Naturally, we spend the NFL draft's three-day weekend focusing on college football players entering the league. It's a time for rookies to shine as they achieve their childhood dreams and enter professional football. Getting to see where first-round picks such as Will Anderson Jr. and Bijan Robinson will begin their careers was both dramatic and exciting.
What we don't discuss much during draft weekend is the impact those new additions will have on players currently on NFL rosters. Outside of a quarterback getting new playmakers, we typically don't have many conversations about what an exciting rookie means for a team's veteran players. Some will have it easier because they have more help. Others will retain their opportunity because their team didn't draft a replacement. Some who were on the precipice of being released or traded will move on because their team found a new solution.
Let's take a step back from the draft and look at the veteran players whose situations were affected by draft decisions. Some are further entrenched than they were before; others might feel like they're standing on shakier ground.
I'll run through the veterans who might be considered winners and losers from the draft, starting with a quarterback who had a very exciting weekend:
draft coverage:
Kiper's draft grades for every team
McShay's best pick for every team
Miller & Reid answer 22 questions
Winner: Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
Jackson finally came to terms on the extension he and the Ravens had been battling over for the past two years. We're still waiting for the exact specifics of his five-year, $260 million deal, but it reportedly has $185 million in some form of guarantees and will surely have more than $100 million fully guaranteed at the time of signing. He is going to take home life-altering money, and after negotiating his own deal, he won't even need to give 3% to an agent.
On top of that, the Ravens further signaled their commitment to a more balanced offense by using the No. 22 overall pick on wideout Zay Flowers. In Jackson's final game before getting injured in 2022, his top three wide receivers in terms of snaps were Demarcus Robinson, Devin Duvernay and DeSean Jackson. Now, if everyone stays healthy, his Week 1 wideouts will include three former first-round picks: Flowers, Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr.
The Ravens have also replaced run-first offensive coordinator Greg Roman with former Georgia playcaller Todd Monken, making him one of the few Georgia products to join the NFL this offseason without becoming a member of the Eagles. The pressure will be on Jackson to deliver as a passer, but with the contract complete, there won't be the same off-field stressors for the league's highest-paid player.
Loser: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Jets
After finally completing his long-rumored move to the Jets, Rodgers has been the toast of the town in New York City, stopping by Madison Square Garden for playoff wins by the Knicks and Rangers. Jets fans rightfully believe they have a superstar at quarterback for the first time since their last move for a longtime Packers signal-caller, when Gang Green traded for Brett Favre before the 2008 season. The Jets and Rodgers should both feel like winners.
In terms of what happened during the draft, though, I don't think Jets general manager Joe Douglas got what he wanted for his new quarterback. In addition to trading a second-rounder and what will likely be a first-round pick in 2024 for Rodgers, the Packers were able to convince Douglas to swap first-round picks, causing the Jets to move down two spots to No. 15 overall. The Steelers then used that swap to jump ahead of the Jets, making a deal with the rival Patriots to move up for left tackle Broderick Jones at No. 14 overall, who was popularly mocked to the Jets throughout April.
Douglas used his first-round pick on edge rusher Will McDonald IV. The Jets used their second-rounder on center Joe Tippmann and their fourth-round selection on tackle Carter Warren, but Douglas wasn't able to add the high-end tackle solution he had hoped.
Right now, the lead tackles for the Jets are 37-year-old Duane Brown and 2020 first-round pick Mekhi Becton, who has played one game over the past two seasons because of injuries. The Jets declined Becton's fifth-year option for 2024, and missing out on a tackle made things even more difficult.
Douglas responded after the draft by dipping back into the well of ex-Packers and signing offensive tackle Billy Turner to a one-year deal for just over $3 million. Turner is a versatile veteran, but he was a cap casualty for the Packers a year ago and missed time with a knee injury last season. The interior of the line should be sound, but there are major questions about whether the tackles will be able to hold up in New York this season.
Winner: Geno Smith, QB, Seahawks
Moving to a former Jets quarterback, Smith had about as smooth of a draft weekend as possible. There was plenty of speculation the Seahawks might consider drafting a long-term replacement for him at No. 5 overall, but after three quarterbacks came off the board in the first four picks, general manager John Schneider & Co. opted to use the pick on cornerback Devon Witherspoon. Doing so increases the chances Smith will be the team's starting quarterback in 2024.
On top of that, the Seahawks landed a new receiver for him in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who somewhat surprisingly fell to Seattle at No. 20. Smith-Njigba instantly becomes the NFL's most exciting third wideout and offers some security if receivers Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf miss time with injuries. For a guy whose top receiver with the Jets was once Jeremy Kerley, Smith is spoiled for choice in Seattle.
Loser: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Titans
On the other side of the coin, Tannehill's draft weekend went in the opposite direction. The Titans used their first-round pick on offensive lineman Peter Skoronski, but despite a crater in their depth chart at wide receiver behind Treylon Burks, they didn't address wide receiver until the seventh round. They also traded up in Round 2 to draft falling quarterback Will Levis at No. 33 overall, marking the second consecutive season where the Titans used a Day 2 pick on a quarterback.
Tannehill is in the final year of his contract, and the team shed several veteran salaries this offseason after hiring new general manager Ran Carthon. Safety Kevin Byard and running back Derrick Henry could also be on the way out this summer. Even if Tannehill does stick around this season, his chances of playing well -- or keeping his job through the end of the season -- diminished further after the draft.
Winner: Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Raiders
Garoppolo is another quarterback whose role with the team over the next couple of seasons might have been compromised by a first-round pick at quarterback, but the Raiders resisted the urge to draft Will Levis at No. 7 overall. When they traded up with the Colts in the second round, they used the No. 35 pick to land tight end Michael Mayer, then added another wide receiver in Round 3 with Tre Tucker.
I'm not sure the best things for the Raiders as an organization included moving up for a tight end and using a Day 2 pick on another wide receiver, but it's certainly going to make their new quarterback's life easier. Garoppolo won't have the same breadth or quality of options he had last year in San Francisco, but assuming the Raiders bring back Josh Jacobs on his franchise tag, Jimmy G won't be far off.
And while the Raiders traded up again to grab quarterback Aidan O'Connell with the final pick of the fourth round, O'Connell is more of a long-term backup prospect than a serious threat to Garoppolo over the next two seasons.
Winner: Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings
Cousins is yet another one of the quarterbacks who might have been concerned about his short- and long-term future with his organization. The longtime Vikings starter is a free agent after the 2023 season, and the regime that originally signed him is no longer in the building. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah added a year to his contract last offseason to create cap space. In March, though, the team did a restructure with void years only to open up space.
A trade to the 49ers didn't make financial sense for the other side, so Cousins was always going to be on the 2023 roster. If the Vikings had traded for Trey Lance or used their first-round pick on a quarterback, though, there was a decent chance Cousins wouldn't finish the season as the starter.
Minnesota made it through most of the weekend without adding real competition for him before eventually using a fifth-round pick on 25-year-old Jaren Hall, who doesn't project to be an NFL starter. As a result, Cousins should be assured of starting through the entirety of the 2023 season. If he can help the Vikings stave off what is widely expected to be a decline driven by their record in one-score games regressing toward the mean, he might even be the guy in 2024 and beyond.
Loser: David Montgomery, RB, Lions
After four solid seasons with the Bears, Montgomery hit free agency and landed a midtier deal with the Lions. He signed a three-year, $18 million contract, which guaranteed him $8.75 million upfront -- $3 million of his $5.25 million base salary in 2024 is guaranteed now, with the rest firming up next March. The Lions moved on from running back Jamaal Williams, so it looked like Montgomery would be the lead back in a rotation alongside oft-injured speedster D'Andre Swift.
All of that made sense until the Lions took Jahmyr Gibbs with the No. 12 overall pick. General manager Brad Holmes eventually traded Swift to the Eagles -- Gibbs projects to take over his role to start the season -- but Detroit didn't use the 12th pick on a back to have him touch the ball 10 times per game. Gibbs is sure to take over as the primary back as the season goes along, and there's a much greater chance now that Montgomery doesn't see that remaining $2.25 million on his deal in 2024.
Loser: Tyler Allgeier, RB, Falcons
If Montgomery was blindsided, imagine how Allgeier felt! The Falcons seemed to land on a successful running back out of nowhere in coach Arthur Smith's first season by promoting Cordarrelle Patterson into the role and unlocking an 11-touchdown campaign out of the legendary returner.
Last season, with Patterson in and out of the lineup, Allgeier took over as a rookie fifth-rounder and ran for 1,035 yards. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry and generated 154 rush yards over expectation (RYOE). The only running backs who averaged more RYOE per carry over 200 or more attempts were Nick Chubb, Travis Etienne and D'Onta Foreman. He looked like a low-cost success story for a team with needs all over their roster.
With the No. 8 overall pick in the draft, the Falcons responded to two years of finding running backs out of nowhere by using a premium pick on star Bijan Robinson. Robinson is likely to excel in Atlanta, and Smith will move his new playmaker around the formation here and there, but it's hard to paint this as anything but a disappointment for Allgeier. After proving he deserved the lead back role as a rookie, he will inevitably lose significant time in 2023.
Winner: Najee Harris, RB, Steelers
One back who hasn't impressed after being drafted in the first round is Harris, who has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over his first two seasons. A middling offensive line hasn't helped, but he has generated minus-129 RYOE over that stretch, suggesting that an average back with the same blocking would have been more productive. Jaylen Warren, Harris' backup a year ago, posted 31 RYOE across 77 carries.
There were rumors the Steelers might consider using a draft pick on a runner to push Harris this season, but new general manager Omar Khan didn't select one. Instead, Khan moved up in the first round to take tackle Broderick Jones, who is expected to immediately step in on Kenny Pickett's blindside and push overmatched 2022 starter Dan Moore into a rotational role.
With guard Isaac Seumalo joining from the Eagles in free agency, Harris will have a much better chance of delivering on lofty expectations in what could be a make-or-break 2023 campaign.
Winner: Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys
Pollard was another veteran back who might have been preparing for competition after this draft. After an impressive 2021 season led to a larger role and a national breakout in 2022, his season ended unexpectedly with an ankle injury during the postseason. The Cowboys cut longtime starter Ezekiel Elliott and used the franchise tag to retain Pollard, but with a hole in their rotation and uncertainty about his readiness for 2023, a move for someone at back in the first two rounds would hardly have surprised Cowboys fans.
Instead, the Cowboys didn't use a pick on a running back until the sixth round, when they picked Deuce Vaughn. Pollard's primary competition still appears to be former Bucs and Chiefs back Ronald Jones, who doesn't offer any threat as a receiver and barely played during his year in Kansas City. Dallas could still add a veteran, but Pollard's path to the majority of work in 2023 and a possible long-term extension appears clear.
Winner: Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers
White is another back who looked like his path toward a more significant workload could be blocked by a draft pick, but he skated through the draft window without competition. The Buccaneers did not use any of their picks on a back, leaving him to compete with Chase Edmonds, Ke'Shawn Vaughn and Patrick Laird for starting duties.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucs added a veteran before the season. I've mooted a link between Tampa and Ezekiel Elliott, whose skill set would complement White's and allow the second-year back to play the Tony Pollard role in Tampa. Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook could also be cut candidates in the months to come.
With Tampa strapped for cap space and likely to pursue veterans at more expensive positions if they become available, though, White's most likely competition for starting time would have been from a draft pick.
Losers: Donovan Peoples-Jones and Anthony Schwartz, WRs, Browns
General manager Andrew Berry & Co. keep adding players to their receiving corps. After acquiring Elijah Moore and blocking 2022 third-round pick David Bell's path to a starting job, the Browns used their first selection in this draft on another third-round wideout: Cedric Tillman. The 6-foot-3 Tillman should stick outside, with the Browns hoping his frame and 86th-percentile hand size give quarterback Deshaun Watson an inviting target on downfield throws and contested catches.
In the process, Tillman is expected to take snaps away from the outside receivers in Cleveland who aren't Amari Cooper. Peoples-Jones was a starter last season and is entering his contract year, while Schwartz is yet another third-round pick who hasn't been able to get untracked in a Browns uniform. Schwartz has never been able to deliver on his potential as a speed threat and could be a cut candidate this offseason, while the arrival of Tillman suggests Peoples-Jones' future will be with another organization in 2024.
Winner: Tyquan Thornton, WR, Patriots
Thornton looks to be heading toward more meaningful snaps. Despite suggestions the Patriots would look to target a wide receiver in Round 1, coach Bill Belichick passed on Jaxon Smith-Njigba to select cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Belichick didn't draft a wideout until Round 6, when he used a pair of selections on Kayshon Boutte and Demario Douglas.
As the speediest wide receiver on New England's roster, Thornton will undoubtedly have a role as the designated deep threat. There's still some veteran flotsam in the way of every-down work, most notably DeVante Parker, whose $5.7 million base salary is not guaranteed. Kendrick Bourne, who the organization seemed to sour on in 2022, is also out of guaranteed money. If the Pats cut either player in camp, Thornton would be in line to benefit.
Loser: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Broncos
It's tough to parse exactly how coach Sean Payton views his wide receiver depth chart. He inherited a group with Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick, with the latter coming off a torn ACL. That would seemingly be enough for most NFL offenses, but even with limited draft capital, the Broncos still felt strongly enough about Marvin Mims to move up into the last spot of the second round and take him.
From his time in New Orleans, we know Payton typically found a primary role for a bigger receiver to work the middle of the field. That player was initially Marques Colston before he gave way to Jimmy Graham and then Michael Thomas. Of the players on Denver's depth chart, it would seem likely Sutton, Patrick or tight end Greg Dulcich, all of whom are 6-4, would be in line to play that role.
The 5-11 Mims is more plausibly going to be a downfield burner, which leaves Jeudy between two worlds. The Broncos picked up his fifth-year option, but with a desperate need for draft capital after trading for Payton and Russell Wilson and seemingly too many wide receivers to go around, would dealing Jeudy help Denver? I'm not sure he could net a first-round pick with two years left to go on his deal, but even a second-rounder in 2024 would help Payton retool his roster in the years to come.
Winner: Braxton Jones, OT, Bears
While Jones was a left tackle during his college career at Southern Utah, few expected the 2022 fifth-round pick to be an instant starter at that position during his rookie NFL season. The only other fifth-round pick to start most of his rookie season at left tackle was Everett Lindsay with the Vikings in 1993. (The only other player drafted after Round 5 to pull it off over that same timeframe was sixth-rounder Jamaree Salyer, who filled in ably for Rashawn Slater last season with the Chargers.) Jones wasn't great on the blindside, but he also wasn't the worst lineman the Bears ran out last season, either.
Having taken on the left tackle spot after roster shuffling, it seemed likely the Bears would add someone to play the position and move Jones somewhere else along the line. Instead, general manager Ryan Poles used his top pick in this draft on Tennessee tackle Darnell Wright, who broke out as a senior only after moving to the right side. The Bears are expected to keep Wright on that side, which would give Jones another year to prove himself as a left tackle. Given the financial benefits of sticking on that side, landing in Chicago and staving off the competition could be extremely lucrative for him.
Loser: Cam Robinson, OT, Jaguars
One established tackle who didn't have a great weekend was the guy who protected Trevor Lawrence's blindside most of last season in Jacksonville. Robinson went down with a knee injury in December, and while he was expected to return for Week 1, the former franchise-tagged player was slapped with a six-game PED suspension last week. The suspension will cost him a minimum of $5.3 million and likely voids the guarantees on his $16 million base salary in 2023, meaning the Jags could move on from him altogether without owing any more of his three-year, $54 million extension.
General manager Trent Baalke and the Jags signaled their displeasure by using a first-round pick on tackle Anton Harrison. Walker Little had been expected to take over for the departed Jawaan Taylor, but after the suspension, Little's now projected to move to the left side and fill in for Robinson during his absence. Harrison is projected to become the full-time right tackle, so if Little holds his own in camp, Robinson might be out of a job altogether.
Loser: Jonah Williams, OT, Bengals
Many of the players on this list didn't benefit in the draft because their team drafted competition for them on the roster. Williams might be upset because the Bengals didn't land a tackle. He requested a trade in March after the Bengals signed Orlando Brown Jr., a move that forced the former left tackle to move to the right side and compete with La'el Collins for starting work. As a player entering his fifth-year option season, it was no surprise Williams balked at moving to a less-lucrative position in a contract year.
The Bengals could have moved him during the draft for picks if they had landed a right tackle of the future, but they used their early-round selections to supplement a defense in the middle of retooling. Williams might see competition from Collins, but Collins underwent knee surgery in January and could be a cap casualty. As it stands, it seems more likely Williams will be spending his 2023 in Cincinnati at right tackle.
Loser: Budda Baker, S, Cardinals
Baker is another player with a public trade request who reportedly wants to either become the league's highest-paid safety or be traded to a team willing to accommodate that request. With two years and $27.3 million left on his deal, the Cardinals don't have a significant motivation to redo his contract, and new general manager Monti Ossenfort inherited a dismal cap situation from former GM Steve Keim. Baker is a great safety, but the best chance of a trade was going to involve him being dealt for draft picks over the past week.
Instead, the draft came and went without a deal for the five-time Pro Bowler. The Cardinals also didn't take a safety during the draft, leaving them without a replacement for Baker. Ossenfort could try to land 2024 picks for him in a trade, but all signs seem to point toward one more season in Arizona.