We're on to the sixth weekend of the 2023 NFL season, and we're sure you are fully prepared for the loaded Week 6 slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal on Sunday. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen making five predictions about how things could play out on Sunday, including some player props. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news that you might have missed.
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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Predictions | Latest buzz
Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Sunday's winners
Was the Cowboys' loss to the 49ers an offensive blip -- or a sign of what's to come?
Looking back, I'm kicking myself for not seeing Dallas' offense more clearly through the first four games. On the surface, everything looked great for the Cowboys. They had scored the fourth-most points through four weeks, but points can be driven by defense -- both in terms of defensive scores and strong field position -- and that was the case for the Cowboys.
At the time, they ranked only 10th in expected points added per play despite having played the weakest schedule in the league. Now they rank 15th in EPA per play on offense, and I think it's fair to be concerned about their ability to keep up with the Chargers on Monday night -- and with the 49ers and Eagles as serious conference championship contenders.
Who will win the big-time trench battles this week?
We've got some epic edge vs. tackle matchups in Week 6. The Browns' Myles Garrett vs. the Niners' Trent Williams pits two established superstars against each other. The Cowboys' Micah Parsons vs. the Chargers' Rashawn Slater should be an interesting matchup after Parsons was held in check by the 49ers and Slater's pass block win rate is down so far this year (81%, a big drop from 96% in a small sample last year and 90% in 2021).
But I'm also very intrigued to see Houston's Will Anderson Jr. vs. New Orleans' Ryan Ramczyk. Anderson ranks fifth in pass rush win rate at edge (29%), and Ramczyk is eighth in pass block win rate at tackle (93%). But Anderson has just one sack on the season.
Can Terrel Bernard fill the void at linebacker in Buffalo?
After the Bills lost Tremaine Edmunds in free agency and Matt Milano to a Week 5 leg injury that has sidelined him indefinitely, you might think there's nothing left for the Bills at linebacker. But that's not the case, because Bernard -- a 2022 third-round pick out of Baylor -- is playing well. He ranks second in run stop win rate among linebackers at 54% (and is playing far more than Cleveland's Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who ranks first), has two picks and two sacks. He'll be even more important now with Milano down.
Has Baker Mayfield eliminated a weakness?
One reason Mayfield struggled in 2021 and 2022 is that his sack rate ballooned to 9% in each of those seasons. Suddenly, the problem is gone. The Buccaneers quarterback is sitting at 3%, the lowest rate in the league outside of Patrick Mahomes -- who is basically a magician when it comes to avoiding sacks.
This change has happened despite Mayfield playing behind an average offensive line, as the Bucs rank 18th in pass block win rate. He has slightly sped up his throw time, from 2.82 seconds to 2.73 this year. But I point it out because moves like this are quite rare; quarterbacks have a lot of ownership over their sack rates, which means they tend to be stable. To see Mayfield improve in this regard is remarkable.
What's different for Clelin Ferrell in San Francisco?
Ferrell disappointed in his four seasons in Las Vegas, as he never reached five sacks in a season and had a single-digit pass rush win rate in three of the four years. But playing in San Francisco, Ferrell's pass-rushing numbers look much better. Sure, he has no sacks, but his 18% pass rush win rate is above average for an edge rusher.
What's the difference? One factor is he's getting a much better get-off, checking in at 0.77 seconds to cross the line of scrimmage vs. 0.95 seconds last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That's a big change! While scheme can play a role, it's pretty rare to see players make that kind of jump in get-off speed, which seems fairly stable across seasons.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you should pick up -- and can start this week
Logan Thomas, TE, Washington Commanders (30.7% rostered)
Thomas' roster percentage increased by more than 20% this week, but he's still available in most leagues -- and worth an add. He led the Commanders in targets (11), receptions (9) and receiving yards (77) in Week 5 en route to 20.7 fantasy points. If you're struggling at tight end and want upside, you should start Thomas. Although the Falcons' defense does not give up a lot of points and opponents have struggled to move the ball against them, it does have one weakness: The unit allows the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts (25.7% rostered)
Downs has scored 13 or more fantasy points in two of his past three games, and Gardner Minshew started one of those and came on in relief of Anthony Richardson in the other. He is an excellent route runner who can separate and make tough contested catches. The Jaguars' defensive front ranks 25th in pass rush win rate, which should give Minshew and the rookie receiver plenty of time to torch slot cornerback Tre Herndon. Jacksonville's defense allowed 24 fantasy points to wide receiver Stefon Diggs last week, and Downs could be the next wideout to put up a big number against that unit.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers (18.4% rostered)
Miles Sanders is dealing with a groin injury and a shoulder injury right now, and Hubbard continues to siphon away snaps and touches from him in the Panthers' committee. Carolina has a bye next week, so it wouldn't surprise if Sanders misses Sunday's game against the Dolphins. He did not practice on Wednesday. The Dolphins are heavily favored, which means Carolina could rely on Hubbard as a receiver out of the backfield. Over the past two seasons, Hubbard has averaged 0.8 fantasy points per touch.
D'Onta Foreman, RB, Chicago Bears (13.3% rostered)
It's not looking good for Roschon Johnson to get cleared from the league's concussion protocol before the Bears' game against the Vikings, and Khalil Herbert is dealing with a high ankle sprain. Foreman will play a role in the Bears' backfield regardless of whether Johnson is active, though. His fantasy outlook in Week 6 is bright since Chicago's offensive line ranks second in run block win rate and should be able to create running lanes against Minnesota's defensive front.
Gardner Minshew, QB, Indianapolis Colts (2.9% rostered)
Fantasy managers reeling from Richardson landing on injured reserve should stop what they are doing and add Minshew. With Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce and Downs as his top receivers, he faces a Jaguars defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. And since he started 20 games for Jacksonville over two seasons, Minshew will be motivated to perform well against his old team.
Also, if the Rams' Matthew Stafford is available in your league, he's worth a spot start. The veteran has averaged 290.2 passing yards, has Cooper Kupp back alongside Puka Nacua and will be facing the Cardinals' defense, which has given up the third-most fantasy points per game to QBs.
Bowen: Five sneaky predictions for Sunday's action
Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud will finally throw an interception
Stroud has yet to throw a pick on 186 pass attempts this season, and he's playing high-level football. But this Saints defense will be a test for the rookie on Sunday. New Orleans has seven interceptions this season, tied for third most in the league, and the secondary features ball-hawking defenders with high-end man coverage traits. The Saints play man 60.5% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, so watch for them to play both Cover 1 and 2-Man -- with safeties looking to cut or rob crossers -- against Stroud and the Texans.
Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts will catch a red zone touchdown
Pitts has yet to score a touchdown this season and has only three in his career, but this is really about the coverage structure of the Washington secondary. The Commanders play a lot of split-safety defense in the red zone, aligning in two-high on 56% of coverage snaps. This is where the Falcons can scheme for Pitts to create voids in the coverage on inside seam routes.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford will throw for more than 300 yards
This is a good matchup for Stafford and the Rams' pass-catchers against the Cardinals. Stafford has thrown for over 300 yards in three of five games this season, and the return of Kupp really boosts Sean McVay's route tree. This should be a volume game for Stafford, as the Cards' defense is allowing a completion percentage of 72% (fourth highest in the league) and 7.8 yards per attempt (sixth most).
Titans running back Tyjae Spears will rush for over 50 yards
Spears has yet to top the 50-yard rushing mark in a game this season, and the Ravens are allowing just 3.6 yards per carry, the sixth fewest in the NFL. However, Spears has 74 rushing yards over his past two games, and he has six rushes for 10 or more yards this season. With Spears developing a more defined role in the game plan, he can hit this total with some perimeter schemes and a couple of manufactured touches, given his second-level elusiveness.
Bears receiver Darnell Mooney will catch a touchdown
Mooney has failed to log a reception in two of four games played this season, and his lone touchdown grab was back in Week 1 against the Packers. But against a Vikings defense that leads the NFL with a blitz rate of 54%, quarterback Justin Fields will have opportunities to take some vertical shots. Minnesota has allowed nine catches of 20 or more yards when sending pressure, tied for the most in the league.
Fowler: What I'm hearing as we near kickoff
Deshaun Watson's two-game absence due to a rotator cuff contusion has sparked plenty of intrigue, as the Browns anticipated he would be ready to play this week. Here's my understanding: Watson rehabbed diligently to get back this week and made some improvement, but the Browns don't want this to linger or become an issue throughout the season for their franchise quarterback.
The Browns and Watson want full function in the shoulder, and he's not there yet, but the full expectation is he will be. His velocity has suffered a bit through the process, but that will come back, too. So, it's PJ Walker for this week, and the Browns will reassess after the 49ers game.
As a side note, quarterbacks are judged by their performance, injured or not. Just consider Watson's predecessor in Cleveland, Baker Mayfield, who played most of the 2021 season with a major shoulder injury (he had a torn labrum, a much different injury than Watson's). He tried to play through it, played poorly and wasn't absolved from criticism. Quarterbacks and compromised shoulders don't mix.
The Giants are decimated by injuries yet again, but not all hope is lost on offense. Daniel Jones (neck) is out, but the team believes it has one of the league's best backups in Tyrod Taylor, who made some impressive throws in the joint practices with the Lions that I saw in the summer. His mobility should help him navigate a struggling offensive line.
And Saquon Barkley (ankle) could provide a boost. People I've talked to are optimistic, as of Saturday morning, that Barkley plays Sunday. No firm determination yet, but chances are better this week than last, and he's had a good week of practice, no setbacks.. The bigger issue is left tackle Andrew Thomas (hamstring), who would solve some problems for this struggling offensive line. He's missing his fifth consecutive game. I'm told he plans to be back soon, sometime over the next few weeks.
Emmanuel Forbes is a player to watch in Washington. The first-round rookie corner has had a few rough weeks, and coach Ron Rivera was noncommittal about his role Sunday at the Falcons. My sense: Forbes plays a role this week but maybe not as prominently as in recent weeks, as the team tries to lessen the burden on him. Forbes is immensely talented with plus ball skills, but the Commanders knew putting him in the starting lineup could come with bumps -- he's a chance taker, and he's gotten burned a few times as a result.
With the normally potent Chiefs offense still finding its rhythm in a 19-8 win over Denver, it was Kansas City's defense that showed dominant flashes. The Chiefs held Russell Wilson to fewer than 100 yards passing for the third time in his career, and over the past five games, Kansas City has given up a total of 67 points. Defensive leaders are totally comfortable picking up the slack until the offense gets going.
"We want to be the best defense in the league," linebacker Nick Bolton told me. Added linebacker Drue Tranquill: "We've relied on the offense, and rightfully so. But we want to be the reason [we win]." The Chiefs and GM Brett Veach have built a low-key winner on that side of the ball. Eleven Kansas City draft picks start on defense, led by Chris Jones, the only first-rounder of the bunch. Tranquill was a steal in free agency at one year, $3 million.