As Frank Reich met the media after Sunday's 26-3 loss to the New England Patriots, a game during which the Indianapolis Colts went 0-for-14 on third-down conversion attempts, the veteran coach seemed resigned to his fate.
"The offensive performance, that's why I was brought here," Reich said. "That's my responsibility ... it starts with me. I have to do a better job getting the guys ready to play and putting guys in position to win and having answers when we face problems."
Those problems will now be up to the next coach to solve after Reich was fired Monday. He had a 40-33-1 record in four-plus seasons in Indianapolis and a 1-2 mark in two postseason appearances.
Former Colts offensive lineman Jeff Saturday will transition from ESPN analyst to interim head coach.
Reich had established himself as a creative offensive coach, one who helped guide the Philadelphia Eagles to the 2017 Super Bowl title. But the Colts' offense has been a disaster this season, currently ranking 27th in total yards per game, despite featuring last season's rushing champion in Jonathan Taylor and after trading for quarterback Matt Ryan in the offseason.
Ryan committed 12 turnovers, including nine interceptions, in seven games before being benched in Week 8. Taylor, meanwhile, has been banged up and ranks 21st with 462 yards and one touchdown. Neither was helped by an offensive line that's the highest paid in the league yet has struggled all season.
Indianapolis entered the season with Super Bowl aspirations. ESPN's Football Power Index gave the Colts a 66.9% chance of making the playoffs heading into the season, the sixth highest in the NFL. Their current chance, according to FPI, is 1.1%, the fifth lowest. In the preseason, Indy had a 7.8% chance to finish atop the AFC. Now? It has a 7.1% chance to have the No. 1 draft pick.
ESPN Colts reporter Stephen Holder, NFL insider Dan Graziano and NFL draft analyst Matt Miller break down what went wrong and what's next in Indy, including what to expect in next year's draft.
Why make the decision now, and how did they get here?
Holder: Owner Jim Irsay has never fired a head coach in season, so his decision here was certainly notable. Why did he do it? There was an undeniable downward trajectory with the Colts, particularly on offense. Whereas Reich has a well-established track record of rallying his teams after slow starts, there was no indication that was going to happen in 2022.
The Colts had their lowest offensive output (121 yards) in Sunday's loss to the Patriots, and Reich's motivational tactics, once a strength of his, have never seemed less effective.
When recent changes at quarterback -- from Ryan to Sam Ehlinger (ownership was also involved in that decision) -- and at offensive coordinator -- with the firing of Marcus Brady -- did not achieve improved results, Irsay's frustration likely grew. He emerged from the locker room after Sunday's loss in silence, declining to address questions from assembled reporters.
What Irsay saw on Sunday was a continuation of what the Colts have been experiencing since the end of last season, when losses in Weeks 17 and 18 eliminated them from the playoffs after they were considered among the likeliest teams to make the postseason.
Why did the Matt Ryan experiment fail so miserably?
Holder: The goal in trading for Ryan, the Falcons great who spent 14 seasons in Atlanta, was to make him an accessory to an already strong offense. The idea was the 37-year-old could distribute the ball to playmakers such as Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. while protected by an effective and proven offensive line.
But the vision never materialized. The Colts' running game has never been worse in Reich's five seasons. The offensive line is a shell of the powerful unit it once was. And while Pittman and rookie receiver Alec Pierce have shown great promise as a duo, the lack of pass protection limited their potential impact. All of this left Ryan to try and do way too much on his own, resulting in a Grade 2 shoulder separation in Week 7 that opened the door to the Colts promoting Ehlinger to starter.
The question now is how did the Colts get this so wrong. Team officials have been stunned by the ineffectiveness of the offensive line. But perhaps they shouldn't have been, given last season's decline and their decision to wing it at left tackle and right guard with players (Matt Pryor and Danny Pinter, respectively) who had never been starters at those positions.
How much of the quarterback revolving door has been Reich's fault?
Holder: Reich can't be blamed for Andrew Luck's decision to retire just prior to Reich's second season in 2019. But he had to know that decision would create a sea change in his tenure as the head coach. He didn't know at that time to what extent. As it turns out, it defined much of his stint in Indianapolis, with the Colts annually chasing their next move at the game's most important position.
As for Reich's culpability in the Colts' approach to the quarterback position, he was certainly heavily involved. His prior relationship with Philip Rivers drove the decision to bring in the veteran from the Los Angeles Chargers in 2020. But that season resulted in an 11-5 record and a playoff appearance, considered by most in the organization to be a success.
But Rivers' decision to retire after one year in Indy put the Colts in a more desperate position, leading to them pulling off the much-discussed trade with the Eagles for Carson Wentz. That ended infamously, with Wentz traded to Washington after one season. Reich was the driving force in acquiring Wentz, given their time together in Philadelphia.
But in a broader sense, general manager Chris Ballard is mostly responsible for the state of the quarterback situation. It was his reluctance to chase a young quarterback that left the Colts sifting through the veteran quarterback market.
What's the temperature in the locker room?
Holder: There has been a great deal of whiplash in the locker room of late, given the recent moves. The quarterback change, in particular, stunned players. So, too, did the firing of Brady. By the time Reich was dismissed, there likely was a resignation that changes were coming. Veterans had been telling younger players to govern themselves appropriately as the roster would likely be impacted by the changes in leadership.
"You're being evaluated each and every day," All-Pro defensive tackle DeForest Buckner imparted on younger teammates.
But there is a fair amount of frustration in the locker room even though players are likely becoming numb to the changes. After Sunday's loss, receiver Parris Campbell, one of the more thoughtful veterans on the team, was at a loss.
"All these questions," he said, "I really don't have an answer to, which I'm sorry for."
There also has been a difference in the experiences of players on offense and defense. The Colts' defense has been quite good this season, limiting the Patriots to a season-low 203 yards on Sunday -- the latest in a series of strong performances. But the offense has been historically poor, creating what at times has been an awkward situation.
Said guard Quenton Nelson: "Going from week to week hearing the defensive players saying, 'Hey, we've got your back, we've got your back,' for what seems like every week, [and] holding teams to field goals and getting turnovers, you just feel like s--- not helping them out and having their back, too."
Why pick Jeff Saturday as the interim head coach?
Holder: During last year's draft meetings, Ballard had a lengthy meeting with Saturday, who was working for ESPN, and Ballard emerged thoroughly impressed. Ballard, according to a source, extolled Saturday's "crazy" smarts and said he believed he had the potential to be an NFL head coach, if he wished.
Did that plant the seed that led to Monday's stunning decision? That's unclear, but it potentially speaks to how Saturday was viewed inside the organization. We can also deduce that Irsay thinks very highly of Saturday, a former Colts great who is in the team's Ring of Honor and remains close to the team.
Irsay has always loved having former players involved in different capacities. Former Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne is in his first season as the team's wide receivers coach. Irsay also has discussed a role in the front office with Colts Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning, although nothing materialized.
But the move to Saturday is bold, despite his ties to the team. He has no NFL coaching experience. And the Colts do not have a coach with any NFL playcalling history, leaving them with a massive hole on their staff in the middle of the season.
Who are some candidates the Colts should interview?
Graziano: Well, first of all, they named my friend and one of my favorite colleagues their interim head coach, so a big part of me hopes he goes 8-0 and keeps the job with a fat new contract. But this question kind of assumes this season can't be salvaged and that they go with a completely new face when it's over. If that's the case, I'd look out for Shane Steichen, who's the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia under former Colts OC Nick Sirianni; and Mike Kafka, who's the Giants offensive coordinator after spending the previous five years apprenticing under Andy Reid in Kansas City.
I'd also keep an eye on the Tennessee Titans' coaching staff, where defensive coordinator Shane Bowen is having a big year coaching under Mike Vrabel. Irsay considered Vrabel five years ago before settling on Josh McDaniels (who then later backed out of the job, leading the Colts to hire Reich post-Super Bowl), and the success the Titans have had against the Colts has likely strengthened Irsay's opinion of Vrabel, and by extension, his assistant coaches.
The last name I'll throw out there is Pep Hamilton, the Texans' offensive coordinator who was Indy's OC from 2013 to '15. The key to everything about the Colts in 2023 and beyond will be finding a permanent solution to the quarterback problem, so I would expect Irsay to take a long look at coaching candidates with strong records of working with quarterbacks.
What kind of shape is Indy in moving forward, including with the salary cap?
Graziano: The Ryan contract will hurt because he's guaranteed $12 million of his salary next year, and the Colts will carry $18 million in dead money if they cut him. He could cut them a break by retiring, but they'll have to wear some dead money on that deal regardless.
We don't know what the 2023 salary cap will be, but assuming it comes in around the $225 million-to-$228 million range that people seem to be expecting, the Colts should have about $35 million or so in cap space, which should put them in the top half of the league in that department.
The Quenton Nelson and Shaq Leonard deals are big drags on the cap, and if they needed some room, they could restructure those, but those are supposed to be two of their best players, so it shouldn't be a problem to pay them. The Colts don't have a ton of must-sign free agents of their own, so that's good. But they do have to find not only a quarterback but a left tackle at some point here, and both of those positions are expensive.
The roster is in decent shape if they can get Taylor healthy, fix the line and find a quarterback. But those are big ifs, especially the last two, and it's hard to really assess what kind of long-term shape the Colts' roster is in until we see what they do this offseason at the QB position.
What's the Colts' draft situation next year, and will they take a QB?
Miller: The Colts have one of the NFL's worst offensive lines and have consistently misplayed the quarterback situation since the surprise retirement of Luck. If Ballard is able to save his job and salvage the roster, he'll have to focus first and foremost on finding a quarterback who is more than a one-year solution.
ESPN's Football Power Index currently projects Indy to land the No. 5 overall pick in April, which could mean the Colts are on the outside looking in on premier QB prospects Bryce Young (Alabama), C.J. Stroud (Ohio State) and Will Levis (Kentucky). There's plenty of time before the draft order is set, but they could end up packaging future draft capital to move up the board -- Indianapolis has eight total picks in 2023 -- or even looking to draft a signal-caller in Round 2. Left tackle is the team's clear-cut No. 2 need and could also be a first- or second-round target.
What's next?
Holder: The Colts presumably will view the coming months as an audition for Saturday. They have nothing to judge him by given his lack of NFL coaching experience, so he has an opportunity to establish a reputation in the team's final nine games.
Even if the Colts decide they want Saturday to be their full-time coach, however, they'll still have to conduct a coaching search and fulfill requirements of the Rooney Rule.
And if the team is not considering Saturday as a permanent replacement, then it can begin its coaching search before the other inevitable openings are created when other clubs fire coaches at the end of the season.
But the biggest questions for the Colts might be within their roster, not the coaching ranks. A team that not long ago was seen as one of the more complete rosters in the league now has major deficiencies at critical spots, such as the offensive line. With the highest-paid line in the NFL, the Colts will need to reevaluate expenditures at that position.
Above all, however, the Colts need to find a way forward at quarterback. Ehlinger has not shown any clear potential to be the long-term starter in his two games, and the four-year search for Luck's permanent successor has gone on entirely too long. Without a solution, the new coach will face an uphill climb -- whomever it is.