One year later, let's regrade the 2022 NFL trade deadline, which included deals for running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receiver Calvin Ridley, edge rusher Bradley Chubb and more.
I'm a big believer that if we're going to be in the prediction and evaluation business, we should be updating our calls and tracking our results. We judge general managers on their results -- there is plenty of that below -- so it seems only fair to see how our initial trade grades look 12 months later, updating how the moves have affected (and will affect) the teams involved.
To be clear, I am judging each team's results thus far and the updated expectation for the future. This is different from judging the process. For example, I still believe the Eagles' trade for pass-rusher Robert Quinn made a lot of sense, and if I went back in time, I'd recommend doing it again. It didn't work out, though, and that's the part I'm writing about below.
Let's check in on 12 of the biggest trades from last season, starting with my mea culpa on a blockbuster deal. We'll go in order of position, grouping together the handful of running backs and wide receivers who were dealt:
Jump to a trade:
Chosen | Chubb | Claypool
Hines | Hockenson | McCaffrey
Quinn | Smith | Robinson
Ridley | Toney | Wilson
RB Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers
San Francisco 49ers got: McCaffrey
Carolina Panthers got: 2023 second-round pick, 2023 third-round pick, 2023 fourth-round pick, 2024 fifth-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 20
Original grade for the 49ers: C-
New grade for the 49ers: A-
Let's not bury the lead: I'm taking a huge L here. 49ers fans on Twitter/X have been kind enough to remind me of that fact pretty much every day since the deal came out. And do you know what? They were right.
In 19 games as a 49er, including the postseason, McCaffrey has rushed 298 times for 1,494 yards (5.0 per carry), caught 84 passes for 693 yards and a recorded 21 total touchdowns. His advanced rushing production numbers are solid (0.8 rush yards over expectation per carry, per NFL Next Gen Stats) and he ranks No. 1 among running backs in the Receiver Tracking Metrics overall score -- which measures the ability to get open, make the catch and generate YAC relative to expectations -- indicating his elite level of play as a receiver out of the backfield.
But what really sold me was not McCaffrey's box score numbers, but the effect he had on the entire offense. Prior to acquiring McCaffrey, the 49ers faced man coverage 39% of the time last season, one of the lower rates in the league. After acquiring him, that jumped to 48% -- one of the higher rates.
I believe the change is due to McCaffrey's receiving ability. Since 2018, NFL running backs have recorded a reception on 9% of dropbacks vs. man coverage, but 17% vs. zone. Defenses had to adjust to play more man, otherwise they were putting the ball in the hands of the best receiving back in the NFL.
From 2019 until the McCaffrey trade in 2022, the 49ers offense under Kyle Shanahan was more effective vs. man coverage: 0.16 expected points added per dropback vs. 0.10 against zone.
Once McCaffrey arrived, the offense exploded. What was a 0.00 EPA per play offense became a 0.12 EPA per play offense (postseason included). Now, it's not that straightforward -- a lot of other things changed too.
Trey Lance began that season at quarterback for the 49ers before his injury prompted Jimmy Garoppolo to take over -- before his own injury moved Brock Purdy to the starting role. Even if we look at only the games Garoppolo started and finished pre- and post-McCaffrey, we see a massive difference in the team's performance: 0.02 EPA per play to 0.16 EPA per play, respectively.
Put it all together, and it's safe to say McCaffrey's effect extends beyond his personal box score production.
So why an A-? There are two elements to this grading process: the result thus far and the expectation of what's to come. And while I have little doubt that McCaffrey will remain excellent as long as he's on the field this season, there is that caveat: He's a seventh-year running back who has had injury problems. That heightened injury risk remains. Plus -- and this is not trivial! -- the draft pick cost of this deal was very high, though the 49ers did get 1.5 years of very affordable salary costs and contract control through 2025.
Original grade for the Panthers: A-
New grade for the Panthers: B+
As good as McCaffrey has been, the Panthers were smart to offload him for draft capital when they did. They were out of contention with a veteran running back who was an asset -- they had to cash in. And they got quite a haul for him. There's a reason the original grades were what they were.
Knowing now how McCaffrey has played since that deal, would Carolina like to have recouped a little more? Sure. But if I were the Panthers GM at the deadline last year and was told that the best and only offer I had was the one the 49ers made, I'm still making the trade -- even if I knew how it would turn out. By the time the Panthers are real contenders again, McCaffrey will likely be diminished.
RB Jeff Wilson Jr. to the Dolphins
Miami Dolphins got: Wilson
San Francisco 49ers got: 2023 fifth-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1
Original grade for the Dolphins: B+
New grade for the Dolphins: C
As I mentioned on the Bradley Chubb trade, at the time of the deadline I was high on the Dolphins because their offense had been so successful when Tua Tagovailoa was on the field. The team needed an upgrade at running back though, and Wilson seemed like a logical fit coming from the Shanahan offense in San Francisco.
Ultimately, it didn't really pay off. Though Wilson put up 4.7 yards per carry, that was 0.4 below expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. To give up a fifth-rounder for that kind of production is tough. Wilson is still on the team but opened the season on injured reserve and will surely will be behind rookie De'Von Achane when he returns. It's possible he will be useful for Miami; he was an efficient runner with the 49ers before the trade.
Original grade for the 49ers: B
New grade for the 49ers: A-
After the McCaffrey trade, Wilson became the 49ers' third-string running back (also behind Elijah Mitchell). Anytime a team can cash in a third-string back for a fifth-round selection, that's probably a positive value bet. This was a nice move by the 49ers.
RB James Robinson to the Jets
New York Jets got: Robinson
Jacksonville Jaguars got: Conditional sixth-round pick (would become a fifth-round pick if Robinson rushes for 260 yards with the Jets)
Trade date: Oct. 24
Original grade for the Jets: C+
New grade for the Jets: D
At the time this trade was made, the Jets were 5-2 but had seen rookie running back Breece Hall tear his ACL. They made a move for Robinson, but it did not pan out. There were plenty of signs forecasting that result. Robinson had suffered an Achilles injury in 2021 and was in his return season. At the time of the trade, he had negative rush yards over expectation.
At the time, I wrote, "I'm just not sure Robinson offers much more than a standard replacement-level running back." And indeed, he did not.
He accrued 85 yards for the Jets, with the silver lining being that they only surrendered a sixth-round pick for the minimal production from Robinson, who is currently a free agent.
Original grade for the Jaguars: B+
New grade for the Jaguars: A-
Anytime you can receive trade compensation for a backup running back with mediocre production coming off a serious injury, you take it. That's what the Jaguars got. Robinson recorded 4.2 yards per carry in 2022 when playing for Jacksonville, which is what they got from his replacement, JaMycal Hasty, after the deal.
This was a pretty easy win at the time, and a very easy win in retrospect.
RB Nyheim Hines to the Bills, RB Zack Moss to the Colts
Buffalo Bills got: Hines
Indianapolis Colts got: Moss, conditional sixth-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1
Original grade for the Bills: B
New grade for the Bills: C+
Hines delivered a magical moment that will be long-remembered by Bills fans: an opening kickoff return for a touchdown against the Patriots on the first play since Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest on the field the week prior. It was actually the first of two kick return TDs for Hines in that game.
The Bills acquired Hines at the deadline, hoping to pick up a receiving back after striking out on J.D. McKissic the prior offseason. Ultimately, Hines' biggest contributions were on special teams, as he rushed for minus-3 yards and recorded 72 receiving yards in nine games with the Bills, postseason included. Hines suffered a serious injury when he was struck by a jet ski in July and is expected to miss the 2023 season.
The other downside here is that what the Bills gave up turned out to be more valuable than was previously thought.
Original grade for the Colts: B
New grade for the Colts: B+
With Deon Jackson -- a strong receiving back -- already on the roster at the time of the deal and the team benching Matt Ryan for Sam Ehlinger, it made sense for the Colts to trade Hines. They got a pick and Moss. At the time, I wrote this about the latter: "Moss fell out of favor in Buffalo, but there's no real downside to taking him and seeing how he fares as a backup behind Jonathan Taylor."
There was definitely upside, though.
With Taylor on the physically unable to perform list to start this season, Moss has been the Colts' primary back thus far. And he has taken advantage, rushing for 445 yards on 89 carries (5.0 per carry) and three rushing touchdowns (plus another receiving). The advanced numbers back him up -- he has recorded a massive 114 rush yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Taylor has been inked to a long-term deal, but Moss may have played his way into becoming a trade candidate. The Colts might be able to flip him for a profit after getting some nice production from him.
WR Calvin Ridley to the Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars got: Ridley
Atlanta Falcons got: 2023 fifth-round pick, 2024 conditional fourth-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1
Original grade for the Jaguars: A
New grade for the Jaguars: A
We have only five games of results here -- Ridley was suspended at the time of the trade -- so the evaluation of this deal remains a lot of projection about what's to come. So far, he has been solid with 333 receiving yards and 2.0 yards per route run, at times looking the WR1 the Jaguars needed (like when he caught seven passes for 122 yards against the Bills) and at other points going quiet or hurting the offense with drops.
I still think this was a great deal for the Jaguars. They were in desperate need of a top-flight receiver and had little hope of taking the next step without one.
While Ridley hasn't been amazing, a lot of the downside risks of this deal have dissipated. He was reinstated from his suspension and is on the field. Remember, in 2020 he battled a foot injury and in 2021, prior to his suspension, he had stepped away from the Falcons to address his mental health. The costs to get to this point were minimal -- a fifth-round pick and a fourth-round pick, along with $11.1 million in salary. The fourth-rounder can become a third-rounder if Ridley reaches incentives this season and a second-rounder if he's signed to an extension, but those are things that happen only if he plays well. That's a good problem to have.
Original grade for the Falcons: B-
New grade for the Falcons: C
Atlanta and Ridley probably were both looking for a fresh start, so it's understandable that this trade happened. The Falcons surprisingly decided to make the move last trade deadline, locking in compensation for a player whose future was unknown.
With the benefit of hindsight, I'm sure they wished they had waited until the 2023 league year to put him on the market. Once he was reinstated, I have to think he would have garnered more of a return.
WR Chase Claypool to the Bears
Chicago Bears got: Claypool
Pittsburgh Steelers got: 2023 second-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1
Original grade for the Bears: D+
New grade for the Bears: F
OK, time for my victory lap -- this trade was a mess from the jump. Even in a world where Claypool continued to be the player he was in Pittsburgh (OK but unspectacular), the Bears paid an absurd premium in an early second-round pick that ended up being selection No. 32, the first pick of the second round. There was no reason to do this: They were getting Claypool with 1.5 cheap years left on his contract, but the first half of that was wasted in a rebuilding year.
Chicago would have been much, much better off saving the draft pick and using its resources to acquire more receiving help in the offseason.
Of course, Claypool didn't produce like he did in Pittsburgh. All the Bears got for that borderline first-round pick was 18 receptions for 191 yards and a touchdown. That's it, plus what seemed like conflict with the coaching staff, before they flipped him to Miami last week for virtually nothing.
The entire ordeal was a disaster.
Original grade for the Steelers: A-
New grade for the Steelers: A
The Steelers didn't need to trade Claypool, but they were able to capitalize on Chicago's desperation. Thanks to Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, the Steelers had the receiver depth necessary to make this trade.
It looked like a great move at the time. And when Claypool failed to produce at all in Chicago, it appeared even better.
WR Kadarius Toney to the Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs got: Toney
New York Giants got: 2023 third-round pick; 2023 sixth-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 27
Original grade for the Chiefs: B
New grade for the Chiefs: C
When you think of Toney as a member of the Chiefs, you think of Super Bowl LVII heroics, when he had a go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter and a 65-yard punt return to put Kansas City at the 5-yard line a few minutes later. He also played just six offensive snaps in that game.
That's the thing with Toney: He has tantalizing promise, but the results haven't matched up. He totaled 221 receiving yards over 10 regular and postseason games last season and has just 83 in five games this season. He had a brutal drop-filled Week 1 -- including one that resulted in a pick-six -- in the Chiefs' loss to the Lions. He has played in just 23% of Kansas City's offensive snaps this season, same as last regular season post-trade.
The Chiefs have him on an inexpensive contract this season and next, and there's always a chance he can put it together; he's still just 24, after all. But so far, while he has had a couple of very high-profile successes, the results overall have been lackluster.
Original grade for the Giants: B
New grade for the Giants: A
Sometimes unloading a contract at a low price is the right thing to do. Just 1½ years after drafting him in the first round, the Giants dealt Toney for a third-round pick and a sixth-round pick after he'd been on the field for 12 games for them. They're probably happy about how it all turned out.
While the Giants still have a weakness at wide receiver, what they really need is an outside receiving threat -- an entirely different skill set from Toney's. The draft compensation was worth more to the Giants.
WR Robbie Chosen to the Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals got: Chosen
Carolina Panthers got: Sixth-round pick in 2024, seventh-round pick in 2025
Trade date: Oct. 17
Original grade for the Cardinals: C
New grade for the Cardinals: D
Chosen's lack of production for the Cardinals -- he caught seven passes for 76 yards -- was foreseeable. At the time of this trade, I noted that Anderson had been the worst qualifying wideout in the Receiver Tracking Metrics in 2021, was below average at that point in 2022 and had an incredibly poor 48% catch rate to that point. Arizona was taking a low-risk swing at what they hoped was a useful rental receiver, but the chances were very low, and they did not pan out.
A year later, it's wild to think of Arizona acquiring a player at the trade deadline, albeit on an affordable deal. It is the small price paid for the contract that prevents this grade from being an F. Otherwise, nothing about this deal worked in the Cardinals' favor.
Original grade for the Panthers: B+
New grade for the Panthers: B+
Carolina did well in getting a couple of late-round draft picks for Chosen instead of holding on to him for nothing. His dead cap money was a sunk cost, and there was no way the Panthers (or any others) were going to keep him on the contract he was on -- which included a non-guaranteed $12 million in 2024 -- beyond 2023. It was a home run in terms of execution, and I only give it a B+ because the scale of draft picks was so small.
TE T.J. Hockenson to the Vikings
Minnesota Vikings got: Hockenson, 2023 fourth-round pick, 2024 conditional fourth-round pick
Detroit Lions got: 2023 second-round pick, 2024 third-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1
Original grade for the Vikings: B+
New grade for the Vikings: B+
Since being traded to Minnesota, Hockenson ranks second behind Travis Kelce in receiving yards by a tight end (853). Some of that, though, is due to the high passing volume in Minnesota, and some of Hockenson's advanced numbers aren't quite as special. For example, his 1.55 yards per route run ranks 15th among tight ends with at least 100 routes run since the trade. His Receiver Tracking Metrics are pedestrian, with a 50 overall score last season (10th best among TEs) and 46 this season entering Week 5 (15th best among TEs).
Hockenson has helped change the Vikings' offense in other ways. He has taken on a different role, catching shorter passes with an average depth of target of 6.6 yards as opposed to 8.1 yards in Detroit. What also changed in that time was Justin Jefferson's depth of target, which was 8.3 yards on average in 2022 before Hockenson's arrival and has been 11.0 ever since. The change in Jefferson's routes hasn't resulted in more efficient play for him; in fact, Jefferson's yards per route run has dropped slightly since pre-Hockenson 2022. But Kirk Cousins' numbers have improved, from 6.0 yards per dropback to 6.4 and a light QBR jump from 51 to 55. Is that due to Hockenson? It's hard to say for sure, but having an underneath option in Hockenson to free up Jefferson is at least a plausible explanation.
The trade compensation here works out to the equivalent of a third-round pick going to the Lions, according to ESPN's draft pick valuations. The Vikings also paid Hockenson, signing him to a pricey deal in August that averages $16.5 million annually, the second-highest average per year among tight ends. They had to give up a pick in order to give him that contract, but he's young. If the wide receiver market explodes again, one can imagine a world where the tight end market goes with it too.
Original grade for the Lions: B
New grade for the Lions: B
It's amazing reading back to what I wrote a year ago, noting that the Lions "know they aren't contenders" as part of the justification for the deal. It turns out they were pretty close, only missing out on the 2022 playoffs due to a tiebreaker. Would they have made it with Hockenson? It's at least possible.
Ultimately, the Lions' trade netted them a third-rounder before they had to pay Hockenson. Often that's good business. I'm guessing in the offseason the Lions might have had some light regrets about letting him go given how good their team ended up being, his youth and Jameson Williams' suspension (thus leaving them short-handed on pass-catchers). But now, after drafting Sam LaPorta in Round 2 and seeing his start, they probably feel fine about it. LaPorta is averaging 2.4 yards per route run so far.
DE Robert Quinn to the Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles got: Quinn
Chicago Bears got: 2023 fourth-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 26
Original grade for the Eagles: A
New grade for the Eagles: C-
This trade did not work out, but the process was good. Quinn had long been a pass-rush disruptor, having recorded four of the top 20 pass rush win rate seasons at edge since 2017 and registering 18.5 sacks in 2021. For a Super Bowl contender like the Eagles, that kind of player makes sense to bet on.
The bet didn't pay off. Quinn managed just one sack for the Eagles in nine games played (postseason included). His win rate in that time was actually pretty strong -- 21% -- but he only had 61 pass rushes in those nine games due to low playing time. He also missed time during the regular season with a knee injury.
Original grade for the Bears: B-
New grade for the Bears: B
Trading Quinn was a no-brainer for the Bears. They were rebuilding, Quinn was 32 and the remaining years on his contract were pricey.
At the time, I thought what the Bears received in exchange for a player who had had 18.5 sacks the year prior was a little underwhelming -- particularly since they had to pick up the tab on Quinn's remaining salary (less the veteran minimum). Ultimately, it turned out Quinn had little left in the tank, so the Bears made out well in getting a fourth-round pick, even if they had to pay a reported $7.1 million in remaining salary.
OLB Bradley Chubb to the Dolphins
Miami Dolphins got: Chubb, 2025 fifth-round pick
Denver Broncos got: 49ers 2023 first-round pick, Dolphins 2024 fourth-round pick, RB Chase Edmonds
Trade date: Nov. 1
Original grade for the Dolphins: B+
New grade for the Dolphins: C
This was the football equivalent of me getting hypnotized by a shiny object. I was high on the Dolphins at the time of this trade. Chubb's win rates were on fire, and the Rams' Von Miller acquisition in 2021 was floating around my subconscious. I should have known better.
The Dolphins paid a first-round pick (plus!) for the right to pay Chubb a huge contract. And while he played well in Denver in 2022, his performance had been largely disappointing to that point.
His level of play dropped after the trade. He had racked up 5.5 sacks in Denver but managed just 2.5 sacks the rest of the season for Miami. His pass rush win rate dropped from 27% to 20% at edge (still above average, to be fair). In 2023, his win rate has rebounded to a strong 30% at edge (second best), though a huge part of that was taking advantage of Giants backup tackles on Sunday (he only ranks 12th if we remove that game). The sacks haven't come, either, as he has just one this season.
Original grade for the Broncos: B
New grade for the Broncos: A
This is pretty simple now: The Broncos were noncontenders unloading Chubb's contract at a steep price when he already was on his fifth-year option. He wasn't worth anything to them the rest of 2022 (and, perhaps, in 2023 too), so getting value for him then made sense. And the draft pick provides a much higher potential for surplus value than re-signing Chubb would.
LB Roquan Smith to Ravens
Baltimore Ravens got: Smith
Chicago Bears got: LB A.J. Klein, 2023 second-round pick, 2023 fifth-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 31
Original grade for the Ravens: B
New grade for the Ravens: B+
This new grade might raise eyebrows, because Smith has been exceptional for the Ravens since they acquired him. He was a Pro Bowler and a first-team All-Pro in 2022, he ranks second in run stop win rate among linebackers since being acquired by Baltimore and he is tied for first in Pro Football Focus grade among linebackers in 2023.
All of that is why this grade has gone up. But let's not pretend like this wasn't an incredibly expensive maneuver for an off-ball linebacker, because a critical factor in evaluating the results of this trade is that the Ravens ended up signing Smith to a five-year, $100 million contract that includes $45 million fully guaranteed.
At the time of this trade, I figured the Ravens might rent Smith for 2022 before letting him walk in free agency for a third-round compensatory selection. By signing Smith, it became the equivalent of dealing a borderline first- or second-round pick for the right to pay Smith.
That's usually a bad bet, but it is one that can pay off if the player plays as well as Smith has. However, the surplus value is limited because the costs were so high.
Original grade for the Bears: B
New grade for the Bears: C+
In a vacuum, trading Smith was probably a good process. A rebuilding team getting draft pick compensation for a player you were going to have to pay soon is usually a smart bet. But if we allow ourselves the right to evaluate this decision in conjunction with a few others, it looks worse.
Specifically, the Bears' decision to sign Tremaine Edmunds to a four-year, $72 million deal that included almost $42 million in fully guaranteed money, just shy of the fully guaranteed money Smith received, raises questions. While Edmunds was coming off a nice season with the Buffalo Bills, he isn't nearly the same caliber of player as Smith. The Bears also signed T.J. Edwards to a reasonable contract (that I very much liked at the time), but it meant investing even more into the off-ball linebacker position.
Dealing Smith, taking the draft capital and using more affordable resources on the off-ball linebacker position would have been more prudent. That Smith has played so well since leaving hurts a little in retrospect, though the Bears are still rebuilding, so the production would have been squandered.