NFL Week 4 latest buzz, upset predictions and fantasy tips

Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season is here, and league insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano are breaking down the biggest questions, latest news and notable buzz of the week. Plus, they picked out which teams are on upset watch and which players should -- or shouldn't -- be in your fantasy football lineups.

There have been a bunch of early-season surprises -- who would have predicted the Bengals would be at the bottom of the AFC North through three games -- but what has been convincing enough to already change minds since the preseason? What's new on the Jonathan Taylor front, and will the star running back be traded? Are any coaching seats already heating up? And which quarterbacks could find themselves on the bench if their play doesn't rapidly improve?

It's all here, as Dan and Jeremy answer big questions and empty their reporting notebooks with everything they've heard heading into Week 4.

Jump to a topic:
What we've learned | Taylor trade
Coach hot seats | Benched QBs
Upset picks | Fantasy tips | Latest buzz

What have you changed your mind about since the start of the season?

Graziano: The AFC North. I had the Bengals as the division favorite and Super Bowl winner, but the rough start and the persistence of the Joe Burrow calf injury have conspired to make me think this was not my best pick.

The Browns could be a major factor in the division if Deshaun Watson can just start playing decent football, which he kind of did Sunday. Bringing in Jim Schwartz as defensive coordinator could turn out be the offseason's best addition, and edge rusher Myles Garrett looks primed for a Defensive Player of the Year run. Baltimore will be a major factor, too, if it can find a way to weather this flood of early-season injuries. I still don't think the Steelers have enough on offense, but Mike Tomlin's likely going to coach more wins out of them than their talent might predict. The Bengals' slow start and Burrow's injured leg may end up costing them a lot more than expected.

Fowler: Yeah, the AFC North figured to be one of the game's best divisions, but I'm with you that Cincinnati was expected to lead the charge instead of following the lead -- though the offense showed slight progress on Monday Night Football.

If we're staying with divisions, I'd go with the NFC South. It's better than I thought. The Saints had a 3-0 start in their grasp in Green Bay. Tampa Bay and Atlanta have pretty good rosters, and if they can get enough out of their offenses with Baker Mayfield and Desmond Ridder, they might push for playoff spots.

Graziano: I think the question about the NFC South is all about the quarterbacks. Like, are we sure Atlanta is going to get anything out of Ridder? Because it looks like they're protecting him. Mayfield looked horrendous on Monday night, albeit against a great-looking Eagles defense. Bryce Young appears more overwhelmed than I ever thought he would. And Derek Carr, the one actual proven commodity in the division at the position, has a right shoulder injury.

Bucs-Saints in New Orleans on Sunday is a sneaky important game for potential playoff positioning in the NFC South. After all, someone has to win that division, and I couldn't tell you who it would be at the moment.

Fowler: One team I've changed my mind about is Indianapolis. The Colts aren't far away. The offense has been moving the ball with two different quarterbacks, and if they get running back Jonathan Taylor back on the field -- yes, that's a big if -- it would only improve the attack. And the defense has plenty of talent.

Make the call: Will Jonathan Taylor get traded before the deadline?

Graziano: I'll say yes. From what I understand, he still doesn't want to play for the Colts, and they still don't want to give him a long-term contract. The time since the preseason has mellowed out the market a bit and maybe created more fertile ground for a deal. Taylor has to miss at least one more week while on the physically unable to perform list, but it wouldn't surprise me if his first game of the season was in a different uniform. The Browns might end up being more motivated to make a deal than they want us to believe after the Nick Chubb injury.

Fowler: I think he stays put. For as much as Taylor would like to be dealt -- and heck, the Colts are probably cool with it at this point, too -- I don't see a team that's clamoring to give up a Day 2 pick for a running back.

Just look at the Colts, who are 2-1 with Zack Moss as their leading back. Taylor is much better, of course, and has value. And maybe he's the player to unlock a contender; Cleveland does make some sense, and Browns GM Andrew Berry never shies away from a potential deal. But Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt is a pretty good tandem. Plus, Miami -- a Taylor suitor in the preseason -- is running wild with Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane.

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A lot went wrong in the #Titans  27-3 loss to the Browns.

A lot went wrong in the #Titans  27-3 loss to the Browns. Here are TDs Takeaways from Cleveland Browns Stadium. Video by Turron Davenport

Graziano: I watched Rachaad White on Monday night and wondered whether Tampa Bay might jump in. But then I remembered that you and I together have more salary cap space than the Bucs, and such a move probably isn't feasible.

Taylor is only 24 years old, still young even for a running back, and I keep thinking some team will see him as a difference-maker. But I hear all of your points about why teams don't want to pay for the position, and they're all correct.

Fowler: If teams prefer smaller-scale RB deals at the trade deadline, one option might be Chicago's D'Onta Foreman, who has been a healthy scratch for the Bears despite rushing for 914 yards and five touchdowns in Carolina last season. His base salary of $1.525 million is reasonable. This reminds me of Cam Akers, whom the Rams dealt to Minnesota for a swap of late-round picks.

Hearing any early buzz on coaches on the hot seat? Could Chicago's disastrous start put pressure on Matt Eberflus?

Fowler: At least mild pressure. It's still early enough in the year where any hot-seat buzz is more of a low hum, but the coming weeks figure to be big for Eberflus and Chicago, considering last year's Bears were more competitive than what they have shown so far this year. Chicago brass knew this rebuild would be a process, so perhaps that buys time for the coach who's trying to establish a culture. Selling that vision requires modest progress eventually.

Overall, the expectation is more jobs will open than last year's slate of five.

Graziano: Yeah, Chicago's certainly a spot to watch. The Bears haven't won a game since before last Halloween.

Elsewhere, I think it's a good thing for Brandon Staley in the big picture that the Chargers won Sunday and aren't 0-3, because that's another spot we're going to be watching if that team doesn't make the playoffs. I'm curious about the Raiders, who look pretty bad to begin the year. Do you think Josh McDaniels is in trouble if they bottom out there?

Fowler: It would have to be a pretty colossal breakdown from my view. Owner Mark Davis had a long-term vision in mind when he hired McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler, and moving on would not be cheap. It doesn't hurt to let this one play out.

Graziano: I kind of disagree there. The franchise is in perceptibly worse shape than it was when McDaniels got there. Jimmy Garoppolo is already hurt. Davante Adams is making noise about being unhappy. It just feels like every move that has been made since the Adams trade has made the roster worse, and if they finish with one of the league's worst records (which I believe to be extremely possible), how long will Mark Davis be willing to live with his mistake?

Fowler: What about wild cards, Dan? Kevin Stefanski is coming off back-to-back losing seasons but has the Browns playing inspired football. And Ron Rivera has to win this year in Washington, no?

Graziano: Yeah, I'm of the belief that Stefanski and Rivera both have to win this year. But they're both 2-1, so it's tough to hot-seat them this early. If Watson ever remembers how to play quarterback, Stefanski might even have the most complete team in the AFC North. I'd throw Todd Bowles (Tampa Bay) and Dennis Allen (New Orleans) in the same category as Stefanski and Rivera, as guys who probably need to do some winning this year to keep the seat cool -- but so far so good.

Who will be the first quarterback benched this season?

Fowler: The Broncos-Bears matchup this Sunday has my attention in terms of how long the quarterbacks fit in their respective franchises' long-term outlook. The Bears seem positioned to give Justin Fields a long runway, so I will go with Russell Wilson. Which seems wild -- and it might be. It's not that Wilson has played terribly. He has improved upon last season and ranks a respectable 13th in QBR (59.4) with back-to-back 300-yard games. But Sean Payton doesn't purport to be a patient coach -- especially an 0-4 coach, should Denver lose to the Bears.

The Broncos gave backup Jarrett Stidham real money in free agency this offseason (two years, $10 million). Wilson's $85 million dead money hit in 2024 is daunting, but they could reduce that to $35.4 million with a post-June-1 release, creating a sunk-cost situation. This is mostly spitballing, but regime changes often churn the roster.

Graziano: I agree with you that a Wilson benching at some point this year is not out of the question. At this point, though, he doesn't seem like the biggest of the Broncos' problems. If they lose to the Bears, things are going to get tight out there in Denver real quick.

Ryan Tannehill ranks 32nd in QBR (27.9), and he's in the same quarterback room as a guy who was the 33rd pick in this year's draft. (Not to mention a guy who was the 86th pick in last year's draft.) Things look all kinds of wrong in Tennessee after putting up 94 yards of total offense in Sunday's loss to the Browns. Tannehill is not playing well. Derrick Henry doesn't look right. DeAndre Hopkins doesn't appear to be fully healthy.