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senior NFL national reporter- Jeremy Fowler is a senior national NFL writer for ESPN, covering the entire league including breaking news. Jeremy also contributes to SportsCenter both as a studio analyst and a sideline reporter covering for NFL games. He is an Orlando, Florida native who joined ESPN in 2014 after covering college football for CBSSports.com.
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senior NFL national reporter- Dan Graziano is a senior NFL national reporter for ESPN, covering the entire league and breaking news. Dan also contributes to Get Up, NFL Live, SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, Sunday NFL Countdown and Fantasy Football Now. He is a New Jersey native who joined ESPN in 2011, and he is also the author of two published novels.
Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season is here, and league insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano are breaking down the biggest questions, latest news and notable buzz of the week. Plus, they picked out which teams are on upset watch and which players should -- or shouldn't -- be in your fantasy football lineups.
Which AFC contenders are in the most danger of missing the playoffs in a tight race? Where will Kirk Cousins, one of the top pending free agents, end up playing in 2024? And what are the most impactful injuries of the season so far? It's all here, as Dan and Jeremy answer big questions and empty their notebooks with everything they've heard heading into Week 11.
Jump to a topic:
AFC playoffs | Cousins in '24 | Impact injuries
Upset picks | Fantasy tips | Latest buzz
Which AFC contender is in the most danger of missing the playoffs?
Graziano: Well, after Monday night, I have to say Buffalo. Too many mistakes, too many injuries and too much to overcome. If you're chasing Team X (Miami), and Team X beat Team Y (Denver) by 50 points, you can't lose at home to Team Y on "Monday Night Football."
We're through 10 weeks, which is a representative sample, and the Bills have the same record as the Colts and Raiders. Do we feel good about the Colts' and Raiders' chances? Plus, the Bills still have to play games at Philadelphia, Kansas City and Miami and will face the Cowboys at home.
Fowler: Yeah, Dan, with Buffalo's looming schedule, making the playoffs is hardly a sure thing, which seemed implausible three months ago. Finding consistency on offense just seems hard for the Bills right now, and the injuries have worn down the defense a bit.
Graziano: In a league where the coach-quarterback combo is king, it's hard to rule out Sean McDermott and Josh Allen given their track record. But the Bills have an uphill climb. And the Tuesday scapegoat firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey -- for a team that ranks near the top of the league in every conceivable offensive statistical category -- is a sign that team leadership is panicking and doubting itself.
Fowler: Cincinnati is another team that is messing around and might be left out. This is a team that could win the Super Bowl or miss the playoffs, and neither scenario would shock me. Like Buffalo, the Bengals have a tough remaining schedule with Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and Kansas City on deck. As much as the Steelers and Browns might be capped offensively, they are underachieving far less than Cincinnati, which ranks 24th in total offense and 32nd in run offense. The Bengals' ceiling is higher, but it's time to reach it before it's too late.
Graziano: I just trust in the track record of this Cincinnati team, which started slow last season then went on a 10-game winning streak that didn't end until the AFC Championship Game. But if the Bengals lose in Baltimore on Thursday, I will definitely start to worry about them. What chance do you give Houston of running down Jacksonville for the AFC South title?
Fowler: Well, Houston has Jacksonville's full attention. The Texans are a major threat, and their offense has been better. Their schedule is manageable too, as they face only two teams with a winning record (Jacksonville and Cleveland) over the final eight games. And Houston coach DeMeco Ryans has inspired with his leadership. I'm still rolling with Jacksonville as the more seasoned, complete team until proven otherwise. But an AFC South considered perennially weak isn't so much anymore.
Get out your crystal ball: Where will Kirk Cousins be playing in 2024?
Fowler: I've started asking teams about this, and Atlanta comes up fairly often. The Falcons have improved their roster and need a quarterback to bring it all together. What coach Arthur Smith does on offense meshes with Cousins' ability to utilize play-action. Cousins would find comfort in Atlanta's talented roster of playmakers, similar to what he had in Minnesota. The chance to win is there. And though Cousins will be expensive, he is going on his fifth NFL contract (excluding franchise tags from the Washington days) and will turn 36 in August. A team set to have $36 million in cap space in 2024 should be able to handle his potential deal.
Graziano: The Falcons are a good one, Jeremy. My sleeper is Green Bay. Jordan Love doesn't look like the answer, and while the Packers are as patient as any team in the league, they're also used to winning. Cousins knows the Packers' offense because it's a derivative of Kyle Shanahan's scheme from their time together in Washington, and Cousins and Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur could work well together.
I recognize this is out of left field and completely different from any way the Packers usually operate. But Love's "extension" includes a palatable $5.5 million in guaranteed salary in 2024 and nothing thereafter. If they get to the end of this season and decide Love isn't the guy moving forward, the Packers might not feel like drafting another guy and waiting for him to develop. And even if they do that, Cousins could be the solution in the meantime for a team with a promising young wide receiver group.
Fowler: Yeah, these last eight games are crucial for Love. He is a really good thrower of the football with a bit of that gunslinger mentality that makes him turnover-prone. Operating more cleanly down the stretch could help chart a path in 2024 with Green Bay.
Do we totally take the 49ers off the table at this point? It seems like Brock Purdy is the long-term answer, with a rookie contract that's friendly for roster building. But the thought of Cousins and Shanahan reuniting is still intriguing to many around the league.
Graziano: Without a doubt, but Purdy would have to really fall apart for that to be a consideration. And this 49ers offense seems to set up Purdy very well for success. He's leading the league in QBR! Factor in all the high salaries the Niners already have, along with looming contract extension decisions on guys like Brandon Aiyuk, Chase Young and Talanoa Hufanga, and the fact that Purdy's 2024 cap number sits at $1.004 million probably keeps the Niners from looking to spend big in the free agent QB market.
Which single injury will have the biggest impact on a team's second half?
Graziano: Aaron Rodgers is the easy call here, because the Jets have an elite defense, an elite wideout and an elite running back, and they can't score a touchdown. This would probably be a playoff team if Rodgers didn't tear his Achilles in Week 1. And while he continues to make completely unprovable assertions about a December return, you wonder if the season will be lost by then anyway. Honestly, it might not make sense for Rodgers to come back and risk an injury that puts any portion of the 2024 campaign in jeopardy, because the Jets have to be thinking about next year when assessing their Rodgers window at this point.
Fowler: Either New York team applies here. But man, the Giants look unwatchable due in part to Daniel Jones' extensive injury history. Jones showed enough promise last season to earn a four-year, $160 million extension, which feels like an albatross right about now. Jones' torn ACL in his right knee in Week 9 punctuated what is becoming a cratered season. That game against the Raiders was supposed to symbolize hope after Jones had missed a few weeks with a neck issue, and Tyrod Taylor played admirably in his place.
Now both are hurt, and by the time Taylor returns, the season might truly be lost. Not that this Giants construct would have pushed for the playoffs with Jones, but the Giants also wouldn't be in the conversation for the league's worst team through 10 weeks.
Graziano: Absolutely. You want to talk about impact? How about the Giants bottoming out and ending up with USC quarterback Caleb Williams after all this? It's in no way farfetched. Jones has a ton of guaranteed money next season but nothing after that, and I fully expect the Giants to press the reset button at the position if they end up with a high enough pick to draft a franchise-changer. I know team president John Mara doesn't want to change coaches again after only two years, and letting coach Brian Daboll see what he can do with a quarterback he gets to draft sounds like a nice outcome from a lost season.
Fowler: Right. Even the largest NFL deals typically have escape hatches after two years, so no reason to panic. The quarterback class is loaded enough where the Giants -- if picking somewhere in the top five -- have to consider their options there.
I also expect the loss of Cousins to affect Minnesota down the stretch. That's taking nothing away from the "Passtronaut," Joshua Dobbs, one of the NFL's most compelling stories. He has been balling out, but he isn't at Cousins' level, and when things get tight in December, can coach Kevin O'Connell keep working his offensive magic through attrition?
What's your top upset pick for Week 11?
Fowler: Steelers (+3.5) over Browns. So you might have heard by now that the Steelers have been outgained on offense each week and still find ways to win. But they've found something with the running game behind Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris, who have combined for 340 yards and three touchdowns on 58 rushes over the past two weeks. Those sound like Cleveland rushing numbers. Starting first-round right tackle Broderick Jones has revamped the Steelers' offensive line, a spot where Cleveland is beat up right now.
Graziano: Rams (+1) over Seahawks. Quarterback Matthew Stafford will be back from his right thumb injury for this game, and his Rams are a major thorn in the Seahawks' side. Los Angeles beat them soundly in Week 1. And while Seattle won both games last year in a rare down season for L.A., Sean McVay is 9-5 against the Seahawks in his career as the Rams' coach. The Rams just seem to be sort of a bad matchup for Seattle.
What's your fantasy football call of the week?
Graziano: I would try very hard to leave any and all Bears running backs on the bench this weekend -- even if Khalil Herbert returns from injury and regardless of how well D'Onta Foreman has run the ball in his place. The Bears like handling their run game by committee; and barring further injury or other unforeseen circumstance, that's the way they plan to handle it moving forward. Rookie back Roschon Johnson has shown something as a pass-catcher, so in weeks when Chicago falls behind early, it's possible he has some PPR-league value. But I've asked directly, and my understanding is the Bears have no plans to commit to one of these guys over the others.
Herbert's return will help with the overall speed of the group, but to think he's just going to take over a full workload and send Foreman to the bench is improbable. Add in the fact that the Lions -- the Bears' Week 11 opponent -- are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs and you're better off with other options than the Bears at RB in Week 11.
Fowler: Consider starting Vikings running back Ty Chandler this week. Minnesota's run game has been a bumpy ride, but Chandler acquitted himself well on Sunday against New Orleans with 15 rushes for 45 yards and a touchdown. The stage is set for Chandler to produce against the Broncos, who rank last in rushing defense. Starter Alexander Mattison is in the concussion protocol, and Cam Akers is out for the season with an Achilles injury.
What else are you hearing this week?
Graziano's notebook:
• I will go ahead and predict that Bailey Zappe will be the Patriots' starting quarterback when they come back from their bye week to play the Giants in Week 12. Sunday's game in Germany felt like a breaking point for Mac Jones, and sources I'm talking to think coach Bill Belichick could use the two-week break to make a change and get Zappe ready to start. Jones has been a massive disappointment this season, regressing in key areas and repeating too many mistakes week in and week out.
The Pats are almost certain to be looking for a new quarterback in the spring, but in the meantime, they feel like Zappe has shown enough in practice to be viable. It's not 100 percent, and few people know enough to accurately predict what Belichick will do. But it sounds like there's a solid chance Zappe will be the guy for Week 12 and maybe the rest of the season.
• Bears quarterback Justin Fields threw again in Monday's practice, and the team is optimistic he'll be able to return from his thumb injury and play this week. Yes, this time last week the Bears were holding out hope that he could return in time for their Week 10 game, and he did not. But Sunday will have been 10 days since their Thursday night game against the Panthers, and the hope is that Fields' grip strength has improved to the point where he can throw the ball without the injury affecting him. The Bears still want to see Fields get through the week and make sure he can be confident and accurate with his throws, but as of Tuesday, they were feeling optimistic that this could be the week.
• It also sounds like the Dolphins are expecting to have running back De'Von Achane back this week, the first week he is eligible to come off injured reserve. He probably didn't need the full four weeks, as it turns out, to heal from his knee injury, but the Dolphins were intentionally careful with their lightning-quick rookie. They now believe they could have him back for the final eight games, starting Sunday against Antonio Pierce's red-hot Raiders.
Fowler's notebook:
• Here's what I was told about the Patriots' quarterback situation this week: Decisions are still "up in the air," but it wouldn't surprise if Zappe gets more time, either subbed in or as the starter. So to your point, Dan, this seems to be trending toward Zappe. The frustrations with Jones surfaced earlier this season, and about a month ago, his grip on the job became shaky due to poor decision-making and struggles under pressure. New England decided to roll with Jones, who gave the Patriots a chance in multiple games. But the situation appeared to reach a boiling point in Germany.
Zappe is likely the next man up, but it feels like anything is possible over the next eight weeks. Malik Cunningham and Will Grier can't be totally overlooked. The Pats' quarterback room could look far different in 2024, when New England could have a top-five pick in a draft that features several talented passers.
• Buffalo's firing of Dorsey was abrupt, hitting social media roughly 12 hours after the Denver loss. This one is complicated, because Dorsey has done some good things with the offense's overall attack, and it's not his fault that Bills players were dropping passes and fumbling Monday night. But a few factors led to this. The Bills felt that their offense was stronger and better positioned than a year ago, with the line finally solidified and the addition of tight end Dalton Kincaid, who has superstar potential. At least on paper, running a consistent offense should have been easier. Instead, everything felt harder, with Buffalo falling from second to seventh in total offense and second to eighth in scoring offense from 2022 to 2023.
Not all of that falls on Dorsey, of course. A bigger issue is that Allen looks like he's losing his swagger a bit. And a reeling team simply needs a shake-up before it's too late -- especially in light of the point about Allen. Dorsey is a bright coach who interviewed well on the head-coaching circuit in January. He's capable. He just wasn't able to elevate and reinvent Buffalo's attack.
• With the Jets sticking with Zach Wilson through his recent struggles, it's worth reminding that this has essentially been their plan throughout the season. As New York brass evaluated free agent quarterback additions early in the campaign, they made clear that they would ride with Wilson, and some came away from those conversations believing the Jets sought nonthreatening options, letting Wilson get a real shot without looking over his shoulder.
That helps explain the signing of Trevor Siemian, who hasn't had a steady NFL role since his Denver days in 2017. The Jets eschewed chances to sign Carson Wentz and Joe Flacco (who were both very interested in playing for New York) or swing a trade. The Jets invested a lot in Wilson, and they appear set on giving him every opportunity to succeed -- even if it costs them in the playoff picture.
• One team-quarterback marriage to watch is Jared Goff and the Lions. Goff is putting together another Pro Bowl performance for the 7-2 Lions, and 2024 is his last year under contract (at $26.65 million, well below his market value). Goff and the Lions have had talks about the future, but no deal is in the works during the season. In the offseason, however, the Lions will likely up their efforts to secure Goff's long-term future. He's only 29, and the Lions know asking Goff to play the final year of his current deal is untenable.
This is a marriage that has worked wholeheartedly, with coach Dan Campbell telling me before the season, "When you have a quarterback you believe in, why would you ever move on?"
• On Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson's chances to play Thursday night, a source said it would be an uphill battle. But knowing Hendrickson, he will likely at least try to get out there. Hendrickson suffered a hyperextended knee, and his MRI came back negative. It's probably a long shot, but there's always a chance.
• Several factors led to Denver's defensive resurgence over past month: following game plans tightly with good communication (the goal Monday night was to keep the Bills' Allen in the pocket with no second-chance opportunities); the return of safety Justin Simmons from injury; the insertion of Mike Purcell in the lineup as a nose tackle alongside 3-technique tackle D.J. Jones; going with the young guys at pass-rusher (Nik Bonitto, Baron Browning); and needing time to implement the standing defense with coordinator Vance Joseph's wrinkles. Oh yeah, and Pat Surtain II is ridiculously good. The Broncos clearly thought the 70-point Miami game was an aberration, and they have showed it.