We're on to the fourth weekend of the 2023 NFL season, and we're sure you are fully prepared for the loaded Week 4 slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal on Sunday. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen making five predictions about how things could play out on Sunday, including some player props. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news that you might have missed.
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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Predictions | Latest buzz
Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Sunday's winners
Is Houston receiver Tank Dell's hot start for real?
We've been waiting to use our receiver tracking metrics in this space because they're noisy in a small sample, but I couldn't resist looking at early results -- and I was pretty shocked to see Dell at the top of open score, which assesses the likelihood a receiver would be able to complete a catch if he were targeted on every route.
The Texans rookie receiver has 251 receiving yards and two TDs through three games. What's really remarkable is that his 24% target rate is strong but not outrageous -- Tyreek Hill's is 43%, for example -- which indicates that open score probably likes what it sees on Dell's nontargets. His 4.6 yards per route run against man coverage (second best among WRs with at least 50 routes run) is also a good sign. Again, there's a caveat: These are all small samples this time of year. But it's a pretty great early signal for the third-round rookie. (For those wondering, fellow rookie receiver Puka Nacua ranks fifth here.)
Will Buffalo test Miami's motion at the snap?
The Dolphins' motion at the snap has been off the charts. They are using it on 59% of their offensive plays, almost three times the league average (20%), and it's by far the highest rate of any team's motion at the snap rates since we began tracking in 2017 (second highest was the 2022 Dolphins at 46%). And it's working, as Miami averages 0.16 expected points added (EPA) per play on plays without motion at the snap and 0.50 EPA per play with it.
Sunday against Buffalo will be a different kind of test, though. No team has been better against motion at the snap this season than the Bills, at negative-0.52 EPA per play -- roughly as strong against it as the Dolphins have been good with it. The Bills' defense sample is tiny, with just 25 plays, and the team wasn't particularly special against motion at the snap last year, but it's something to keep an eye on.
How are the Cardinals maximizing quarterback Joshua Dobbs?
I would've been pretty stunned if you told me a month ago that Dobbs was 10th in Total QBR through three weeks (61.2). The Cardinals have been very run-heavy (47%, fourth in the NFL), but they are using that to maximize their pass game. Arizona is running play-action on 36% of Dobbs' dropbacks, the highest rate in the league. Play-action is still an underused advantage across the league -- quarterbacks have a 63 QBR with it and 51 QBR without it -- but Dobbs takes those numbers to the extreme. His QBR is 84 with it ... and 34 without it.
Playing on a run-first team also gives Dobbs the advantage of facing light boxes (which are harder to throw against) a league-low 60% of the time. All of this is to say that Dobbs is getting the benefit of some easy-mode features, but he is at least taking advantage. He has 549 yards, two TD passes and zero interceptions this season. Play-action could be key against the tough 49ers defense on Sunday.
Do the Commanders have an answer for the Eagles' pass game?
The Commanders' defense has been largely disappointing through three games, ranking just 23rd in EPA per play allowed. But one bright spot is cornerback Kendall Fuller, who has allowed just 38 yards on five receptions over 12 targets and 88 coverage snaps this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That 0.4 yards per coverage snap allowed is second best behind Cleveland's Martin Emerson among corners with at least 75 coverage snaps this season. Fuller's 14% target rate is also well below the outside corner average of 19%.
While Fuller has been a consistently solid-to-good corner in the past, he looks like he's playing at the top of his game right now. With Philadelphia hosting the Commanders Sunday, facing his strong play isn't ideal timing for an Eagles passing game that hasn't yet quite clicked.
Are the Jaguars' drop issues a big problem?
The Jaguars have dropped an astonishing 7% of their passes, the most in the league. On one hand, that accounts for just eight plays. On the other, that can be pretty impactful over three games. If Calvin Ridley hadn't dropped a potential touchdown pass against the Texans last weekend, for instance, perhaps that game would have turned out differently.
This was a problem last year, too, with the Jaguars posting a 6% drop rate (third highest) in 2022. It made me wonder if this is actually a Trevor Lawrence problem. I looked at the year-over-year correlation for drop rates for quarterbacks and found there was some -- but part of that is surely receivers often remaining the same from year to year, too. So it's all a little murky. No matter the cause, drops have been a problem for the Jaguars that will continue to hinder the offense if it isn't fixed. Next up is Atlanta in London on ESPN+ Sunday morning.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you should pick up -- and can start this week
Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (44.3% rostered)
Fantasy managers are looking at Quentin Johnson as an immediate fantasy beneficiary of Mike Williams' season-ending injury, but don't ignore Palmer, who led the Chargers' receivers last season with 72 receptions. Palmer already has Justin Herbert's trust and faces a Raiders defense that hasn't forced a turnover and has only five sacks. Last season, Palmer averaged 9.0 targets and 66.5 receiving yards per game in four matchups without Williams.
Roschon Johnson, RB, Chicago Bears (44.1% rostered)
The Bears' offense hit rock bottom against the Chiefs in Week 3, and having trouble completing easy passes has been a major issue for Chicago's offense. Since 2021, quarterback Justin Fields has had the highest off-target rate of any quarterback. The Bears need to make more use of Fields' mobility and the run game, and Johnson has been their most productive backfield player (5.3 yards per carry). There is potential for him to have a breakout performance against a Broncos defense that gave up 96.2 fantasy points last week to Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans (29.0% rostered)
Even against the Steelers' defense, Stroud should not be overlooked as a sleeper in Week 4. He has scored 20-plus fantasy points in two consecutive games and appears in sync with receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell. He is the first player in league history to have at least 900 passing yards, four passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in his first three career starts.
If you are looking for more quarterback help, Raiders signal-caller Jimmy Garoppolo (13.1% rostered) has scored 15 or more fantasy points twice this season and is facing a Chargers defense that has allowed 25.3 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the most in the league. (But of course, make sure he's active.)
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts (11.4% rostered)
Downs had a season-high 12 targets and 57 receiving yards against the Ravens on Sunday while catching passes from backup quarterback Gardner Minshew. In two games with Anthony Richardson, he had only 12 targets total, which he converted into seven receptions for 67 yards and no touchdowns. The rookie is establishing himself as a reliable part of the Colts' offense and is consistently creating separation. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Downs has 3.5 yards of separation per route run this season, which leads the Indianapolis receivers. He's a deep sleeper to consider against the Rams.
Wan'Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants (1.4% rostered)
Robinson played just 22% of the snaps for the Giants against the 49ers in Week 3, his first game back since tearing his ACL in November 2022. He ran nine routes and caught 4 of 5 targets for 21 yards against the 49ers. In deeper formats, Robinson should be on your radar for Monday night against Seattle. Considering the mediocre WR depth chart in New York, he could become a quick favorite for quarterback Daniel Jones. The Seahawks' defense has allowed the second-most passing yards this season.
Bowen: Five sneaky predictions for Sunday's action
Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson will throw two touchdown passes
Wilson has thrown for multiple touchdowns in two of three games played this season, and he gets a prime matchup against the Bears' defense. Chicago is the league's most zone-heavy team (73.6% of the time), and it hasn't shown the ability to rush the quarterback. The Bears have just one sack (0.9% of opponent dropbacks) and 21 pressures (31st in the NFL). That means more time for Wilson to find open targets.
Eagles edge rusher Jalen Carter will have two sacks
The tape on Carter is really impressive. The rookie defensive tackle is explosive off the ball, flashing high-level disruptive traits. Through three games, Carter has produced 1.5 sacks and six pressures. And now he gets a good matchup against Washington and quarterback Sam Howell, who was sacked nine times in the Week 3 loss to Buffalo.
Raiders running back Josh Jacobs will rush for more than 70 yards
Jacobs is averaging just 2.4 yards per carry, and the Raiders' run game overall has been subpar through the first three weeks of the season. However, Jacobs has seen at least 17 rushing attempts in two of three games this season. You're taking the anticipated volume with Jacobs in a positive matchup against the Chargers' defense, which is allowing 4.4 yards per carry.
Saints cornerback Alontae Taylor will intercept Baker Mayfield
Taylor leads the NFL with seven pass breakups this season, and I love his tape in Dennis Allen's aggressive defensive scheme. He will challenge wide receivers with the traits to create on-the-ball production. Look for Taylor to steal one here from Mayfield and the Bucs on Sunday. The Tampa Bay quarterback has just one interception this season, but he threw eight in 12 games last season.
Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco will log at least 15 rushing attempts
The Jets should play more zone shell coverages to limit quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' vertical passing game on Sunday night, which should open the door for Pacheco to log rushing volume. With two safeties aligned off the ball in Quarters and Cover 2, Pacheco will have lighter run fronts to work against on his touches. And he has seen at least 12 rushing attempts in his past two games.
Fowler: What I'm hearing as we near kickoff
Saints quarterback Derek Carr has made progress this week, participating in practice, throwing and giving himself a chance to play against the Bucs. The team will monitor how Carr (shoulder) is feeling over the weekend and make a determination. But I continue to hear the Saints will be very cautious with Carr, who took a big hit from Green Bay's Rashan Gary on Sunday. And Jameis Winston has gotten significant reps this week, so it would still be a mild surprise if Carr plays. But he's in the mix.
In other Saints news, running back Alvin Kamara has looked fresh upon his return from suspension. The Saints plan to give him a healthy workload.
With Bills safety Damar Hamlin set to be active for the first time this season -- capping a remarkable comeback from cardiac arrest suffered in Paycor Stadium a little more than nine months ago -- he has earned this chance. He's moving around and feeling like himself pre-injury, and he came out of the preseason with confidence from making multiple tackles. Taylor Rapp will start at safety with Jordan Poyer out (knee), but Hamlin will be ready if needed.
The Raiders have been optimistic about quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo's chances to play, but he still must pass through concussion protocol stages and be cleared by an independent doctor, which keeps his status up in the air. But he has been feeling good since early in the week, which is encouraging.
Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson is listed as questionable, but a source tells me he hopes to play through his shoulder injury on Sunday against Baltimore. On the other sideline, Ravens running back Justice Hill (toe) is expected to play Sunday, as well, per source.