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senior NFL national reporter- Jeremy Fowler is a senior national NFL writer for ESPN, covering the entire league including breaking news. Jeremy also contributes to SportsCenter both as a studio analyst and a sideline reporter covering for NFL games. He is an Orlando, Florida native who joined ESPN in 2014 after covering college football for CBSSports.com.
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senior NFL national reporter- Dan Graziano is a senior NFL national reporter for ESPN, covering the entire league and breaking news. Dan also contributes to Get Up, NFL Live, SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, Sunday NFL Countdown and Fantasy Football Now. He is a New Jersey native who joined ESPN in 2011, and he is also the author of two published novels.
Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season is here, and league insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano are breaking down the biggest questions, latest news and notable buzz of the week. Plus, they picked out which teams are on upset watch and which players should -- or shouldn't -- be in your fantasy football lineups.
What's going on with the Patriots' and Giants' lackluster offenses? Could we see any quarterbacks get traded before the Oct. 31 deadline? And what does Jonathan Taylor's extension mean for running back contracts going forward? It's all here, as Dan and Jeremy answer big questions and empty their notebooks with everything they've heard heading into Week 6.
Jump to a topic:
Pats' offense | Giants' offense
QB trades | Taylor contract
Upset picks | Fantasy tips | Latest buzz
What are you hearing on the rough offensive start for the Patriots?
Graziano: I was in New England on Sunday for the team's shutout loss to the Saints and had a bunch of conversations with people in and around that situation last week. They thought quarterback Mac Jones was showing improvement in some key areas over the first three weeks of the season, but the past two games have been complete catastrophes, leaving them to wonder whether Jones really can evolve into the team's franchise quarterback. Coach Bill Belichick said after the game Jones was still his QB going forward, and I doubt they make a change this week. But I also don't think his leash is going to be very long. And if this season continues the way it's going, I definitely see the Patriots being in the quarterback market next offseason.
In the meantime, the issues are all over the offense. The line hasn't been healthy. The Pats don't have dynamic playmakers at the wide receiver position. They went into Sunday's game against New Orleans intending to lean on tight end Hunter Henry and running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott, but Henry was targeted twice and did not catch a single pass, and those backs combined for 45 rushing yards on 16 carries.
Fowler: Yeah, Dan, the revolving door at offensive line has been a major concern. The Patriots were missing bodies in training camp, and since the season began, they've been out key players each week. Leading into Week 6, guards Michael Onwenu and Cole Strange have ankle and knee issues, respectively. Strange's replacement last week, rookie Atonio Mafi, was a converted defensive lineman at UCLA and is sort of learning on the fly. So Jones has little chance based on the continuity in front of him. Couple that with Jones' pressing and the lack of speed on the outside, and 34-0 happens.
Graziano: It's clear that whatever plan the Patriots are making for their offense during the week isn't carrying over into game day. If there's a name to watch on the offense that could theoretically spark something, it's sixth-round rookie receiver Demario Douglas. But they've struggled to get him the ball, and he left Sunday's game with a head injury (it's unclear how soon he'll be back).
Fowler: I spoke to two defensive coaches who have played against New England, and they both pointed to the Pats' need for a run-pass balance -- getting the ball out fast with maximum protection up front and downfield shots off play-action. Well, when the Patriots can't run the ball and fall behind early, defenses get after them. They simply aren't built to sling the ball around 40 times per game. You mentioned Douglas, and he's very high on opponents' scouting reports right now, along with Kendrick Bourne. But the Patriots simply don't have a burner over the top to keep defenses honest. Maybe 2022 second-round pick Tyquan Thornton's eventual return (shoulder) will help.
Graziano: The offense is likely to look better this week just because the Patriots are playing the Raiders. But there's a lot to fix, and I'm not sure they have the time or personnel to fix it. The Pats aren't afraid of making an in-season trade. They made one last week to plug a hole at cornerback, bringing in J.C. Jackson. But the problem is there isn't one spot they could add to and suddenly make things all better. It's ugly up there.
What about the Giants? Can they get right on offense?
Fowler: The Giants have having similar problems, especially up front. Where are you with the state of affairs there?
Graziano: When I was checking in on teams before the season started, there were two that seemed a little more worried about how the offense might work than I expected. One was the Bears, and the other was the Giants. I think New York believed things were still unsettled at the wide receiver position but hopeful it could lean on Saquon Barkley and Darren Waller while the offense figured that out.
Well, the Giants got destroyed by the Cowboys in their opener, Barkley got hurt in the second game (ankle), the offensive line has been an injury-riddled mess and quarterback Daniel Jones seems to have regressed under the constant pressure. And Jones left the Giants' most recent game because of a neck injury. If there's a light at the end of the tunnel for the Giants, it's that Barkley and line reinforcements will be back at some point, and the offense will look better. What you worry about is the damage already done to the team's confidence (not to mention its win/loss record) in the meantime.
Fowler: The Giants are trying to keep morale up, to your point. Their schedule has been brutal, and they've been without two of their best players in Barkley and Andrew Thomas for much of the season. But the Giants miscalculated an offensive line that's clearly overmatched right now. There's no easy fix.
Plus, yards after the catch are impossible to find, with Darius Slayton the only receiver among their top skill players to average more than 11 yards per reception. Parris Campbell and Wan'Dale Robinson average less than 6 yards per catch, which is a bit shocking. Rookie Jalin Hyatt has big-play ability, and while he's considered raw, it might be time to showcase him more. And the defense just looks slow and uninspired right now. Maybe that's what Miami, the Giants' Week 5 opponent, does to teams. But it's concerning, and now the Giants have to travel to Buffalo in Week 6.
Who's the quarterback most likely to be traded before the deadline?
Fowler: The unsexy answer is Case Keenum, the quintessential backup. Teams that experience attrition in their quarterback room will most likely call Houston, given that Davis Mills is entrenched as the No. 2 there behind C.J. Stroud.
A slightly sexier answer might be Ryan Tannehill or Andy Dalton. If the Titans lose a few more games before the deadline, perhaps Tannehill makes sense as a bridge starter for a team whose starter goes down. The Jets could be on the radar here, though Zach Wilson has settled into his role over the past two weeks. And Dalton played well in his Week 3 spot start for Carolina. Otherwise, most teams appear set at quarterback. Desmond Ridder had a nice bounce-back for Atlanta in Sunday's win over Houston, and Russell Wilson is essentially untradable.
Graziano: That's the thing, right? You don't often see starting quarterbacks traded in-season. I actually think it's more likely the Titans trade Malik Willis than Tannehill. But those aren't the kinds of answers you're looking for here.
Tannehill and Minnesota's Kirk Cousins are the two established veterans whose teams might, theoretically, have reason to deal. They aren't signed past this season, and for various reasons it's possible (even likely) their teams move on to other options for 2024 and beyond. But in Cousins' case in particular, it's important to remember his deal includes a no-trade clause, and all indications are that he and his family are happy in Minnesota. Another team might need to find a way (extra money, plausible chance at a Super Bowl, etc.) to make it worth his while if it wanted to acquire him before the Oct. 31 deadline.
We'll see whether some contenders' quarterback situations change as a result of injuries here over the next couple of weeks, which is always possible. But right now, the best answers to this question are guys like Keenum or Washington's Jacoby Brissett -- if any quarterbacks are moved at all.
What does the Jonathan Taylor extension tell us about the next wave of RB contracts?
Graziano: Well, it tells us that nobody should be getting their hopes up. Taylor's deal accomplished the tricky task of repairing his relationship with the Colts to the point where he's playing for them again. But other than that, and in terms of the market, it really doesn't do much of anything. At three years and $42 million, it's basically an inflation-adjusted version of the three-year, $36.6 million deal that Nick Chubb signed with the Browns two years ago.
Taylor got a $10.25 million signing bonus, a $1.74 million salary this year and $8.314 million in guaranteed salary and bonus money for 2024. Of his $11.98 million salary for 2025, $7.15 million is guaranteed for injury only and converts to a full guarantee in March 2024. The Colts could technically cut Taylor healthy in the 2025 offseason having paid him $27.454 million for two seasons of work.
But let's say they don't cut him and he plays through 2025, earning all of his per-game roster bonuses for that season. From 2023-25 on this deal, Taylor will earn $33.306 million. If he had done nothing, and the Colts had franchise-tagged him in 2024 and 2025, he would have earned (checks notes) about $33.3 million. I'm glad he's back and I'm glad he's happy, but this deal isn't any kind of market-mover.
Fowler: Yeah, Taylor's deal isn't a tectonic shift for running backs, but it definitely helps a market that had been all but deserted the past two years. Three star running backs were resigned to their franchise-tag fate this summer. Putting any deal of significance on the board is a win, especially at an average of $14 million per year on a shorter term (three years).
Your point about the cash flow equaling the franchise tags is valid, but I'm not sure Taylor could have done much better. He had to play the villain for months to get this far, and my sense is that if Barkley or Josh Jacobs were offered this same deal back in July, they would have taken it. Taylor knew the Colts were likely to tag him in 2024, so if he were to get hurt again over the next two years, he wouldn't have the same security that he has now. He was coming off an injury-riddled 2022 that affected his place in the running back pantheon, so all things considered, this actually feels pretty solid.
What's your top upset pick for Week 6?
Fowler: Commanders (+2.5) over Falcons. Washington will come with an edge after an ugly loss to the Bears on Thursday night, and it will be ready after 10 days to prepare. Quarterback Sam Howell has proved deft in big moments, and the Commanders still have one of the best defensive fronts in football. If they can contain Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson, they will be able to dictate the pace of the game.
Graziano: Patriots (+3) over Raiders. Yeah, that's right. It's bold as hell to pick a Patriots team that has scored three total points the past two weeks and is going on the road to face a team coached by a former Belichick assistant. I just don't think very much of the Raiders, who are somehow 2-3 despite failing to exceed 18 points in any game so far this season. At some point, someone on the Patriots has to step forward and say enough is enough. Even if that's the defense this week, I think Jones & Co. will find ways to score against the Vegas D. The past two weeks have to be rock bottom for the Patriots, meaning there's nowhere to go but up.
What's your fantasy football call of the week?
Graziano: Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco to the moon! The Broncos' defense has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs by far, along with a league-worst 821 yards to RBs. (As an aside, the Giants are second at 679, so a James Cook bounce-back week is incoming, as well.) The Broncos have allowed 12 total touchdowns to running backs -- eight on the ground and four through the air. Only three teams have allowed more running back receptions than the Broncos' 30. And only two have allowed running backs to gain more receiving yards.
On a short week with a banged-up Travis Kelce and a wide receiver group still searching for clarity and definition, expect the Chiefs to lean on the hard-running Pacheco against the league's softest defense.
Fowler: Try to acquire Vikings receiver K.J. Osborn if you don't have him. Osborn's profile heightens with Justin Jefferson headed to injured reserve (hamstring). He can step into Jefferson's "X" receiver role, and he's comfortable in Kevin O'Connell's system after catching 60 passes last season as a complementary target to Jefferson. T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison will likely be the feature pass-catchers in this offense for the next month, but with the Vikings' uneven running game, expect Osborn to get chances.
What else are you hearing this week?
Fowler's notebook:
• Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is "absolutely" rehabbing hard this week with hopes of playing Thursday against Denver despite an ankle injury, per source. "He hates missing games," a source close to him said. Kelce practicing Tuesday was a good sign, and it appears he was moving well. His durability has been impressive, playing at least 15 games in each season since 2014. He's dedicated to staying on the field, using team trainers and a personal performance trainer/physical therapist to get ready each week. So while the Chiefs will determine whether he can handle the short turnaround, Kelce is putting himself in position. And he clearly knows how to play hurt, catching a touchdown Sunday in Minnesota with a heavily taped foot and ankle.
• The spotlight is on Minnesota after Jefferson was moved to injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Sitting at 1-4 with their best player out, what will the Vikings do next? Minnesota's well-known competitive rebuild will be tested as the trade deadline approaches. There's talent on the roster that would be attractive to teams, and I've had multiple teams point out to me in the past that Danielle Hunter's one-year, $17 million bridge contract with Minnesota features $10 million in base salary, reasonable for interested teams to absorb at a prorated rate given his immense talent, should the Vikings engage. Hunter has started fast with six sacks in five games.
These are the calculations the Vikings can make with valuable players if they choose. It's hard to expect the Jets to give up heavy capital for Cousins if Wilson's play continues to improve, after they already sent a package of picks to the Packers for Aaron Rodgers. But there's a lot of time before the Oct. 31 deadline. And then there's the Jefferson element; if Minnesota is, say, 2-7 when Jefferson is eligible to return, does he sit longer? The best player at his position has a looming contract that needs to be worked out in the offseason. There are a lot of layers for GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and O'Connell to sort through.
• One Super Bowl-winning receiver is on the move (Van Jefferson to the Falcons), and another one may be on the way. The Jets are considering options with Mecole Hardman Jr., including a potential trade. Hardman has 4.3-second speed in the 40-yard dash, which usually brings value. He signed a one-year, $4 million deal with upside to $5.5 million this offseason but has played just 22 snaps through five games, so he would welcome a move. The Raiders, Lions, Vikings and Browns were among teams that had some interest during free agency, and perhaps a reunion with Kansas City wouldn't be out of the question.
• The Bears believe quarterback Justin Fields has seen the field maybe better than he ever has over the past two games. And they believe when Fields' footwork is clean, that guides his eyes, and good things happen in the pocket. Fields also said after Thursday night's win over Washington that he reminds offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to get DJ Moore the ball as much as possible. After 15 targets for Moore through Weeks 1-3, he has 19 over the past two weeks -- with Fields' play exploding during that span, throwing for 617 yards and eight touchdown passes.
Graziano's notebook:
• Since we're talking trade deadline, it feels pretty obvious from talking to teams around the league that the 1-4 Broncos are open for business. They fielded a lot of calls on their wide receivers in the offseason and stood pat, in part because injuries thinned them out at the position. But teams I talk to believe the Broncos will listen to offers for Jerry Jeudy or Courtland Sutton, as well as players on defense. They're not interested in parting with star cornerback Pat Surtain II, as they see him as a building block, and nobody's trading for Wilson's contract. But the Broncos in Sean Payton's first season don't look very good and could use some more picks to kick-start a rebuild. Expect to hear some prominent names in trade speculation out of Denver over the coming weeks.
• What about teams potentially adding at the trade deadline? The Panthers have been looking for receivers, and I expect Buffalo to poke around for defensive help given all of the injuries the team has suffered to prominent players on that side of the ball. The Eagles could stand to add some help in the secondary, and GM Howie Roseman is never shy about trades.
Don't rule out the possibility of the 49ers, as tremendous as they already look, adding a player if they think it can make a difference. The Niners have the biggest of goals for this season, and they were aggressive last year when running back Christian McCaffrey became available. Remember the Rams adding Von Miller at the deadline a couple of years ago? If an opportunity for an impact guy like that comes along -- at the right cost -- don't sleep on the idea of the rich getting richer in San Francisco.
• The Jefferson injury reminded some folks around the league that Jefferson never signed the contract extension he was expected to get this past offseason. In fact, the wide receiver extension market never materialized, perhaps because it was waiting to see where Jefferson set the top of it. CeeDee Lamb, Michael Pittman Jr. and Tee Higgins -- all of whom were expected to get extensions this offseason -- are still waiting. Lamb and Jefferson are first-round picks whose teams have fifth-year options on them for 2024, so they aren't going anywhere and are still likely to get extended at some point. Brandon Aiyuk in San Francisco fits that description, as well, assuming the Niners aren't too capped out at other positions to extend him.
But with Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith among the receivers who will be extension-eligible for the first time next offseason, there's a backlog right now that could result in the top of the receiver market getting very high, very soon. As in, well into the $30-plus million per year range. And that's especially true if Higgins and Pittman actually hit free agency and have multiple teams bidding for their services.