the secondary, since Philadelphia is allowing a 66.6% completion percentage to opponents, 21st in the NFL.
Plus, I know Chiefs coach Andy Reid has probably made good use of the bye week and schemed up ways for Mahomes to have success on Monday night.
How can the Chiefs limit Hurts' scrambling ability?
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Hurts has produced 127 yards on scramble attempts, converting 11 of his 27 rushes into first downs. I'm looking for Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to attack and contain the edges of the pocket with pressure schemes in critical game moments. Kansas City blitzes 31.8% of the time, ninth most in the NFL, and they have played zero-man on 8.3% of opponent dropbacks. Simply put, the Chiefs can't let Hurts extend plays with his legs Monday night.
How should the Eagles take away Travis Kelce in the game plan?
Bowen: The Eagles have played man coverage on 51.2% of opponent dropbacks this season, and they need a matchup for Kelce. He's seeing 31.9% of the Chiefs' targets and averaging 74.6 yards per game this season.
I would expect safety Kevin Byard to get reps here to start. But corners James Bradberry and Darius Slay could also be in the mix when Philly plays 2-man to get a safety over the top -- especially when Kelce is aligned to the backside of 3x1 sets. And when the Eagles do jump into their zone coverages, they must dedicate a player to rerouting Kelce at the snap.
What are the Chiefs saying about Rashee Rice's future as WR1, and do you expect them to be aggressive in the WR market this offseason?
Adam Teicher, Chiefs reporter: Rice is already being used like the Chiefs' WR1. He's playing more lately (104 routes since Week 5, second among Kansas City wideouts behind Marquez Valdes-Scantling), and he leads the team's wide receivers in catches (32) and yards (378). And when the Chiefs have needed a big play, they've gone his way most often when they're not looking to Kelce.
The Chiefs have invested at receiver since trading Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins, including drafting Skyy Moore in the second round in 2022 and trading for Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman Jr. at the deadline in back-to-back years. But they've yet to see returns other than with Rice (second-round rookie) and, on occasion, Valdes-Scantling (2022 signing) making plays. Besides Hardman -- who left and returned -- every one of their current WRs arrived after Hill departed.
So yes, they may decide they need to invest at the position again this offseason. Names like Tee Higgins, Mike Evans, Calvin Ridley and Michael Pittman Jr. could be available, but the Chiefs will also have cap decisions on some of their own free agents at other positions.
How much does Dallas Goedert's absence impact the Eagles' pass game, and who could get more looks with him out?
Tim McManus, Eagles reporter: It's a blow to the offense, no doubt, but Philadelphia has a number of playmakers who can help make up for the loss. Expect a bulk of Goedert's workload to fall to the receivers while he's out with a fractured right forearm.
During his five-game absence last season with a fracture in his shoulder, Quez Watkins saw a spike in usage, with 27 of his 51 targets coming over that stretch. Julio Jones and Olamide Zaccheaus could be the biggest beneficiaries this time around. And this feels like an opportunity to get running back D'Andre Swift more involved in the passing game. He averaged 5.1 targets per game during his time with the Lions compared to 3.8 so far this season in Philly.
Which offensive line has been more dominant this season?
Seth Walder, analytics writer: Though the Chiefs rank first in pass block win rate (77.4%) and the Eagles fifth (64.9%), I would say Philadelphia has the better overall offensive line. That's because the Eagles are much better in terms of run blocking, where they rank first (76.6%) in win rate compared to the Chiefs at 19th (70.0%).
Then there is the Chiefs' penalty problem (hello, Jawaan Taylor). They commit holding on 2.6% of their plays (second-highest rate in the NFL) compared to the Eagles at 0.5% (lowest). Lastly, that the Eagles can execute the tush push with such a high rate of efficiency is no trivial matter, and while Hurts plays a big role in that play, the offensive line does, too.
What is the secret to the Eagles' tush push?
McManus: It's part technique -- the ground game is orchestrated by two of the best in the game in offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland and center Jason Kelce -- and part brawn, with guard Landon Dickerson (6-foot-6, 332 pounds) and tackles Lane Johnson (6-6, 325 pounds) and Jordan Mailata (6-8, 365 pounds) leading the charge. And it certainly helps to have a quarterback who is a former powerlifter and can squat 600 pounds in Hurts.
Put that all together, and you have a play that is borderline unstoppable, with Philadelphia converting 20 of its 22 attempts (91%) when needing one yard. The Eagles have also scored six touchdowns on sneaks this season, while the rest of the NFL has six combined.
What is the secret to the Chiefs' dominant defense this season?
Teicher: There are several reasons, but perhaps the biggest is their young players in the secondary have grown up. Four of their regular defensive backs were drafted last year and are playing well, particularly cornerback Trent McDuffie, who is having a Pro Bowl-worthy season. Kansas City has limited opponent QBs to 6.1 yards per pass attempt, third lowest in the NFL.
The Chiefs are so versatile in the secondary and on the defensive line that they can move players around to different spots to get favorable matchups. Spagnuolo has a lot of different ways to attack an opposing offense, and he mixes tactics often.
The Chiefs are tied for third in the NFL with 31 sacks on defense. Is their pass rush actually better than the Eagles this season?
Walder: No, no, no. While the Chiefs have one more sack than the Eagles' 30, Philadelphia has superior pass rush overall. Led by players like Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat and Jalen Carter, Philadelphia has a 53.7% pass rush win rate (fifth best) -- compared to the Chiefs way down at 35.5% (27th).
So why do the Chiefs have more sacks, even if it's a slight difference? One reason is that they use blitzes and simulated pressures at higher than average rates, and both are effective tools. Kansas City has recorded a 9.9% sack rate when blitzing and 15.1% sack rate using simulated pressure this season. Don't get me wrong, they deserve credit for the sacks and the schematics. But if you're looking for the best pass rush in this game, it will be wearing green.
Which team is more likely to win the turnover battle?
Aaron Schatz, NFL analyst: Mahomes and Hurts each have eight interceptions this season. FTN Data charting assigns Mahomes 12 interception-worthy throws and Hurts 11. That's pretty close. The Eagles have nine fumbles, and the Chiefs have eight. Again, pretty close.
So let's flip to defense. The Chiefs have a couple more forced fumbles and one more forced interception. Still pretty close.
The real difference here is probably sacks -- the plays most likely to lead to fumbles. The Chiefs have a better adjusted sack rate this season on both offense and defense. Hurts is likely to take more sacks than Mahomes, and thus is more likely to fumble. That means the Chiefs are more likely to win the turnover battle.
What are you hearing on some of the two teams' top pending free agents?
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL reporter: Let's start with the Chiefs, whose big-money negotiations are basically on hold until after the season. Kansas City is focused on this championship run. The Chiefs tried with defensive tackle Chris Jones in the 2023 offseason but couldn't find a sweet spot. Now Jones will be tough to keep. A franchise tag would cost around $32 million, which is steep for a one-year pact. And he might push $30 million per year as a free agent. L'Jarius Sneed is a top corner in free agency and will also do well, but here's to expecting Kansas City to try to retain him sometime before mid-March. Sides had preliminary talks in the preseason.
As for the Eagles, Jason Kelce is truly a year-to-year proposition. Should he want to return, the Eagles will be glad to pay him a one-year deal at the top of the center market, assuming he maintains his strong play. But he won't decide whether to play again until sometime this winter. While the Eagles were open to extending running back D'Andre Swift's contract upon trading for him in late-April, he appears set on entering free agency. Running back is a team-friendly market right now due to immense talent, but Swift's big-play ability -- along with this season's proof that he's durable -- will get him paid.
Which team had the better draft pick in 2023? Better overall class?
Jordan Reid, NFL draft analyst: With Jalen Carter in the running for Defensive Rookie of the Year, he is the easy choice for best overall draft pick (No. 9 overall) between the two teams' classes. He was known for his ability to generate pressure at Georgia, and that has carried over into the NFL. His 22.2% pressure rate as an interior defender is the highest in the league. (On the Chiefs' side, second-rounder Rice has been reliable in the receiving corps.)
The Eagles already arguably had the best roster in the NFL, and GM Howie Roseman brought in even more depth with this 2023 rookie class that's seeing a significant amount of snaps. Carter, guard Tyler Steen and safety Sydney Brown have each received plenty of playing time through the midway point of the season.
Who is your favorite sleeper to put up big numbers in this matchup?
Eric Moody, fantasy/sports betting writer: I'll go real deep with Eagles tight end Albert Okwuegbunam. He's only rostered in 0.1% of ESPN fantasy leagues, but he could be a difference-maker as the Eagles look to fill the Goedert void.
Goedert has averaged 5.7 targets per game this season, and Okwuegbunam has averaged 13.5 fantasy points per game in regular-season games over his career when he has had four or more targets. And in a game with a 45.5-point total, he may get more run with Goedert out. At 6-6 and 258 pounds, Okwuegbunam ran the 40-yard dash in 4.4 seconds at the 2020 combine, so he has the size and speed to make plays.
Which team has the better chance to get back to the Super Bowl in February?
Field Yates, NFL analyst: The Eagles are the pick for me. While it might require more effort for Philadelphia to win its division than Kansas City -- Dallas is a superior team to any would-be challenger in the AFC West -- the NFC is a much weaker conference on the whole. There will be a different level of strain put on Philly in its first playoff game, and given that I think the Eagles will hold onto the NFC's No. 1 overall seed and get a bye, it'd only take one win to put them at home in the NFC Championship Game.
Who will win the game?
The ESPN Football Power Index's simulations have the Chiefs winning 60.5% of the time and by an average of 3.6 points. And the line at ESPN BET is Chiefs -2.5, with an over/under of 45.5 points. Here are some expert picks:
Stephania Bell, fantasy analyst: Chiefs 31, Eagles 24
Bowen: Eagles 27, Chiefs 23
Mike Clay, NFL analyst: Chiefs 25, Eagles 24
Fowler: Chiefs 27, Eagles 20
Dan Graziano, national NFL reporter: Chiefs 24, Eagles 20
Kimberley A. Martin, national NFL reporter: Eagles 30, Chiefs 27
Moody: Chiefs 31, Eagles 28
Jason Reid, senior Andscape writer: Chiefs 27, Eagles 24
Lindsey Thiry, national NFL reporter: Eagles 34, Chiefs 28
Walder: Eagles 24, Chiefs 23
Seth Wickersham, NFL writer: Eagles 19, Chiefs 17