The Playbook, Week 11: Cowboys, Bills among most likely to win

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 11, which kicked off Thursday night with the Bengals at the Ravens.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Odds by ESPN BET.)

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Dallas Cowboys -10.5 @ Carolina Panthers

Lineup locks: Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, Adam Thielen

• Has there been a bigger enigma in fantasy this season than Pollard? The veteran back played on 69% of snaps in Week 10, but was limited to 55 yards on 15 carries (he had zero targets). Despite hefty playing time in a high-scoring offense, Pollard has been held below 10 fantasy points in five of his past six games and hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 1. Incredibly, he's been a fantasy disappointment despite being the only player in the NFL with 12-plus touches and 55-plus yards in 100% of his games this season. On the plus side, he has an elite matchup this week against a Panthers defense that has allowed the second-most RB fantasy points.

• Are we buying Brandin Cooks as a fantasy starter following a 9-173-1 receiving line in Week 10? In the wise words of Dr. Evil, "How 'bout no?" Check this out: Cooks' big game accounted for 26% of his season total in targets, as well as 35% of his receptions, 51% of his yards, 33% of his touchdowns and 40% of his fantasy points. Yes, Cooks has 14-plus fantasy points in three of his past four games, but he's been under 7.0 in every other game, including a 1-7-0 showing against the Eagles in Week 9.

Over/Under: 42.2 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 88% (Highest)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns -1
Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Jerome Ford, Diontae Johnson, Amari Cooper

• The Steelers backfield is trending up, but Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren both remain RB2/flex options, as opposed to lineup locks. Harris, who is RB13 in fantasy PPG over the last four weeks, has managed 17-plus points and scored one touchdown in three of his last four games. Warren is RB18 during the same span and has 110-plus scrimmage yards in two straight contests. The backfield split limits the upside of both backs and a step back in fantasy output is probable against a Cleveland defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest RB fantasy points this season.

• We're downgrading the Cleveland offense with Deshaun Watson done for the season, but not much should change in the backfield. The Browns averaged 154.6 rushing yards and totaled five rushing scores during Watson's five full games, compared to 139.5 yards and five touchdowns during four games with either Dorian Thompson-Robinson or PJ Walker under center. That's almost identical fantasy output. Ford has been a top-25 scorer at running back in seven of his last eight outings and has 43 touches over his last two games. He remains a fringe RB2. Kareem Hunt has scored in five consecutive games, although he's averaging only 12.8 touches and 47.8 yards per game during the span. He's a low-ceiling flex.

Over/Under: 35.7 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Steelers 51% (14th highest)

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions -7.5
Ford Field, Detroit
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Moore, Sam LaPorta

• Montgomery returned from injury in Week 10 and handled 12 carries and zero targets on 24 snaps. He still ended up with a solid fantasy day (116 yards, 1 TD), but was clearly behind Gibbs (14 carries and five targets on 37 snaps). Montgomery's minimal receiving work limits his fantasy outlook, but there is enough room for both of these backs in Detroit's elite run offense. Both are lineup locks in a good matchup against Chicago. Revenge game!

Over/Under: 47 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Lions 72% (7th highest)

Los Angeles Chargers -3 @ Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, Keenan Allen

• Jayden Reed is fresh off a strong 5-84-1 receiving line in Week 10, but the rookie isn't yet a viable fantasy starter. Reed was limited to five targets and has been at or below six targets in six straight games. In fact, Sunday marked only his second game over 12.5 fantasy points -- and he was only on the field for 53% of offensive plays (after playing on 37% in Week 9). Christian Watson, meanwhile, was limited to a 2-23-0 receiving line on a team-high seven targets and has been under 7.0 fantasy points in four straight games. No Packers wideouts make for a safe fantasy start, even in a great matchup against the Chargers.

Over/Under: 45.9 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 64% (8th highest)

Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans -5
NRG Stadium, Houston
Sunday 1 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: C.J. Stroud, James Conner, Marquise Brown, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, Trey McBride

• Kyler Murray returned from a torn ACL in Week 10 and looked like his old self. Murray had a solid fantasy day (17.3 points) and -- most importantly -- delivered with his legs (6-33-1 rushing line). Murray did defer two short-yardage rushes to Clayton Tune (including a 1-yard rushing score), but his overall body of work suggests he belongs back in the weekly QB1 discussion.

• Over the last two weeks, Noah Brown has posted receiving lines of 6-153-1 (six targets) and 7-172-0 (eight targets). Of course, the big games came with either Robert Woods (Week 9) or Collins (Week 10) sidelined, and Brown has benefited from WR absences in four straight games. Brown's strong play will keep him in the WR rotation, but he may be hard-pressed to see more than a few targets per game once everyone is healthy. Brown should only considered a flex this week if Collins remains sidelined.

Over/Under: 50.7 (Highest)
Win Probability: Texans 75% (5th highest)

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars -7
TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Travis Etienne Jr., Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram

• Trevor Lawrence simply hasn't been a good fantasy quarterback this season. Lawrence's best weekly finish is QB8 (Week 1), and he has registered only two additional finishes better than QB15 since. Lawrence's rushing yardage is up from last season (from 17.1 to 24.8 per game), but he has no rushing scores (he had five in 2022) and has seen a big dip in passing volume (16th in pass attempts after ranking seventh in both 2021 and 2022) and scoring (nine passing TDs after 25 in 2022). Lawrence is best left on benches against a Titans defense that has yet to allow anyone to clear 22.2 QB fantasy points this season.

Over/Under: 40 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 54% (12th highest)

Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins -13.5
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Jacobs, De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Jaylen Waddle

• Achane is expected to return from IR this week. The rookie averaged 172.7 scrimmage yards per game while scoring a total of seven touchdowns during his last three active games. That level of production suggests he should be locked into lineups if activated, though note that he has cleared 12 touches only once (Week 3) and could be limited in his first game back. Raheem Mostert has been held below 14 touches in three straight games (and his volume could decrease further with Achane back), though he continues to find the end zone (13 times in nine games) and remains, at worst, a flex option.

Over/Under: 41.6 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 81% (3rd highest)

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders -9.5
FedExField, Landover, Maryland
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Sam Howell, Saquon Barkley, Terry McLaurin

• Brian Robinson Jr. went off for another big game in Week 10, and this time it was mostly via the pass. Robinson registered six targets, six receptions and 119 yards, all of which were easily career highs (his prior bests were four targets, four receptions and 42 yards). Robinson's track record suggests the big receiving day is an outlier and it's concerning how little he did on the ground (8-38-0). He's scored a touchdown in eight out of 10 games and has been fantasy's RB1 twice, but he's also finished as RB15 or lower in every other week. Robinson remains a boom/bust fringe RB2.

Over/Under: 36.8 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Commanders 74% (6th highest)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers -11.5

Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Chris Godwin, George Kittle

• Brock Purdy rebounded from a mini slump with a 23.8 fantasy point total in Week 10 -- his second-highest total of 2023. Purdy has now reached 20 points four times and has finishes among the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks in six out of nine weeks. Purdy has been super-efficient (his 9.3 YPA leads all QBs) and he's actually added a little value with his legs (107 yards and two scores). He's a streamer this week against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the second-most passing yards and fifth-most QB fantasy points this season.

Over/Under: 48.9 (4th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 77% (4th highest)

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills -7
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Breece Hall, Stefon Diggs, Garrett Wilson, Dalton Kincaid

• James Cook has fallen out of lineup-lock status. The second-year back was benched for an extended period after an early-game fumble Monday and ended up being out-snapped by Latavius Murray for the first time this season. Cook still managed 120 yards on 14 touches, though he was held out of the end zone. He has scored just twice in 10 games this season. Cook is fourth among all running backs in yardage (837) this season, but 20th in carries (120) and 22nd in targets (28). His elite efficiency keeps him in the RB2/flex discussion. Perhaps the team's change of offensive coordinator to Joe Brady will lead to more volume.

Over/Under: 38.3 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Bills 83% (2nd highest)

Seattle Seahawks -1 @ Los Angeles Rams
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf, Puka Nacua, Tyler Lockett

• We're still at least one week away from the return of Kyren Williams, which means Darrell Henderson Jr. remains on the RB2 radar. The veteran back is coming off a dud (35 yards on 12 touches), but he had 66 yards and a score on 19 touches and 85 yards on 15 touches in his prior two games. Royce Freeman will remain a factor, but Henderson leads his running mate in snaps (98-77), carries (40-33) and targets (7-1) over the last three games and remains the better fantasy option. Both backs get a boost this week against a Seattle defense that has allowed the sixth-most RB fantasy points. Seattle allowed 20-plus fantasy points to Mitchell in Week 9 and Robinson in Week 10.

Over/Under: 45 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Rams 53% (14th highest)

Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos -2.5
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Javonte Williams, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson

• Believe it or not, Joshua Dobbs is QB8 in total fantasy points this season (QB14 in PPG). Dobbs has reeled off three consecutive top-eight fantasy outings, which includes a game while still playing for Arizona and one in which he didn't even start. Dobbs has now produced 16-plus fantasy points in seven out of 10 games. He's been a big asset with his legs, with six-plus carries in five straight contests and a rushing score in four straight. Denver's defense is much improved, having not allowed more than 17.3 QB fantasy points since Week 4, but Dobbs is nonetheless a viable streamer this week.

• Alexander Mattison (concussion) is in doubt. If he's sidelined, Ty Chandler will lead the Minnesota backfield and join the flex conversation. Even before Mattison went out in Week 10, Minnesota was leaning toward a committee, with both Mattison and Chandler having handled exactly eight carries each. Chandler doesn't have much experience (34 career touches), but he has minimal competition for touches (Kene Nwangwu is next up on the depth chart), so 15-plus touches is certainly attainable. This is a great matchup, as Denver has allowed at least 134 RB scrimmage yards in seven of its last eight games, including 191 to Buffalo in Week 10.

Over/Under: 42.3 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 59% (11th highest)

Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs -2.5

Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, D'Andre Swift, Isiah Pacheco, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Travis Kelce

• This game is loaded with lineup locks, but one notable omission is Dallas Goedert (forearm), who is expected to miss a few games. Goedert was sidelined for five games last season and the Eagles' TE target share dipped to a lowly 10%. Jack Stoll (eight targets) and Grant Calcaterra (eight) accounted for all 16 of the TE targets -- and neither was a fantasy option. Both remain on the roster and figure to joined a three-headed committee with Albert Okwuegbunam, who might actually be the best "dart throw" of the group in the deepest of leagues.

• With Goedert out last year, the Eagles boosted the target share of No. 3 WR Quez Watkins to 16% (4.8 per game), which could mean more work for Olamide Zaccheaus and Julio Jones in Week 11 and beyond. Of course, neither of those two has established themself as the team's clear No. 3, so this is a situation best avoided across the board.

Over/Under: 49 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 53% (13th highest)