The NFL returns to London this weekend when the Atlanta Falcons take on the Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium on Sunday (9:30 a.m. ET, ESPN+). This matchup is the first of five international NFL games being played this season. To get you ready for the game -- which you can watch exclusively on ESPN+ -- we have compiled the most comprehensive guide for the matchup on the internet.
We get started with analytics writer Seth Walder answering the biggest questions for each team and NFL analyst Matt Bowen breaking down what he has seen from both quarterbacks so far. Then NFL Nation reporters Michael DiRocco and Michael Rothstein identify X factors for the game, NFL analyst Aaron Schatz evaluates which team is better at each position, and NFL draft analyst Matt Miller names three rookies to watch.
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Don't know who to start on your fantasy team? Fantasy writer Eric Karabell will tell you. Wondering where the Jaguars and Falcons are projected to pick in the 2024 draft and who they could get? NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid (and ESPN's Football Power Index) lays it out. Need some sports betting advice on the game? NFL analyst Mike Clay brings you intriguing prop bets for the matchup. We even take a closer look at the 2022 Calvin Ridley trade between the two franchises.
We have it all here in one place, and we close it out with expert score picks.
Jump to:
Big questions | Ridder vs. Lawrence | X factors
Position breakdown | Ridley trade | Rookies
Draft projection | Betting | Expert picks
Big questions
Walder picked two interesting early-season questions -- one for each team -- and dove into the numbers.
Can the Falcons survive with a barebones passing game?
The Falcons aren't hiding who they are, which is a run-first team. That's evident not just from their selection of running back Bijan Robinson with the No. 8 overall pick in the 2023 draft but also by the team's extreme run-pass splits. When win probability is between 15-85% (when the game is still in question), the Falcons have run designed pass plays 54% of the time, the second-lowest rate in the NFL, only ahead of the Cardinals.
It's for good reason, as the Falcons' passing attack hasn't been efficient. Quarterback Desmond Ridder has a 36 Total QBR, which ranks 29th, and the team's expected points added (EPA) per dropback is minus-0.06, which ranks 23rd. In other words, every time Ridder drops back to pass, it hurts Atlanta, on average. When Ridder dropped back to pass 46 times in the Falcons' Week 3 loss to the Lions, he averaged just 3.0 yards per dropback and recorded a 14 QBR.
To win with that kind of passing game requires an ultra-efficient ground attack (and a good defense). Robinson looks like a star, accruing 73 rush yards over expectation already this year (per NFL Next Gen Stats) and is excelling as a receiver with 14 receptions for 102 yards in three games.
Atlanta's run game has been good in the past. Last season, it ranked third in EPA per designed run (0.05). But it hasn't yet shown that this season. Atlanta's EPA per designed rush in 2023 is 0.01 -- better than its passing game but only 11th-best in the league. If the Falcons are going to have success, at least one -- or both -- segments of its offense will have to be better.
Can Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars overcome the team's offensive line?
Lawrence has been better than his numbers suggest throughout his NFL career because he hasn't had great surroundings. Last season, he ranked 17th in QBR but did so playing behind an offensive line that ranked 31st in pass block win rate and with a lackluster receiving group with the third-highest drop rate in the NFL (6%).
In 2023, the Jaguars added Calvin Ridley, converting a weakness at receiver into a strength, though the drop issue remains. The Jaguars have a league-high 7% drop rate so far this season.
The offensive line remains a worrying sign in both segments of the offense. The team ranks 26th in pass block win rate, with rookie right tackle Anton Harrison recording the third-worst PBWR (70%) at the position. Other starters, like tackle Walker Little, guard Ben Bartch and center Luke Fortner, have all been well below-average at their respective positions, too. While Lawrence's 4.8% sack rate is low, that is mostly a function of his ability to avoid sacks. Offensive line failures substantially affect the pass game even when they don't result in sacks.
Critically, the offensive line issue extends to the ground attack. Jacksonville ranks 29th in run block win rate, and the production is in line with that -- the Jags rank 29th in EPA per designed run (minus-0.17).
Help could be on the way soon when tackle Cam Robinson returns from his four-game suspension for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy. Then again, Robinson ranked in the bottom six among tackles in both win rate metrics last season. If the Jaguars are going to become true contenders, Lawrence and Ridley are going to need to play above the shortcomings of the offensive line.
Battle of the QBs: Lawrence vs. Ridder
Bowen dug into the tape on the two starting quarterbacks and picked out three things he has seen so far in 2023.
Desmond Ridder, Falcons
Ridder can produce as a play-action thrower. The defined throws in coach Arthur Smith's system put Ridder in the position to target schemed voids in the coverage, and that keeps him on schedule. Ridder is averaging 7.9 yards per attempt on play-action throws this season, as opposed to 6.0 on straight dropback passes.
He needs to cut it loose. I see a lot of quick-game throws on tape, with Ridder attacking underneath. But he has attempted just 13 passes of 15 or more air yards, which ranks 29th in the NFL. With big-play targets in tight end Kyle Pitts and wide receiver Drake London, this Falcons offense could use more juice down the field.
His mobility can create conflict for defenses. Ridder has the movement traits to attack the edges on boot concepts or off second-reaction scrambles -- and the Falcons can use him situationally on designed carries. He has 43 rushing yards on 13 carries this season, with 19 of those (and a touchdown) coming on designed carries.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
Lawrence sees it fast from the pocket. In Doug Pederson's quarterback-friendly system, Lawrence is reading it out with speed. He sees the coverage and delivers the ball, as his average time before pass is 2.47 seconds -- No. 2 in the NFL behind Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa.
He needs his pass-catchers to finish more plays. The tape tells us that Lawrence has been throwing the ball with location, but there are simply too many focus drops. His drop rate per pass attempt is 7.1%, which is the highest in the league. I want to see the Jaguars' receivers finish plays for their QB to help get the offense back on track.
His pocket movement is getting tested. Lawrence has been sacked six times this year, and he has taken 29 quarterback hits over the first three weeks of the season. Even so, he has shown the ability to navigate chaos in the pocket, keeping his eye level up and moving to reset his throwing windows.
Who has the edge at every position?
Schatz looked at each team's position groups side-by-side and picked which franchise has the advantage.
Quarterbacks: Jaguars
Lawrence and Ridder are surprisingly close in QBR this year because Lawrence has negative rushing value -- but Lawrence has the better track record and skill set.
Running backs: Falcons
Tyler Allgeier had more value than Travis Etienne Jr. last season, and then the Falcons went out and took Robinson with the No. 8 overall pick. That forms an excellent 1-2 punch.
Wide receivers and tight ends: Jaguars
Both Ridley and London have seen their advanced metrics dragged down by poor quarterback play. However, the Jaguars have more depth with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. As for tight end, we know Pitts has so much potential, but when will the Falcons start throwing to him more often?
Offensive line: Falcons
This is close, but the Falcons rank 25th in pass block win rate (46.4%) and 21st in run block win rate (69.8%) so far, while the Jaguars are 26th (46.3%) and 29th (65.4%), respectively. The Falcons ranked higher in both categories in 2022, as well.
Interior defensive line: Falcons
David Onyemata ranks seventh in pass rush win rate (21.6%) among defensive tackles this season. Grady Jarrett is 11th in PRWR (17.3%) and 10th in run stop win rate (43.2%). The Jaguars are surprisingly strong against the run up front -- they're third in adjusted line yards allowed -- but bring no pass rush on the interior.
Edge rushers: Jaguars
The Jaguars have disappointed with their pass rush, but the Falcons' edge rushers are no better. Jacksonville's Josh Allen is the best on either team. And Travon Walker, Jacksonville's No. 1 overall pick in 2022, is better setting the edge against the run than he is rushing the passer.
Linebackers: Jaguars
Former Falcon Foyesade Oluokun is second in the league with eight defeats, a measure of splash plays. He led the NFL in that metric in 2022. Devin Lloyd will likely miss the game with a hand injury, but the Jaguars have Chad Muma to step in.
Secondary: Falcons
Each team has a clear No. 1 corner. Jaguars' Tyson Campbell broke out with excellent coverage last season, while A.J. Terrell was fantastic in 2021 for the Falcons -- and appears to be rebounding from a mediocre 2022. The difference here is probably the quality of the safeties, and the Falcons signed Jessie Bates III in the offseason.
Special teams: Falcons
Both units were good last season by special teams DVOA, but Atlanta was better. And both units have been below-average this year, but Atlanta has been better.
Three rookies to watch on Sunday
Miller picked out three intriguing rookies who could impact the game -- besides the obvious pick in Atlanta's Robinson.
Matthew Bergeron, G, Falcons
The Atlanta offensive line struggled in Week 3 against the Lions, and Bergeron will be a point of emphasis for improvement in Week 4. Ridder was sacked seven times last week, but Bergeron's ability in the run game will be key against Jacksonville.
Tank Bigsby, RB, Jaguars
The Jaguars have a talented starter in Etienne, but Bigsby has been a valuable short-yardage runner who has added two scores on just seven carries thus far. Facing an Atlanta team that allowed 115 yards on the ground in Week 3, Bigsby could see an increased role.
Anton Harrison, OT, Jaguars
Jacksonville will look to get back on track offensively, and Harrison will be important in stopping the Atlanta pass rush. The rookie right tackle surrendered three sacks in his first two starts and now has to go head-to-head with Calais Campbell.
What are the X factors in this game?
Our NFL Nation reporters picked out the players and areas of the game that could determine who wins on Sunday morning.
For the Falcons ...
Offensive rhythm. The Falcons have been without rhythm for the majority of the first three games of the season. They have scored three points and gained 167 yards total in the first quarter this season, accentuating Atlanta's issues at the start of games. The talent level is there -- that's without question with six first-round picks across the offense (three on the line, three at skill positions) -- and if Atlanta can find a way to be offensively effective in the first half, it should solve a lot of the Falcons' issues.
Tight end Kyle Pitts. The player with the nickname "The Unicorn" has been more of an enigma this season (and most of last season). Coach Arthur Smith described Pitts as "one of the most deceptively fast guys you'll ever watch run," and having Pitts involved in the offense is paramount to potential success. He has 17 targets (5.7 per game) and nine catches (three per game). If Atlanta gets him more involved, it could space out the rest of the offense. -- Rothstein
For the Jaguars ...
Linebackers Josh Allen and Travon Walker. The pass rush has to do ... something. Anything. It was ineffective against Houston's backup offensive line (no sacks and only four QB hits on 30 dropbacks). Allen and Walker have to start producing consistently, and getting after Ridder (12 sacks in three games) would be a good start.
Scoring early. The Jaguars haven't scored a first-half touchdown in their past two games. Getting into the end zone in the first frame against a Falcons team that has its own offensive issues early (two first-half TDs all season) could jumpstart a sluggish Lawrence. -- DiRocco
Early returns on the Ridley trade
At the 2022 trade deadline eleven months ago, the Falcons traded Ridley to the Jaguars while the wide receiver was still serving a suspension for violating the league gambling policy. A fresh start felt right for Ridley after he stepped away from the Falcons in 2021 to deal with his mental health and then was suspended for the 2022 season for gambling. And it also felt right for Atlanta, who had drafted Pitts in the first round of the 2021 draft and London in the first round of the 2022 draft.
Perhaps the biggest impact of the Ridley trade will be the compensation Atlanta will receive for him. Right now, it sits as a fourth-rounder, but if Ridley has 75 catches or 1,000 yards this season (or plays at least 60% of snaps), it will become a third-round pick. If Jacksonville signs him to an extension, it'll become a second-rounder. The trade also eventually brought cornerback Jeff Okudah to Atlanta, as the 2023 fifth-round pick that the Jaguars had sent to Atlanta was then traded to Detroit for the 2020 first-rounder.
As for Ridley in Jacksonville, after a solid debut in the opener (eight catches, 101 yards and a TD), he has dropped (three) nearly as many passes as he has caught (five) in the past two weeks. He still leads the team in targets (25) and is tied for the lead in receiving yards (173), so it's clear the Jaguars view him as their No. 1 receiver. Coach Doug Pederson said Ridley is pressing a bit to make up for lost time but expects him to settle in as the season progresses.
It's too early to know what the Jaguars' plans are for Ridley after this season -- he's playing on the fifth year of his rookie contract -- but if he has the kind of season the Jaguars are looking for, expect them to use the franchise tag or work out a long-term extension. -- Rothstein and DiRocco
Who should you start in fantasy?
Karabell tiered noteworthy players playing in this game for fantasy football purposes, starting with the guys you are starting no matter what and ending with the ones who shouldn't be in your lineups.
Obvious starts: RB Bijan Robinson (ATL), RB Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX), QB Trevor Lawrence (JAX), WR Calvin Ridley (JAX), TE Evan Engram (JAX)
There's nothing to worry about with each team's top running back. Lawrence has not played like a top-10 QB so far, but this offense should (must) improve soon. There is too much talent with Ridley -- who has been quiet the past two games -- Engram and others to underachieve for long. This could be a breakout game.
Streamer starts: WR Drake London (ATL), WR Christian Kirk (JAX)
London has eight catches in three games, including six in Week 2 alone. The Falcons' passing offense is a work in progress, with two touchdown passes so far, but the Jaguars couldn't handle Texans rookies C.J. Stroud and Tank Dell in Week 3. Kirk easily outscored Ridley for fantasy in two of the three games, so some may argue he's more than a streamer. The matchup is neutral for him.
Risky starts: TE Kyle Pitts (ATL)
Pitts is a wonderful yet underutilized talent, and he has yet to reach double-digit PPR points in a game this season. There are more productive tight ends available.
Long-shot dart throws: RB Tyler Allgeier (ATL), RB Tank Bigsby (JAX)
Allgeier thrived in Week 1, but he has fewer than 5 PPR points in the past two games, as rookie Robinson takes over. Jacksonville's rookie back, Bigsby, has a pair of rushing touchdowns so far but only nine touches in three games, which is not nearly enough to rely on for fantasy.
Sit or drop: QB Desmond Ridder (ATL), RB Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL)
Ridder has been held to single-digit fantasy points in two of three games, and he is not worth a roster spot in standard single-QB formats. Patterson (thigh) has yet to suit up and play, but even when he does, he may see a minimal role compared to recent seasons.
Early 2024 draft projections
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Jaguars are projected to pick No. 16 in the 2024 NFL draft, and the Falcons are projected at No. 22. So Reid used those projections to pick a prospect who best fits each team and might be available in those slots.
Jaguars at No. 16: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Through the first three weeks of the season, it's obvious that the Jaguars need pass rush help. Jacksonville is struggling to generate pressure on opposing teams' QBs, ranking 31st in pass rush win rate (30.9%). Robinson's specialty is getting after the passer, displaying good bend, closing quickness and a unique first-step. The Nittany Lions' rusher averages 2.24 seconds to create pressure, the second-best mark in the FBS.
Falcons at No. 22: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Outside of Terrell, the future at outside corner for the Falcons remains unclear. Okudah and Tre Flowers are both scheduled to become unrestricted free agents, and recent fourth-round pick Clark Phillips III has struggled to find playing time. The Falcons have the second-highest rate of man coverage snaps (66.3%) in the league, and Wiggins is a true man-to-man corner who fits here. He has a 37.5% forced incompletion rate, which ranks inside the top 20 in the country.
What to know for betting the game
Line at Caesars Sportsbook: Jaguars -3 (43)
Clay projected leans for notable prop bets in Falcons-Jaguars, as part of his weekly NFL betting playbook.
Expert picks
Seven of eight analysts in our mini panel picked Jacksonville, though four of them predicted a one-score game. ESPN's Football Power Index favors Jacksonville in 52.2% of its simulations by an average of one point.
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Jaguars 23, Falcons 16
Mike Clay, fantasy writer: Jaguars 21, Falcons 19
Jeremy Fowler, NFL reporter: Jaguars 27, Falcons 21
Dan Graziano, NFL reporter: Jaguars 20, Falcons 17
Eric Moody, fantasy writer: Jaguars 34, Falcons 21
Jason Reid, Andscape senior NFL writer: Falcons 24, Jaguars 13
Lindsey Thiry, NFL reporter: Jaguars 17, Falcons 13
Seth Wickersham, NFL writer: Jaguars 41, Falcons 26