Let's finish up my NFL offseason rankings with the top 16 teams added above last week's bottom 16. These are designed to consider what a team did during the offseason to increase its chances of winning a Super Bowl, in the short term and long term, given the roster and resources it had to work with at the end of the 2022 season.
That last bit is very important in considering these rankings, because there are major differences among what each team had to work with. The Bears added much more talent in free agency than the Vikings, but they also had far more cap space to use. In this case, we're not judging whether the Bears added talent as much as we're wondering whether they spent that money wisely.
Likewise, while the Texans came into April's draft with two first-round picks, does history suggest they used those resources wisely? I'm not confident in our ability to evaluate players before they suit up in the NFL, so my thoughts about each team's draft are more about team needs, historical positional value and how they handled trading up and down as opposed to my personal opinion on individual players.
I also need to acknowledge that these rankings aren't perfect. In 2021, I ranked the Packers as having the second-worst offseason, only for free agent additions De'Vondre Campbell and Rasul Douglas to play at a Pro Bowl level. That one was wrong, although the 32nd-ranked Raiders won't look back on what they did that season with much fondness.
Last year, I had the Seahawks pegged for the worst offseason of any team. A year later, that looks foolish for reasons that should seem obvious. Geno Smith emerged from Seattle's quarterback battle and delivered a stunning Pro Bowl season, while a draft class with Charles Cross, Tariq Woolen and Abraham Lucas made an instant impact. The Broncos, who added a franchise quarterback in Russell Wilson, ranked No. 1. If anything, it would have been more accurate to flip those rankings.
Mea culpa! Again, though, I'll stand on what happened toward the top and bottom. I had the Eagles at No. 2 and the Chargers at No. 3, and they both took strides forward in 2022. Likewise, I had the Raiders, Cardinals and Saints in my bottom five, and they each took a step (or several steps) backward. I can't win them all, but on the whole, I hope these are a useful evaluation of how teams in different situations handled the offseason.
Let's start with the team that had the best offseason and work our way through the new additions, finishing up with the bottom 16 I unveiled last week. As a reminder, these are in order from best to worst, and I'm also considering the impact of off-field decisions, which factor uniquely into the organizations at No. 1:
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
1. Washington Commanders
What went right: Team owner Daniel Snyder entered an agreement to sell the franchise. What, you thought this was going to be about signing offensive lineman Andrew Wylie? You can make a reasonable case that no team made a more significant move to aid their chances of becoming a Super Bowl contender this offseason than the Commanders did by beginning to extricate themselves from their disastrous ownership group.
Snyder has overseen things for 24 years. Here's how the Commanders have fared under his ownership versus what things looked like over the prior 24 seasons:
The difference is staggering. Washington went from being one of the league's best teams to one of its worst. The pre-Snyder Commanders had more actual MVPs than the Snyder-era Commanders had of players who received a single MVP vote. They won more Super Bowls before Snyder than they did playoff games after he took over the team. One of those two victories came in 1999, the year he took over the franchise. The one playoff game the Commanders won after Snyder started to reinvent the franchise to his liking came in 2005, in a game in which quarterback Mark Brunell threw for 41 yards. Even in the most successful moment in the Snyder era, things weren't pretty.
All of this is about what happened on the field. It doesn't even begin to consider how the organization's reputation was dragged through the mud by scandals involving inappropriate behavior toward the team's cheerleaders. How the team's stadium spewed fluids onto fans and its playing surface led to injuries. How the organization was forced to settle a lawsuit for allegedly defrauding its own season-ticket holders. How Snyder sneered at the idea of changing the team's nickname until there was a real threat from sponsors. How the team used its PR department to attack the city it is supposed to represent.
The legacy of the Snyder era is just how great it is to be an NFL team owner. Snyder took over one of the most popular franchises and enjoyed virtually no success during his time in charge, and he will make billions of dollars for agreeing to move on.
The team's new ownership group is led by Philadelphia 76ers owner Josh Harris and a group of partners. They will have their ups and downs and make mistakes, as every ownership group does. It would be foolish to assume that they will immediately restore the Commanders and football in Washington to its prior heights as one of the crown jewels of the NFL. It would be even more naive to pretend Harris or virtually any other competent executive would not represent a major upgrade on the outgoing owner. No move this offseason has been more significant.
What went wrong: The deal isn't done yet. Colts team owner Jim Irsay recently suggested he hopes to see the sale completed by the start of the regular season. While that time frame would turn 2023 into either a lame-duck campaign or an audition for the future for the Ron Rivera regime, sooner is better than later.
What's left to do: Figure out what to do with Chase Young. The Commanders declined his fifth-year option this spring. In part, their decision came because he suffered a serious knee injury in 2021 and didn't make it back until December 2022. In part, it's because he hadn't lived up to expectations even before the injury. A late burst in 2020 led to him being named Defensive Rookie of the Year, but the No. 2 overall pick had just nine sacks in his first 24 pro games before tearing his right ACL. That wasn't enough on a D-line with three other first-round picks occupying blockers.
The Commanders have a few options. They could let Young play out his option and see if he turns around things in a make-or-break campaign. They could always use the franchise tag to keep him after the season if he breaks out, although this organization already knows what can happen if it doesn't get a player signed to a long-term deal and play the franchise-tag game. They could try to work out a deal in which Young signs a reduced deal for 2024, as Jordan Love did with the Packers. Young could also be a trade candidate, although it would hurt to trade away a player who was once seen as a franchise edge rusher.
2. Miami Dolphins
What went right: The Dolphins added game-changing players on defense. You could argue the two most significant defensive additions of the offseason were both made by Miami.
On the field, it made a move that would have seemed stunning a year ago by landing Jalen Ramsey. The 28-year-old cornerback on what could be a Hall of Fame track cost the Dolphins only a third-round pick and backup tight end Hunter Long. It felt like one of those deals in which you needed to triple-check to make sure it wasn't being reported by a fake Twitter account.
The Dolphins didn't get one over on the rest of the league. There are reasons why no other team offered significantly more for Ramsey. He wasn't as good in 2022 as he was in 2020 or 2021, with his passer rating in coverage allowed jumping to 84.5. Teams are reticent to make significant guarantees to players exiting their prime at cornerback, and the Dolphins guaranteed him $35.5 million over his age-29 and age-30 seasons as part of the deal. There are teams that remember him literally pulling up to Jaguars camp in a Brinks truck and sitting out with a mysterious back injury when he was angling for a new deal and a trade; it's fair to wonder if the Rams wanted to avoid that kind of spectacle by trading Ramsey, regardless of cost.
At the same time, we saw the Eagles add James Bradberry when there wasn't a trade market for him a year ago, and that helped propel them to a Super Bowl. Even a diminished version of Ramsey was still a very good cornerback last season, and the Dolphins should have a much better pass rush than what an injury-hit Rams team rolled out. Outside of that "back injury" campaign, Ramsey has missed only two games across six seasons. This feels like a risk well worth the potential reward, given that Miami now fields the league's top trio of cornerbacks in Ramsey, Xavien Howard and Kader Kohou.
The organization also made a dramatic addition to its coaching staff by replacing Josh Boyer with legendary coordinator Vic Fangio. The 64-year-old has become the most influential defensive coach in football over the past few seasons, with more and more teams running defenses influenced by Fangio's concepts and hiring his former assistants. Fangio might have been overmatched as a head coach in Denver, but he helped produce four top-five defenses in eight years during his time as a coordinator with the 49ers and Bears. He'll have a deep, talented roster to work with in 2023.
Some of the quieter additions look promising too. Linebacker David Long played at a Pro Bowl level with Tennessee last season, but the organization grew tired of his hamstring issues and let him leave in free agency. Braxton Berrios was a very solid slot receiver when given the chance to play with the Jets, producing yards-per-route-run marks in line with those of Tyler Boyd and Kendrick Bourne. Berrios also should help as a return man. Moving Mike Gesicki out of the lineup for a more traditional tight end in Tyler Kroft or Eric Saubert might be an upgrade for its blocking impact, even if it doesn't yield more receiving production.
What went wrong: Miami didn't do more to address its offensive line. I was hoping to see it add at least one starter to a line that still looks questionable on paper. It brought in depth players in tackle Isaiah Wynn and guard Dan Feeney, which should help, but this team still feels stuck waiting on its top picks to develop.
Last year, injuries limited former first-round pick Austin Jackson and second-round pick Liam Eichenberg to a combined 12 games. Left tackle Terron Armstead, the team's big free agent addition last offseason, missed four games, and he hasn't played a full season even once in the NFL. Adding players to compete and back up those would-be starters makes sense, but I was hoping to see the Dolphins pursue a starting tackle and push Jackson into the swing role now occupied by Wynn.
They could have done a little bit more to protect Tua Tagovailoa. Their running backs were terrible by metrics such as rushing yards over expectation (RYOE), but they brought back Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson. In the scenario of Tagovailoa getting injured, new backup quarterback Mike White is a downgrade on Teddy Bridgewater, who remains on the open market. The Dolphins can obviously be explosive when everything's right, but they could have been No. 1 on this list with just a little more on offense.
What's left to do: Explore the trade market for Noah Igbinoghene. The Dolphins thought Igbinoghene would turn into a starter after using a first-round pick on him in 2020, but they soured on the cornerback after an uneven rookie season and gave him just 17 defensive snaps in 2021. Igbinoghene looked in line to see snaps with Byron Jones injured a year ago, but Kohou beat him out for that role and excelled.
Igbinoghene was eventually forced into the lineup by more injuries and came away with a game-saving interception against the Steelers. But the addition of Ramsey buried Igbinoghene on the depth chart, and the team declined his fifth-year option. Miami wouldn't recoup a significant return for the 23-year-old, but it's worth seeing if a team would be willing to deal a Day 3 pick to take a flier on him.
3. Dallas Cowboys
What went right: The Cowboys used a closing financial window to add two veteran standouts. It has become common to talk about teams deriving value from quarterbacks while they play on rookie deals. For years, Dallas had Dak Prescott making midround-pick money while he was producing as an above-average-to-Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback, which made him one of the most valuable players in all of football.
Prescott famously got paid in 2021, but just as he got expensive, the Cowboys drafted another bargain. Linebacker Micah Parsons is in Year 3 of a four-year, $17.1 million contract with a fifth-year option. He has been taking home an average of just over $4 million per season while producing back-to-back All-Pro seasons and finishing second in consecutive Defensive Player of the Year races.
The player at the top of the edge rusher market is T.J. Watt, whose deal averages just over $28 million per season. Nick Bosa, who pipped Parsons to that DPOY award last season, is likely to become the first defensive player to average $30 million per season on a new deal when he signs an extension this offseason. Parsons is eligible for his own extension next year, and barring catastrophic injury, it should come in somewhere around $32 million per season.
This is the last season in which the Cowboys project to have a player worth $30 million making $4 million, and after releasing running back Ezekiel Elliott, they acted with the appropriate level of aggressiveness. They filled two key holes in their lineup by trading for veterans Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore. The new acquisitions will be paid a combined $22 million in 2023. I'm not sure they'll be around Dallas for years to come, but given that it cost only two fifth-round picks and a sixth-round selection to add players in their prime to a championship contender, this certainly feels like a pair of well-timed additions.
What went wrong: The Cowboys blamed their problems on coordinator Kellen Moore and replaced him with Brian Schottenheimer. They have a habit of getting in their own way. When Tony Pollard breaks out and looks like a franchise back, the coaching staff insists he can't play for more than 30 snaps per game, even though Pollard had a track record of producing well after that point. Team executive Stephen Jones argued during the Prescott negotiations that analytics justified not paying a quarterback too much money, but apparently Jones did not catch what analytics say about shelling out for running backs. You've seen how Dallas' past two playoff games against the 49ers have ended. It's easy to understand the frustration and the desire for the franchise to finally make a deep playoff run, both inside and outside of the facility.
The solution, apparently, is to ax one of the league's best young offensive coordinators. Mike McCarthy inherited Moore when he arrived in Dallas and let him run things on offense, but after three seasons together, the former Packers coach decided to part ways with Moore and has taken over playcalling duties on offense. Schottenheimer, formerly of the Jets, Rams and Seahawks, will move from a consulting role into the offensive coordinator position.
Moore wasn't perfect, but McCarthy's explanation for why the Cowboys needed to make a change doesn't exactly sound inspired: "Kellen wants to light the scoreboard up," he said, "but I want him to run the damn ball so I can rest my defense." McCarthy framed this as a big-picture understanding of football that he possesses as a head coach and Moore lacked as a coordinator.
Is McCarthy right about any of this? I'm not sure. To start, the Cowboys weren't a particularly pass-happy team relative to the rest of the league. In neutral game scripts on early downs, when teams aren't in situations where they are forced to throw or run by what's going on in the game, they threw at the 16th-highest rate over the past two seasons. (I'm leaving out 2020 because Prescott was sidelined for most of the season.) The nine most pass-heavy teams by that measure include both Super Bowl winners (the Chiefs and Rams), the two runners-up (the Bengals and Eagles) and two teams that won consecutive divisional titles (the Bills and Buccaneers).
Throwing the ball doesn't seem to be a problem in terms of game management for those teams. I'd argue the clock management gap between teams that throw the ball at high rates and their run-first counterparts means less than ever before because of how the game has changed. When teams were completing 55% of their passes in the 1980s, throwing the ball led to more stoppages of play.
Now, as teams complete more than 64% of their passes, pass-heavy teams have the ability to control the clock to their liking. Over the past two seasons, guess which team has averaged the most plays per drive? It's the Chiefs, who throw at the highest neutral rate. The Chargers, Eagles and Bills -- all pass-happy teams -- join them in the top five. Patrick Mahomes & Co. have the second-longest average drive length behind the Packers over that stretch. McCarthy is right about the Cowboys having quick drives -- they rank 26th in time of possession per drive over that stretch -- but the solution is to manage the clock more effectively after successful passes as opposed to simply running the ball more.
Have the Cowboys been struggling to close out games because the defense has gotten tired and declined? It's true they have played fast, and as a result, the defense has faced a league-high 400 drives over the past two seasons. If you split how the Dallas defense performs by 15-snap buckets by expected points added (EPA) per play, though, Dan Quinn's unit has actually been remarkably consistent as games have gone along. It actually is best late in games:
It's entirely possible McCarthy's public explanation doesn't align with his private motivations for making a move or that the call to move on from Moore might have been a decision by ownership. I don't think the Cowboys are about to turn into the Falcons when they're paying Prescott north of $40 million per season, but I also don't think they are as pass-happy as they believe.
At the same time, this is the same guy who lost a playoff game with the Packers against the Seahawks with a huge lead because he was trying to hit an arbitrary number of carries in the second half then recited a similar concept to a commentary team in November 2022 with the Cowboys. There's a habit in the NFL, even now, of using the idea of running the ball as a solution to any of a number of problems. The reality of the league's most pass-happy team winning this year's Super Bowl (and last year's winners being terrible at running the ball throughout their postseason run) need not enter the equation. The Dallas defense will be better rested in 2023, but its offense will be unnecessarily worse for that privilege.
What's left to do: Extend wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and cornerback Trevon Diggs. Having two superstars coming due for extensions is a good problem to have! The Cowboys nailed their top two picks in 2020 with Lamb and Diggs, and both are eligible for new deals this offseason. Dallas typically rewards its best young players with new extensions as early as possible to help keep their cap hits as low as possible.
Lamb should be looking at an extension worth at least $26 million per season, while Diggs' new deal should reset the top of the market at $22 million per campaign. If the Cowboys can manage to sign both while keeping their combined average annual value at or below $50 million per season, it would be good work.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
What went right: The Eagles did well to face their new economic reality on defense. In 2022, QB Jalen Hurts was in Year 3 of a deal that paid him an average of $1.5 million per season. After an incredible campaign, he deserved a massive raise. His new deal averages $51 million per year. That $49.5 million difference has to come from somewhere, and while general manager Howie Roseman and his front office can get creative with the salary cap, there was no way around it: They were going to have to cut back somewhere else.
Naturally, that started at positions the Eagles don't typically value as premium spots. Starting running back Miles Sanders left in free agency for the Panthers, replaced by a low-cost deal for Rashaad Penny and a trade for D'Andre Swift. Linebackers T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White were allowed to leave, as were safeties C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps. Gardner-Johnson might have stayed if circumstances had played out differently, but Roseman was able to parlay some uncertainty into security at a more valuable position.
For a moment, it looked like the Eagles might be in position to lose both of their excellent veteran cornerbacks in free agent James Bradberry and Darius Slay, who was nearly released by the organization before eventually agreeing to terms on a new deal. Bradberry then re-signed, keeping together what was the league's best duo a year ago.
Everything with Philadelphia revolves around what happens up front, though, and it's there where Roseman & Co. thrived. It was going to be difficult to hold on to star defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, who left for a massive deal with the 49ers. Little-used trade acquisition Robert Quinn also left, and he remains on the open market, but the Eagles were able to bring back stalwarts Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham on reasonable deals for one more campaign.
On draft night, the Eagles used their picks to land replacements in a pair of Georgia Bulldogs. New defensive coordinator Sean Desai added defensive tackle Jalen Carter and edge rusher Nolan Smith. Both will enter the Philly rotation immediately on rookie deals, which should help keep the defense playing at a high level at a much lower cost.
As always, there's no guarantees here. Carter and Smith could fail to pan out. Roseman isn't foolproof, and many Eagles fans wanted to fire him two years ago for picking Jalen Reagor ahead of Justin Jefferson. The important thing is having a plan and executing, though, and it's easy to see the logic in how Philly approached its first season after paying Hurts his money.
What went wrong: They weren't able to find many bargain replacements in free agency. I liked the decision to target Penny, who has looked like a top-tier back when healthy, but it's fair to wonder if this defense will be strong up the middle. Second-year linebacker Nakobe Dean will step into the lineup after playing just 34 defensive snaps last season, and the favorite to start next to him is former Bears and Raiders linebacker Nicholas Morrow, who allowed a passer rating north of 100 in coverage last season.
Safety will be stretched. Reed Blankenship filled in for Gardner-Johnson when the latter was injured last season, and the Eagles typically suffered in the process; they allowed a 28.2 QBR with Gardner-Johnson on the field, but that mark rose all the way to 52.7 when Blankenship took his place. (Christian Watson's long touchdown catch is an example of how Blankenship can be a liability taking angles and closing down in the open field.) Free agent signing Terrell Edmunds typically played at or near the line of scrimmage in Pittsburgh. Can Desai rely on those two in split-safety looks to each cover half the field?
What's left to do: Add a veteran or two on defense. Roseman is as aggressive as any GM when it comes to pursuing trades, as we saw when the Eagles acquired Gardner-Johnson in a low-cost deal just before last season began. Linebacker and safety still look like problem areas for this team; these are positions the organization could try to address by going after training camp cuts or trade options between now and September.
5. Green Bay Packers
What went right: They landed a haul for Aaron Rodgers. If we take the position the Packers had a strong suspicion they were going to be moving on from Rodgers on the day of the Super Bowl, it's tough to argue with what general manager Brian Gutekunst was able to get in return for his legendary quarterback. Rodgers netted Green Bay a second-round pick in 2023, a jump of two spots in the first round and a pick that will likely become a first-rounder in 2024.
If we play it neutrally and assume the Jets send the No. 16 overall pick to the Packers for Rodgers next year, Gutekunst landed the equivalent of the No. 6 overall pick in a typical draft by the Jimmy Johnson chart or the third pick on the Chase Stuart chart.
Is that fair value for Rodgers? Consider the circumstances. Rodgers is 39 years old and coming off a season in which he was average to below average in most statistical categories. He was considering retirement during the offseason, was due $108.7 million over the next two years and publicly announced he wanted to play for the Jets. The Packers could only negotiate with one team, and they didn't have the financial flexibility to bring him back if the Jets weren't interested. To walk that tightrope and still land a top-six pick in terms of trade value is incredible negotiating.
Yes, Rodgers might be a superstar for the Jets and help them compete for a Super Bowl over the next two seasons. Even if that happens, Gutekunst won a blinking contest with the Jets and got a great price.
Gutekunst also managed to find a team-friendly solution for his second-biggest conundrum of the offseason when he convinced Jordan Love's camp to take a $13.5 million guarantee for the 2024 season in lieu of the Packers picking up a fifth-year option, which would have paid him $20.3 million. In all, the Packers saved about $10 million between 2023 and 2024 with the tactic.
Love has incentives that can take the deal up to $22.5 million, but the idea of the Packers trading Rodgers to free up a spot for Love before immediately declining Love's fifth-year option for 2024 seemed bizarre and unlikely. To convince Love's representation otherwise was a bold negotiating ploy from Gutekunst and one that will likely save the team a few million dollars and increase their flexibility while making Love's contract more cap-friendly.
What went wrong: Green Bay didn't add a backup quarterback to tutor Love. Its depth chart at quarterback now consists of Love, Danny Etling and rookie fifth-round pick Sean Clifford. With 83 career pass attempts heading into the season between the three quarterbacks, the last time a team had this inexperienced of a quarterback room in training camp was ... 2008, when the Packers backed up Rodgers with rookie second-round pick Brian Brohm and seventh-rounder Matt Flynn. All of their combined 59 pass attempts heading into the season had been by Rodgers. Well, it worked last time!
What's left to do: Work on a new deal for Rashan Gary. The 2019 first-rounder was quietly one of the league's best pass-rushers in 2021, as his 9.5 sacks were underlined by 28 quarterback knockdowns and eight tackles for loss. He was off to another good start in 2022 -- racking up six sacks and 11 knockdowns across the first eight games of the season -- only to tear his right ACL in Week 9 and miss the remainder of the season.
Gary already has a raise up to $10.9 million on the books as he plays out his fifth-year option, but Gutekunst should be working on a deal to keep the 25-year-old in Green Bay for years to come. The knee injury might make these negotiations trickier, but at least you know Gary's agents will be making it a priority: The edge rusher is repped by Rashan Gary Sports. This deal should end up north of $22 million per season.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
What went right: The Bengals continued to execute a coherent plan for dealing with their changing roster. When they shocked the world and made it to the Super Bowl a year ago, they had a very clear plan. They invested first- and second-round picks on Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Jonah Williams, giving them possible building blocks at the critical positions on offense.
With those players making peanuts, the Bengals spent millions in free agency to rebuild their defense. They rebuilt their defensive line (Trey Hendrickson, DJ Reader and Larry Ogunjobi) and secondary (Trae Waynes, Chidobe Awuzie, Vonn Bell and Mike Hilton). Some of the moves didn't work, but the ones that did helped spark a deep playoff run. With homegrown talent at linebacker and Sam Hubbard and Jessie Bates playing at a high level, Cincinnati was good enough on defense to slow down the Chiefs for a half and come within a drive of winning a championship.
Things are about to change. Burrow and Higgins are eligible for extensions this offseason, and Chase will follow next year. The three should combine to make north of $90 million per year on their respective new deals. Williams disappointed at tackle and was replaced by free agent signing Orlando Brown Jr., who will add an additional $16 million per season to the ledger. The Bengals' plan has to transition: Instead of throwing draft picks at the offense and spending heavily on defense, they will need to retain their offensive stars and use the draft to rebuild on defense.
Director of player personnel Duke Tobin & Co. are ready. Last year, knowing that Bates, Bell and Eli Apple were approaching free agency and with Waynes off the roster, the Bengals used a first-round pick on safety Dax Hill and a second-rounder on corner Cam Taylor-Britt. Hendrickson, Reader and Awuzie will be free agents in 2024, so Tobin used his 2023 first-round pick on end Myles Murphy and a second-rounder on corner DJ Turner.
Is it a guarantee the young guys will be able replacements for the veterans on more expensive contracts or that all the defensive stars will leave? Of course not. Having a plan and anticipating what the team will need a year in advance, though, is a thoughtful approach.
What went wrong: Did they make the right big swing? Last year, when the Bengals made much-needed improvements to their offensive line, I wondered whether they would be back in the market for help again during the 2023 offseason. As it turned out, they felt they needed an upgrade at left tackle on Williams, who looked like an asset when the rest of the line was flailing and a liability when everyone else was competent.
Brown is better than Williams, but is Brown an upper-echelon left tackle? Patrick Mahomes isn't the easiest quarterback in the world for whom to block, but Brown struggled off and on throughout his brief Chiefs career, with the Jaguars playoff game as a notable example. The Bengals are paying $50 million or so over the next three years for the privilege of finding out, making Brown the eighth-highest paid left tackle in football. That's not a terrible deal, but it does seem telling the Chiefs were willing to move on from him without a ready replacement then on the roster.
What's left to do: Reunite with Apple? He rebuilt his career as a starting cornerback on the Bengals over the past two seasons, so I'm surprised there wasn't at least some market for him in free agency. He is still out there, which seems remarkable in a league in which every team needs more cornerbacks.
The Bengals have Hilton in the slot and a potential top three at cornerback of Awuzie, Taylor-Britt and Turner, but the latter might not be ready to jump right in as a rookie. Awuzie was playing at an All-Pro level to start last season, but he tore his right ACL on Halloween and missed the remainder of the year. If everyone is healthy and lives up to expectations, the Bengals won't need Apple, but things don't often go that well over the course of an NFL campaign. A reunion between the two sides would make sense.
7. Kansas City Chiefs
What went right: Kansas City upgraded the tackles in front of Patrick Mahomes. With Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie both hitting free agency, most teams would have been terrified. Brown, acquired in a deal with a first-round pick heading back to Baltimore two years ago, had been the team's franchise player at left tackle without ever really living up to expectations. Wylie grew into a solid contributor, but he was one year removed from having a modest market in free agency and returning to the Chiefs.
A fair number of NFL organizations would have just settled for what they had; they would have given Brown an enormous contract and kept Wylie to maintain their offensive line continuity. I wouldn't even fault them too much; objective No. 1 for any team with a Hall of Fame quarterback should be keeping the franchise upright.
Instead, the Chiefs dared to get better and probably got there. They originally signed former Jaguars tackle Jawaan Taylor, presumably as part of a move from the right side to an unfamiliar spot at left tackle. That seemed curious to me, but when Donovan Smith's market failed to develop, they brought in the longtime Bucs tackle on a short-term deal to play left tackle. Smith committed too many penalties a year ago and wasn't really ever a great left tackle, but neither was Brown.
With those two sandwiching a strong interior three of Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith, the Chiefs have one of the league's best lines on paper. That's all Mahomes needs.
What went wrong: Are they one pass-rusher short? Veterans Carlos Dunlap and Frank Clark departed this offseason, and while the two edge defenders combined for just nine sacks a year ago, they added 2.5 sacks and eight quarterback knockdowns during the postseason.
General manager Brett Veach went out and grabbed replacements. Charles Omenihu, one of the many Kris Kocurek projects in San Francisco, came over on a two-year, $16 million deal. Veach used his first-round pick on Felix Anudike-Uzomah. Last year's first-rounder on the edge, George Karlaftis, will hope to break out in his second season.
Chris Jones is still here, but as he enters the final year of his deal, how much more can the Chiefs hope to get from their star defensive tackle? He tied his career highs with 15.5 sacks and 29 knockdowns a year ago and played his first full season since 2018. There's no questioning what he can do on the interior, but if he does miss meaningful time, can the rest of what this team has on the line make up the difference? I suspect we'll see Veach dip back into the market for one more veteran here, although it might be an in-season move.
What's left to do: Shop in the distressed corner market. Veach has a long-standing habit of going after cornerbacks with low-cost, low-risk deals, which has yielded mixed results from Bashaud Breeland, DeAndre Baker and Mike Hughes. The Chiefs are set with L'Jarius Sneed, Trent McDuffie, and Jaylen Watson in the starting lineup, but the guys behind them are Day 3 picks with limited or no experience.
I wouldn't be surprised if they go after a highly drafted cornerback who either hits the waiver wire or comes up as a bargain trade candidate at the end of camp. Former first-rounders without starting jobs such as Noah Igbinoghene or Caleb Farley stand out as possible reclamation projects.
8. Buffalo Bills
What went right: The Bills developed a counterpunch on offense. In 2021, the Chiefs seemed flummoxed -- or at least frustrated -- by what they saw on defense. Teams played two-high shells against them, dared Patrick Mahomes to work underneath and capitalized on tight-window throws to create interceptions. Mahomes and Kansas City eventually adjusted, but the Bengals beat them in the playoffs by dropping eight in coverage and being more patient than Mahomes.
The Chiefs made a schematic adjustment after the season. They swapped out Tyreek Hill for a handful of less impactful receivers and forced teams to cover all five eligibles more often. Coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy sent out bigger personnel groupings, doubling their usage of two-plus-tight-end sets last season. And perhaps most crucially, the Chiefs swapped out the tentative running style of Clyde Edwards-Helaire for bruising back Isiah Pacheco, giving them a weapon to punish light boxes. You know what happened next: Mahomes lost his best wide receiver and won his second MVP and Super Bowl anyway.
Enter the Bills. While their offense was still excellent last season, there were too many stretches in which Josh Allen & Co. were inconsistent or didn't have reliable answers from drive to drive. (The playoff win over the Dolphins is a great example of both the good and bad of the Bills' offense.) Some of that was losing offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. Another element, just like the Chiefs in 2021, was teams forcing Allen to matriculate the ball down the field; the Bills went from seeing two-deep shells on 36.2% of their dropbacks in 2021 to 41.5% a year ago. Including the postseason, Allen's interception rate rose from 2.1% in 2021 to 2.6%. Buffalo's Plan B for most of the season was just running Allen, which puts the future of the franchise in jeopardy more often than anybody wants.
Guess what the Bills did this offseason? They went out and got their power back, letting Devin Singletary leave in free agency and replacing him with former Patriots starter Damien Harris. When the draft rolled around, the Bills used their first-round pick on tight end Dalton Kincaid, who can move around the formation and create mismatches on the interior. Kincaid is not a good blocker, but even a middling tight end is going to be more physical than most wide receivers. The Bills are going to use more 12 personnel in 2023, and it's going to give them the counterpunch they lacked last season.
What went wrong: They didn't land a direct replacement for Tremaine Edmunds. It was probably inevitable that the Bills would part ways with 2018 former first-round pick this offseason, especially considering how much the Bears paid to sign the linebacker in free agency. Buffalo general manager Brandon Beane was able to get Matt Milano signed to a team-friendly deal to keep one of the team's two starting linebackers in town two years ago, but Edmunds will make nearly twice as much over the first three years of his new deal as Milano did in his. And Milano is the better player!
The Bills are going with the quantity approach in replacing Edmunds. They used a third-round pick on Terrel Bernard a year ago and took another linebacker at the same point during this draft in Dorian Williams. Tyrel Dodson and Tyler Matakevich are more likely to feature on special teams than play a starting role on defense, while longtime Sean McDermott favorite A.J. Klein is 31, and he played for three different teams a year ago. Is there a starter in there? I wonder if the organization will look at the veteran market at the end of August.
What's left to do: Sign Ed Oliver to an extension? I'm not sure Oliver has ever turned into the player the Bills had hoped for when they drafted him at No. 9 overall in 2019, but he is a useful starting defensive tackle. He already has earned a raise to $10.8 million as he plays out his fifth-year option in 2023, but I wonder whether Buffalo plans on keeping him after this season. A trade is also possible if McDermott likes offseason imports Poona Ford and Tim Settle, although I don't think it would net more than a midround pick.
9. Carolina Panthers
What went right: Carolina got a quarterback and a coaching staff. Trading up to the No. 1 overall pick didn't come cheap. But an organization that desperately tried to acquire Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson, drafted Matt Corral and dealt for Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield finally landed its quarterback of the future. Again, I don't want to predict how players will turn out before they've played an NFL snap, but coming out of this offseason with top quarterback Bryce Young was a huge step forward for the Panthers after the half measures of years past.
I'm more confident in talking about their coaching hires. Everything went haywire for new Carolina head coach Frank Reich in Indianapolis a year ago, but the former Eagles assistant had done excellent work with the Colts up to that point, consistently getting more out of his quarterbacks than other coaches had in the years before or after. New defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero is one of the few people to come out of the 2022 Broncos season smelling like a rose after leading their defense to a 10th-place finish in DVOA.
What went wrong: I'm not so sure about the playmakers around Young in 2023. I'm certain the Panthers didn't want to trade away DJ Moore in their deal with the Bears, but if that was the cost of doing business for a potential franchise quarterback, it needed to happen. Moore's departure left them with Laviska Shenault Jr. as their No. 1 wide receiver. Moves had to be made.
I didn't love the signing of Adam Thielen, who will turn 33 in August, has played one full season over the past four and just finished an inefficient campaign with the Vikings. Seventy catches and 716 yards sounds reasonable enough for a veteran wide receiver, but he ran 656 routes, the second most of any player in football. He averaged a woeful 1.09 yards per route run, which ranked 83rd out of 97 qualifying wideouts. Some of that is a product of playing alongside Justin Jefferson, but Thielen was at 1.69 with Jefferson the year before. Thielen is still going to have a two-touchdown game at some point in 2023, but I'm not sure he is a starting-caliber receiver anymore.
I'm more optimistic about the DJ Chark and Hayden Hurst signings, and the Panthers supplemented those by using a second-round pick on wideout Jonathan Mingo. No issues there. Signing Miles Sanders to a four-year, $25.4 million deal seemed more curious, even if it's more like a two-year, $13.2 million pact in reality.
Sanders has been an efficient running back and is coming off a career year with Philadelphia, but he also was playing behind a great offensive line and was buoyed by the gravity of teams focusing on what quarterback Jalen Hurts could do on the ground. The back's receiving workload also disappeared, with Sanders racking up more receiving yards as a rookie (509) than he did over the three ensuing seasons combined (433). Some of that might be a product of the Eagles' system, but the Panthers essentially gave Sanders the Austin Ekeler contract without that sort of production. Would they really have been worse off if they had just brought back D'Onta Foreman? Or should they have been more aggressive about trading for Ekeler?
What's left to do: Figure out what to do with Jeremy Chinn. A second-round pick in 2020, Chinn looked like a potential star at safety for after his first two years in the league. He took a step backward last season, though, and the Panthers signed new safeties Vonn Bell and Xavier Woods in free agency.
Chinn is probably not going to be a safety whom you want playing the deep half all that often, but he can be a valuable contributor as a box defender. He could even play some snaps at linebacker in passing situations, but Carolina is set there with Shaq Thompson and 2022 breakout player Frankie Luvu. Can Evero carve out a meaningful hybrid role for Chinn? Does the impending free agent's future lay elsewhere.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
What went right: The offensive line got better. A line that has been a liability for years is working its way back toward adequacy. New Steelers general manager Omar Khan imported guard Isaac Seumalo from the Eagles then traded up in the first round of the draft to jump the Jets for left tackle Broderick Jones. Dan Moore has been overmatched over the past two seasons on the blind side; now, in addition to getting a higher-ceiling tackle into the starting lineup, Pittsburgh will have an experienced option at swing tackle.
What went wrong: The inside linebacker cycle churned on. This isn't supposed to happen to the Steelers, and it's a product of one or two moments of awful luck. Ryan Shazier was on his way to becoming the next legendary Pittsburgh linebacker, only to suffer a career-ending neck injury in 2017. The organization traded up in Round 1 to take Devin Bush two years later, but the No. 10 overall pick struggled in coverage even before tearing an ACL. Bush never developed into the player the Steelers hoped, and they declined his fifth-year option before moving on this offseason.
Pittsburgh went the veteran route without much luck, either. It traded for big-ticket Jags free agent Joe Schobert in 2021. He was cut after one season and replaced by another ex-Jags player in Myles Jack -- but likewise, Jack was one-and-done. Now, the Steelers are back with two more veteran inside linebackers in Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts, who will make a combined $9.5 million this year. Tanner Muse, last seen under Kyle Shanahan's microscope in the wild-card round for Seattle, also joins to serve as a backup and a special-teamer.
I'm old-fashioned, I guess. Shazier and Bush didn't work out because of injuries -- and trading up in the first round for an inside linebacker isn't a great idea on paper anyway -- but isn't this the NFL equivalent of Linebacker U? The Steelers are impeccable at drafting and developing edge defenders, with T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith as the most recent in a series of devastating duos. But this feels like a position they could have addressed in the middle rounds of the draft and put their money toward more significant upgrades elsewhere.
What's left to do: Work on a new deal for Highsmith. He had 14.5 sacks last season, but most of them came with Watt in the lineup. Highsmith had 11 sacks across the 10 games Watt played and a more modest 3.5 in the seven games Watt missed in September and October.
Pittsburgh had a 32.5% pressure rate with Watt on the field, which would have been the league's sixth-best mark over the full season. Without Watt? It fell to 23.5%, which would have been the third-worst mark. I don't think it takes a genius to figure out that any team would be worse without a perennial Defensive Player of the Year contender on the field, but the evidence suggests Highsmith is more of a secondary pass-rusher than a true primary No. 1, despite his gaudy sack totals.
11. San Francisco 49ers
What went right: The 49ers landed the interior disruptor they've lacked since trading away DeForest Buckner. When the 49ers dealt the defensive tackle for a first-round pick three years ago, they were making a calculated bet. Buckner was about to get very expensive, and the Niners were going to need to spend money elsewhere in the years to come. Arik Armstead was kicking inside on passing downs and coming off a 10-sack season, while San Francisco general manager John Lynch used the pick he got from the Colts on Javon Kinlaw, who had the physical traits to become a force on the interior.
Well, it hasn't worked out. Kinlaw has been disappointing while missing 26 of 50 possible games over his first three seasons; the 49ers just declined his fifth-year option. Armstead is still a very useful player, but he has a total of nine sacks over the past three campaigns. Solomon Thomas, the team's No. 3 overall pick in 2017, never developed into a starting-caliber lineman and left for the Jets. Dee Ford wasn't able to stay healthy on the edge and never became the second pass-rusher the 49ers were hoping for behind Nick Bosa, leaving them with the all-world end and a deep rotation of solid players.
Now, they have another All-Pro-caliber player on their line. Free agent signing Javon Hargrave created 20.5 sacks and posted a 18.4% pass rush win rate for the Eagles over the past two seasons; the only defensive tackles ahead of him in both categories were Aaron Donald and Chris Jones. No tackle created more interceptions than Hargrave's seven over that time frame. He is a superstar, and the 49ers might rightfully regard him as the final part of the puzzle on defense.
What went wrong: Did they do enough to supplement the offensive line? It wasn't a surprise to see the 49ers move on from 2018 first-round pick Mike McGlinchey, especially when the Broncos gave him $52.5 million in practical guarantees over the next three years. Utility lineman Daniel Brunskill followed San Francisco executive Ran Carthon to the Titans.
The Niners replaced Brunskill with useful veteran Jon Feliciano and brought back center Jake Brendel, but they still haven't done much to replace McGlinchey at right tackle. It appears they are going to move forward with 2020 fifth-rounder Colton McKivitz, who has started one meaningful game over the past two seasons. He got injured in that contest -- a win over the Rams in October -- then played a total of 23 offensive snaps over the remainder of the 2022 campaign.
McKivitz has played 439 offensive snaps over his three seasons as a pro, most of which came as a rookie. Is he ready to be this team's starting right tackle? I'm willing to give Kyle Shanahan & Co. some benefit of the doubt, but I expected them to at least bring in some veteran competition for training camp.
What's left to do: Pay Bosa a ton of money. Coming off of a season in which he was Defensive Player of the Year and finished sixth in the league's MVP balloting, the 49ers really have no choice but to make their star edge rusher the highest-paid defender in NFL history. A big, round number is coming; Bosa should be the first defensive player in league history to average more than $30 million per season on a multiyear deal.
12. Arizona Cardinals
What went right: The Cardinals committed to a much-needed rebuild with a draft-day trade. I'm not sure any team entered the offseason in a worse situation than this one. They were coming off a 4-13 campaign. Their star quarterback, Kyler Murray, tore an ACL in December, and he could miss part of the 2023 season. Years of cap mismanagement and dismal drafting had left them with a moribund roster. Arizona wasn't quite as bad as its record -- it had the point differential of a 5.8-win team -- but it wasn't good in the second half of 2021 and over the entirety of 2022, and it didn't project to play well in 2023. It was time.
New general manager Monti Ossenfort oversaw the beginnings of a rebuild in March, but some of the key decisions were made by default. Arizona couldn't compete financially for defensive lineman Zach Allen, who signed with the Broncos and will net the Cards a fourth-round compensatory pick. J.J. Watt and Rodney Hudson retired. Isaiah Simmons had his fifth-year option unsurprisingly declined. But Ossenfort didn't oversee a truly controversial decision until the team cut DeAndre Hopkins outright over the weekend.
The biggest move, however, came on the draft's first night, when Ossenfort landed a spectacular haul from the Texans for the No. 3 overall pick. Without a quarterback in the conversation, the Cardinals were able to make a reasonable swap of Nos. 3 and 105 for Nos. 12 and 33 while also landing first- and third-round picks in 2024 from a rebuilding franchise. There's a strong chance the pick it acquired lands in the top five and a reasonable possibility it will be the first overall pick in a draft with a potential superstar quarterback prospect in USC's Caleb Williams.
Holding that pick -- either through the Texans or by Arizona's own decision to tank -- would give Ossenfort the option of either landing a quarterback or a mountain of picks in a second deal. As we saw with the Eagles (in their deal with the Saints a year ago), speculating on future picks with teams that don't project to make the playoffs can be a lucrative proposition.
I also liked Ossenfort's focus on shoring up the offensive infrastructure by investing in O-line depth. Arizona brought back Kelvin Beachum and Will Hernandez (after the former Giants guard posted his best season as a pro); signed depth players such as Hjalte Froholdt and Dennis Daley; and used the team's first-round pick on Paris Johnson Jr., who will start at guard but projects as the team's left tackle of the future.
What went wrong: The Cardinals didn't get any return for Hopkins. We're only a year removed from Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill landing their respective former franchises first-round picks and additional selections in trades. Hopkins is 30 and coming off a season in which he was suspended six games for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs, but he posted a 64-717-3 line in nine games after returning, finishing 17th in yards per route run.
Not only were the Cardinals unable to land a significant return for Hopkins, they weren't able to convince a team to send them anything at all. His $19.5 million base salary and the possibility of an acquiring team needing to give him another new contract surely impacted negotiations, but in a market in which Odell Beckham Jr. just got $15 million in guarantees from the Ravens without playing last season, it has to be a disappointment that the Cardinals couldn't land even a midround pick for Hopkins.
What's left to do: Resolve Budda Baker's situation. The best player left on Arizona's roster might be Baker, who requested a trade in April after the organization declined to make him the league's highest-paid safety. He has a $13.1 million salary remaining as part of the final year of his extension with the Cardinals, meaning that any team acquiring him would likely be handing the 27-year-old a new contract as part of the deal.
There's no questioning Baker's ability as a five-time Pro Bowler who has often been saddled with less-than-impressive teammates in the secondary, but this will be a tough negotiation. Safeties usually get paid more on their second long-term contract than they do on their third (after adjusting for cap inflation) because teams want to pay for players' athletic peaks. The Cardinals also don't have much leverage, given that they clearly appear to be doing something akin to tanking in 2023 and would lose Baker as a free agent after the season. Never say never, but it would be a surprise if they landed a pick in the first two rounds of next year's draft in a trade for him.
13. Chicago Bears
What went right: Chicago picked up a good haul for the No. 1 overall pick. The most important decision general manager Ryan Poles had to make this offseason involved that top selection. History will tell us whether he would have been better off holding onto the pick and trading away Justin Fields or vice versa, so I don't think I'm at a point where I can really evaluate that choice.
Given that Poles decided to hold onto his incumbent and trade away the pick, though, the Bears got good value. You could make the argument he should have gotten the most draft capital possible, but landing two first- and second-round picks and legitimate No. 1 receiver DJ Moore is preferable. Moore is under contract for $52.3 million over the next three years, which is about what Terry McLaurin got in his extension with the Commanders and less than Christian Kirk's contract with the Jags. It's hardly out of the question that the Panthers' pick lands in the top five again next year too.
What went wrong: Poles' highly anticipated offseason didn't hit many other premium positions. Adding Moore addressed wide receiver. Great. In an offseason in which Poles had about $75 million in cap space and four of the top 64 picks in the draft, I'm a little shocked he didn't manage to come away with a left tackle or a significant edge rusher.
Start with the offensive line. Poles needed to add help here for Fields and did land some solutions, but they came on the right side with guard Nate Davis and first-round pick Darnell Wright, who wasn't effective at left tackle in 2021 in college before excelling on the right side last season. Adding a right tackle is fine, and rookie fifth-rounder Braxton Jones kept his head above water on the blindside a year ago, but that's a position Poles might need to address next year.
Likewise, while Poles and the Bears added as many as five new players to his defensive line rotation, there doesn't look to be a top pass-rusher in the mix. Last year's team leader in sacks was safety Jaquan Brisker, who racked up four. DeMarcus Walker had seven sacks for the Broncos and inked a three-year, $21 million pact, but this was a player who was available for close to the minimum a year ago. Walker can line up all over, making him a fun player for coach Matt Eberflus, but this team probably still needs two meaningful edge rushers to feel good about what they can do on defense.
The secondary didn't see much help, either, as the only significant addition was second-round pick Tyrique Stevenson. The big additions were mostly at less notable positions; Davis signed a three-year, $30 million deal, while the most expensive signing was the four-year, $72-million pact that landed Tremaine Edmunds from Buffalo. Eberflus needed speed at linebacker after trading away Roquan Smith, and the coach might hope Edmunds becomes his Shaquille Leonard, but Edmunds hasn't been consistently great as a pro. This feels like a case of a team paying a player for what it wants him to be as opposed to what he's likely to be, which usually doesn't end well.
I also can't believe an NFL team will to go into 2023 with PJ Walker and Nathan Peterman as its backup quarterbacks.
What's left to do: Bring in an edge rusher. Under the same logic that led Poles to trade for wide receiver Chase Claypool a year ago as a way of attempting to evaluate Fields, it's tough to evaluate the players in this secondary with so little up front for Chicago. Maybe the Bears won't go for Yannick Ngakoue, but I don't think they have enough to reliably pressure opposing quarterbacks.
14. Denver Broncos
What went right: They hired Sean Payton to be their coach. In light of last year's disastrous Nathaniel Hackett hire, going after the most qualified candidate available was a logical choice. Payton cost a team without much draft capital its first-round pick, but great coaches are bargains.
Payton made the playoffs nine times in 15 years with the Saints, almost entirely in the six-team era. In the years in which his team failed to advance to the postseason, his defenses ranked 27th, 19th, 27th, 32nd, 28th and third in DVOA. The latter season was Payton's lone campaign without Drew Brees, but it would be fair to at least argue the Saints only missed out on the playoffs that year because they were forced to turn to third- and fourth-string quarterbacks Trevor Siemian and Ian Book and went 0-5 in those starts. In other words: If you give Payton a competent defense and don't force him into calling retired quarterbacks in the hopes that they'll return because of injuries, things should be all right in Denver.
The Broncos' defense should be just fine in 2023, as Denver ranked 10th in DVOA a year ago and was even better before a late-season fade. I liked the decision to sign end Zach Allen, who had a breakout season for the Cardinals last season and serves as a replacement for the departed Dre'Mont Jones. There is a really talented roster here, but as you already know from last season, so much depends on what happens with Russell Wilson.
What went wrong: They paid star prices for solid players and solid prices for less. I was interested to see what Payton would do to retool this roster and how aggressive he and general manager George Paton would be in approaching the situation in the short term. Payton's Saints kept the pedal to the metal for years to maximize the end of Brees' career, a tactic that the organization has stuck to even after the quarterback's retirement. Would the Broncos follow the same path?
It certainly feels that way. They outbid several teams with a massive offer for former 49ers right tackle Mike McGlinchey, who will make $52.5 million over the next three seasons guaranteed. McGlinchey has been a good right tackle as a pro but rarely a great one. Likewise, Ben Powers left the Ravens for what amounts to two years and $27 million with Denver. Payton prioritized the offensive line to help keep Brees upright in the passer's late-30s, and the coach has clearly done the same thing with the Broncos, albeit at exorbitant prices.
Those two weren't the only ones. Allen, who played at this level for only one season under new Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph in Arizona, will take home $32.5 million over the next two years. Chris Manhertz, a solid blocking tight end, will make $3.4 million this season. Jarrett Stidham parlayed two reasonable starts at the end of 2022 for a lame-duck Raiders team into $4 million in 2023. Outside of the $3 million handed to running back Samaje Perine, I'm not sure the Broncos got a great deal on any of their free agent signings, even if they were players who will help the roster.
The draft-capital-deficient Broncos also traded up in the second round for wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. and the third round for cornerback Riley Moss. Nobody cares if you trade up and land a star, as Payton would happily point out if you ask him about his move up for Alvin Kamara a few years ago. His deals for Marcus Davenport and Zack Baun didn't go quite as well, though, and we know it's a bad idea to trade up in deals in which you give away draft capital to get a pick now as opposed to later.
What's left to do: Resolve the wide receiver logjam. I can't imagine the Broncos traded up to grab Mims in the second round if they intended on using him as the fourth wideout in their passing attack. It would be a surprise if Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick were all on the roster at the end of the 2023 season. Jeudy was more productive than it seemed a year ago, but Payton's offense typically has funneled through big pass-catchers, including Marques Colston (6-foot-4), Jimmy Graham (6-foot-7), and Michael Thomas (6-foot-3). Jeudy is 6-foot-1, while Patrick, Sutton and Greg Dulcich are each 6-foot-3 or taller.
15. Los Angeles Chargers
What went right: The Chargers upgraded at offensive coordinator. It seems telling when a head coach wants to move on because its offense was too successful. Mike McCarthy thinks the Cowboys played too fast and tired out his defense, but it's hard to argue with the results, at least in the regular season. Kellen Moore took over an offense that ranked 24th in DVOA in 2018 and helped Dallas finish second, sixth and 15th in Dak Prescott's three healthy seasons at quarterback.
He replaces Joe Lombardi, whose downfall in L.A. was his reticence to push the ball downfield with create-a-player quarterback Justin Herbert and the sloppiness that seemed to permeate the offense in key moments. I'm willing to give him some sympathy on the former given the injury suffered by star left tackle Rashawn Slater last season, but it's agonizing to go back to that playoff loss to the Jaguars and watch the Chargers snap the ball with too much time to go on a running clock with a double-digit lead.
Otherwise, the Chargers continued to surround Herbert with everything a quarterback could want. They resisted the urge to trade away Austin Ekeler, placating their star running back in a cold market by adding some incentives into his 2023 contract. For the fourth consecutive season, they used their top pick on an offensive player; this time, it was wide receiver Quentin Johnston, who could give this passing attack a much-needed downfield option. Everything is in position for Herbert: Can he finally make that leap into an MVP contender?
What went wrong: The Chargers didn't really address a lack of depth at most spots on the roster. The story is familiar by now: This would be a championship-caliber team if everyone could just stay healthy, which hasn't happened.
It doesn't feel like the Chargers are prepared for that eventuality this season. Johnston gives the team a solution if Keenan Allen or Mike Williams go down injured, but they are perilously thin up and down the roster. Easton Stick, Joshua Kelley, Foster Sarell, J.T. Woods and Otito Ogbonnia would be forced into the starting lineup if one starter goes down. Every team has a weak spot somewhere, but outside of cornerback -- where J.C. Jackson hopes to return from a torn patellar tendon -- the Chargers could turn to unproven or replacement-level players at the first sign of injuries.
What's left to do: Extend Herbert. His average annual salary is going to start with a five and end with seven zeroes. The number between those two will depend on whether he signs before or after Joe Burrow.
16. New England Patriots
What went right: They hired an offensive coach to be their offensive coordinator. Bill O'Brien's tenure as Houston's personnel czar colored the rest of his NFL tenure, but the former Patriots assistant has generally been effective as an offensive playcaller and head coach at the college and professional levels. After New England moved on from the disaster that was Joe Judge and Matt Patricia running the 2022 offense, O'Brien should be more than competent as he rebuilds quarterback Mac Jones' confidence.
O'Brien didn't overlap with Jones during their respective times at Alabama, but there should be some semblance of a shared language between the two. Going to coach for Nick Saban can help revitalize a career too; Brian Daboll came out of his year as the Crimson Tide's offensive coordinator in 2017 with a much more modern offense than the one he showed with the Browns and Dolphins, and the current Giants head coach has been on an upward trajectory ever since.
Bill Belichick also added new pass-catchers for Jones by swapping out disappointing free agent signings Nelson Agholor and Jonnu Smith for JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki. Smith-Schuster might not ever again be the guy who racked up 1,426 yards for the Steelers in a season, but he is a tough wideout who can still create after the catch. Gesicki, a 6-foot-6 wide receiver masquerading as a tight end, gives Jones size to work with in the red zone.
What went wrong: Offensive tackle is going to be a problem. Can the Patriots make it through the entire season with Trent Brown and Riley Reiff? The two combined to play 32 games last season, but Brown had missed 24 contests over the prior three seasons with injuries, while Reiff hadn't played a full season since 2015 and was mostly a special-teamer for the first six weeks of 2022 with the Bears.
Conor McDermott is the primary backup, and he started the final six games of the regular season a year ago after leaving the Jets. Belichick imported swing tackle Calvin Anderson from the Broncos, but I thought this was a position the Patriots would address with a more significant addition than Reiff or Anderson. New England made it nearly two decades with two left tackles in Matt Light and Nate Solder; it feels like the franchise is going to be in the market for tackles again next offseason.
What's left to do: Narrow down the depth chart at wide receiver. Will the Patriots carry both Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker into the season? Neither did much a year ago, but Parker might be this team's best downfield option, while Bourne was impressive in 2021. Both make north of $5 million unguaranteed in 2023, and neither plays special teams, so I wouldn't be surprised if one of them fell off the roster by the end of training camp.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
What went right: General manager Trent Baalke amassed some bonus draft capital. He moved down twice in the first round and then again in the second round, landing a fourth-round pick and two fifth-round selections in the process. The Jaguars also picked up a future fourth-rounder from the Saints for trading away one of the final selections in April's fourth round, a deal that will almost surely deliver a better pick in 2024. It was a quiet offseason for Jacksonville in a good way.
What went wrong: Last year's spending spree limited Jacksonville's ability to make a big splash around Trevor Lawrence. The Jags were unquestionably better after adding Christian Kirk and Evan Engram a year ago, but paying premium prices for players who hadn't delivered at that level before capped their ability to operate this offseason. I loved the trade for Calvin Ridley when it happened and respect Ridley's upside as a possible No. 1 receiver, but he has been that guy for one season across his first four campaigns.
This is likely Lawrence's final season on a rookie deal before getting a significant raise, and while the Jags can carry over unused cap space into the next year, I would have liked to have seen another significant move. Could they have gone after one of the tackles available on the open market, especially after losing Jawaan Taylor to the Chiefs? Should they have called the Cardinals about DeAndre Hopkins or the Giants about Darren Waller? Could they have added an interior pass-rusher to help Josh Allen and Travon Walker, the No. 1 pick last year? It's a mild criticism, but again: There wasn't much going on in Jacksonville over the past few months.
What's left to do: Resolve Cam Robinson's future. The left tackle was sidelined at the end of the season by a meniscus injury. Even worse, he's now facing a multigame suspension for a violation of the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs. A suspension would likely void Robinson's $16 million guaranteed salary in 2023.
Walker Little is projected to move to the left side, and the Jags used their first-round pick on Anton Harrison, who will play right tackle. If that's how things play out, it would be a surprise if they then benched Little upon Robinson's return, moved Little back to the right side, or kept a $16 million tackle on the bench to play as a swing tackle. There's not a ton left on the free agent market, but the Jags might be better off moving on from Robinson as a result of the suspension and targeting what's left to supplement the rest of their roster.
18. Seattle Seahawks
What went right: Geno Smith is back on a reasonable deal. After his stunning 2022 season, he always seemed likely to return to Seattle. Unlike the Giants, who committed more than $80 million to lock up Daniel Jones over the next two years, the Seahawks were able to get a much more sensible deal done with their breakout quarterback. Smith will make $27.5 million in 2023 and has no further guaranteed money remaining on his deal afterward. It's a nice payday for him and a flexible deal for the Seahawks, who even brought back Drew Lock on a one-year deal to be the backup.
What went wrong: Did enough get done on defense? After a frustrating 2021 season saw the Seahawks finish 21st in defensive DVOA, Pete Carroll took action. He fired defensive coordinator Ken Norton, cut franchise stalwart Bobby Wagner, promised to move toward a more attacking, aggressive scheme, and imported one of the game's brightest young minds in Sean Desai to work alongside new coordinator Clint Hurtt. Seattle then landed a potential franchise cornerback in fifth-round pick Tariq Woolen, who did his best Richard Sherman impression in a spectacular rookie season.
In 2022, the Seahawks finished ... 21st in defensive DVOA. Not ideal. Now, Wagner is back, Desai has left for Philadelphia and Woolen is out until training camp after undergoing knee surgery. Jamal Adams, who missed most of the 2022 season with a torn quadriceps, might not be ready for the start of training camp. Jordyn Brooks just had his fifth-year option declined and is coming off a torn ACL. Wagner and Devin Bush were added to help at linebacker, and No. 5 pick Devon Witherspoon should be an immediate starter at corner, but this defense is already banged up before it has even put on pads.
Does Seattle have enough pass-rushers? Uchenna Nwosu returns after a breakout season on the edge, but the Seahawks ranked 19th in pressure rate even with Nwosu's best campaign on the books. Darrell Taylor's 9.5 sacks weren't supported by his underlying pressure production; can second-round pick Derick Hall make an immediate impact in the same way so many players in last year's class were able to for Seattle? Can Dre'Mont Jones justify a deal worth $17 million per season frequently enough to push the pocket from the interior? The expectations are higher than they were a year ago.
Another old concern is back: Is there enough along the offensive line? The Seahawks used two Day 3 picks on linemen, but starters Austin Blythe and Gabe Jackson departed without significant replacements. Evan Brown and Phil Haynes might be best as the sixth utility lineman on a great offense, but they're likely starters in Seattle. Running back Kenneth Walker's spectacular big plays were masked by one of the league's worst success rates; the line needs to do more to open up reliable holes for him and rookie second-round pick Zach Charbonnet in 2023.
What's left to do: Add interior line depth. Haynes got a one-year, $4 million deal to take over as the starting guard, but despite the Day 3 picks, the Seahawks should still add a veteran in case he isn't up to the task.
19. Cleveland Browns
What went right: The defense turned over a new leaf. After a frustrating 2022 season from Joe Woods' unit, the Browns had to make adjustments. Out went Woods and disappointing veterans Jadeveon Clowney and John Johnson III, neither of whom lived up to expectations after signing big free agent deals.
Lacking draft capital after the Deshaun Watson trade, the Browns had to look toward free agency. Juan Thornhill joins from the Chiefs to take Johnson's spot in the lineup. They also imported two Vikings in Dalvin Tomlinson and Za'Darius Smith. Tomlinson will be an essential cog as Cleveland attempts to fix a run defense that ranked 28th in DVOA a year ago. Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, who will be the team's third pass-rusher, is coming off a season in which he ranked 13th in pass rush win rate.
The biggest addition might be former Lions coach Jim Schwartz, who was last seen as a coordinator with the Eagles during the ups and downs of the Doug Pederson era. In addition to integrating the new veterans, Schwartz needs to develop the young talent on this defense; Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Grant Delpit and Greg Newsome have to turn into consistently effective starters for the Browns to succeed, given how much they're spending on the offense.
What went wrong: I'm not sure they got the right players. Smith looked like a steal when he racked up 9.5 sacks over the Vikings' first nine games last season, but he managed only a half-sack over the rest of the campaign. Injuries caused the 30-year-old to fail a physical with the Ravens before he signed in Minnesota. This is a high-risk, high-reward trade for the Browns, even if they didn't give up much draft capital in the process.
Thornhill's three-year, $21 million deal netted Cleveland a young safety with a pair of championship rings on his résumé, but he was in and out of the lineup for the Chiefs in 2020 and 2021 before regaining his full-time job last season. Are Thornhill and Delpit both every-down safeties at this level? Can Schwartz coax more out of Delpit, who played a conspicuous role in several defensive lapses early in the season, than Woods did over the past couple of years?
I wasn't in love with the Browns' move to trade away some of the draft capital they had left in a trade for Elijah Moore, who fell out of favor with the Jets. Cleveland moved down 32 picks in the process. While Moore looked promising as a rookie, he has already played two years of his rookie deal. With Moore, Donovan Peoples-Jones and a trio of third-round picks (David Bell, Anthony Schwartz and Cedric Tillman), the organization has chosen the quantity approach in attempting to find a No. 2 wideout behind Amari Cooper. I'm not sure it has one.
What's left to do: Bring in a backup running back for Nick Chubb. Kareem Hunt moved on after the season, leaving the Browns with Jerome Ford as the No. 2 behind their lead runner. Chubb was ever-present on 302 carries a year ago, but they need to be prepared for him to miss time, as he did in 2020 and 2021. Leonard Fournette is still a free agent, but this feels like a position they can address during training camp cuts.
20. Minnesota Vikings
What went right: General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah took steps to fix the Minnesota defense. After firing Ed Donatell, the Vikings landed a well-regarded replacement in former Dolphins coach Brian Flores. The league's 27th-ranked defense by DVOA a year ago, Donatell's Vikings were often criticized for being too conservative and comfortable allowing teams to march up and down the field. Flores will be more aggressive.
Tough choices abounded. The Vikings released a pair of stalwarts in linebacker Eric Kendricks and wide receiver Adam Thielen. Patrick Peterson, the team's one reliable corner for parts of 2022, was allowed to leave in free agency. Thielen will be replaced by first-round pick Jordan Addison, while Peterson gave way to Byron Murphy, whose versatility and youth made him one of the more exciting options in this year's free-agent class.
Adofo-Mensah held onto Za'Darius Smith before eventually dealing him to the Browns; in the process, Minnesota ate a little over $1 million in cap space to buy some draft capital, which is a logical move. Adofo-Mensah seems to be pursuing the same tactic with Dalvin Cook, who is owed $11 million in unguaranteed money this year. It would be a surprise if Cook returned at that figure.
What went wrong: The Vikings didn't make a bigger commitment to contending or rebuilding. Given a difficult cap situation, it's tough to feel as if they have a great handle on what sort of team they're going to be in 2023 and 2024, given that they just won 13 games while being outscored by their opposition. They moved on from Kendricks and Thielen but held on to Harrison Smith. They were willing to keep Smith and Cook on the roster into May when that cap space and cash could have been budgeted elsewhere in March.
One significant commitment they did make was to Marcus Davenport, who signed a one-year, $13 million deal with voidable years attached. Davenport has flashed as an impact player during his five seasons with the Saints, but he's coming off a season with a half-sack and eight knockdowns on 490 snaps and hasn't played a single full campaign. You can understand Adofo-Mensah targeting young players with upside in free agency, but even if Davenport breaks out, he's still a free agent after the season. Again: Not a bad move in a vacuum, but it's neither a great short-term call nor any sort of a long-term upgrade.
The Vikings didn't make any move at quarterback with Kirk Cousins, instead using a restructure to create space with a player who will be a free agent after the 2023 season. Their depth chart behind Cousins consists of Nick Mullens and fifth-round pick Jaren Hall. It's possible that the cap situation kept them from making a more significant move and that they didn't love passers Will Levis or Hendon Hooker in the draft, but their future at the most important position in the game remains in question.
What's left to do: Pay Justin Jefferson a lot of money. The wide receiver's new deal should have $60 million guaranteed at signing and $80 million due over its first three seasons.
21. Baltimore Ravens
What went right: The Ravens finally came to terms on a deal with Lamar Jackson. After seemingly negotiating with the team's star quarterback for years, general manager Eric DeCosta finally managed to get a deal done. Jackson will be with the Ravens for years to come, and you need only look at the Commanders and their post-Kirk Cousins flailing to see what can happen if a team lets its quarterback leave for nothing after two franchise tags.
You certainly can't argue the Ravens left Jackson wanting for help, either. DeCosta signed Nelson Agholor and Odell Beckham Jr. and then used a first-round pick on wideout Zay Flowers. With Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely at tight end, Jackson suddenly has one of the league's deepest receiving corps. The move to hire Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken to take over that role in Baltimore should give Jackson his best chance at thriving in a more modern, diverse passing attack than the one he ran under Greg Roman. Of course, Baltimore is now paying a premium hoping that's what happens next.
What went wrong: I'm not sure everything else went well. I spoke to more than one NFL executive who was shocked by the terms of Beckham's new contract. Beckham had been disappointing in Cleveland, ran hot and cold in Los Angeles, tore his ACL in the Super Bowl, and then wasn't able to play a year ago. The Ravens are paying him $15 million for the 2023 season, including $13.8 million up front in a signing bonus. Even if he does live up to those expectations, the Ravens would have to franchise him or give him a significant new deal to stick around after this campaign. There wasn't much on the wide receiver market, but I'd be surprised if Beckham was a $15 million caliber of player in 2023.
Even given those improvements, I'm concerned Baltimore doesn't have enough on defense. Calais Campbell left and was replaced by Bears rotation D-lineman Angelo Blackson. With Marcus Peters unsigned, the Ravens imported corner Rock Ya-Sin, who was disappointing in Indianapolis before playing better while missing six games in Las Vegas a year ago. He's on a one-year deal. Cornerback looks like a problem outside of Marlon Humphrey.
Do the Ravens have a great pass-rusher? Justin Houston is no longer on the roster, and he was the only Baltimore player to rack up more than six sacks a year ago. It's fair to say they deserve some benefit of the doubt given their history of drafting and developing talent, but they're dependent on Odafe Oweh or David Ojabo making a leap and becoming this team's best pass-rusher in 2023. It's possible they might have been more aggressive if the Jackson deal had been completed before the draft.
What's left to do: Add a veteran edge rusher. Houston is still a free agent, as is former Baltimore defender Yannick Ngakoue. The Ravens don't need a star, but a specialized pass-rusher might be helpful.
22. Houston Texans
What went right: The Texans finally landed their quarterback and their head coach. This column takes the agnostic approach in evaluating how draft picks will turn out, but at least Houston is done waiting for its future to begin. In hiring DeMeco Ryans to a six-year deal and using the No. 2 pick on C.J. Stroud, the Texans are out of the lull they were stuck in after firing Bill O'Brien and trading Deshaun Watson. What has felt like an irrelevant team over the past two seasons will be worth paying attention to in 2023 and beyond, and that's valuable in its own right.
I liked some of the moves general manager Nick Caserio made to surround his new quarterback with talent, too. The Texans landed Dalton Schultz on a one-year deal when his market didn't develop. Third-round pick Nathaniel "Tank" Dell should be a useful gadget player. Devin Singletary and Mike Boone have been effective backs when given the opportunity. Houston used a second-round pick on center Juice Scruggs and traded for Bucs guard Shaq Mason, further solidifying the interior of its offensive line.
It wasn't all peaches and cream. Mason had been a cut candidate before being traded each of the previous two seasons, so I'm not sure how the Texans landed on giving him a three-year, $36 million extension. Caserio landed only fifth- and sixth-round picks in the trade for Brandin Cooks and then replaced him with Robert Woods, who wasn't effective for the Titans a year ago. And then, there was that trade ...
What went wrong: Houston valued edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. as a future Hall of Famer with a stunning draft-day trade. Anderson is a great prospect, but the Texans traded a staggering amount to move up to No. 3 and take the edge rusher. ESPN's Seth Walder noted that they sent the equivalent of an extra top-10 pick to the Cardinals to move up. Even if we don't consider what they included next year, swapping pick Nos. 12 and 33 for Nos. 3 and 105, as the Texans did in this deal, is almost a fair swap in its own right.
Instead, the Texans needed to include their first-round pick in 2024. Stroud and Anderson will make this team better, but there's a reasonable chance this pick will land in the top five, and it could even be No. 1. If Caleb Williams lives up to expectations and is a Trevor Lawrence- or Andrew Luck-caliber prospect, the selection could have landed the Texans either an even better quarterback or a massive haul of draft picks in return. The best-case scenario is they traded for a superstar and landed one. Most other outcomes would turn this into a disappointing or even disastrous deal.
Beyond Anderson and the addition of Sheldon Rankins, I'm not sure the Texans did enough to address their defense. Caserio's philosophy of adding umpteen veterans on one- and two-year deals hasn't paid off the past couple of seasons, but he continued to go down that path again this offseason. He signed 18 veterans to one-year contracts this offseason, more than any other team in football.
There were promising signs from Derek Stingley Jr. and Dameon Pierce in the Texans' 2022 draft class, but they were the league's 18th-oldest team a year ago. They aren't old, but teams that win 10 games over a three-year span should be giving young talent chances to grow on the job. Instead, they have aimed to be mediocre and have come up short. I'm not enthused to see that philosophy stretch into another season when it comes to free agency.
What's left to do: Get John Metchie III ready for camp. A second-round pick last year, Metchie missed his entire rookie season after a leukemia diagnosis. He was able to return for Phase 1 of the team's offseason program, only to strain a hamstring in the process. The Texans gave up three picks to move up for Metchie a year ago, so they clearly valued him as a future starter; the 22-year-old could be Stroud's top target by the end of the season if things break right.
23. New York Jets
What went right: They upgraded from Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers. I wrote all about this trade when it happened in April, but I don't think this side of the equation is particularly complicated. The Jets were building around a quarterback who has looked hopeless for most of his career. Now, they have a future Hall of Famer who won back-to-back MVP awards in 2020 and 2021.
Upgrading at the most important position in sports is essential. It's even more important for the Jets, who haven't had a player rack up a single MVP vote in 50 years or won a playoff game in more than a decade. Outside of the Bears, no franchise is more starved for a great quarterback. Rodgers won't be around for long, but with New York returning an excellent defense and a compelling group of young playmakers, you can't fault general manager Joe Douglas & Co. for taking a big swing.
What went wrong: They're paying a lot for that upgrade. If Rodgers gets the Jets to a Super Bowl, nobody will care what they paid. We know they needed to upgrade at quarterback, but they also just acquired a 39-year-old quarterback who just posted the league's 26th-best QBR, wedging Rodgers firmly between Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. For that privilege, they had to do the following:
Trade away their second-round pick in 2023 and what will likely be a first-round pick in 2024. If Rodgers doesn't turn the conditional pick in 2024 into a first-rounder, it'll mean he failed to play 65% of the snaps in 2023, which would be an even bigger disaster.
Moved down two spots in the first round. It seems exceedingly likely that this deal cost the Jets left tackle Broderick Jones, who was poached by the Steelers in a move up to the 14th pick. The Jets landed exciting pass-rusher Will McDonald IV, but they sorely needed an offensive tackle, given the uncertain futures of Duane Brown and Mekhi Becton.
Pay Rodgers more than any other quarterback in NFL history. Rodgers is expected to take home $60 million for the 2023 season. He would earn an additional $49.3 million if he comes back in 2024. In addition to him making nearly $110 million over the next two years, the Jets are incurring the cost of trading away first- and second-round picks, which are themselves worth millions of dollars. The cost of acquiring and playing him likely comes in somewhere around $130 million over the next two seasons, which is a staggering amount of money.
Hope Rodgers doesn't retire after 2023. The Jets are trading those picks for a player who considered retirement this offseason and might very well move on from the game after 2023. Giving up a first-rounder and a second-rounder and $60 million for one season of Rodgers would require them to win a Super Bowl to avoid making this one of the worst trades in recent memory. It's even tough to make the deal work for anything short of a trip to the Super Bowl if Rodgers plays two years.
Add Rodgers' friends to come along for the ride. It's possible the Jets wanted to hire Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator. Maybe they thought it made sense to target Allen Lazard in free agency for $11 million per season. Perhaps they really loved the veteran presence of Billy Turner and Tim Boyle. OK, I won't even pretend that they were going to sign Randall Cobb without Rodgers in the fold.
Rodgers doesn't like the idea that he handed the Jets a "wish list," but it's clear the team made a series of moves to do whatever it took to make its dream quarterback feel more comfortable. Most of those moves are marginal: Cobb has only $250,000 guaranteed and might not make the roster; Boyle is going to be the third-string quarterback; and Turner is going to be the swing tackle.
Well, Lazard is making $11 million per season over the next couple of years when the Jets might have used that money for Jakobi Meyers or JuJu Smith-Schuster, both of whom have been more productive. Hackett's résumé away from Rodgers as an offensive coordinator or head coach has been middling to dismal, and he wasn't the one overseeing the offense or calling plays when Rodgers thrived in Green Bay.
Yes, the Jets needed to upgrade at quarterback. Let's say that they could have had Teddy Bridgewater, who has been perfectly acceptable for teams with great defenses in the past, with his tenures in Minnesota and New Orleans as recent examples. Bridgewater is nine years younger than Rodgers, has been beloved everywhere he has gone as a pro and is still available as an unrestricted free agent.
Born premature with a one percent chance of living, here's Derick Hall's triumphant journey to becoming the 37th pick to the Seattle Seahawks.
Would you rather have Rodgers than Bridgewater? Of course, but that's not the question. The Jets chose between Rodgers and (somebody like) Bridgewater, first- and second-round picks, the right not to have Hackett as their offensive coordinator and about $50 million in money to spend elsewhere on their roster per season over the next two years. If you don't like Bridgewater, plug in Derek Carr and replace that $50 million with $15 million or so to work with per season, or Jacoby Brissett and an extra $40 million in money to throw around each year. You get the idea. Nothing short of peak Rodgers will make this work for New York.
What's left to do: Figure out the Corey Davis situation. Once a prized free agent pickup from Tennessee, Davis has fallen down the depth chart in New York. The wideout is owed an $11 million base salary in the final year of his deal, but none of that money is guaranteed. The Jets can cut him to clear out cap space, but they're likely hoping a team will deal with an injury and send them a draft pick to acquire the 2017 No. 5 pick.
24. Indianapolis Colts
What went right: The Colts finally got their quarterback of the future. Maybe. After months of wondering whether they would be locked out of the quarterback wars with the No. 4 pick in April's draft, they were able to stay put and land Anthony Richardson. Richardson is still a project -- he started just 13 games in college -- but he's the most significant investment in a young quarterback Indianapolis has made since Andrew Luck's departure.
Gardner Minshew is also one of the league's best backup quarterbacks, leaving the Colts some hope if Richardson struggles to adapt as a rookie. He joins the team from Philadelphia alongside new coach Shane Steichen, who should be an upgrade on last year's cavalcade of coaches.
What went wrong: I'm not sure Indy did enough to address the other premium positions on its roster. Does Richardson have enough help? Its offensive infrastructure looks more promising if you treat last season like a bad dream, but if you had to watch the tape, you remember what things looked like. Michael Pittman Jr. went from playing like a breakout star to averaging 9.3 yards per reception. A once-feared offensive line looked past its best and made too many mental mistakes. Jonathan Taylor, the reigning top running back in football, looked a step slower amid ankle injuries after a heavy workload in 2021.
The biggest issue is not addressing the offensive line, which comes back virtually untouched from a year ago. The Colts love 2022 third-rounder Bernhard Raimann's potential as a tackle, but the converted tight end looked overmatched as a rookie and turns 26 in September. I'm not saying they should have given up on Raimann after one year, but the only competition they brought in for him is rookie fourth-rounder Blake Freeland.
Edge rusher remains a conundrum, where general manager Chris Ballard has used picks in the first (Kwity Paye) and second (Dayo Odeyingbo, Ben Banogu, Kemoko Turay and utility lineman Tyquan Lewis) rounds with limited success. This is a critical year for Paye, who ranked 41st out of 49 qualifying edge rushers in pass rush win rate last season; Indy sorely needs someone to level up outside stalwart tackle DeForest Buckner.
Cornerback is an even bigger question mark after the Colts traded Stephon Gilmore to the Cowboys. You can understand why a rebuilding team didn't have a need for a 32-year-old corner -- and Kenny Moore is Mr. Reliable in the slot -- but second-round pick Julius Brents will be competing with late-round picks and replacement-level journeymen for every-down work at corner. The Colts don't have the sort of pass rush needed to keep those corners afloat, and Gus Bradley's track record of building defenses without superstar safeties Earl Thomas and Derwin James isn't promising.
What's left to do: Work on an extension for Taylor. It would be a surprise if the Colts were willing to let him walk after the 2023 season, when he is set to become a free agent. His camp might have looked toward resetting the running back market after his breakout 2021 campaign, but the disappointing season of 2022 might dampen his chances. If Taylor is healthy, Indianapolis should lean on its best offensive playmaker as it works Richardson into the lineup this season.
25. New Orleans Saints
What went right: The Saints landed a quarterback! They would have made the playoffs in 2021 and might have advanced to the postseason a year ago with a more reliable quarterback. Jameis Winston impressed in the first half of 2021 and Andy Dalton was better than the team could have hoped while filling in and eventually taking over for an injured Winston last season, but the Saints ranked 19th in QBR over that stretch. Quarterback wasn't necessarily this team's biggest problem, but it didn't have a short- or long-term solution on the roster.
Enter Derek Carr, who signed what amounts to a two-year, $70 million year deal. The Saints played their cards well, refusing to hand the Raiders a draft pick to trade for their longtime starter before winning the bidding for Carr in free agency. Carr is ... Carr. He took a step backward under Josh McDaniels in 2022, even with the arrival of Davante Adams into the mix, but he's a safe pair of hands and typically one of the league's best fourth-quarter signal-callers.
If his interception rate from a year ago (2.8%) regresses back toward his career average (1.9%), he should be just fine in New Orleans. With the Buccaneers rebuilding, the NFC South is up for grabs: Carr and a defense that ranked eighth in DVOA a year ago should be enough on paper for the Saints to be favored in the race for a division title.
What went wrong: They continue to be all-in. Isn't it time for the Saints to face facts? They've won one playoff game over the past four seasons, a home victory over Mitch Trubisky and the Bears. Drew Brees and Sean Payton are gone. This was the league's oldest team a year ago, and it nearly dealt away a top-five pick when it picked up an extra first-rounder from the Eagles in last year's draft.
The Saints could have begun the difficult process of rebuilding by moving on from some of their veterans and starting to clear out cap space. Instead, they signed Carr and continued to kick their cap problems into the future. Just about every player who was under contract for 2023 is still on the roster with a restructured deal.
In the case of Ryan Ramczyk and Marshon Lattimore, restructuring is no big deal. They're still in the prime of their respective careers. Too many of the moves, though, lock the Saints further into players whose deals are already underwater. Michael Thomas has 609 receiving yards over the past three seasons; they initiated the process to cut him and then brought him back for $10 million, in part to avoid dealing with the dead money on his deal this season. Alvin Kamara has averaged 3.9 yards per carry (and -0.3 rush yards over expectation) over the past two seasons. Cameron Jordan ranked last among edge rushers in pass rush win rate a year ago. Andrus Peat took a reduced salary, but he hasn't been good or healthy over the past two years. How many of these guys are going to be better this season?
The Saints have added Carr to their core ... and cut back elsewhere. They lost virtually all of their defensive tackle rotation and pass-rushers Marcus Davenport and Kaden Elliss this offseason. General manager Mickey Loomis used his top two picks on defensive linemen Bryan Bresee and Isaiah Foskey, but using draft capital to stem the tide is no guarantee of success; Davenport never lived up to expectations after the team traded two first-round picks to acquire him in 2018, and 2021 first-rounder Payton Turner has been anonymous over his first two campaigns.
On top of all that, it's the little things that don't add up. Jamaal Williams was a fun player for the Lions last season, but was there a better use of resources for the Saints than giving Williams a three-year, $12 million pact to be part of the running back rotation? Given how much draft capital they've dealt away in years past, was it really smart to move up twice in the fourth round for Nick Saldiveri and Jake Haener?
With all of that being said, the Saints are still probably in position to win the NFC South. If that's the organization's primary goal for 2023, it is in better shape to achieve its dreams, and that's fine. If the goal is to win a Super Bowl, though? This team isn't close even after adding Carr, and that's not where a team should want to be with a terrible cap situation and the oldest roster in the league.
What's left to do: Wait to see what happens with Kamara. The five-time Pro Bowler is facing a possible suspension after being charged with battery after an altercation in Las Vegas. A suspension would have voided his $9.4 million base salary for 2023, but the Saints have already converted that to a bonus to create cap space. They would be responsible for $24.7 million in dead money if they cut him after any possible suspension, but $16.7 million of that would fall onto next year's cap.
26. Atlanta Falcons
What went right: The Falcons used their newfound cap space to address the defense. They have fielded an above-average defense by DVOA just once over the past decade, and even that was only a 14th-place finish in 2020. They've ranked 30th in the league in each of Arthur Smith's first two seasons as coach, in part because of cap constraints from the decisions made by the prior regime.
Blessed with breathing room financially for the first time in his tenure, general manager Terry Fontenot went to work. The big signing was star safety Jessie Bates, who helped rebuild the culture in Cincinnati after the Bengals bottomed out early in his career. The Falcons could have as many as seven new veteran starters on the defensive side of the ball with Bates, Calais Campbell, David Onyemata, Bud Dupree, Kaden Elliss, Mike Hughes and Jeff Okudah.
What went wrong: Is this a long-term solution? The Falcons are better on defense, but you could take issue with some of the choices they made. Bates is a great player in the prime of his career, but can you say that about anybody else in that list above? Campbell is a legend, but he's 36. Onyemata and Dupree are 30, and the latter missed some or all of 15 games over his two disappointing seasons in Tennessee. Elliss had played 196 defensive snaps before a seven-sack season a year ago. Hughes and Okudah are joining from Detroit, which just fielded the worst pass defense in football and decided to overhaul its secondary.
Will Atlanta be better on defense in 2022? Yes. There's also a chance that the only players from this group on the 2024 team will be Onyemata and Bates, though, and that the Falcons will be back in the same position a year from now. If they were the Chiefs, going out and getting Campbell and Dupree to play situational roles would make sense. As a team with Desmond Ridder at quarterback, I was hoping they would make more consequential moves to add players who will be around for years to come.
Speaking of Ridder, the Falcons didn't bring in significant competition for their young quarterback, with Taylor Heinicke joining from Washington to serve as the backup. Has Ridder, a third-round pick in 2022, earned that sort of free path toward the starting role? He started four games last season, one of which came against the Saints, where he threw the ball 26 times ... for 97 yards.
Ridder averaged 6.2 yards per attempt across those four starts, and although he didn't throw an interception, he did lose two fumbles. The Falcons went 2-2 with him at the helm, but the only starting quarterback he faced for an entire game during that stretch was Andy Dalton. The Ravens fielded Tyler Huntley; the Cardinals started (and nearly won with) David Blough; and the Bucs removed Tom Brady in the second quarter of a meaningless game to run out Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Trask.
Ridder deserves more time, but this feels like a Davis Mills situation, where a team talks itself into a third-round pick looking passable down the stretch and doesn't do more to be competitive at quarterback if that player fails to work out.
You probably know how I feel about Atlanta drafting Bijan Robinson with the No. 8 pick, even if he does turn into a superstar.
What's left to do: Work on a new deal for A.J. Terrell. One of the team's few building blocks on the defensive side of the ball, Terrell was dominant in 2021 before taking a step backward a year ago. He's still one of the league's best young cornerbacks, however, and the 2020 first-rounder is now eligible for a new deal. His new contract should average more than $20 million per season.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What went right: The defense returns mostly intact. The Bucs entered the offseason in terrible cap shape and only got squeezed harder by Tom Brady's second retirement. The team is absorbing $35 million in dead money for Brady on its 2023 cap, which is more than 25 other teams have in dead money for their entire roster. It has a league-high $74.3 million in dead money on its cap this year.
Despite those limitations, general manager Jason Licht managed to find a way to bring back Lavonte David and Jamel Dean, with the latter coming off his best pro season. Of the 11 defenders who led the team in snaps a year ago, eight will return in 2023. That doesn't include Shaquil Barrett, who missed most of last season with a torn Achilles, but it does include Devin White, whose trade request has not led to any movement.
What went wrong: The Bucs have a roster otherwise built to compete mismatched with the league's worst quarterback situation. The NFL's second-oldest team a year ago with Brady at quarterback, Tampa Bay was inevitably going to be stuck in this situation when he retired. It understandably used its cap space to try to build a winner around Brady and landed a Super Bowl title. Like the Rams, you can't fault the philosophy when the results delivered a championship.
All of that's true, but it doesn't make right now any easier for the Bucs. They are priced into keeping around their core contributors on both sides of the ball for cap reasons, which leads them to do even more cap gymnastics to squeeze out deals for their free agents-to-be. Licht had to move on from Shaq Mason, Leonard Fournette, Donovan Smith and Akiem Hicks, but the Bucs still have a roster capable of competing in the NFC South.
Well, except for one big problem: This is a dreadful group of quarterbacks. Kyle Trask, a 2021 second-rounder, had inspired underwhelming reports in Tampa before making his NFL debut in Week 18 last season, when he went 3-for-9 in garbage time of a loss to the Falcons. He wasn't going to play ahead of Brady, of course, but nothing about his first two seasons tells us he's ready to be a starter.
The Bucs understandably brought in competition for Trask, but their choice was to import Baker Mayfield, the NFL's worst passer in 2022. While Mayfield's nationally televised win over the Raiders just days after joining the Rams was one of the most entertaining upsets of the season, he was dreadful across his two teams. His league-worst QBR came in at 24.6. If we expand the measure to include backups, Mayfield trailed Joe Flacco, Sam Ehlinger and Skylar Thompson. He wasn't much better while battling a shoulder injury in 2021.
Mayfield needs just about everything around him to be right to succeed. Receivers aside, this isn't that sort of team on offense. The line is rebuilding, and after the Bucs fired Byron Leftwich, they replaced their offensive coordinator with Dave Canales, who will be calling plays for the first time after spending over a decade in Seattle. It's tough to imagine Tampa Bay wouldn't have been better off with Jacoby Brissett or Teddy Bridgewater, the latter of whom remains unsigned.
What's left to do: Extend Tristan Wirfs. Tampa Bay's first-round pick in 2020, he has excelled at right tackle since entering the NFL. With the Bucs releasing oft-penalized Smith for cap reasons, the expectation is now that Wirfs will move to left tackle and Luke Goedeke will shift from guard to right tackle. If Wirfs excels in his new role, he'll only get more expensive. Better to try to get a deal done now, even if Wirfs ends up landing more than $21 million per season.
28. Detroit Lions
What went right: The Lions rebuilt their secondary. The pass defense -- which ranked 32nd in QBR -- likely cost them a playoff spot last season. Aaron Glenn's unit was 11th in pressure rate, but the secondary cycled through players and didn't have a corner it trusted as a consistently reliable option.
General manager Brad Holmes noticed. Out went 2020 No. 3 pick Jeff Okudah, Mike Hughes and Amani Oruwariye, three of the team's top four corners. In their place? Holmes signed Cameron Sutton, who was a top-10 corner in coverage last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats data. C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who tied for the league lead in interceptions last season, was added to play safety and some slot corner. Emmanuel Moseley, a solid corner for the 49ers when healthy over the past few seasons, was brought in, and Brian Branch, who fell to the second round of the draft, gives Glenn another playmaker in the secondary. So yeah, Holmes addressed this team's biggest weakness.
What went wrong: Detroit otherwise repeatedly prioritized the league's least valuable positions. Secondary aside, it didn't do much in free agency. It let franchise spark plug Jamaal Williams leave and replaced him with David Montgomery on what is likely to be a two-year deal in the $12 million range; Montgomery has failed to average 4.0 yards per carry as a pro. Alex Anzalone, who has posted solid numbers in coverage over the past two seasons, was brought back on a similarly sized pact.
That would all be fine, but what happened next seemed to beggar belief. The Lions used their two first-round picks on players at those same positions; they traded down and used the 12th pick on running back Jahmyr Gibbs before taking off-ball linebacker Jack Campbell at No. 18. I covered how running backs have been low-ceiling, low-reward picks in my pre-draft piece on Bijan Robinson, while Campbell was the only off-ball linebacker drafted before the third round. It's difficult to imagine the Lions couldn't have addressed the position with Drew Sanders or Trenton Simpson later while using their first-rounder on a premium position, such as edge rusher.
Their second-round picks were at positions of need, but Holmes again went for some of the lowest-value positions in football in safety (Branch) and tight end (Sam LaPorta). The Lions didn't come out of this draft with an edge rusher to play across from Aidan Hutchinson or any other front seven help beyond Campbell. They did use a third-round pick on Hendon Hooker, who could replace Jared Goff in the long term if the team sours on its starting quarterback, but he is already 25 and is recovering from a torn ACL.
Even the additions in the secondary aren't quite as compelling as they might seem at first glance. Gardner-Johnson signed a one-year deal and didn't appear to have a significant multiyear market around the league after his breakout season in Philadelphia. Moseley, also on a one-year deal, has missed 22 games over the past three seasons with injuries. The Lions are unquestionably better in the secondary, but it wouldn't be a surprise if they were back in the cornerback market in 2024.
Remember: I'm basing this on what each team had to work with heading into the offseason. There were few teams in a more desirable spot than the Lions, who had cap flexibility and came into the draft with two first- and two second-round picks. They even added another second-rounder when they moved down in a deal with the Cardinals. Somehow, though, they came out of the offseason without adding a single player at a premium position.
Are the Lions likely to be better in 2023? Absolutely. They should be the favorites in the NFC North. In the long term, though, this was their best chance to add difference-makers over the next four to six years at positions that are hard to find in the later rounds of the draft or on the cheap in free agency. You might argue that Holmes didn't need to add a wide receiver or an offensive tackle -- and maybe Detroit is thrilled with Goff -- but we know that needs pop up at those positions quicker than you think. (Holmes' former employers in Los Angeles can attest to that.) Detroit does need long-term help on the edge and at cornerback, positions that went unaddressed here. I think the Lions hurt their chances of winning a title at the expense of building a better 22-man starting lineup for 2023.
What's left to do: Add an edge rusher. Rookie James Houston had eight sacks in just seven games last season, but the sixth-round pick doesn't have underlying numbers supporting that sort of production and I wouldn't want to count on him being that player in 2023. Romeo Okwara has played just nine games over two seasons while battling a torn Achilles. With Yannick Ngakoue and Frank Clark still available, I'd love to see the Lions bring in another pass-rusher.
29. New York Giants
What went right: The Giants brought in a variety of receivers for Daniel Jones, but I'm not sure they landed that No. 1 guy who might have been on general manager Joe Schoen's list. Still, after running out Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, Richie James and Daniel Bellinger as primary receivers in a playoff victory last season, Schoen has added a whole fleet of playmakers to the passing game this offseason.
Hodgins, Slayton and Bellinger return, but New York also brought back Sterling Shepard, who is recovering from a torn ACL. Parris Campbell, who finally stayed healthy with the Colts last season, was added in free agency. Schoen then used a third-round pick on speedster Jalin Hyatt, who was projected as a potential first-round pick by some and adds the sort of quickness that only Slayton really had on this roster previously. With gadget receiver Wan'Dale Robinson eventually returning from his own torn ACL, the Giants should be able to sort through this mix and find three starting wideouts as the season goes along.
The biggest addition was former Raiders tight end Darren Waller. I can't fault Schoen for using a third-round pick to acquire Waller, given his production over 2020 and 2021, but Waller turns 31 in September and has played more than 50% of the offensive snaps just 16 times over the past two seasons because of various injuries. New York isn't locked into Waller for long if it doesn't work out, but it has to treat him as more of a luxury than a true top option.
What went wrong: The organization appears to have bought into its own hype. An unexpected trip to the postseason and a road victory once they got there was a pleasant surprise for the Giants, who had been treating 2023 as a year to get their salary cap right and begin a rebuild. Their underlying performance wasn't quite as impressive; they were outscored on the season and finished 21st in DVOA. They went 8-4-1 in games decided by eight or fewer points and were lucky to draw an even worse playoff opponent in the Vikings, whose DVOA ranked them as the sixth-worst team in the league.
In response, the Giants appear to be running it back. They franchise-tagged Saquon Barkley and committed to Jones, signing the same player who wasn't worth a fifth-year option 12 months earlier to a four-year, $160 million deal with $81 million guaranteed over the first two seasons. They brought back Slayton and Shepard, who seemed to be on the way out, and while those weren't major deals, the move for Jones certainly was just that.
Jones ranked sixth in Total QBR last season, so I won't be arguing that he played poorly. In terms of Jones' development, though, coach Brian Daboll squeezed just about everything out of him. The 2019 first-rounder threw the shortest average pass of any quarterback (6.0 air yards per attempt), which helped drop his interception rate to an unsustainably-low mark of 1.1%. Jones was incredible as a scrambler, but his 708 rushing yards nearly doubled his career rushing total from Years 1 through 3. He averaged just 6.8 yards per attempt and still managed to take sacks on nearly 9% of his dropbacks. Plus, he attempted just 29.5 passes per game.
On a rookie deal, that sort of production is incredibly valuable. At $40 million per year, it wouldn't be a good use of resources. Jones has to improve as a passer to justify that sort of contract, and the steps he has to take as a downfield thrower and a post-snap processor likely open him up to the turnovers he avoided in 2022.
The cap space the Giants were supposed to be clearing last year went to Jones and Barkley, which limited what they could do to upgrade a defense that ranked 29th in DVOA last season. I liked the addition of A'Shawn Robinson to one of the league's worst rush defenses, but a four-year, $40 million deal for off-ball linebacker Bobby Okereke was too aggressive at a position where the majority of useful players settled for much smaller commitments. Schoen used the team's first-round pick on much-needed cornerback Deonte Banks, but this secondary is going to struggle against an NFC East full of imposing receivers.
What's left to do: Resolve the Barkley situation. The Giants haven't sounded close to a deal with their star back, who had his best season since 2018 while playing out his fifth-year option. It's reasonable to wonder whether committing a long-term deal to him would be a good idea given his injury history, but he helps the Giants overcome their lack of impactful playmakers at wide receiver. Barkley playing out the 2023 season on the tag feels like the most likely outcome.
30. Las Vegas Raiders
What went right: The Raiders actually addressed their defense in the first round. Using a first-round pick on edge rusher Tyree Wilson landed them a long-term replacement for free agent disappointment Chandler Jones, who is likely to be released after the 2023 season. Coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler didn't inherit much on the defensive side of the ball a year ago beyond Maxx Crosby, but going after a potential difference-maker at a critical position made sense for the roster in the long term, even if it wasn't their most obvious need for the coming season.
What went wrong: The Raiders continued to make many of the same mistakes. For a team that whiffed on a generation of draft picks during the Jon Gruden era and traded away its top two picks in a foolishly aggressive move for Davante Adams last offseason, Las Vegas continued to give away draft capital to trade up this year. (Adams is reportedly already displeased with the organization, just 12 months into a five-year, $140 million deal.)
This team moved up in the second round (for Michael Mayer) and fourth round (twice, for Jakorian Bennett and for Aidan O'Connell). These weren't dramatic moves from the coach who once moved up for Alphonso Smith and traded away the pick the Seahawks would use on Earl Thomas, but it's the attitude toward picks that feels so off-putting. The Raiders aren't a player away. They need cheap, homegrown talent more than any other team. If anything, they should have been trying to move down.
Jakobi Meyers is an underrated player, but I'm not sure the Raiders' foray into free agency should have been for a wide receiver when they already had Adams and Hunter Renfrow. Meyers and Renfrow are best in the slot, but now one of them will have to shift outside, which might limit their effectiveness. Josh Jacobs, whom the organization was ready to move on from a year ago, was retained on the franchise tag. One year after loading up on playmakers and having the season fall apart because they didn't have enough elsewhere, it feels as if the Raiders are just trying to push the square peg more forcefully into the round hole.
I'm including the downgrade from Derek Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo here, given that Carr was still on the roster at the Super Bowl. Carr's no-trade clause, which the Raiders handed him in their "contract extension" a year ago, prevented them from finding a trade partner for their deposed starter and cost them a useful quarterback for nothing. Garoppolo might be about as good as Carr when he's on the field, but his dire track record of staying healthy looms for a team that hasn't exactly committed to rebuilding. (And he reportedly had surgery on his foot in March).
For a guy who reportedly once said he could "turn a high school quarterback into an All-Pro" before using a first-round pick on Tim Tebow, McDaniels is resorting to becoming Patriots West, with the Raiders importing Garoppolo, Meyers and Brian Hoyer this offseason. Maybe they can get new partial team owner Tom Brady to fill in if Garoppolo gets injured.
What's left to do: Resolve the Jacobs situation. Although he was legitimately impactful last season, it was an outlier. Paying for that level of play on a multiyear deal would be aggressive for a team with too many needs elsewhere; Doug Martin's contract after a breakout fourth season with the Bucs is an example of how that can go south. Bill Belichick is confident in his ability to find valuable backs on the cheap; McDaniels should follow his old boss's tactic.
31. Los Angeles Rams
What went right: The Rams pulled the rip cord on an aggressive rebuild. They are virtually unrecognizable from the team we saw last season, let alone the one that won the Super Bowl on home turf 15 months ago. It can't be easy for an organization that had been successful for nearly the entirety of the Sean McVay era to admit it wasn't going to be able to get back with its core, but L.A. moved on from Jalen Ramsey, Leonard Floyd and Bobby Wagner this offseason. The Rams ate money to deal away Allen Robinson, too.
Now they have $32.6 million in cap space for the 2024 season, giving general manager Les Snead meaningful flexibility in a city that is always going to attract free agents. They also traded down twice in the third round of April's draft, landing sorely needed draft capital in the process.
What went wrong: The Rams are stuck between stations. Moving on from their veterans made sense, but they still held on to some of their core in the hopes those players could be difference-makers in 2024 and 2025. Aaron Donald is 32. Matthew Stafford is 35. Cooper Kupp is 29. Tyler Higbee is 30. Donald is a once-in-a-generation player and could still be productive in 2024, but he also could have netted the team serious draft picks. (To be fair, Donald does have a no-trade clause, but there were no suggestions the Rams were considering trading him.)
If you're keeping those guys, there's a way to build around them without compromising 2024 flexibility. The Rams could sign players to short-term deals or go after players who were cut by other teams to avoid missing out on compensatory selections. Targeting free agents in their mid-20s would have been one way to add contributing help, considering they will be trying to start back up after what projects to be a difficult 2023.
Instead, the Rams ... didn't sign anyone? The only free agent they imported from another team is backup quarterback Brett Rypien, who projects to be the third quarterback behind Stafford and rookie Stetson Bennett. Snead finally used an early pick on an offensive lineman when he drafted guard Steve Avila, but he didn't make any other significant investments to supplement a line that didn't look good on paper even before being destroyed by injuries a year ago.
All of that would be fine if the Rams had done much on defense, but even after moving on from key players at each level this offseason, they have not added a single veteran on that side of the ball. They will be running out Donald and a defense full of players on rookie deals. It's one thing to do that when they have first-round picks there, but they project to start five Day 3 picks in the secondary and a rotation of Day 3 picks and practice squad additions on the edge this upcoming season. Defensive coordinator Raheem Morris should be applying for hazard pay.
If the Rams are tanking for local quarterback Caleb Williams (USC), nobody would fault their choice. But by keeping Donald, Stafford and Kupp in the same division with the Cardinals, they project to be just good enough to avoid landing a top-five pick in next year's draft. And although we know the Rams have no qualms about dealing multiple first-rounders to land the star they want, there might not be any trade package that lands them Williams if a quarterback-needy team holds the No. 1 pick.
What's left to do: Add literally any defensive player. Throw Morris a bone. I've advocated for John Johnson III, the 27-year-old safety who excelled in Los Angeles before a frustrating run in Cleveland. Eli Apple was a starting corner on a good defense in Cincinnati last season. Edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue is 28 and could net something at the trade deadline if he gets hot playing next to Donald. It's difficult to think of a more inexperienced defense than what the Rams are set to roll out next to their future Hall of Famer.
32. Tennessee Titans
What went right: New general manager Ran Carthon cleared out veterans who weren't living up to expectations. While the Titans are only a year removed from finishing as the 1-seed in the AFC, their second-half collapse in 2022 spurred the firing of GM Jon Robinson and an aggressive retooling. Carthon & Co. released Taylor Lewan, Bud Dupree, Robert Woods and Zach Cunningham, moves that all made sense financially but might have been avoided by a team hoping to compete in 2023.
Carthon mostly stuck to importing former 49ers players, as he signed Daniel Brunskill, Azeez-Al Shaair and Arden Key (who was in San Francisco before spending last season with the Jaguars). Key is an underrated edge rusher, and none of those contracts was unreasonable. Hoping to rebuild the offensive line, the Titans used their first-round pick on Peter Skoronski, who should start at guard before possibly moving to left tackle. Carthon also moved up in the second round to grab Will Levis, who could start at quarterback for Tennessee in 2024.
What went wrong: I'm not sure whether the Titans are rebuilding. The two moves hanging over the organization's head all offseason still haven't been resolved, as Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry are still on the roster. Both are entering the final year of their respective deals and have declined over the past two seasons. Tannehill is 34 and Henry is 29; are they really going to be pushing this team forward next season, let alone in 2024 and beyond? Kevin Byard was asked to take a pay cut, but after he called Tennessee's bluff, the team kept its starting safety on the roster.
Holding on to those three players compromised the moves Carthon could have made as he rebuilt the roster. The Titans needed a new left tackle after cutting Lewan, but the addition of Andre Dillard saw Carthon pay $10 million for a 2019 first-round pick who didn't develop into a starter under standout offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland in Philadelphia. Is Dillard really likely to be better in Tennessee? A secondary that has missed on draft picks and free agent signings added only Sean Murphy-Bunting on a one-year deal.
At the league's most critical positions -- quarterback, offensive tackle, wide receiver, edge rusher and cornerback -- the Titans are deficient. In past years, they were able to make up for that with what they had elsewhere, including with Henry, Byard, Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry and an excellent interior offensive line. Simmons is a superstar, but Tennessee desperately needs Dillard, Harold Landry III and Treylon Burks to join him at that level in 2023.
What's left to do: Add a receiver. Burks flashed at times during his rookie season, but he's going to be asked to be the focal point of the passing attack in 2023, which is a big lift for a player who had 444 receiving yards. Chigoziem Okonkwo was a pleasant surprise as a rookie third-rounder, but he's the only tight end of note on the roster. Would a reunion with Anthony Firkser make sense?