Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
The Matchups Map provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, rating all 32 opposing defenses in terms of how favorable the matchup is for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced over the most recent five weeks. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Adj. FPA, or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how many points the defense allows compared with players' weekly averages. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers). The Buccaneers did an outstanding job of keying on rookie Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis in Week 10, holding him to 5.98 fantasy points and the team to 209 total yards, but their defense has otherwise struggled mightily to defend the pass of late. Jared Goff (Week 6), Josh Allen (Week 8) and C.J. Stroud (Week 9) each breezed past 20 fantasy points against the Buccaneers, and Purdy shares similar pass accuracy metrics to those three (seventh-ranked 68.8% completion, 12th-ranked 13.4% off-target and 13th-ranked 2.0% interception rates).
Others to like: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (vs. Los Angeles Chargers); Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (at Houston Texans).
Matchup to avoid: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (at Baltimore Ravens). Couple the short week with Tee Higgins' (hamstring) second straight game absent and Burrow faces an uphill battle to a fantasy-relevant Week 11 point total. The Ravens have held quarterbacks to the fewest fantasy points per pass attempt this season (0.23) -- and by a wide margin, at that -- and they held Burrow to 15.38 points in their Week 2 meeting, a game in which Higgins not only played but caught both of Burrow's two touchdown passes. Burrow is a borderline top-10 positional play at best.
Sunday QB to avoid: Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Cleveland Browns).
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Darrell Henderson Jr., Los Angeles Rams (vs. Seattle Seahawks). Among the tougher calls among running backs with favorable matchups is Henderson, who was held to 5.5 PPR fantasy points in his most recent game and has played 56% of the Rams' offensive snaps while handling 58% of their running backs' touches in three weeks filling in for the injured Kyren Williams (ankle). That modest Week 9 score, however, can be at least partly attributed to the offense's struggles with Matthew Stafford (thumb) absent. Fortunately, Stafford is scheduled back for Week 11, and the opposing Seahawks have seen opposing running backs total 114.9 PPR fantasy points in just the past three weeks alone.
Others to like: James Conner, Cardinals (at Texans); Ty Chandler, Minnesota Vikings (at Denver Broncos).
Matchup to avoid: Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Philadelphia Eagles). Fully rested coming out of their bye week, the Eagles' defense should be as ready as ever to contain the run -- and they were outstanding at doing so during the season's first half. Only one running back has exceeded 15 PPR fantasy points against the Eagles all year and three have been in double digits, the latter easily the league's fewest. Most importantly for this matchup, which seems fantasy favorable because of the likely high score and competitive nature, the Eagles have been especially tough against running backs when the score is close. Their 0.59 PPR fantasy points per touch afforded to the position when the score is within a field goal is second fewest.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Rashee Rice, Chiefs (vs. Eagles). Here's where that Chiefs-Eagles matchup gets interesting. While the Eagles have been stout defending the run this season, against the pass they've been anything but. The Eagles have seen eight different wide receivers reach the 20-point PPR threshold this season, tied with the Washington Commanders for the league's most, and four of them came in the team's three games leading into the bye. Additionally, slot receivers, a role Rice frequently occupies, have been especially problematic for Eagles defenders, as Cooper Kupp (Week 5), Jamison Crowder and Jahan Dotson (Week 8) and CeeDee Lamb (Week 9) accrued a large amount of their production from the slot in recent meetings.
Others to like: Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers (vs. Buccaneers); Darius Slayton/Wan'Dale Robinson, New York Giants (at Commanders); Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Titans).
Matchup to avoid: Cooper Kupp, Rams (vs. Seahawks). It's a tough week for declaring clear "sits," as the Seahawks (No. 3 in Adjusted FPA against WR1s the past five weeks), Chiefs (1st) and Broncos (4th) all shape up as scary matchups for the big names, but the opposing Kupp, A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson (if cleared to play) are tough to bench based upon their roles/usage. Still, all are valid, cautionary notes if you roster any of the three, but here we'll focus on how well the Seahawks have fared defending all wide receivers of late. Since Week 4, only one wide receiver has scored 15-plus PPR fantasy points against them -- Tyler Boyd (16.8) in Week 6. This is why the aforementioned Henderson could take on a larger Week 11 role, while Kupp, and perhaps Puka Nacua, might struggle to put up big scores.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Trey McBride, Cardinals (at Texans). The Texans have been giving up big scores to the least likely of tight ends of late, with Tommy Tremble (Week 8), Cade Otton (Week 9) and Tanner Hudson (Week 10) each scoring 8.4-plus PPR fantasy points and the group totaling 40.7. Notably, the trio totaled three touchdowns on red-zone targets, the most afforded by any team in those situations over that time. McBride saw three red-zone targets in Week 8, a signal that he's a threat in scoring position. More importantly, he's seeing a lot more work since Zach Ertz (quadriceps) landed on injured reserve, playing 78% of the offensive snaps with a second-most-at-the-position 28 targets the past three weeks.
Matchup to avoid: Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys (at Carolina Panthers). Outside of Sam LaPorta's 19.7 PPR-fantasy point, two-touchdown Week 5, tight ends have rarely been the focal point in games against the Panthers' defense. No other tight end has scored in double digits against them, and the 1.56 points-per-target average that the Panthers have afforded the position this season is 10th-fewest. Tony Pollard and the Cowboys' running backs are the ones who match up best against the Panthers for Week 11, so Ferguson will probably take more of a back seat for this one.